Dallas Round-Up: Cowboys Prepare for Regular Season | Ailing Rangers Slumping

NFL betting players are gearing up for the first week of the regular season, and Week 1 sees the Dallas Cowboys on the road against a bitter NFC East rival. In Major League Baseball action, the Texas Rangers are in the midst of a slide, and they may be losing their MVP candidate at the worst possible time.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys begin their regular season at FedEx Field, where they’ll take on a revamped Washington team. The Cowboys were 3-2 in the preseason, but the offense didn’t look sharp at all, and owner Jerry Jones is looking for them to pick up as the Cowboys aim to be the first team in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl when their stadium is hosting it. Rookie receiver Dez Bryant, who NCAA football betting players will remember from his time at Oklahoma State before he was suspended, will be ready after sitting out the preseason with an ankle sprain. Bryant was supposed to challenge Roy Williams for the other spot opposite Miles Austin, but he’s behind in game action now, so look for the Cowboys to bring him along slowly. The Cowboys are actually a 3.5-point favorite on the road on Sunday night, and they’ve won three in a row against the Redskins, including two on the road.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers’ MLB betting odds are going downhill slowly as they had lost five in a row ahead of Wednesday’s game in Toronto, and even though they have a healthy seven-game lead in the American League West, that’s about the only thing that is healthy in Texas. Josh Hamilton has a rib injury that will sideline him indefinitely, and the Rangers are just hoping that their Triple Crown threat will be back for the postseason. Ace Cliff Lee had been struggling anyway, but he has a bad back and had to miss his last start. This doesn’t leave the Rangers in a very good position as they look to shake out of their slump, but they’re going to have to figure something out because after they finish their four-game set in Toronto (of which they lost the first two games), the Rangers then head home to take on the New York Yankees, who have baseball’s best record. The Rangers are hoping that Lee will be ready for the series finale on Sunday, but he’s penciled in. Next week, the Rangers have a quick two-game set at home with the Detroit, and a day off after the Yankees’ series is just what they need. If the Rangers have any more serious injuries, you’ll see their online sports betting odds fall very quickly.

NFL Week 1: Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins

The Dallas Cowboys will face the new look Washington Redskins, who now have Mike Shanahan at the helm. However Mike Shanahan seems to have adopted the Dan Snyder’s mentality of only signing players who are past their prime. If this was 2005 the Redskins would have one of the best offenses in the league, but it is 2010. The Redskins acquired Donovon McNabb from the Eagles via trade this offseason, and Donavan is already nursing an injury.

On the other hand you have our beloved Cowboys who looked pathetic in the preseason, squandering pretty much all of their scoring opportunities. Hopefully they were just being conservative in the preseason, however last years stats say otherwise. Think about this, the Cowboys ranked 2nd right behind the Saints in yards per game with just under 400. However when you look at points per game the Saints maintain the #1 spot with 31 points per game, the Cowboys on the other hand ranked #14 with 22.6 points per game. The offense was inefficient last year, and it looks inefficient this year. I think Seth Eisenburg’s quote that “If it looks like $h@t, smells like $h@t, and feels like $h@t, you don’t have to actually eat it to know it’s $h@t.” applies here. Don’t get me wrong I think the Cowboys are still going to win some games, I just question keeping Jason Garrett around if the offense is so inefficient it needs almost 200 yards per 7 points.

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Dallas Cowboys Update: Crayton Finally Moved

Dallas Cowboys Update: Crayton Finally Moved

In a move that the betting world was expecting for some time, the Dallas Cowboys moved wide receiver Patrick Crayton. It was originally thought that the Cowboys       would simply cut Crayton prior to the start of the regular season, but in a move of respect the Cowboys traded Crayton to the San Diego Chargers.

The NFL betting experts are calling San Diego a Super Bowl contender this year, and with the status of superstar receiver Vincent Jackson up in the air, acquiring Crayton makes sense for the Chargers. If Jackson does come back this season for the Chargers, then San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers will have two good targets to throw to.

The move helps solidify the places of rookie receivers Dez Bryant and Kevin Ogletree on the Cowboys’ roster. Bryant was a huge factor in the NCAA football betting that went on last season, and now that he is cleared to play in the opening game against the Washington Redskins, Bryant looks to make an impact at the pro level as well. Ogletree is a developing rookie that is making a name for himself on special teams.

