Last year, Jerome Harrison entered fantasy football lore with one of the most unexpectedly productive final months we’ve ever seen. Over the season’s final three games, Harrison logged 286, 148, and 127 yards. He added five touchdowns for good measure.

More than a few playoff matchups were decided because of a player that few people (other than me, of course) had on their radar screen before the season began.

But as we get closer to the start of the 2010 season, I get the sense that people are becoming increasingly wary of Harrison. Much of this feeling comes from the fact that I’ve drafted Jerome Harrison in the 8th and 9th rounds in my last two drafts, and I feel he’s at least 2-3 rounds more valuable than that this year…with the potential to be even more valuable than that.

In this post, I’ll give you a few of the reasons why I am not nearly as worried about Jerome as so many others seem to be.

1. Harrison has always been productive when given a chance

As I mentioned last year, even dating back to his college days at Washington State the one constant about Jerome Harrison has been that he always produces when given consistent carries:

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5′9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16.

And when you look at his NFL career, the same holds true.

Just look at last season. In the four games in which the Browns gave Harrison 20+ carries, he was outstanding. Heading into 2010, Harrison is slated to have many more than four such games this year.

His career numbers, spread out over four seasons and 47 games, are: 271 carries, 1,310 yards, 6 TDs, 57 receptions, 402 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs. Take that as a stand-alone season and it’s top 10-15 RB material, which is exactly what I think Harrison has the potential to be this season.

Now, I don’t think he’ll grab 57 passes, so that projection is a bit much, but 250+ carries and 1200+ yards is not at all unreasonable, especially with the Browns’ being forced to focus on the run with INT-machine Jake Delhomme at QB and no standout WRs to speak of.

So you should trust that Harrison will produce if given carries. The question then becomes, is there someone on the Browns’ roster who could pilfer carries away from Harrison? Yes, but…

2. Montario Hardesty is very talented…but can’t stay healthy

The biggest knock on Harrison’s 2010 fantasy value has been the presence of Browns’ 2nd round draft choice Montario Hardesty. The rookie was very productive when healthy during his career at the University of Tennessee, with the key phrase there being when healthy.

Hardesty has already had multiple operations on his knee and only had one season at Tennessee in which he carried the ball more than 107 times. Much of that was due to the injury issues.

And guess what? Hardesty has already dealt with injury issues during the preseason and just got hurt again in the Browns’ most recent preseason game. While he may still prove to be a productive part of the Browns backfield in 2010, it is difficult, based on his history, to put much faith in Hardesty stealing consistent carries away from Harrison.

3. James Davis and Peyton Hillis are nothing special

As for 2009 rookie James Davis and Peyton Hillis, neither has shown the ability to be as productive an every down back as Harrison; and certainly neither possesses Harrison’s explosiveness or big play ability.

Hillis, however, will probably vulture some goalline TDs away from Harrison. That sucks, but it is what it is. Most of Harrison’s touchdowns come from outside the 5-10 yard lines anyway though, so this isn’t that big of a concern.

4. The Browns have a very underrated offensive line

No, the Browns’ offense was not very good last year, but it wasn’t the fault of the offensive line. Anchored by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas, the Browns consistently opened up holes for running backs and protected their quarterbacks. The problem? Ancient Jamal Lewis was too slow to hit the hole and neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson was able to play at a competent level with very, very little talent to throw to on the outside.

But, as mentioned above, Harrison proved that a productive running back with young, fresh legs can thrive behind the Browns’ current O-line. What he did over the last three weeks of the season showed that this unit can be a good run blocking line, and I expect that to continue into 2010.

Conclusion

Will Jerome Harrison produce like he did against Kansas City in Week 15 (286 yards, 3 TDs) every week? Of course not. In fact, expecting his Week 15-17 production extrapolated over a full season is foolish. The Browns played Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland, none of whom were especially strong against the run.

But, Jerome Harrison certainly has value as a #2 running back. You’re probably better off if you can pencil him as your #3 RB or flex player, but I think he finishes the season in the top 20.

