Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well, as I explained in this week’s waiver wire sleeper picks post, I needed another Monday night miracle to make the playoffs in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. Barring something truly miraculous over the next hour, my season will end at the hands of Team Gunaxin.

Regardless, it has been a great experience, highlighted by the trip to New York and the draft in the NFL boardroom. That was a truly memorable experience that I’ll remember forever, and I cannot thank P&G and the NFL enough for making it reality. I would have loved to be able to enjoy this year’s Super Bowl live from Jerry World as well; but alas, it was not meant to be.

Luckily I am in many more leagues than just that one and actually had three byes this week. So fear not, dear reader! Just because my season has come to a screeching halt in the P&G league, I still have leagues with friends and family that I must win for essential bragging rights and pride. Thus, I will still be working just as hard as always to analyze the players, trends, matchups, and injuries to help myself out in my other leagues and to help you out in yours.

Let’s start analyzing.

Before we delve into the Week 15 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 14 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 14 top-line picks, which we pretty solid – a nice rebound effort after my poor Week 13:

• Start em hits: Knowshon Moreno; Vernon Davis; Atlanta Falcons
• Start em misses: Jay Cutler (damn me for trusting him);
• Sit em hits: Matt Cassel (obviously this is kind of cheap, but I said it on Sunday night, more than a week before we knew he was out!); Marshawn Lynch; Titans WRs (no TDs); Tennessee Titans
• Sit em misses:

Still to play: Anquan Boldin, Joel Dreesen

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

***San Francisco and San Diego play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (at Seattle)

I don’t think this one is very tough.

The Seattle Seahawks are among the generous defenses in the NFL to opposing QBs. As anyone who watched Alex Smith – Alex Smith! – torch the Seahawks this past weekend knows, even a poor passing game can put up big numbers against Seattle. Matt Ryan and the Falcons do not exactly have an explosive passing offense, but it is solid and steady, and it will be able to take advantage of the gaping holes in the Seattle secondary.

Matt Ryan has 22 TD passes and 8 INTs on the season. He has thrown at least one TD pass in every game but one this year and has thrown at least two in three out of his last four games. Roddy White is healthy, Tony Gonzalez is still a threat, and Michael Turner is keeping defenses honest. Ryan will rarely wow you with Brady-like fantasy explosions, but there is something to be said for a guaranteed 14-18 points come playoff time. Ryan will give you that this Sunday, with the potential for more.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 15 projection: 245 passing yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 15:

• Jon Kitna isn’t flashy. In fact, he’s kind of like a poor man’s Matt Ryan in terms of his fantasy value. He’s capable of a big week every now and then, but almost always provides 10 or more points. With a solid matchup against Washington, Kitna is worth a look.
• In case you had lingering doubts about Peyton Manning, he’s facing Jacksonville this week. Start him…and stop worrying.
• David Garrard is having his best season as a pro. As I wrote in this week’s waiver wire sleeper picks article, he doesn’t have a prolific history against Indianapolis, but the Colts’ D has struggled some lately and Garrard is finally a consistent fantasy producer. In a two-QB league, he’s a very good #2 option.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (v NYJ)

There are a few reasons why I’m not big on this matchup. First off, I watched the Jets play this weekend, and while their offense was beyond awful the defense played pretty well. Granted, it’s not hard to look good when you’re facing Chad Henne, but they still completely shut down an NFL passing game. And we know that Revis Island is still, in fact, and island.

Secondly, Big Ben and the Steelers’ passing game is really struggling. In fact, Ben has just one TD pass (along with one INT) over his last three games. Not only is the O-Line having trouble protecting him, but Ben looks a bit out of sorts even when he has time to throw.

If you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs. Do you really want to trust a struggling QB against Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie with your season on the line? Let Ben surprise you with a big game, just don’t start him and have to count on it.

Ben Roethlisberger fantasy football Week 15 projections: 240 yards passing, 0 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 15:

• Two weeks in a row I told you to start Jay Cutler. He was decent in Week 13 and terrible in Week 14. Granted, weather played a factor last week, but it doesn’t change the fact that recommending Jay Cutler went against my fantasy principles. Notice how every time I do that it leads to failure? I need to start trusting my damn self. You have my apologies.
• Wow Kyle Orton. Just…wow. No TDs and 3 INTs against an Arizona team that even Troy Smith lit up. There is no excuse. With rumors now circulating that Tim Tebow could start getting more time, it’s time to stop counting on Orton.
• Don’t get unnecessarily excited about Jason Campbell. Darren McFadden did most of the work on one of those two TD passes, and, well…it’s Jason Campbell. Plus, Denver’s pass D has been better over the last couple of weeks.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em RB: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina (v Arizona)

Sometimes it’s just too easy.

Want to know how to figure out which RB to start each week? Just go down the schedule and find out who is playing Carolina. Without fail, that RB will have a productive fantasy day. The Cardinals give up more fantasy points to opposing running backs than anyone else in the NFL. That probably is not going to change over the final three weeks of the season with the Cards having little left to play for.

And just in case you’ve been sleeping on the Carolina Panthers, they still suck. Badly. But, at least they have found a bright spot in the return of Jonathan Stewart. He’s had at least 92 yards in each of his last three games and scored a touchdown in one of them. JStew’s scoring potential will always be limited by the Panthers’ moribund passing game, but if he’s going to get another touchdown the Cardinals are the most likely opponent.

Jonathan Stewart fantasy football Week 15 projection: 110 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 15:

• BenJarvus Green-Ellis has become a weekly must start. The offense he plays for is just too good, and Bill Belichick clearly trusts him as a 15-20 carry back. The Lawfirm had a bad fantasy day by his own lofty 2010 standards last week, and yet he still rushed for 80+ yards against the Bears in a blizzard. Not bad.
• Ronnie Brown owners, I know you’re sick of Ronnie being unproductive. I know. But if you’ve held onto him this long, the Bills give up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. And since the Dolphins can’t throw the ball, Ricky Williams even makes some sense if you’re desperate. I’m serious.
• LeGarrette Blount disappointed last week, but he’s still the main guy for the Bucs, he still averaged 4+ yards per carry, and he faces a Lions D that has given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing RBs. He remains a top-20 option.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em RB: Christopher Ivory, New Orleans (at Baltimore)

You know that I’ve been high on the Saints’ rookie in recent weeks, and despite the return of Pierre Thomas in Week 14 it looked like Ivory was going to prove me right with another solid outing. He amassed 47 yards on his first seven carries, but then suffered a hamstring injury and was forced to the leave the game. This is all kinds of bad for Ivory owners.

First off, hamstring injuries can be tricky and linger. We’ve seen numerous hamstring injuries ruin entire months for players already this season. Secondly, the Saints don’t have to be in a hurry to get Ivory back in there and get him tons of touches now that Thomas and Reggie Bush are back. Thirdly, specific to Week 15, Baltimore is one of the stingiest run Ds in the NFL. Even if he was healthy, this would have been a tough matchup for Ivory.

If he ends up being out this week, obviously this one becomes automatic. But even if he plays. I don’t like Ivory based on the matchup and the fact that the Saints’ #1 and #2 preseason options are back in the fold.

Christopher Ivory fantasy football Week 15 projection (assuming he starts): 12 carries, 40 yards, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 15:

• There is absolutely no reason to go near LaDainian Tomlinson or Shonn Greene this week. The Steelers are still the best team against the run in the NFL, and the Jets’ offense is providing very few scoring opportunities.
• Fred Jackson has now gone two straight games without a score as the Buffalo offense has stalled against better competition. They face another stiff defense, the Dolphins, in Week 15. It could be another day of decent yardage but few scoring chances for Jackson. He’s not a must-sit, but if you have other top 20 options, use them.
• Cleveland continues to play the run well and Cincinnati continues to not run the ball effectively. Cedric Benson is coming off a pathetic 19-yard day and is worth sitting if you have other top-20 options.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em WR: Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (v Jacksonville)

I was high on Garcon last week, placing him in my top 20 despite the overrated struggles of Peyton Manning. Pierre responded by hauling 6 passes for 93 yards and two TDs. He now has at least five catches and 56 yards in each of his last four games, and he has caught at least one TD in consecutive ball games. Clearly he and Manning had found some of the rhythm they lacked earlier in the season, and a big part of it seems to be Garcon just focusing better.

So regardless of the matchup, Garcon would be a must-start this week. Fortunately for Garcon owners, the matchup is a thing of beauty. The Jags give up tons of fantasy points to opposing WRs, and there will be plenty to go around for both Garcon and Reggie Wayne. Both players absolutely have to be in fantasy lineups this week.