The Cowboys look to be beaten up on the offensive line as they enter the opening week of the season. Most notable is the injury to starting right tackle Marc Colombo who has been sidelined for weeks with a bad knee. Also on the shelf is guard Kyle Kosier who has been fighting a knee injury all training camp.

Neither offensive lineman practiced early this week, and Colombo’s status for the opening game has been in doubt for at least two weeks. Without two of their starting five offensive linemen in place for the season opener, and the guard spot left open by the release of Flozell Adams still a sore spot for the Cowboys, that could leave a huge door open for the Washington Redskins on opening day.

The football betting world is familiar with final cut-down day in the NFL preseason. It is the single most brutal day in training camp as teams have to cut down from 75 players to 53 in one day. One of the players the Cowboys let go was nose tackle Junior Saivii. Some observers of the team thought Saivii was a lock to make the team because he is the only other true nose tackle on the team besides starter Jay Ratliff. As Ratliff’s back-up last season, Saivii would come in on third down and special teams plays to help give Ratliff a rest. But with Saivii gone, the Cowboys now need to get creative.

Defensive lineman Marcus Spears could be called in to play nose tackle from time to time as well as rookie Josh Brent. Spears has very little experience at nose tackle and almost none at the pro level. If Ratliff gets injured this season, it is doubtful that the Cowboys would turn the nose tackle position over to Brent, or permanently move Spears to the middle. In that scenario, Saivii could find himself back on the Cowboys roster playing nose tackle.

Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down: Justin Forsett, Tony Romo, and more

Stock up/stock down…it’s a fantasy sports article idea almost as old as the Prodigy internet service (which, by the way, served as my introduction to fantasy baseball a looooong time ago). What it may lack in originality though, it more than makes up for usefulness and accessibility.

That’s why I’m going to make it a staple of our weekly fantasy football coverage here at MSF Fantasy Sports.

This morning, in the first edition of Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down, I’ll run through a list of players whose stock is either rising or falling in my eyes due to a change in workload, injury concerns, matchups, or just a shift in my general trust level with them.

Remember: your fantasy football team is a lot like a relationship. (Huh?) If you don’t trust your significant other, it will lead to instability and turmoil in your relationship. If you don’t trust your starters and your bench players, instability and turmoil will similarly plague your fantasy football team.

And yes, I just went there for a comparison.

Who cares. Let’s talk names.

Stock WAY Up; Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle

In Saturday’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I told you that the Seattle backfield was one to keep an eye on. If you paid heed to my advice, you now know that Forsett has since been named the starter.

Why is this important? There were four games last year in which Forsett got 10 or more carries. Look at his output in those four games:

• 17 carries, 123 yards, TD
• 22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD
• 14 carries, 70 yards
• 10 carries, 74 yards

Let’s call him the NFC version of Jerome Harrison.

Some guys just produce every time they get an opportunity. Forsett, like Harrison, has proven to be one of those guys. In PPR leagues, he is a bona fide #2 back right now (he had 41 catches for 350 yards last year). In standard leagues he is a great flex option and a definite #3 RB who has the potential to become a #2, a la Harrison last year.

If Forsett is somehow available in your league, stop reading this post RIGHT NOW and go pick him up. He has a tough matchup in Week 1 against San Francisco, but he’ll still do enough to bring value. Get him in your lineup.

Stock Down: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

I live in Dallas, so you have to take this one with the caveat that my judgment could be clouded by listening to all of the nattering nabobs of negativity who break down the Cowboys on the radio. Still, I think there are concerns that Romo can live up to the preseason hype that has him lumped in with other 2nd tier QBs like Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady.

Among my reasons for concern:

• I don’t fully trust that Miles Austin is a #1 receiver
• I certainly don’t trust Romo’s 2nd and 3rd options yet, which are rookie Dez Bryant and veteran suckfest Roy Williams.
• I don’t trust that the Cowboys running game will be a consistent force until Tashard Choice is featured more, and who knows when that will be.
• The Cowboys have serious offensive line issues.

Now look, I’m not saying drop Romo. I’m not even saying don’t start him if your backup is, say, Matthew Stafford. This is a guy who has three straight years of a QB rating of 91.4 or better, and whose TD production is 36-26-26 over that span. Romo will have a good season.

