Fire in the Sky: Justin Smoak approaches The Show

As September draws nearer, the future promise for all 30 Major League teams comes in the form of the expansion of the roster from 25 to 40 players. When the rosters expand on September 1, “franchise saviors” and “organizational soldiers” get a small taste of the majors, or as it’s also known, “The Show.”

For the Texas Rangers, the hope is that the playoffs are still realistic on September 1. As of this writing on August 6, the team stood only 3 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the Wild Card berth in the playoffs. While the Rangers have already seen a couple of the jewels of their farm system, Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz, one gem still remains at AAA – Justin Smoak.

So who exactly is Justin Smoak, and why is he seen as one of the best players in the Rangers minor league system?

Justin Smoak Bio and Scouting Report

Justin Smoak was drafted out of the University of South Carolina in the first round of the 2008 draft by the Rangers with the 11th overall selection. There were those in the scouting business that thought Smoak was the best pure hitter in the draft, but fell to the Rangers because of signability concerns. A switch hitting first baseman from the Southeast, Smoak has long drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira, who went to Georgia Tech. While he can’t really play any position besides first base, Smoak’s defense at that position also elicited comparisons to the Yankees’ All-Star.

Smoak had a stellar career as a Gamecock, finishing his career there as the school leader in Home Runs, RBIs and Walks. He never batted below .300 in his three years at the school, and posted a .385 mark as a junior with a .505 OBP, walking every four at-bats.

Smoak signed only 15 minutes before the signing deadline last year and played the rest of the season at Class A Clinton. Smoak batted .304 and hit 3 home runs in only 56 at-bats. While Smoak showed a relatively low walk rate, he improved that rate in 2009. Smoak began the season at Double-A Frisco after a strong spring training. Although Smoak suffered an oblique injury that forced him to miss some time, Smoak complied an impressive body of work in Frisco in a short amount of time. In 185 at-bats, Smoak hit .328 with a .449 on-base percentage with 6 home runs. Most impressive, though, especially for the Rangers, was that Smoak walked 39 times with only 35 strikeouts.

Clearly Smoak has an impressive control of the strike zone.

As of this writing, Smoak sits at Triple-A Oklahoma City, batting .221 in 113 at-bats with a .318 OBP. After a slow start, though, Smoak is hitting .343 in the last ten games with two homers and eight RBI.

Smoak seems to a have a pretty quick learning curve, as Smoak seems to have found his stroke at the newest level after only 75 at-bats or so. Many Ranger fans have been calling for Smoak’s promotion with the struggles of Hank Blalock, as Smoak seems to be what the lineup needs – a guy who doesn’t strike out and works the count.

On the 2009 list of top 100 prospects by Baseball America, Smoak is ranked as the #2 prospect in the Rangers system (behind Feliz) and #23 overall. The brief snippet of info about him though guesses that Smoak arrives sometime this year.

Jason Parks, one of the most dedicated Rangers followers and excellent baseball scout, wrote a scouting report about Justin Smoak in the fantastic scouting series on the Rangers blog Baseball Time in Arlington.

As far as pure hitting tools go, there aren’t many minor leaguers that have the ability to hit a baseball like Smoak can. His hitting fundamentals are sound from both sides of the plate; he keeps his hands back, has a calm load, and a smooth path to the ball with excellent lift and bat plane. His swing from the left side is slightly more compact, but his superior strength creates enough bat speed to give him power from both sides of the plate.

Parks continues to say that Smoak’s offensive production may eventually fall short of Teixeira’s production, but that Smoak will still be an above-average major league hitter. At the most recent Newberg Report Night, the great Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus said that Smoak could be a “switch-hitting Justin Morneau.”

Smoak has struggled at points this year against lefties, although is batting .250 against them in Triple-A in 36 bats. For the whole season, Smoak is hitting .295/.407/.460, with 11 homers and 49 RBI in 302 at-bats. The power hasn’t quite been up to the point that some people have hoped for, but Smoak does not seem like a 45 HR guy. His more likely total will be 30 with something like 45 doubles, but with a very high OBP and few strikeouts.