Pierre Garcon fantasy football Week 15 projections: 6 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 15:

• You saw what Desean Jackson did to the Cowboys last week, right? Well Santana Moss was Desean Jackson before Desean Jackson was Desean Jackson. He’s a Cowboy killer and is coming off a nice Week 14. He’s a solid play this week.
• Way too many people asked me about Malcom Floyd last week. Why in the world would you ever sit Philip Rivers’ #1 WR, especially with Antonio Gates out? Floyd is a must-start this week, and I may just end up warming up to Vincent F’ing Jackson too. We’ll see on that one.
• If you’re desperate for a third WR, I like Earl Bennett as a guy who has proven he’ll give you something. He’s not flashy, but he’s been productive over the last three weeks as Jay Cutler’s top, most reliable target.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em WR: Brandon Lloyd, Denver (at Oakland)

Well, the fun ride had to end at some point for Brandon Lloyd owners, didn’t it? I mean, there is a reason why this guy has bounced around so much and never put together a complete season worth of solid play. It’s because he’s just an okay receiver and needs a scheme, QB, and matchup to be all working in his favor. Unfortunately for Lloyd and his owners, these elements have not been working in his favor recently.

Over his last two games, Lloyd has five catches for 63 yards and no TDs. In Week 15 he gets to face a Raiders’ defense that isn’t spectacular, but that is in the bottom third in terms of points allowed to opposing WRs (bottom in this case meaning not many points allowed). With Kyle Orton struggling and offensive whiz Josh McDaniels no longer around, I see a cloudy future for Lloyd and any owners counting on him in the playoffs.

Caveat: Lloyd has been targeted 17 times over the last two weeks, and is still a redzone threat if the Broncos can get there; so he’s not a blanket sit. But he won’t be a top 25 WR this week for me, so if you have equal or better options, roll with ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 15 projection: 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 15:

• Consider sitting Mike Wallace this week. With Darrelle Revis sure to be blanketing him, and Big Ben struggling as it is, Wallace could be in for a rough go of it this week. Also, in non-PPR leagues, Hines Ward is worth sitting too.
• I am still not sold on Brandon Marshall. Yes, he scored a touchdown last week in his return from a hamstring injury, but he only had two catches. He has no chemistry with Chad Henne at all, and the Dolphins will surely run, run, run against the Bills.
• So I guess Alex Smith’s return wasn’t the boon we all thought it would be for Michael Crabtree, huh? He had just one catch for one yard against the Seattle Seahawks. With San Fran going on the road to face San Diego and its stout pass D, this is a week to sit Crabtree.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em TE: Jason Witten, Dallas (v Washington)

Well, welcome back to fantasy relevance Jason Witten! After scoring just six TDs over the previous two seasons combined, Witten has now caught six TDs since Week 4 of 2010. Clearly Witten has a nice rapport with Jon Kitna, which has reached a crescendo now that we’re in the fantasy playoffs as Witten has three TDs over the past two weeks.

In Week 14, we saw Kellen Winslow score a TD against the Redskins, who have actually been pretty good against opposing tight ends this season. Regardless, Witten is red hot and re-staking his claim among the best weekly TE options in the NFL. He starts for you, no matter what the matchup for the rest of the season.

Jason Witten fantasy football Week 15 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other fantasy football Week 15 projections:

• As long as Alex Smith is his QB, Vernon Davis is a must-start. With the Chargers killing opposing WRs this season, Smith will likely have to go to VD even more.
• Jacob Tamme‘s numbers have declined over the past couple of weeks, but I doubt there will be ten better options than him this week. Jacksonville gives up lots of points to TEs, and Tamme still catches 4-5 passes even on his slow weeks.
• Assuming Matt Flynn starts against New England this week, Andrew Quarless is a sneaky play.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em TE: Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots (v Green Bay)

This is an odd combo to put in the sit ‘em category because we know that one of them will go off this week. Just look at their games logs here and here. One week it’s one guy having a nice day, and the next week it’s the other guy. The problem is predicting which guy will have the solid day. If we trust the alternating weeks theory, it would appear that this is the week Hernandez has a good game. Plus, the Packers actually give up a decent amount of points to opposing TEs.

Here’s the thing though: it’s the playoffs. This is do or die. You can’t afford a 1-catch day from any spot on your roster, and we’ve seen far too many of those from these two guys. I’d much rather grab a guy who is his team’s sole tight end option and who is more consistent. It’s fun playing Patriots TE Roulette during the regular season; it’s not so much fun when the stakes are higher.

Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 15 projection: Who the hell knows, but one of them will have just one catch. That we know.

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 15:

• Neither Jimmy Graham nor Jeremy Shockey really did much in Week 14. This week, they face the stingiest defense in the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. Meh.
• Greg Olsen has three straight 1-catch games. Let’s put it this way: I’d play Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski over Olsen.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Miami Dolphins (v Buffalo)

In case you haven’t been paying attention, the Miami Dolphins are sneaking their way back into playoff contention (though they need to win out and get help) on the back of a very strong defense. With a solid matchup against the Bills this week, the Dolphins’ attacking D is a solid option for your playoff lineup. Miami drops too many interceptions and isn’t good enough on special teams to provide many 20-point outbursts, but they are good for a solid 10-15 points per week, and that’s good enough to get you to the next round.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Week 15 projection: 10 pts or less allowed, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 15:

• After playing terribly during the first half of the season, the New England defense has shut down the Jets and the Bears to become fantasy-relevant. If Matt Flynn does indeed start for the Packers in Week 15, the Patriots are a must-start.
• The New York Jets defense played well last week despite the loss, and they face a Pittsburgh offense that is really struggling. I expect a tough, nasty game with few points. You’re already starting Pittsburgh; start the Jets too.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Green Bay Packers (at New England)

The Chicago Bears had one of the league’s best defenses and got to face the Patriots in Chicago in blizzard conditions. What did New England do? They annihilated them. The Packers have a similarly good defense, but they have to face the Patriots in Foxboro with an inexperienced QB who will probably give Tom Brady good field position a few times. With many other good D/ST options this week, there is no point in rolling the dice against Tom Brady.

Green Bay Packers fantasy football Week 15 projection: 27 or more points allowed, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 15:

• Baltimore has to face a New Orleans offense that is clicking on all cylinders. With the weakness of Baltimore’s defense being the secondary, I don’t like this matchup.
• The New York Giants have to face Michael Vick and the Fastest Show on Turf. The smart move has been to sit any D facing Vick this year. That should apply in the playoffs.

Alright folks. The comment section awaits. Ask away!

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well, it all comes down to this.

As I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start ‘em, Sit ‘em post, I currently lead my Week 13 opponent (Brian Bassett of The Jets Blog) 61.22-36.20 in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*.

Before you get too excited for me though, take a look at who he still has left to play: QB Mark Sanchez; RB Shonn Greene; WR Danny Woodhead; TE Dustin Keller; D/ST New York Jets. Basically, if those five players average five points a piece, I’m toast.

What will make a loss burn even more is that the team I needed to lose, PUNTE‘s squad, did in fact lose. A win and I am a single game out of the final playoff spot with one week to play. I’ll have a fighting chance. A loss and I’m done, just playing Week 14 for pride.

Needless to say, I will be watching the Monday night game with great intrigue, hoping for a miracle.

Update: I don’t know how the hell it happened, but I won! Still alive baby!

Regardless of the outcome though, you can rest assured that I never bail on a fantasy football team as long as I still have games on the schedule. I simply do not believe in it. Plus, whether I’m still alive the Blogger Fantasy League or not, I have five other leagues for which I need to get ready for the playoffs.

As always, I share my research with you here at MSF Fantasy Sports. Yesterday I posted the Week 14 waiver wire sleeper picks column. In this post, I highlight players at every position that you should consider starting and others whom you should consider sitting.

Before we delve into the Week 14 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Jay Cutler, New York Giants D
• Start em misses: Fred Jackson, Mario Manningham, Tony Gonzalez
• Sit em hits: Randy Moss, Kellen Winslow, Arizona Cardinals D; LT
• Sit em misses: Tom Brady (HUGE MISS!)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 14.

***Indianapolis and Tennessee play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (v New England)

No, you are not seeing things. I am recommending Jay Cutler as my start ‘em QB for the second straight week. Though Cutler underperformed my lofty expectations against Detroit in Week 13, going 21-26 for 234 yards with one TD and no INTs is nothing to be ashamed of. That’s a solid 12-15 points in any scoring system and certainly good enough to have helped you win your matchup.

In Week 13, the call was easy. Cutler had been playing well, he was facing a defense that had been carved up recently by opposing QBs, and he had a great history against them. In Week 14, the call isn’t quite so easy, but the stats and trends still suggest that it’s a good one.

First of all, let’s discuss the matchup. Cutler faces a New England secondary that, coming into Week 13, was giving up the 4th post fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. (Note: I am writing this on Monday night, so I do not know how the Patriots will fare against Mark Sanchez and the Jets, but 11 games of shoddy secondary play speaks more to me than whatever they do Monday night.)

And here is the other thing about the Patriots: they do not generate much of a pass rush from their front four. New England has to use creative blitzes to get pressure on the QB, and Cutler has been doing a much better job lately of hitting his hot receivers and not getting flustered by the blitz. Just look at his numbers: Cutler has 5 TDs and 1 INT over the last three games. For the season, he has 16 TDs, just 10 INTs (down from 26 last year), and he even has 189 rushing yards. Hey, every little bit helps right?