But…I kept him in one league thinking there was a chance Romo could have a great season, and that he might even be able to challenge for upper tier status this year. He still could, but I also think that enough warning signs accumulated during training camp that suggest Romo could struggle, especially early.

Stock Up: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore

Want a name of a QB who was drafted below Romo in most drafts but could exceed him in value? Try Joe Flacco, who had the productive TJ Houshmandzadeh added to a stable of receivers that already included Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason.

What this trio lacks in youth they more than make up for in veteran savvy, hands, and reliability. They aren’t going to beat you deep, but they will provide option after option for Flacco in the red zone. That’s a very good thing.

Stock Down: Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona

Having watched Derek Anderson play for three years in Cleveland, I know what he is and what he is not. Anderson has a rocket arm and is a guy who will take chances downfield, especially to his #1 target. This means Larry Fitzgerald owners can exhale a bit. Anderson is not, however, a patient nor accurate quarterback, which means that Steve Breaston and Early Doucet could suffer.

Stock Down: Randy Moss, WR, New England; Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami; Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo

This one is simple: Darrelle Revis is back. We know what he did to #1 receivers last year and it wasn’t pretty.

These three guys have to face Revis twice in 2010. While they all should be solid plays in their other 14 matchups (except for Evans, whose production will be up and down with his QB) the presence of Revis means you at least have to think about sitting them during their two Jets weeks.

With Moss and Marshall, two of the best receivers in the game, you probably don’t ever sit them, but their stock does take a bit of a hit because we can now expect lesser numbers in two of their games this year.

Stock Up: Patrick Crayton, WR, San Diego

He was lost in the shuffle in Dallas so nothing was better for him than being shipped out of town. The bonus is that he went to a WR-starved team with a very good QB who will be able to take advantage of Crayton’s skills, which are his precise route-running and reliable hands.

As our buddy Kurt from PFI pointed out, Crayton is just a few years removed from a 1,000-yard season when he was the #2 receiver in Dallas. He’ll be the #2 in San Diego and could post similar numbers this year.

Waiver Wire Steals: Chris Chambers and Patrick Crayton

Week 1 may seem too early to be reading articles on the waiver wire and to be looking for potential steals and sleepers. I mean, no actual games have been played yet, right?

This is true if you are looking at your fantasy football season on a week-to-week basis and not over the long haul of an entire season.

ProFootballinsight takes a look at a few players heading into Week 1 who can contribute on your roster all season long.

Waiver Wire Steal: Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Did everyone forget what Chris Chambers accomplished last season after joining the Kansas City Chiefs? Chambers filled in nicely for Dwayne Bowe (as he served a four game suspension) by posting stats similar to his more youthful years.

In only 9 games last season, Chris reeled in 36 receptions for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns.  With a full 16 games, at that pace Chambers would have eclipsed 1,000 yards with ease.

Chambers still currently holds a starting WR spot with the Chiefs, and the addition of Dexter McCluster will only make the Chiefs’ offense more explosive, which in turn will free up Chambers from drawing top defensive back coverage.

The fact that he is heading into his second year with the teams and had his first offseason with Matt Cassel will only add to Chambers’ value, both in fantasy and real life, as he and the KC offense become more familiar with eachother.

Chris Chambers showed last year that he can clearly carry the Chiefs’ passing game from the receiving aspect.  In case you were wondering, Chambers is available on the waiver wire in nearly 90% of all fantasy leagues.

I look for Chambers to contribute on a regular basis in 2010.

Waiver Wire Steal: Patrick Crayton, WR, San Diego Chargers

Patrick Crayton is a name that was buried near the bottom of the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver depth chart only a few days ago.  There was no mention of Crayton as a player who could contribute in any way, shape, or form to a fantasy team on any level, or to the Cowboys for that matter.

It is amazing what a few days and a new location can do for your fantasy value.

For More on Crayton and other Week 1 Waiver Wire Steals, Click Here

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Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight.net

* – Chris Chambers photo credit: Arrowhead Addict

Kurt@profootballinsight.net

Super Sleeper Pick: Max Hall, QB, Arizona

First off, I find it hilarious that the talking heads on television are still waiting for the Cardinals to come to Kurt Warner’s house and drag him kicking and screaming out of retirement.

It’s not happening, and Warner can’t possibly make it any more clear.

But now that Matt Leinart has been cut, and Derek Anderson is still, well, Derek Anderson, an undrafted rookie free agent named Max Hall has positioned himself to be a potential sleeper at the QB position in 2010.