Texas Rangers 2009-2010 Lineup

From the moment Justin Smoak was drafted, there was a logjam at his position. Chris Davis, a local product (from Longview) had come up and had sparked the Rangers league leading offense and was playing a very solid first base. At the time, it seemed as if the best thing for the team wouldn’t just be to trade Chris Davis in order to grab a young starter that could step right into the Rangers rotation. One team that was bandied about among fan blogs was the San Francisco Giants’ Matt Cain. While I doubt the Rangers even considered trading Davis after his stellar 2008 campaign, the 2009 season was a giant step back for Davis and might have created more questions for the team.

Davis was sent down after a Rangers victory over Tampa Bay one month ago. (Josh Hamilton was activated from the DL the next day) Smoak had just been called up to Triple-A just two days before, so the past month for the Oklahoma City Redhawks has been somewhat of an experiment in order to see how Smoak and Davis can play together. Smoak has gotten the vast majority of the playing time at first base, with Davis playing either third base or acting as the designated hitter.

Davis has hit .303 in the month since being sent down to Oklahoma City, but has only hit .237 in the last ten games with 12 strikeouts against three walks. This type of production seems to be what Davis is going to be – a lot of power (.514 SLG in the month at Oklahoma) but not a fantastic OBP (.366 despite a .303 BA). Davis is going to have to hit his way on base, as it appears he is not going to be the type that walks a ton. Still, though, Davis could be a fine DH/1B/emergency 3B if he can keep the average up, and the Rangers are going to depend on him.

Why so much time on Davis? Because that’s what Smoak is up against. Smoak and Davis could make for a lethal combination eventually in the meat of the Rangers order, especially if Davis hits in front of Smoak. An ideal lineup would seem to be something to this effect: 1 – Andrus 2 – Young 3 – Smoak 4 – Kinsler 5 – Cruz 6 – Davis 7 – Hamilton 8 – Saltalamacchia 9 – Borbon. (Andrus and Borbon switching for righties) That may seem low for Josh Hamilton, and if Josh can be something in between 2008 and 2009, he could fit right in as the #3 hitter, pushing Smoak to #6 and Davis to #7. Or those two could be switched. Whatever the order, Justin Smoak is going to have a major impact no matter where he is slotted in.

The Rangers currently do not have a lot of guys in their lineup who take a lot of walks. Kinsler seems to have a pretty good eye along with David Murphy, but Murphy seems best suited to be in the fourth outfielder role. Nelson Cruz draws a fair amount of walks, and as Elvis Andrus matures, he seems to be able to take a few pitches. But no one has quite the discerning eye that Justin Smoak has. Will Justin Smoak be the next Mark Teixeira? Maybe. Teixeira, for what it’s worth, finished with a line of .259/.331/.480 with 26 HR and 29 doubles in his rookie year. Those numbers were accrued in 2003, when Tex played the whole year with the Rangers.

Smoak, in all likelihood, will see a few at-bats in September. But next year will be Smoak’s time to shine, with Hank Blalock’s contract up and Chris Davis (unfortunately) failing to seize the job, and Smoak will probably head into the 2010 season as the starting first baseman for the Rangers. I’m not sure Smoak will put up quite that much power, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him approach 20 homers on the season. Smoak will, however, put up a superior on-base percentage, simply by judging his performance this year in the minors.

September could be a key month in Smoak’s development. The trend for Justin this year was for him to struggle initially at a new level, but then turn it on quickly. It would behoove the Rangers greatly if that “acclimation period” came in September of this year as opposed to April of next year, although if the Rangers stay in the pennant race I’m not sure that’s a realistic possibility.

Still, Smoak will be a crucial player for the Rangers next season – he could be one of the offensive catalysts on a team that, frankly, will be expected to contend. Will he hit 30-35 home runs? Not next year, but probably eventually. Smoak’s most common comparison, Mark Teixeira, has only hit more than 40 homers once in his career, and everyone would like to have him on their team. While there are those who think he may be closer to Lyle Overbay than Mark Teixeira, Smoak has still only been playing professional baseball for about a year, and won’t be 23 until December. Justin Smoak has a bright future, and it’s just right around the corner.

Smoak stats: milb.com, wikipedia.org

Smoak pic: mlb.com

Davis pic: theghostofmoonlightgraham.com