To give you some comparisons: Harrison is more proven than Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, and CJ Spiller; he’ll get more opportunities than Marion Barber and Ricky Williams; and he’s less of an injury risk, based on his history, than Ronnie Brown or Joseph Addai (who is already dealing with a concussion). Yet, in most drafts, Harrison is going behind all of these guys. I’m not sure I’d do it in every situation, but a strong case could be made for taking Harrison about them all.

Certainly, Harrison is more valuable than the 8th-9th round where I’ve been getting him. Based on where he’s typically available, I’d start targeting Harrison in Round 7. And when you get him, either in that round or a round or two later, just know that you’re setting yourself up to get a guy who, based on his historical production and expected role, very well could produce Round 4-5 value.

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* – Jerome Harrison photo source: Fantasy Knuckleheads

[Editor's note: Welcome to the first installment of Fantasy Football Black & White, a weekly fantasy football debate between MSF's own Jerod Morris and Robert Littal from Black Sports Online. Each week, Jerod and Rob will figure out what they genuinely disagree on and then analyze it for you in simple black and white terms, 250 words or less. Then you get the final decision. Is it black...or is it white? Michael Jackson couldn't decide...can you?]

In today’s edition of Black & White, Rob and Jerod debate Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, who was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2009 season.

Many people drafted Forte in the top 5 after his terrific rookie season, but Forte could never seem to find a rhythm behind a struggling an offensive line and with a QB who had a penchant for red zone INTs.

What will 2010 hold for Forte?

Many are predicting a bounce back year, mainly because Mike Martz has been brought in as offensive coordinator. However, these positive predictions are muted by the memories of last year, as well as Forte’s career sub-4.0 yard per carry average.

Rob tells you why Forte will be a bust, while Jerod thinks Forte will follow in the long line of successful fantasy RBs under Martz.

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Black: Matt Forte will be a bust in 2010

I can already hear it: “Mike Martz is going to make Matt Forte into a Poor Man’s Marshall Faulk.”

It can be argued that Faulk in his prime was the greatest Fantasy Football Running Back of all time, so a poor man’s version of him is much better than any back going in the 3rd round of drafts.

Unfortunately it will never happen.

Matt Forte has a lot of similar skills to Marshall Faulk, but the Bears are nowhere near the teams Faulk was on with the Colts and Rams. Jay Cutler is no Manning or Warner. Devin Hester is no Harrison, Bruce or Holt.

But beyond all of that, the #1 reason gambling on Forte is a bad move? The Bears offensive line may be the worst in the NFL.

If you are Barry Sanders you could make it work, but a straight ahead, one cut runner like Forte will never have an opportunity to shine.

PS – Sources tell me (Stephen A-style) don’t be shocked if Chester Taylor is starting by mid-season.

White: Matt Forte will go boom in 2010

Quick, go here and look at the bulleted list about halfway down the page. Those are the reception numbers for running backs under Martz. Notice a trend? Mike Martz running backs get involved in the passing game. Period. End of story.

And lest you think that career backup Chester Taylor will be anything but a backup this year, remember that Forte already has 120 receptions in just two seasons, so it’s not like he needs to come off the field on passing downs.

And what about the Bears’ offensive line? Yes, it sucks. So? That’s not great for the Bears in real life, and it won’t make things easy on Matt Forte, but it doesn’t make him fantasy asbestos. The guy accounted for 1,700 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie despite a 3.9 yard average, so he can be a very productive #2 fantasy back even if he’s not wowing you with Chris Johnson-type success.

If Forte just reaches the averages of his two seasons so far, his 2010 numbers will be as follows:

• 1,083 rushing yards
• 6 rushing TDs
• 60 receptions
• 474 receiving yards
• 2 receiving TDs

Would you take 1,500 total yards and 8 TDs from your #2 back? I sure as heck would. And that’s a conservative projection.

Throw in the potential for Forte to catch some Mike Martz magic, and this is a player who will be a fantasy boom based on where you can land him in your drafts.