It’s no surprise that Matt Leinart was a failure in his last chance to seize the Cardinals starting QB job. Warner himself was thought of as a stopgap when he came to the Cards in 2005, and conventional wisdom had him merely keeping the seat warm, before being named the starter the first time Leinart spit the bit early in ’07.

The amazing thing about the Leinart’s career path was how San Francisco 49ers fans were bent when he did not declare for the 2005 NFL Draft, where he was projected as the #1 overall choice. The Niners wound up taking Alex Smith that year, bypassing a kid that was playing locally at Cal the previous fall and completing 23 consecutive passes against the vaunted USC Trojans in the LA Coliseum. Maybe that day the NFL draftniks should have figured out who the top QB prospect should had been.

Leinart ends up slipping to the tenth overall pick in the 2006 Draft, and it turns out AZ may have been better served with Jay Cutler (the #11 overall pick) if they were willing to endure that headache. Leinart’s legacy will likely be simply of someone who fared much better at the NCAA than NFL level. Whether it’s his personality or work ethic or getting the respect of teammates, Leinart apparently fell short in those areas that are hard to measure before draft day.

I was not high on Leinart in fantasy football turns going into this season. And the Cardinals hedged their bets by getting Derek Anderson as a free agent and drafting Jon Skelton in the fifth round of this year’s draft. My original projection was that it would be Week 3 when coach Ken Whisenhunt would make his final decision to name Anderson as the starter, which would not be a tasty thought to AZ fans or fantasy owners of Larry Fitzgerald.

Fortunately, though – I don’t see Anderson lasting long into the season.

The Cardinals decided to give a free agent offer to undrafted rookie and local product product Max Hall, who has emerged as the Cardinals’ best QB period during camp, and suddenly could end up being the franchise’s future.

The quick Bio Blast on Max. Nephew of former Dallas Cowboy Danny White. Originally went to Arizona State, eventually transferred to BYU, where he had a nice three-year career in the Mountain West Conference and won some big games vs. the likes of UCLA and Oklahoma. Kind of a Danny Ainge 2.0, it was said that one practice in Provo had to be halted after Max got into three fights on the field. Also went on a Brandon Phillips routine calling out the University of Utah program after a BYU/Utah clash (Utah fans allegedly doused Max’s folks). Also called out Arizona Wildcat fans for the same reason, but more recently backed off (likely because U of A people buy Cardinals tickets too).

The Cardinals coaching staff has raved about Hall, mentioning that he has some ‘Kurt Warner’ qualities. From mini-camp on, it’s been said that Hall has shown that he has all the NFL throws, and more importantly, can command the respect of his teammates. In games, Max has been equally impressive, going 7-9 for 126 yards passing (plus rushing TD) in the Cards pre-season finale. Meanwhile Anderson, Leinart, and Skelton had 61 passing yards combined. It was enough to convince the coaching staff to cut their losses with Leinart and name Hall as the #2 QB going into the season, that’s #2 and fast closing in on #1.

So why would Hall go un-selected on Draft Day??? A quick look at the player profile gives a good clue.

Height: 6’1”

Actually, it’s said that Hall is only a shade over 6 feet (6′ 1/4”), by comparison Leinart is 6’5” and Derek Anderson 6’6”. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers in 6’2”, Favre also 6’2”, Tony Romo 6’2” Drew Brees 6′ even. One of these days scouts are going to figure out that height is over-rated.

It isn’t a matter of if but when Hall gets the starting job, and I figure it shouldn’t be long. Rookies ending up seeing significant time as a NFL starting QB is rare, not to mention an undrafted rook. But also take into consideration Hall grew up in football and he turns 25 in October and played in a pro-style offense in college. I would look at him more as the equivalent of a second or third year man.

The Cardinals open the 2010 season at St. Louis, Anderson might be able to get through that game. AZ then goes to Atlanta before hosting Oakland, and then play the Chargers and Saints leading into a Week 6 bye. Conventional wisdom says around that time a change would be made if Derek is not lighting up the skies. And even the Cards are 2-3 at that point, there would be plenty of time to right the ship in the weak NFC West.

Or Sam Bradford could totally outplay Derek on opening day and Whisenhunt may get the sense of urgency even sooner.

And actually Danny White wouldn’t be surprised if Max thinks he should be starting now.