It’s taken me until now to really buy into the Bears as an NFC playoff contender, but they cannot be ignored any longer. The same is true with Jay Cutler. He is still capable of putting up a huge day every week – witness his 4 TD, 0 INT game in Week 12 – but what makes Cutler different this year is that he is minimizing mistakes and not putting up the truly awful games anymore. Let’s hope that continues. The matchup suggests it will.

Update: Yes, even after watching the Patriots dismantle the Jets last night, I still suggest that you start Jay Cutler. Don’t forget that the Patriots had extra time to prepare for this game. While the Jets did also (neither team had played since Thanksgiving), who do you think that benefits more – a Belichick team or a Rex Ryan team? Exactly. This week, the Pats will have less time to prepare, which could give mad scientist Mike Martz and advantage over the Pats’ young secondary. The Patriots still give up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and while they are improving as the season progresses, so is Cutler.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 14 projection: 245 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Joe Flacco starts against Houston. There you go.
• Josh Freeman has been surprisingly consistent all year long. He faces a Washington defense in Week 14 that typically gives up big days to opposing QBs.
• I had Kyle Orton listed here when I originally wrote this, but then pass-happy Josh McDaniels got fired, replaced by the Denver running backs coach. With Arizona boasting one of the worst run Ds in the NFL, I tend to think Knowshon Moreno will get plenty of touches, perhaps limiting Orton’s value somewhat. He’s not a bad start, but not quite as good as if McD was still around.
• Tom Brady. Can you possibly sit him?

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Cassel, Kansas City (at San Diego)

Matt Cassel has been a revelation this season. Coming into Week 13, Cassel had thrown 22 TDs and only 4 INTs. He had been, in a word, incredible. Certainly, this kind of production was unexpected from a guy who threw just 16 TDs last year along with 16 INTs.

In Week 13, Cassel did not continue his streak of 2-TD games. He had thrown at least two TDs in four straight games, but tossed just one in Week 13. He wasn’t terrible – 17-31, 196 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT – but it wasn’t the explosive day we’ve come to expect. This pedestrian production was somewhat surprising considering Cassel’s success against Denver early in the season and their #31 ranking in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.

In Week 14, Cassel has a much less promising matchup. He faces a San Diego defense that is #2 in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. And before you say that they played terribly on defense in Week 13, understand that Jason Campbell had just 117 yards and a TD…and that was above the Chargers’ season average for fantasy points allowed to QBs.

If Cassel is your #1 QB and you don’t have a decent backup, he’s okay to play this week. I list him here because I don’t think he’ll end up as a top 12 QB in my rankings, and he could be sat for someone like Josh Freeman, Kyle Orton, or Joe Flacco if that is a decision your roster provides.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week 14 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Sam Bradford faces a New Orleans pass D that doesn’t give up many passing TDs. This is a good week to sit the rookie.
• I know that a lot of people like Jon Kitna, and I have to admit that he’s playing a lot better than I thought he would filling in for Tony Romo, but I don’t like the matchup against Philadelphia.
• Tom Brady faces a Chicago defense that tops in the league at defending opposing QBs – in terms of fantasy points and TD passes allowed. It’s tough to sit him, but if you have another good-to-very-good option, this would be the week to use it. [Update: This hasn't been posted for 15 minutes yet and I already take this back. Tom Brady is carving up the Jets as we speak. I think he's hot enough right now that matchup is irrelevant. Play him!]

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (at Arizona)

This one is pretty easy…and now that I just said that, I’m sure it’s bound to blow up in my face. But, jinxes aside, consider this:

• Arizona gives up the most fantasy points to opposing running back, as Steven Jackson found out in Week 13 when he went for 102 yards and a TD against them.
• Knowshon is coming off one of his best days in the NFL, a career-high 161 yards on 23 carries. He didn’t get into the end zone, but he ran extremely well.
• Look at Moreno’s game log. He has now been worthy of starting for four straight weeks.
• His running backs coach was just installed as the head coach. Don’t you think he’ll get his guy plenty of touches against a team that is terrible against the run?

Add it all up and it makes Knowshon Moreno a pretty obvious start candidate in Week 14. The question will be if he makes the top 10 this week. I haven’t done the rankings yet, but I expect that he will.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 14 projection: 110 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 14:

• Chris Johnson owners, I know you’re frustrated, and there are reasons for concern for the balance of the season. Week 14 is not the week to lose patience, however, as the Titans face the porous Colts run D.
• I really like Tashard Choice, as I’ve been saying in the waiver wire sleeper picks column for the past three weeks. After his 100-yard performance in Week 13, I think Choice could get a 15-20 carries against Philly in Week 14. The Eagles are in the bottom half of the league in giving up fantasy points to opposing RBs. And yes, I like Choice over Felix Jones because Choice is the one who scores the TDs.
• LeGarrette Blount continues to earn our trust. He went over 100 yards in Week 13 against a very good Falcons run D and he also scored a TD. In Week 14, Blount faces a Redskins D that let the Giants run all over it in Week 13.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at San Francisco)

Marshawn, you aren’t fooling me.

I know that many of you will be impressed with Lynch’s 3-TD game in Week 13. While it was impressive, there are plenty of reasons for you to not buy into a late season resurgence for Lynch.

• In Week 13, Lynch and the Seahawks faced the Panthers, a team that is among the most generous to opposing running backs. In Week 14, Lynch and the Seahawks face the 49ers, who are among the least generous to opposing RBs.
• Look at Lynch’s game log, paying special attention to the weeks preceding his Week 13 outburst. Not only had he not had more than 13 carries in any of the five previous games, but he’d only scored once.

So, do I think Marshawn Lynch’s 3-TD game was an aberration? Yes, although that is admittedly pretty obvious. What is less obvious is if it suggests that Lynch will become useful down the stretch. I don’t think so. His previous five games speak much louder to me than one great game against a bad run D.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 14 projection: 12 carries, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 14:

• Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams seemed to be on the verge of breaking out coming into Week 13. Then they and the Dolphins offense sputtered against Cleveland. Against a Jets D that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, two guys who split carries don’t have a whole lot of value.
• Jonathan Stewart has a nice day against Seattle in Week 13 and has looked good since returning. The Seahawks, however, have a pretty poor run D. The Falcons, Stewart’s opponent in Week 14, do not. The going could be much tougher.
• Cedric Benson faces the Steelers in Week 14. Though he is coming off a 2-TD day against New Orleans, and though he scored against Pittsburgh earlier this year, it’s still not a matchup I like. You trust Cedric Benson at your own peril.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em WR: Anquan Boldin, Baltimore (at Houston)

It’s been a frustrating year for Anquan Boldin owners. Coming into Week 13, Boldin had only six TD catches on the season. Take away Boldin’s 3-TD, 142-yard outburst against Cleveland, and his numbers would be barely pedestrian. Basically, Boldin has been nothing more than a borderline starter for most of the season.

However, signs are pointing up for Boldin’s fantasy value, at least this week. Not only did he catch a long TD for the Ravens against Pittsburgh in Week 13, but he faces a Houston secondary that is among the worst in the league in containing opposing WRs. If you own Boldin, this is the week to play him. His next two games are against New Orleans and then Cleveland again; New Orleans has been good all year against the pass and Cleveland is vastly improved since the last time Boldin saw them.

But forget about the future right now. In this column we are concerned with Week 14. Take a look at how #1 WRs have done against Houston this year. It is pretty remarkable. I’d be shocked if Boldin didn’t put up solid numbers you this week.

Anquan Boldin fantasy football Week 14 projection: 8 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 14:

• I know that Dwayne Bowe did nothing in Week 13, and I know he faces a tough Chargers pass D in Week 14, and I know I told you to sit Matt Cassel above…but…I’d still start Bowe, who has been too good this year for us to be soured by one bad game. (And this comes from a guy who has always hated and distrusted Dwayne Bowe.)
• I like Earl Bennett a lot this week. He is becoming Jay Cutler’s go-to guy, and the matchup against New England is very promising.
• Calvin Johnson continues to prove how amazing he is. Against the Bears stingy D and with a 3rd stringer in at QB, MegaTron still got into the end zone and provided nice value. Just keep him in your lineups. Please. Even if I change my mind later this week, tell me to shut the hell up and still start him. Okay? Okay.
• You know that you’re starting Greg Jennings. Also consider both Donald Driver and James Jones as a decent WR #3 options as well.
• Mike Williams TB against Washington is a nice start this week.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em WR: Any Tennessee Titans WR (v Indianapolis)

Yes, the Colts have a pretty good pass defense, which contributes to this rare team selection. More important though is the anemic recent history of the Titans passing game. Remember how Randy Moss was supposed to make the Titans more explosive? Yeah, well it hasn’t happened.

Kenny Britt is supposed to be back in Week 14, which will muddy up the Tennessee passing waters even more. And if we learned anything from the returns of Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson after long layoffs, it’s that you are usually well served to wait a week or two and let players get back up to game speed.

