NFL Week 7 – ATLANTA FALCONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Sunday, October 25, 4:15 p.m. ET
Favorite: Cowboys -4

Cowboys offense vs Falcons defense

As defendants, the Falcons have been pushed around like scared criminals on their first day in prison when it comes to the running game. Atlanta allows close to 120 yards per game and the Cowboys, whose offensive bread and butter has arguably been the running game in 2009, should have a big day. The Cowboys will throw a bit of everything at the Atlanta D-line: Marion Barber for power, returning Felix Jones for explosiveness and versatile Tashard Choice for a bit of everything.

No quarterback has totally torched the Atlanta pass defense but everyone has at least moved the ball decently, so Tony Romo’s NFL odds of succeeding are solid. Atlanta’s pass rush is puppy-dog-weak, so Romo should have plenty of time to hit Miles Austin downfield, as he did against the Chiefs two weeks ago.

Cowboys defense vs Falcons offense

There’s definitely reason to panic here. The Cowboys rank in the NFL’s bottom half in total defense, run defense and especially pass defense. That’s after facing Tampa Bay, Carolina and Kansas City plus the Giants and Denver. Arguably, the Giants are the only prolific offense Dallas has played; the Broncos rock but have dominated primarily through defense. If the Cowboys struggle to stop weaker offenses, it’s scary to imagine what the high-octane Falcons can do.

The Cowboys have lost their pass rushing ability after leading the league in that regard last season. If any Joe Blow Fafone can throw on the Cowboys, Matt Ryan could put on a show with favorite targets Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White. If the Cowboys’ pass defense buckles down – and it has in recent weeks – Ryan can still hand off to bruising Michael Turner. Dallas needs its best defensive performance of the season to stay competitive.

Outlook

In this disappointing season, the Cowboys need to earn back our trust. Unfortunately, the Falcons look like a better football team right now – just like the Yankees’ World Series odds over the Angels. I think they’ll edge Dallas in a hard-fought affair this Sunday with Matt Ryan making the difference.

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