I would not totally put the anointing oil on Max Hall at this point, but at the very least I can see him doing a solid job this season, or at least easily exceed the low bar that was set by Leinart. And having the likes of Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston at one’s disposal, as well as playing in the NFC West, also will make such a transition smoother. If in a fantasy football league and looking for a fill-in QB, I would make a waiver claim now, especially if you have a spot where you can afford to stash someone away for a while.

Hopefully Max Hall will at least be a good short-term answer in the desert, and that Kurt Warner can finally R.I.P (Retire In Peace).

Draft Strategy Advice: Don’t F Yourself on Draft Day

Every year I see people do it. Hell, I’ve even done it myself.

However, I have learned from my draft day mistakes, and in the last 4 years I have been able to win once and finish second three times. (Of course, now that I stated that in a public forum I will probably finish last this year…)

Today, I want to show you how you should approach your fantasy football draft, and I’ll do so by using an analogy that all guys can relate to: I’ll compare fantasy football draft strategy to a night out trolling the bars for ladies.

Pre-Drinking

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Preparation

Think of this like drinking before you get to the bar to help you save money on your tab (which in my experience didn’t really save any money…it just caused me to black out earlier.) You need to do some research, and this isn’t as hard as you think. Just find a few draft ranking sheets.  They are everywhere, compare them, and find one that you most closely agree with.

The next step is to check for injuries and suspensions, and then consider a few things and rank accordingly:

• Is this a good player on a horrible team?
• Is this a great WR with a horrible QB?
• Does this team have any good complimentary players?

These are all reasons to discount players. For example, if JaMarcus Russell was the starting QB for the Colts it would have a severely negative impact on the receiving core of that team, because even Reggie Wayne couldn’t catch enough balls from a no talent ass clown like Russell to be a #1 WR.

First Round of Drinks

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Round 1

When you walk up to the bar to get your first round of drinks, there are ladies everywhere and you haven’t F-ed up your chances with any of them yet. This is just like the first round of the draft, as all the badass players are available and you’re assured to get one of them.

As the rounds of the draft progress, of course, the talent slowly dwindles and drops off. This is the same concept as the more rounds of shots you take, the worse your chances of impressing a lady are. Apparently slurring “You wanna come home with me?” isn’t what they want to hear. Who knew?

Middle Rounds of Drinks

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: After Round 4

This is the point in the draft when all of the research you did before the draft will pay off. By knowing which players are actually starting and the caliber of complimentary players around them, you will be able to find guys who are being overlooked, guys like WR Marques Colston and WR Wes Welker, who both havegreat QBs throwing to them.

Also make sure to check injury updates as the rounds get later because drafting a player who is injured for the season is comparable to making out with a tranny…and that’s f-ing gross!!

Later Stages of the Night

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Final Rounds

Hopefully you haven’t blown your load and picked a kicker already. The difference between the best kicker and the 10th best kicker last year was 36 points, which averages out to just over 2 points per week. A kicker is not going to win you a championship. QBs, WRs, and RBs are.

The same thing can be said about Defenses. The difference between the best and 10th best was 55 points, which is between 3 to 4 points per game.

Last Call

A word about Rookies and players from your favorite team

You don’t get points for drafting players from your favorite team, so rank them honestly and if your league is local let someone else be the jackass that makes a homer pick prematurely.

Rookies are like a cock tease: they look really good, however it is often the case that they don’ t put out. Occasionally a rookie will surprise us and have a strong fantasy season, but more often than not – to finish the “not putting out” metaphor – rookies will leave you with blue balls.

You’re better off going for the chubby chick who is still hanging out by herself at closing time. This would be equitable to picking up a veteran starting WR like Jabar Gaffney in the final rounds. He isn’t sexy or exciting, but you know that he’ll put up some fantasy points when needed.

Marion Barber Trade Rumors: Tashard Choice Fantasy Impact

Jerod Morris over at Midwest Sports Fans just gave me a ring and said that there are reports on the radio the Marion Barber will be traded before the end of the week. The Rumor Mill has been churning about Marion Barber leaving the Cowboys for awhile now, which would no doubt increase the fantasy football value of Tashard Choice and Felix Jones. The reason the Cowboys would rather move Marion the Barbarian is simple as Todd Archer put in his article back in February.