What Britt’s presence will do is take targets away from Moss and Nate Washington, neither of whom have done much of anything lately. We all blamed Rusty Smith after their poor Week 12 performance, but they were just as bad against the poor Jags secondary with Kerry Collins under center in Week 14.

To be perfectly frank, it seems to me like the Titans might be quitting on the 2010 season. With all the turmoil between Jeff Fisher and Vince Young, plus the five game losing streak, this is starting to seem like a lost season for the Titans. Going up against a desperate Colts team on a short week, what reason do you have to trust any of these guys? Sit ‘em all. You won’t be sorry.

Tennessee Titans WRs fantasy football Week 14 projection: 8 receptions, 90 yards, 0 TDs total

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 14:

• Mario Manningham really hasn’t played all that well with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks out. Perhaps he is just not cut out to be a #1 WR? Against the resurgent Minnesota Vikings D, I wouldn’t want Manningham to be anything more than a #3 WR, and I wouldn’t mind being able to sit him down this week.
• If Brandon Marshall comes back this week, don’t get excited. Not only will he have to face Darrelle Revis, but he’ll still have crappy Chad Henne as his QB.
• I’m not a big fan of the St. Louis WRs this week – namely Danario Alexander and Danny Amendola – because New Orleans’ pass D has been very stingy this year.
• Stevie Johnson had a rough outing in Week 13, a week after dropping the game-winning TD in OT. In Week 14, he’ll probably be blanketed by Browns rookie Joe Haden, who is becoming one of the league’s best cover corners as the season goes on.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em TE: Vernon Davis, San Francisco (v Seattle)

He’s baaack.

Well, hopefully.

Vernon Davis was outstanding in Week 13, turning four receptions into 100+ yards and a TD. In Week 14, Davis gets to face a Seahawks defense that is not good against the pass. Though they have held opposing tight ends in check decently this year, the 49ers use Davis more like a WR on some of the deeper routes where he gets most of his production.

It’s clear that Troy Smith and the 49ers have been making a more concerted effort to get Davis the ball over the last couple of weeks. In this must-win battle for the 49ers, I expect that to continue, especially if Alex Smith ends up back as the starter. He is more accurate than Troy Smith, and looks to Davis more.

Vernon Davis fantasy football Week 14 projection: 5 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 14:

• Benjamin Watson faces a Buffalo defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Coming off a 100-yards, TD performance he is a solid option this week.
• Carolina is among the more generous defenses to opposing TEs. That bodes well for Tony Gonzalez this week.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em TE: Joel Dreessen, Houston (v Baltimore)

Dreeseen has been a solid option as of late. He’s been worthy of starting three straight weeks, which isn’t bad for a 2nd-stringer only playing because of Owen Daniels’ injury. However, the signs aren’t very positive for Week 14.

First off, Daniels is expected to return. There is no telling how many targets he will get, but Daniels presence certainly will reduce Dreessen’s role some. Secondly, the matchup is terrible. No defense shuts down opposing TEs more than the Ravens.

Joel Dreessen fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 20 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 14:

• Visanthe Shiancoe just isn’t getting the red zone looks he got last year. He couldn’t take advantage of a Bills defense that has given up a lot of points to opposing TEs, so what makes us think he’ll do it against the Giants, who do a good job of minimizing TEs?
• Brandon Pettigrew has been much better with Shaun Hill in the lineup this year. Without him, Pettigrew’s numbers have suffered. He had 5 catches for 36 yards against the Bears in Week 13, and I think that’s about as much as we can expect from him right now.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina)

You know that I love targeting whatever defense is facing the Carolina Panthers and Jimmy Clausen. With the emergence of Mike Goodson and the return of Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers have been putting up a little bit more fight lately. Still, anytime you can face an inexperienced and unproductive QB like Jimmy Clausen, you have to like your chances.

Here is the other reason I like Atlanta this week: the strength of their defense is against the run. Yes, LeGarratte Blount has a solid day in Week 13, but the Falcons have still been very consistent containing opposing running games this year. Running the ball is all that Carolina can do. If the Falcons inhibit their ability to do so, it could put the game in Jimmy Clausen’s hands. That’s a great recipe for any defense.

Atlanta Falcons fantasy football Week 14 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 14:

• I like both the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks defenses in Week 14. I don’t expect a particularly high scoring game, and there should be plenty of sacks and turnovers to go around.
• Buffalo’s offense has struggled for two straight weeks now. The Cleveland Browns defense continues to improve. I like the Browns on the road this week against Buffalo.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Tennessee Titans (v Indianapolis)

Call this one a hunch.

Tennessee’s defense has not been the reason it’s been losing lately. In fact, the Titans have held their last three opponents under 20 pts. And with the Colts coming in having given up four Pick 6′s in the last two games, you might think Tennessee’s D is one you want to play. And maybe it is, if you look at things strictly based on statistics, but I wouldn’t.

You can chalk this one up to my belief in Peyton Manning. I think he will be extra cautious with the football and limit his mistakes. I also think that the short week benefits the Colts more than it benefits the punchless Titans, who will be facing their first week playing for nothing. The Colts are still very much alive in the AFC South race and have not stopped fighting despite playing poorly. The Titans, other than Cortland Finnegan obviously, seem to have stopped fighting.

I believe Peyton and the Colts get their offense going in primetime. Do I have more than a hunch to base this off of? Not particularly, other than what I’ve already stated. But sometimes you have to trust your gut, and my gut says stay away from the Titans until they prove they haven’t quit on the season.

Tennessee Titans fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 14:

• I like St. Louis‘ defense when it plays at home. I do not like it as much on the road, especially not against Drew Brees and the Saints.
• I trusted San Diego‘s defense last week and they did nothing. Against a very balanced, explosive Chiefs offense in Week 14, I’m not too excited about trusting the Chargers again.

The comment section awaits. Make ‘em good questions this week. Let’s all get into the playoffs and do some damage!

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks

With Week 13 close to being in the books, I am sure that we will have lost another chunk of our readership. Not because the advice we’ve given has been poor (at least, I hope not!), but because with only one week left in most leagues’ regular seasons, the number of people scrambling for roster advice will now be diminished as more teams get eliminated.

And while my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* is hanging by the thinnest of threads, I am still in playoff contention of each of my five other leagues. Thus, you know I’m scouring the waiver wire for any player who will give me an advantage.

This column includes the fruits of that research, and it will hopefully assist you in finding some guys who can help you get into the playoffs and do well once you’re there.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks

Remember, a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues to be included in this post. Additionally, I primarily focus on players’ values for Week 14, although in certain cases I’ll recommend players who may not be immediately valuable this week but who stand out as valuable long-term acquisitions.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: QB

David Garrard, Jacksonville (43%, v Oakland)

David Garrard is never a sexy pick at QB, and with good reason. His career has been marred by inconsistency, and he doesn’t have receiving targets that make you expect big things. But a funny thing has happened in 2010: David Garrard has been a pretty solid, consistent fantasy option at QB.

Not only does he have six games in which he’s passed for two or more touchdowns, but he’s also run for four touchdowns. This ability has given him some value even in weeks when his passing has been non-existent (Week 13, for example). Garrard has become the kind of QB who won’t win matchups for you, but he won’t lose them either.

If you have a really good stable of RBs and WRs and just need consistent double digit production from your QB, David Garrard is proving to be a guy you can trust to get it for you.

As you know, usually I try to list at least 2-3 guys here, but there are no other QBs owned in less than 50% of leagues that I feel comfortable recommending. Some of the other options are:

• Jon Kitna is not a terrible option, but Philadelphia does a pretty decent job against the pass and is adept at turning mistakes into picks – especially if Asante Samuel is back.
• Chad Henne faces the Jets…hell no. Henne sucks.
• Drew Stanton was serviceable against the Bears, but Green Bay’s defense is also very good and should contain him.
• Matt Hasselbeck has a decent matchup against the 49ers, but he hasn’t proven he can be trusted against even bad defensive teams.
• Tarvaris Jackson is going to be a hot name this week, but he faces a Giants D in Week 14 that will get after him with a strong pass rush and that gives up fewer passing yards per game than any other defense.

See what I mean? I wouldn’t go fishing on the waiver wire for a QB this week. Go with who ya got.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: RB

Ryan Torain, Washington (39%, v Tampa Bay)

Don’t forget about Ryan Torain; his head coach Mike Shanahan certainly hasn’t. Last week, Shanahan was discussing his running backs and remarked how much he missed Torain, as well he should. Since Torain’s injury, Keiland Williams had one decent game. Otherwise, Washington has gotten next to nothing from its running game.

Remember, in the last two full games Torain played, Weeks 6 and 7, he topped 100 yards in each and scored two TDs. With Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Jacksonville coming up on the schedule, there are opportunities for Torain to put up similar numbers should he be healthy enough to play.

Speaking of his health, Torain was close to playing this week. You’ll need to track his health leading up to kickoff in Week 14, but I expect him to play. Assuming he does, all signs point to Torain resuming his role as the team’s feature back.