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In that game, the Cowboys looked out of sync, discombobulated, and worn down as they were physically beaten by the Texans and raised some eye brows about the super bowl contender.

Will the red zone woes from last season carry over to this season? Can the offensive line hold up enough to keep Romo off his back? Or, can Alan Ball and Gerald Sensabaugh provide the consistent play at the safety positions this defense has desperately needed in past years.

So, here are four concerns for the Cowboys going into the last preseason game.  More importantly, these are areas they need to address with the regular season right around the corner:

1. Red Zone Offense
   Last year, the Cowboys offense ranked second in total yards gained per game averaging 399.4.  However, it did not transfer over to points as they were ranked 14^th in points per game averaging 22.6.Most of the problems came from little to no production in the red zone, which has also been a problem for the Cowboys in this preseason.  Coming into training camp, this one of the areas they wanted to address with the offense along with short yardage situations. So far and based off their production, they have not shown much progress.

   In four preseason games, the first team offense has only scored one touchdown which came against the San Diego Chargers.  Not exactly a sign of progression that you want to see if you’re a Cowboys fan.

   What could be the problem? My answer would be the play selection by offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.  Too many times, Garrett decides to pass out of a shotgun formation as was the case in the first preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

   The Cowboys drove effectively down the field and stalled when they got to the red zone which happened so many times last year.  They ended up going 0-for-3 with three straight pass plays out of the shotgun inside the 10-yard line and settled for a field goal.

   It’s OK to be creative down in the red zone using different types of formations. However, I think the offense will be a lot more successful if Garrett calls plays more out of running formations because of the threat of all three running backs carrying the ball to go along with the plethora of talent Romo has to throw to.

   If the Cowboys want to see their yards gained translate into points, Jason Garrett needs use the run more which will eventually set up play action pass opportunities in the red zone.

2. Offensive Line
   This group has been hit by injuries throughout the entire preseason including starters tackle Marc Colombo and guard Kyle Kosier.  Also, off-season acquisition tackle Alex Barron was bothered by a sprained right ankle and missed crucial time to get acclimated to his new system.
   Because of this, it gave some unproven guys an opportunity to show they can be called upon if needed in the regular season.  Unfortunately for Romo, he hopes none of his starters get hurt when the season comes around because he took a pounding in the last three preseason games.

   If the Cowboys want to have success this season, their number one priority should be protecting Romo because he is the most important player on this team.

3. The Safety Spots
   Both safety positions have been an area of concern for the Cowboys for what seems to have been an eternity.  This year, they feel that free safety Alan Ball and strong safety Gerald Sensabaugh can finally provide some stability.Last season in his first year with the Cowboys, Sensabaugh showed he can be a mainstay at that position with his versatility in coverage along his hitting ability.

   Ball, the cornerback turned safety, is felt that he can provide more playmaking ability on the football which has been an emphasis during training camp for the secondary.  In the preseason, Ball had been playing good but did not look so well in the game against Houston. He was caught out of position with missed tackles while trying to the run and getting burned for a touchdown by wide receiver Jacoby Jones.

   Behind Ball and Sensabaugh, are safeties Mike Hamlin, Barry Church, and Danny McCray. Do not expect Sensabaugh to get his spot taken by any of these guys. However, if Ball does not play up to par, expect Hamlin to get the nod at his position.

4. Is David Buehler Ready?
   Along with the uncertainty at the safety spots, the kicker position has been a mystery for the Cowboys in recent years.   Last season, former kicker Nick Folk went from good to atrocious and was cut after the win against the New Orleans Saints in Week 15.Now, with kickoff specialist David Buehler handling all the kicking duties, the question is whether he can be an efficient and constant field goal kicker.

   Well, in the preseason, Buehler has done a decent job going 6-of-7 making all of his attempts inside the 40-yard line.  His lone miss was from 50 yards which sailed far left in the preseason opener. However, it’s going to be interesting to see how he performs in pressure situations when the games start to count for real.

Image Credit: Dallas News