He makes more money, doesn’t seem to be able to stay healthy, has lacked a burst the last two seasons. Choice is younger and cheaper and would be a good complement to Felix Jones. If you’re trading one of these guys, then you have to take a running back in the draft, IMO.
Todd Archer’s Mention: Marion Barber Trade

Old speculation on a possible Marion Barber trade is also on the NFL.com Blogs

Executives around the league think Cowboys RB Marion Barber could be available, but he’s believed to be the least attractive player in a backfield that includes Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.
NFL Network insider Jason La Canfora Mention: Marion Barber Trade

More Info as it comes out…

4 Reasons Jerome Harrison is Being Undervalued

Last year, Jerome Harrison entered fantasy football lore with one of the most unexpectedly productive final months we’ve ever seen. Over the season’s final three games, Harrison logged 286, 148, and 127 yards. He added five touchdowns for good measure.

More than a few playoff matchups were decided because of a player that few people (other than me, of course) had on their radar screen before the season began.

But as we get closer to the start of the 2010 season, I get the sense that people are becoming increasingly wary of Harrison. Much of this feeling comes from the fact that I’ve drafted Jerome Harrison in the 8th and 9th rounds in my last two drafts, and I feel he’s at least 2-3 rounds more valuable than that this year…with the potential to be even more valuable than that.

In this post, I’ll give you a few of the reasons why I am not nearly as worried about Jerome as so many others seem to be.

1. Harrison has always been productive when given a chance

As I mentioned last year, even dating back to his college days at Washington State the one constant about Jerome Harrison has been that he always produces when given consistent carries:

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5′9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16.

And when you look at his NFL career, the same holds true.

Just look at last season. In the four games in which the Browns gave Harrison 20+ carries, he was outstanding. Heading into 2010, Harrison is slated to have many more than four such games this year.

His career numbers, spread out over four seasons and 47 games, are: 271 carries, 1,310 yards, 6 TDs, 57 receptions, 402 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs. Take that as a stand-alone season and it’s top 10-15 RB material, which is exactly what I think Harrison has the potential to be this season.

Now, I don’t think he’ll grab 57 passes, so that projection is a bit much, but 250+ carries and 1200+ yards is not at all unreasonable, especially with the Browns’ being forced to focus on the run with INT-machine Jake Delhomme at QB and no standout WRs to speak of.

So you should trust that Harrison will produce if given carries. The question then becomes, is there someone on the Browns’ roster who could pilfer carries away from Harrison? Yes, but…

2. Montario Hardesty is very talented…but can’t stay healthy

The biggest knock on Harrison’s 2010 fantasy value has been the presence of Browns’ 2nd round draft choice Montario Hardesty. The rookie was very productive when healthy during his career at the University of Tennessee, with the key phrase there being when healthy.

Hardesty has already had multiple operations on his knee and only had one season at Tennessee in which he carried the ball more than 107 times. Much of that was due to the injury issues.

And guess what? Hardesty has already dealt with injury issues during the preseason and just got hurt again in the Browns’ most recent preseason game. While he may still prove to be a productive part of the Browns backfield in 2010, it is difficult, based on his history, to put much faith in Hardesty stealing consistent carries away from Harrison.

3. James Davis and Peyton Hillis are nothing special

As for 2009 rookie James Davis and Peyton Hillis, neither has shown the ability to be as productive an every down back as Harrison; and certainly neither possesses Harrison’s explosiveness or big play ability.

Hillis, however, will probably vulture some goalline TDs away from Harrison. That sucks, but it is what it is. Most of Harrison’s touchdowns come from outside the 5-10 yard lines anyway though, so this isn’t that big of a concern.

4. The Browns have a very underrated offensive line

No, the Browns’ offense was not very good last year, but it wasn’t the fault of the offensive line. Anchored by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas, the Browns consistently opened up holes for running backs and protected their quarterbacks. The problem? Ancient Jamal Lewis was too slow to hit the hole and neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson was able to play at a competent level with very, very little talent to throw to on the outside.

But, as mentioned above, Harrison proved that a productive running back with young, fresh legs can thrive behind the Browns’ current O-line. What he did over the last three weeks of the season showed that this unit can be a good run blocking line, and I expect that to continue into 2010.

Conclusion

Will Jerome Harrison produce like he did against Kansas City in Week 15 (286 yards, 3 TDs) every week? Of course not. In fact, expecting his Week 15-17 production extrapolated over a full season is foolish. The Browns played Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland, none of whom were especially strong against the run.