Tashard Choice, Dallas (8%, v Philadelphia)

I have not been right about everything this season, not by a long shot. One thing I am starting to look prescient about, however, is the potential emergence of Tashard Choice as the 2010 version of Jerome Harrison (i.e. a running back that comes out of nowhere to put up huge numbers down the stretch).

With the Cowboys out of playoff contention, and Marion Barber being both ineffective and injured, Choice is getting a chance, and he’s coming through. He got a goalline carry in Week 12 and scored. In Week 13, Choice split carries with Felix Jones and took advantage of a weak Indy run defense.

Moving forward, I think we can expect Choice to continue to get opportunities. Seeing as how his career yard-per-carry average is over 5 yards (just like Jerome Harrison’s before he busted out last year) the signs are positive that Choice should be able to capitalize on his chances.

Christopher Ivory, New Orleans (30%, v St. Louis)

Here is another name that should be familiar to you if you read this column regularly. All Ivory does is continue to prove me right, and continue to make Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas afterthoughts in New Orleans. He has scored five TDs over the past three weeks and is putting up good yardage totals as well.

Granted, the upcoming matchups aren’t stellar (v STL, @ ATL, @ BAL), but Ivory plays for an offense that produces scoring opportunities on a regular basis. Ivory doesn’t need to run for 100 yards to have value; he’s getting the redzone carries and proving he can take advantage of them while also proving that he has the breakaway speed to get big runs that can compensate for otherwise pedestrian yardage totals.

Obviously the presence of Pierre Thomas would hurt Ivory; but will the PT Cruiser ever be healthy? Who knows. Even if he is, Ivory has done enough to continue getting double digit touches per week. In the Saints offense, that’s oftentimes all you need to have significant fantasy value.

Other names to keep an eye on:

• Anthony Dixon may have more value than we thought. He split carries with Brian Westbrook in Week 13 (nine each) and will get the goalline carries too. Looks to me like he has just as much value, if not more, than Westbrook.
• Rashad Jennings scored again in Week 13, his second straight game with a TD. He’ll only get a max of about 10 carries, but he’s proving he can maximize the value of those. If you’re desperate, he’s an option.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: WR

Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland (13%, at Buffalo)

Quietly, a Cleveland wide receiver is starting to emerge as a low-end #3 WR in deep leagues. Second-year man Mohamed Massaquoi now has three straight games in which he’s caught four passes. He has had at least 51 yards in each game, topping out at 81 yards in Week 13 against a pretty good Miami secondary.

Massaquoi’s TD potential limited. He only has five in his career and he plays in an offense that does not provide many scoring opportunities for WRs. However, the Vikings were able to attack the Buffalo secondary with Tarvaris Jackson, and Cincinnati’s secondary has not played at the high level that was expected. Those are the Browns next two opponents. If you need 6-8 safe points from your third wide receiver slot, MoMass is starting to become an option you can trust.

Earl Bennett, Chicago (5%, v New England)

Earl Bennett has had two straight outstanding weeks. He caught 4 passes for 56 yards and 2 TDs in the Bears’ Week 12 win over Philly, then in Week 13 he caught 7 balls for 104 yards. Clearly, Bennett and his college teammate Jay Cutler have a nice rapport going as the season moves into its final month.

In Week 14, the Bears get to face a defense that a) doesn’t put much pressure on the quarterback from its front four, and b) that gives up plenty of fantasy points to opposing WRs and QBs. With Bennett emerging as the top option for Cutler, he’s a guy you want in your Week 14 lineups.

Anthony Armstrong, Washington (6%, v Tampa Bay)

You should recognize this name from past waiver wire sleeper picks columns. I’ve mentioned Armstrong before as a guy in yardage leagues who has a lot of potential because of his very high yard-per-catch average, which was an eye-popping 21.8 before Week 13. Granted, he only had 25 catches and 1 TD, but that’s still an impressive number that suggests plenty of big play potential.

Finally in Week 13 Armstrong put it all together. He caught a season-high 6 passes, a season-high 97 yards, and he caught a TD. Granted, he did a lot of his damage late when the game was already decided, but it came against one of the league’s best pass defenses. With the stellar Aqib Talib likely to be blanketing Santana Moss next week, I expect Armstrong to have the opportunity to make some more big plays.

Other names to know:

• Davone Bess (48%, at NYJ) continues to be a solid PPR option, especially with Brandon Marshall nursing a tender hamstring and Brian Hartline now having a finger injury.
• Danny Amendola (48%, at NO) and Robert Meachem (45%, v STL) are names you should recognize from past columns; both are solid options on a weekly basis.
• Ben Obomanu (17%, at SF) continues to be a top target from Matt Hasselbeck and the 49ers will give up passing yards.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: TE

Benjamin Watson, Cleveland (29%, at Buffalo)

Watson was outstanding in Week 13, amassing 100 receiving yards on 10 catches. He also got into the endzone for the third time this season. His big week came against a Miami defense that will give up yardage to opposing tight ends; luckily for Watson, Buffalo will do so as well.

Watson is still a bit inconsistent (he has a catchless game and a 1-catch game in his last five) but he has the weekly potential to go off like he did in Week 13. If you need a tight end this week, you could do plenty worse than Watson.

Jimmy Graham, New Orleans (1%, v St. Louis)

This guy has big time athletic ability and big time potential, both because of that athletic ability and because of the offense he plays in. Graham only had three catches in Week 13, but they went for 72 yards. That’s pretty damn good for a tight end.

Graham’s potential is limited by his inexperience and the presence of Jeremy Shockey, but he is emerging as a new tool in Drew Brees’ voluminous toolbox. If you’re in a pinch, the guy has big play potential that is worth taking a flyer on.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: D/ST

Seattle Seahawks (47%, at San Francisco)

This is not an endorsement of the Seahawks’ defense, but more an acknowledgment of the fact that the San Francisco 49ers offense is far less than explosive. If you need a defense, there is a good chance the Seahawks won’t kill you, simply because the 49ers don’t have the ability to kill them.

Cleveland Browns (26%, at Buffalo)

The Browns were pretty impressive on defense against a Miami offense that had taken the Raiders to the woodshed in Week 12. As the season has progressed, the Browns’ young secondary has matured and is making things extremely tough on opposing QBs and WRs. That spells trouble for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills WRs, and should make the Browns a solid if unspectacular option in Week 14.

If you have any specific questions, pose them below in the comment section.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

I enjoyed Week 10.

Not only did I hit more than I missed with my start/sit picks and comment advice in Week 10, but my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League also exploded for an easy and much-needed victory over the sublimely named Sweaty Ditkas.

What I loved best about my win in BFL2010 is that the two guys who carried me were unheralded players that I recommended to a lot of you in Week 10: Fred Jackson and Mike Thomas. There is nothing I love more than when I follow my own advice and it works out…because that means it’s working out for many of you too.

Just like these Week 11 start em, sit em picks will. (At least, that’s the gameplan…)

Before we delve into the Week 11 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then recap of how I did with my Week 10 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 10 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: David Garrard, Marshawn Lynch,
• Start em misses: Steve Johnson, Marcedes Lewis, Minnesota Vikings D
• Sit em hits: Brett Favre, LT and Shonn Greene, Brandon Marshall, Baltimore Ravens D
• Sit em misses: Jermaine Gresham

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 11.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em QB: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (v Houston)

Look, you might consider it cheap or obvious to keep picking the QB facing Houston’s defense as my start ‘em QB. And maybe it is. But you know what else it is? Correct.

Last week I told you to start David Garrard, not a guy you automatically start each week, and he went out and threw for 342 yards and 2 TDs. He only had 7 incomplete passes. Sure, one of his TDs was that fluky game-winning Hail Mary toss, but guess what? Such a completion is not so fluky against the worst pass defense in memory.

Houston has now given up 22 TD passes in just 9 games, and they have only intercepted 5 passes. For good measure, they also relinquish 300+ passing yards per game.

Enter Mark Sanchez and the Jets passing game.

After a solid start to the year (8 TDs, 0 picks through five games) Sanchez has struggled recently (2 TDs, 5 INTs during Weeks 6-9). Then he came through with a nice effort in the Jets’ OT win over the Browns in Week 10, tossing two TD passes (plus an INT). He also passed for 299 yards and threw 44 passes; and that attempt total is what makes me like Sanchez this week.

Despite the Jets being a “running team” and Sanchez struggling recently, he has thrown 44, 39, and 38 passes in the Jets’ last few games. If he throws the ball even close to that much against Houston, the numbers suggest he’s a virtual lock for 250+ yards and 2 TDs, and that’s a conservative estimate.

Until Houston holds an opposing QB to stats that you wouldn’t have wanted for your fantasy team, keep playing the QB they are facing. With Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and LT out of the backfield, Sanchez has weapons. In Week 11 he also has a perfect matchup.

Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 11 projection: 295 passing yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 11:

• Peyton Manning has thrown one TD and two INTs over the past two weeks. Well guess what? He’s still averaging nearly two TD passes per game this year, rarely gets picked off, and has a nice matchup against an inconsistent pass D. Do not sit Peyton.
• The Giants got drilled by Dallas in Week 10, and Eli Manning threw two more INTs, but he also threw for 373 yards and two TDs. Eli now has 19 TD passes this season and has thrown at least two five straight games. Philly is a middle-of-the-pack pass D, so play Eli.
• The Cleveland Browns have given up 19 TD passes in 9 games this year. Though David Garrard isn’t a sexy name, he has taken advantage of good matchups this year. His run of at least two TD passes in four of his last five games is proof of this. He’s a solid start option this week, especially at home

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at St. Louis)

Matt Ryan has thrown 7 TDs and just one INT over the last three weeks. Knowing that, you are probably wondering why in the world I’d tell you to sit him, and against St. Louis to boot.

Well here is why:

• Ryan has thrown 5 TDs and 2 INTs in his four road games this year. That’s not terrible, but it pales in comparison to his 11 TDs in five home games.
• The St. Louis Rams have given up only 10 TD passes in their 9 games this season. They also play much better defense at home than they do on the road.

Ryan is not necessarily a bad play. He has Roddy White to throw to, and most likely will throw a TD or two, but with the full player pool available I just don’t think Ryan is a top-12 option. He’s been nothing more than a mediocre fantasy QB on the road during his career, and against a defense that plays significantly better in its home stadium, that’s a trend worth respecting.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 11 projection: 235 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 11:

• You’re watching Brett Favre throw INT after INT right? Against Green Bay in Week 11, he stays on your bench.
• Josh Freeman had yet another good game in Week 10, but I don’t think he’s a top-12 option in Week 11. Playing at San Francisco’s improving D, Freeman could struggle to put up more than one TD.
• Jay Cutler had a solid day in Week 10, throwing 3 TDs (but also two INTs). The Dolphins will give up some big passing plays and TDs, but they also keep the yardage low and can rush the passer. I’m not a big fan of Cutler on Thursday night.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em RB: Felix Jones, Dallas (v Detroit)

Few players have fluctuated in my mind more this season than Felix Jones. I thought he was a great mid-round sleeper pick in the preseason (though I wasn’t buying the 2nd/3rd round hype), then I stayed relatively confident in him through the season’s first 6 weeks, and then I finally soured enough on Felix that I dropped him in every league I had him.

And now I wish I had him back, at least for this week.

The firing of Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett’s insistence on discipline and accountability seemed to light a fire under the Cowboys in Week 10. This was definitely evident with Jones. With 17 touches (3 receptions), Felix accumulated 136 yards and a TD. That is an excellent day at the office, and what we all expected from Felix before the season started.

In Week 11, Jones and the Cowboys play the Detroit Lions…the same Detroit Lions that have lost 1,000 straight games on the road (only a slight exaggeration); the same Detroit Lions that give up 130.4 yards rushing per game and at least 1 TD; and, yes, the same Detroit Lions that allowed Fred Jackson to do his Adrian Peterson impression last week (170 total yards, 2 TDs).

Understand this: I’m not jumping on the Felix Jones bandwagon for the rest of the season. Dallas’ O-Line still sucks and Jones still remains an inconsistent talent, but I saw life in those legs again last week, and the matchup is very favorable. This is the week to play Felix.

Felix Jones fantasy football Week 11 projection: 60 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 55 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 11:

• Any healthy San Diego running backs are good starts this week by virtue of their matchup against the Broncos. Ryan Mathews has been dinged up, so check his injury status, but I like Mike Tolbert this week and I even like Darren Sproles in deeper leagues.
• I know that Darren McFadden is facing Pittsburgh this week, which is usually an auto-sit, but Cedric Benson scored a TD against the Steelers in Week 9 and the Pats rushed for 100+ yards against them in Week 10. It seems like injuries may be catching up to Pittsburgh, and McFadden has been among the very best running backs this year. Keep him in there. He’s earned that kind of trust.
• Don’t question playing Jamaal Charles anymore. He’s a top 10 back, especially now that he’s getting the bulk of the carries. Against Arizona? Oh yeah. The Cardinals made Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch fantasy-relevant last week. Even Thomas Jones has some value this week.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em RB: Jahvid Best, Detroit (at Dallas)

This one really isn’t hard.

Realize the following about Jahvid Best, who came storming out of the gates with 5 TDs during the season’s first two weeks:

• He hasn’t scored since.
• He has not surpassed 59 yards rushing since.
• He’s averaging less than 4.0 yards per rush.

There just isn’t much to like about Best right now. If he couldn’t produce last week, against the leagues’ worst run D (Buffalo), then when will he produce?

The Cowboys held both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to less than 4.0 yards per carry in Week 10 and kept both out of the end zone. On the season, the Cowboys have allowed only 6 rushing TDs. With Jahvid Best still perhaps not totally recovered from his toe injury, and his Lions having to play at Dallas, now is the time to sit him (unless you’re in a deep PPR league).

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 11 projection: 45 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 11:

• Okay, I’m not going to tell you to sit Michael Turner, per se, but I do think you should consider it if you have a deep stable of backs. Turner only has 1 TD on the road this year and faces a Rams D that has given up just 3 rushing TDs all year and that plays much better at home.
• I know that everyone is excited about Reggie Bush‘s return to the Saints lineup, but I still would not consider playing him unless you’re in a PPR league.
• Don’t get too pumped up about Cadillac Williams scoring a TD last week. He only had 7 touches and faces a tough SF run D in Week 11.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Arizona)

It is my hope that every consistent reader of MSF Fantasy Sports would feel comfortable saying the following about me: “Jerod is not afraid nor ashamed to admit when he is wrong.” I think if you are going to put yourself out there as a fantasy football analyst, it is a prerequisite that you be able to admit mistakes, because they happen often.

One of my biggest errors this season is being late to the Dwayne Bowe party. Sure, I feel like I had good reasons to withhold my trust, but I know that I’ve told people sit him during weeks when Bowe has exploded. Well no more. Dwayne Bowe has 9 TDs in 9 games and has now made a believer out of me.

Specific to Week 11, Bowe and the Chiefs face an Arizona defense that gives up nearly 270 passing yards per game and 1.5+ TDs per game. For perspective, Big Mike Williams from Seattle has looked like an All Pro against the Cardinals in two games this year. Dwayne Bowe is much better than Mike Williams, and I expect Bowe to follow his anomalous, garbage time induced 13-catch, 186-yard performance with another solid, though less spectacular, outing in Week 11.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 11 projection: 6 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 11:

• Dez Bryant is a top 20 WR from here on out and a weekly must start, okay? Okay. Wow, what a talent. Now his QB and play-caller are clearly committed to getting the ball in his hands. Smart.
• Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are facing Houston. That really should be all I need to say.
• Everyone needs to stop sleeping on Danny Amendola. He’s scored in three straight weeks and has an ultra-accurate QB throwing to him. This is a top-30 WR, easy.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em WR: Big Mike Williams, Seattle (at New Orleans)

I already know that tons of you are going to ask me about Big Mike Williams (that’s now the new way to differentiate between he and the Better Mike Williams in Tampa Bay) and with good reason. Big Mike had an 11-catch, 145 yard outburst in Week 10. This was his third game in 2010 with 10 or more catches.

The problem? Two of those 10-catch games came against Arizona, which has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. In no other game but one has Big Mike caught more than four passes. That is the definition of feast or famine.

In Week 11, Big Mike faces a New Orleans defense that has been very good against the pass. The Saints lead the league in both passing yards against (166. 3 yards) and TDs against (6). While Big Mike did a nice job against the Bears’ very good pass D in Week 6 (10 catches, 123 yards), his six worthless weeks speak louder to me than his three good ones…especially against the Saints.

Big Mike Williams fantasy football Week 11 projection: 3 catches, 31 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 11:

• I did not like Brandon Marshall in Week 10 against Tennessee and I definitely don’t like him against the Bears in Week 11. Until the Dolphins prove they can get Marshall in the end zone, I’m not going to trust him. He’s not a terrible play, but he’s not a slam-dunk #2 WR anymore.
• I know that Sidney Rice will be back in Week 11, and everyone is excited about his return, but the Packers have given up only 9 TDs all year, and Rice has yet to play a down. I’d prefer to avoid this matchup and give him a week to test the hip and re-acclimate to game speed.
• Wes Welker “exploded” for 8 receptions and 89 yards in Week 10. I say “exploded” because Mr. PPR hadn’t caught more than 4 passes since Week 6. Welker still hasn’t scored since Week 2 though, and faces an Indy team that he has not had great success against in the past (24 receptions, 190 yards, 1 TD in four career games).

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (at Dallas)

I do not like a lot of Detroit guys this week, especially because they are on the road. However, because the Cowboys have not covered tight ends well at all this year, I think Pettigrew is an outstanding choice. Consider that Kevin Boss went 5-81 with a TD against the Cowboys in Week 10 and two games prior Marcedes Lewis caught two TDs.