But, Jerome Harrison certainly has value as a #2 running back. You’re probably better off if you can pencil him as your #3 RB or flex player, but I think he finishes the season in the top 20.

To give you some comparisons: Harrison is more proven than Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, and CJ Spiller; he’ll get more opportunities than Marion Barber and Ricky Williams; and he’s less of an injury risk, based on his history, than Ronnie Brown or Joseph Addai (who is already dealing with a concussion). Yet, in most drafts, Harrison is going behind all of these guys. I’m not sure I’d do it in every situation, but a strong case could be made for taking Harrison about them all.

Certainly, Harrison is more valuable than the 8th-9th round where I’ve been getting him. Based on where he’s typically available, I’d start targeting Harrison in Round 7. And when you get him, either in that round or a round or two later, just know that you’re setting yourself up to get a guy who, based on his historical production and expected role, very well could produce Round 4-5 value.

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* – Jerome Harrison photo source: Fantasy Knuckleheads

Fantasy Football Black & White: Will Matt Forte go boom or bust in 2010?

[Editor's note: Welcome to the first installment of Fantasy Football Black & White, a weekly fantasy football debate between MSF's own Jerod Morris and Robert Littal from Black Sports Online. Each week, Jerod and Rob will figure out what they genuinely disagree on and then analyze it for you in simple black and white terms, 250 words or less. Then you get the final decision. Is it black...or is it white? Michael Jackson couldn't decide...can you?]

In today’s edition of Black & White, Rob and Jerod debate Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, who was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2009 season.

Many people drafted Forte in the top 5 after his terrific rookie season, but Forte could never seem to find a rhythm behind a struggling an offensive line and with a QB who had a penchant for red zone INTs.

What will 2010 hold for Forte?

Many are predicting a bounce back year, mainly because Mike Martz has been brought in as offensive coordinator. However, these positive predictions are muted by the memories of last year, as well as Forte’s career sub-4.0 yard per carry average.

Rob tells you why Forte will be a bust, while Jerod thinks Forte will follow in the long line of successful fantasy RBs under Martz.

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Black: Matt Forte will be a bust in 2010

I can already hear it: “Mike Martz is going to make Matt Forte into a Poor Man’s Marshall Faulk.”

It can be argued that Faulk in his prime was the greatest Fantasy Football Running Back of all time, so a poor man’s version of him is much better than any back going in the 3rd round of drafts.

Unfortunately it will never happen.

Matt Forte has a lot of similar skills to Marshall Faulk, but the Bears are nowhere near the teams Faulk was on with the Colts and Rams. Jay Cutler is no Manning or Warner. Devin Hester is no Harrison, Bruce or Holt.

But beyond all of that, the #1 reason gambling on Forte is a bad move? The Bears offensive line may be the worst in the NFL.

If you are Barry Sanders you could make it work, but a straight ahead, one cut runner like Forte will never have an opportunity to shine.

PS – Sources tell me (Stephen A-style) don’t be shocked if Chester Taylor is starting by mid-season.

White: Matt Forte will go boom in 2010

Quick, go here and look at the bulleted list about halfway down the page. Those are the reception numbers for running backs under Martz. Notice a trend? Mike Martz running backs get involved in the passing game. Period. End of story.

And lest you think that career backup Chester Taylor will be anything but a backup this year, remember that Forte already has 120 receptions in just two seasons, so it’s not like he needs to come off the field on passing downs.

And what about the Bears’ offensive line? Yes, it sucks. So? That’s not great for the Bears in real life, and it won’t make things easy on Matt Forte, but it doesn’t make him fantasy asbestos. The guy accounted for 1,700 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie despite a 3.9 yard average, so he can be a very productive #2 fantasy back even if he’s not wowing you with Chris Johnson-type success.

If Forte just reaches the averages of his two seasons so far, his 2010 numbers will be as follows:

• 1,083 rushing yards
• 6 rushing TDs
• 60 receptions
• 474 receiving yards
• 2 receiving TDs

Would you take 1,500 total yards and 8 TDs from your #2 back? I sure as heck would. And that’s a conservative projection.

Throw in the potential for Forte to catch some Mike Martz magic, and this is a player who will be a fantasy boom based on where you can land him in your drafts.

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