With Shaun Hill at QB for Detroit, who clearly targets Pettigrew more than Matthew Stafford, I expect a big game from the second-year emerging star.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 11 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 11:

• In Week 10, Troy Smith remembered that he has one of the best receiving weapons in football at his disposal in Vernon Davis. VD had a spectacular TD wiped off the board because of a penalty; otherwise his 4-catch, 79-yard day would have been outstanding. Expect more goodness against Tampa Bay.
• Jacob Tamme has not caught fewer than 6 passes or 64 yards in any of the three games he’s started. He also has two TDs. He’s a must start. Trust it.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (at San Francisco)

I know that K2 caught his first TD of the season in Week 10, but he had only four receptions in the previous two games combined. While San Francisco has been susceptible to the pass this year (13 TDs), most of the damage has been done by WRs.

The 49ers have athletic linebackers who can cover tight ends, and with a full player pool to choose from Winslow just hasn’t proven himself enough to be a solid start option.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 11 projection: 4 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 11:

• Lots of people are going nuts about Rob Gronkowski after his 3-TD outburst in Week 10. If we know anything about New England, it’s that different guys step up each week. I actually like Aaron Hernandez more in Week 10, a guy whose athleticism may help him duplicate what Jermaine Gresham did to the Colts in Week 10.
• Anthony Fasano had a real nice Week 10 with 100+ yards and a TD. Facing Chicago in Week 11, I don’t expect any kind of reprise of those numbers.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em Defense: Baltimore Ravens (at Carolina)

The Baltimore Ravens do not have an elite defense anymore, not from a fantasy standpoint nor a real-life standpoint. The Ravens do, however, still have play-makers like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata that can take advantage of good matchups.

With Tony Pike likely to start for Carolina if fellow rookie Jimmy Clausen is not recovered from his concussion, you know that the hungry, rested Ravens will be ready to tee off. This is a no-brainer.

Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Week 11 projection: 13 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 3 TOs, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 11:

• Kansas City‘s defense was embarrassed by the Broncos in Week 10. Considering Todd Haley’s fire and Romeo Crennel’s success as a defensive coordinator, I think this young and talented  unit rebounds against Derek Anderson and the Fightin’ Larry Fitzgeralds in Week 11.
• The Seahawks are playing on the road, have an injured QB with a sucky backup, and will face the best pass defense in football. Yes, those New Orleans Saints are a must-start defense right now.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em Defense: Washington Redskins (at Tennessee)

I am writing this while watching the Monday Night Football game between the Eagles and Redskins. As we speak, the scoreboard reads 35-0 and there are still 14:00+ minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Umm…

I know that Washington has play-makers like DeAngelo Hall who will get picks and score touchdowns, but those same play-makers also give up lots of big plays and TDs. I don’t trust Washington anymore and would be fine with you dropping them at this point, even against a team with QB turmoil like Tennessee.

Washington Redskins fantasy football Week 11 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 11:

• The Cleveland Browns defense has been better as of late, but don’t get cute. This isn’t a defense that gets lots of sacks or turnovers, and the Jaguars offense is, dare I say it, damn close to a juggernaut right now.
• Stay away from the Indy and New England defenses this week. It’s Peyton Manning v Tom Brady. Expect points, and lots of ‘em.

Okay, there you have it. The Week 11 start em, sit em pick and projections are in the books. Now the comment section awaits your questions.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Remember in the movie Men In Black how they had that little device that could wipe someone’s memory clean? After last week, I wouldn’t mind someone doing that to me.

Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.

While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.

But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.

I am writing this while watching Monday Night Football. I need a 20 point night from Mike Wallace to pull out a win in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and with the Steelers up 17-7 and Wallace not having a TD yet, that seems unlikely. If I lose, I’ll be 5-4 and in pretty serious need of a winning streak to ensure I at least make the playoffs.

Remember, the stakes are the Super Bowl, so you know I’m overturning every stone in an effort to win – like my last minute of pick up of Seyi Atirotutu on Sunday (see, it wasn’t all bad!). The upshot is that I regurgitate all of this research into these columns, hopefully helping you out in the process.

Before we delve into the Week 10 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 9 (ugh) with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack. Last week’s winner was commenter nik. Who will win this week?
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 9 recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Eli Manning,
• Start ‘em misses: Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Todd Heap, New England D
• Sit ‘em hits: Seattle Seahawks D
• Sit ‘em misses: Matthew Stafford, Steve Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Cedric Benson

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: the following teams are on bye in Week 10:

• San Diego Chargers
• Oakland Raiders
• New Orleans Saints
• Green Bay Packers
  

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (v Houston)

If you read this week’s waiver wire sleepers column, you know that David Garrard is my “gold star pickup of the week.” Why? Well look no further than the Houston Texans pass defense. This porous unit has given up 20 TDs in 8 games this year, and is one of the most targetable defensive units I can remember in my history playing fantasy football.

Also, Garrard has not been a slouch this year, despite his shoddy reputation. Sure, he’s been inconsistent, but that’s who he is. David Garrard is inconsistent. It’s a tenet of fantasy football.

But he has thrown for at least two TDs in four of his seven starts this year, and the games he struggled in were against the solid pass defenses of Tennessee, Philly, and San Diego. Against more suspect pass defenses like Dallas and Buffalo, Garrard has taken advantage. And suspect would be a kind way of describing Houston’s pass D.

Worth noting as well: Garrard has historically been much better at home than away. He is absolutely a must start this week. He’ll be in my top 10, the question is will he be top 5?

David Garrard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• Michael Vick against Washington’s generous pass defense is an obvious play.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick actually had a decent showing against a very tough Bears defense. He faces the much more forgiving Detroit secondary in Week 10.
• Whoever starts for the Lions – Matthew Stafford or Shaun Hill (but not Drew Stanton, I don’t trust him) – is a solid start against the Buffalo Bills.
• Eli Manning is a very good start at home against Dallas. He torched them a few weeks ago and the Giants are red hot right now. The Cowboys are the opposite of red hot.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at Chicago)

I know that you Brett Favre owners probably had the old man on your bench in Week 9 (a wise move, despite the result) and had to watch him put up two TDs and 446 passing yards. You are probably itching to get him in your lineup this week, especially if you have Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, or Aaron Rodgers.

Unfortunately for you (or perhaps fortunately), I am here to throw some cold water on you with the following realities:

• The Bears have allowed only five passing touchdowns all season
• Favre continues to start and finish most games, but he gets older and more dinged up each week. Don’t you think the physical Bears will try everything they can to smack their old nemesis around? Favre staying healthy is a major risk each week for the rest of the season.
• The numbers Brett put up last week were against a very weak Cardinals pass D. Sidney Rice is not expected to be back at full strength by next Sunday (though he should play) meaning Favre will have to go against the Bears’ secondary with Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Greg Camarillo again.

I absolutely think Favre needs to be the starter for the Vikings, and I think he has a shot to put up more consistent numbers once Sidney Rice gets back to full strength, but with so many good “second tier” QB options like Garrard and Fitzpatrick out there, why risk playing Favre when he is throwing so many INTs and so banged up? I just don’t like the risk/return here.

Brett Favre fantasy football Week 10 projection: 275 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• I would like to apologize to everyone for having Chad Henne ranked so highly last week. I’m done with him. He sucks.
• Carson Palmer against the Indy pass D? No thanks. At least, not top 10. He did have another solid game against Pittsburgh, I just don’t totally trust him yet.
• Don’t get cute and think you should start Colt McCoy because he’s playing well in real life. The Browns’ offense does not produce passing TDs, and the Jets have lots of talent in their secondary.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at Arizona)

You probably think I’m crazy. Why would I tell you to start a running back who has 57 yards on 20 carries with no touchdowns the last two weeks? Well, to be honest, it’s all about the matchup.

The Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. The Cardinals give up in the neighborhood of 130 rushing yards per game. They have also given up nine rushing TDs this season (and it should be 10 if the Vikings would have given Adrian Peterson one more goalline try in the 4th quarter…but I digress.)

So while Lynch has been a major disappointment the last couple of weeks, and will continue to be up and down, this is one of the “up” weeks. Hopefully Matt Hasselbeck will be back too, which should help the Seattle offense provide more scoring opportunities for its running backs.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 10 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• I’m not a huge fan of the matchup versus the Jets, but Peyton Hillis is officially a must start now. How can he not be?
• I didn’t like Cedric Benson last week against Pittsburgh, but I do like him this week against Indy.
• Fred Jackson is a sneaky-good start against the relatively forgiving Lions’ D this week, and CJ Spiller is even worth a flyer in deeper leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, New York Jets (at Cleveland)

Yes, that’s right. I’m telling you to sit the running backs from a 6-2 team against the Cleveland Browns. Here’s why:

• Surprisingly, the Browns have only given up one rushing TD this season. That is the best in the NFL. Granted, the Browns D isn’t better than the Steelers or Jets (which have given multiple ground TDs this season), but they only give up around 100 yards per game rushing.
• Against the Patriots in Week 9, the Browns stuffed a good goalline running game numerous times. That’s a good sign, and shows that the 1 TD rushing isn’t just a fluke.
• LT has just 101 yards over the last two weeks on 33 carries. He hasn’t scored. That’s about what he was doing last year for the Chargers when everyone said he was washed up. (Hmm…just saying.) He has caught 11 passes over the last two weeks though, so you probably DO want to play LT in PPR leagues.
• Greene has just 25 carries over the last three weeks. Even though his yard per carry average is better than LT’s, he simply isn’t getting the touches.
• The Jets produced through the air in Week 9, which is how you beat this Browns’ D. They consistently give up multiple TDs to opposing QBs; the running backs just don’t get involved in the action.

Now watch LT scored two TDs and Greene score one. Wouldn’t that just be appropriate!

Still, I think the stats and trends point to this being a tough matchup for LT and Greene. Plan accordingly.

LaDainian Tomlinson fantasy football Week 10 projection: 50 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Shonn Green fantasy football Week 10 projection: 50 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• The Minnesota Vikings have been pretty good against the run this year, giving up less than 100 yards per game and only 6 TDs. With Matt Forte’s dismal performance against Buffalo’s awful run D, and Chester Taylor starting to steal opportunities, it’s time to consider alternate options if you have them.
• The Chiefs are also giving up around 100 yards rushing per game. While the Raiders scored two TDs on the ground against them in Week 9, one was by the QB and they did a pretty good job of containing Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. That doesn’t bode well for Knowshon Moreno in Week 10.
• In Week 8 I sat BenJarvus Green-Ellis and he went off. In Week 9 I started him and he sucked. Guess what? It’s an easy choice in Week 10: he faces Pittsburgh. Sit him!

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em WR: Steve Johnson, Buffalo (v Detroit)

Look, I know that I can be stubborn sometimes, especially when it comes to proven veterans and rookies, but I’m not so stubborn that I’ll ignore six straight weeks of fantasy worthiness. And that’s exactly what Steve Johnson has done:

• Week 3: 3 catches, 66 yards, 1 TD
• Week 4: 3 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD
• Week 5: 5 catches, 46 yards, 2 TDs
• Week 6: bye
• Week 7: 8 catches, 158 yards, 1 TD
• Week 8: 5 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD
• Week 9: 11 catches, 145 yards, 0 TD

What is interesting to note is that I had Johnson as my sit ‘em WR for Week 9, based on the probability that he wouldn’t score a TD for a sixth straight week against a very good Bears pass D. Well, he didn’t score a TD, but he did set a career high in catches and had his second 140+ yard receiving game in his last three outings. That’s impressive.

Do I totally trust Johnson? No, I don’t. So I put him here somewhat begrudgingly. But his numbers speak for themselves, and Chan Gailey offenses love to throw the ball. Also, the Lions give up 235+ passing yards per game and have allowed 13 passing TDs this season. You can’t sit Johnson now.

Steve Johnson fantasy football Week 10 projection: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 10:

• Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas v Houston. Duh.
• Kansas City is better against the run than the pass. Brandon Lloyd has 100+ yards in 5 of his 8 starts this year. He plays.
• Dwayne Bowe just keeps scoring TDs. Facing a Denver that has given up 12 TDs in 8 games is a tasty matchup.
• Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards have to be considered decent start options this week. Both bounced back in Week 9, and the way to beat Cleveland is through the air.
• I know that Steve Smith (CAR) was shutout in Week 9, and that his team has huge QB issues. Well, I’d sit him at your own risk. Tampa Bay has given up a lot of passing TDs this year, and Smith is a prideful athlete with a lot of skins on the wall. I’m going against the stats and trends and saying that you want him in your lineup this week, even if John Fox takes snaps at QB.
• Speaking of Tampa Bay, Mike Williams has now become a weekly start. I can’t hold out any longer.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em WR: Brandon Marshall, Miami (v Tennessee)

Understand a few things here:

• I’m a Dolphins fan, so I hope I’m horribly wrong with this pick (and I am, at least in part, strategically placing Marshall in hopes of reverse-jinxing him into a huge day).
• I have Brandon Marshall as my #1 WR in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and I will be starting him because I don’t have a good enough alternative.

That said, I’m really starting to get worried. I have overrated Marshall for many weeks now because I’ve though he would break out. While his 10-catch, 127-yard performance against Green Bay in Week 6 was encouraging, Marshall has just 15 catches for 170 yards since. And the most important number? Zero touchdowns over that span. For the season, Marshall has just one TD.

It’s no coincidence that as I’ve overrated Marshall, I’ve also overrated Chad Henne. Well, after watching Henne not look very good for two straight weeks, and with some other stinker performances sprinkled in this season, I’m done counting on these two to get it going. If they are going to, I’ll wait for the proof on the field and then bump them back up my rankings.

Remember, just because Marshall is listed here doesn’t mean I’d sit him no matter what. He’s still good for a minimum of 5-6 catches per game, and still is one of the more talented wide receivers in the game. I place him here more to make the point (to myself as much as you, dear reader) that you need to start tempering your expectations for Marshall.

If you are blessed with a stable of good WRs, I give you my blessing to bench Marshall. Who would have thought playing Steve Johnson over Brandon Marshall, with both healthy, would be a good play? Well, that’s the move I would make this week.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 10 projection: 6 receptions 70 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 10:

• I’m not big on T.O. or Ochocinco this week against Indy. But T.O. scored twice again in Week 9, so you pretty much have to play him unless you’re ridiculously stacked. Ocho? I wouldn’t play him over Jordan Shipley at this point.
• Mike Williams (SEA) laid another egg in Week 9. Don’t even consider him if Hasselbeck is out. Even if Hasselbeck is in, understand the huge risk and minimal reward (few TDs) Williams brings.
• Miami didn’t give up much to the Baltimore WRs in Week 9. I’d be a little nervous about using any Tennessee WRs – including Randy Moss, if you have options – in Week 10.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em TE: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville (v Houston)

Yeah, I know…this is low hanging fruit. Lewis has 7 TD catches on the season and Houston’s pass D gave up two TDs to Randy McMichael – Randy McMichael – in Week 9. This is a no brainer. But after the week I had last week with the top-line picks, I need to feel a little better about myself. After Lewis proves to be one of the best tight ends in Week 10, I’ll feel a bit better.

Marcedes Lewis fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 10:

• I don’t need to tell you to start Jacob Tamme, do I?
• Aaron Hernandez caught his first two TD passes of the season in Week 9. Now that he’s popped his TD cherry, I think there could be more to come.
• The Panthers gave up two TDs to tight ends in Week 9. Perhaps Kellen Winslow can get his first TD against them this week. He continues to get a decent amount of targets and catches, so he’s not a terrible option.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em TE: Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)

Brent Celek did not register a catch against the Colts in Week 9. This isn’t a fluke, as the Colts shut down Owen Daniels the week before, and have typically been good against tight ends. While Greshman has plenty of talent, his numbers are actually dwindling as this season progresses. There is no reason to start him this week.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 10 projection: 4 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 10:

• Kevin Boss caught a TD in Week 9, but he only had 2 catches for 15 yards, and it was in a terribly easy game against Seattle. Don’t get excited.
• John Carlson put up another disappointing line in Week 9. You can’t trust him.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em Defense: Minnesota Vikings (at Chicago)

I know that the Vikings gave up 24 points to a Derek Anderson-led Cardinals team in Week 9. While that isn’t impressive, the fact that they sacked Anderson six times is impressive. With the easily sackable Jay Cutler on the schedule for Week 10, I expect another big sack game, as well as the potential for a few INTs.

Minnesota Vikings fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or fewer points, 6 sacks, 2 INTs

Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 10:

• Tampa Bay’s D doesn’t get many sacks or force a lot of turnovers, but they are playing Carolina. That makes them a decent play.
• Just as the Vikings are a good start against the Bears, the Bears D is a decent start against a QB in Brett Favre who will throw INTs.
• St. Louis’ defense has been very good at home this year. With a Troy Smith-led 49ers team coming to town in Week 10, they are a solid option.

Update: Thanks to the astute commenter who noted that St. Louis is not playing at home this weekend. They are AT San Francisco. The Rams have not been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home this year, so I’m not quite as high on them. They aren’t a terrible play, because they are facing SF after all, but not an automatic start.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em Defense: Baltimore Ravens (at Atlanta)

The Ravens did a nice job of bottling up the Dolphins in Week 9, but they have to go into the unfriendly confines of the Georgia Dome in Week 10. Matt Ryan and the Falcons play excellent football, especially offensively, when they are at home. I don’t expect the Ravens D – which isn’t what its reputation suggests – to have a great outing in Week 10.

Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Week 10 projection: 24 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 10:

• After New England got torched by the one-dimensional Browns in Week 9, I’m not too excited about them against a good Pittsburgh offense.
• Seattle’s defense is done as a playable unit. Done. They suck.

The comment section is yours. Have at it. We’ll be here answering all week.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football 3-2-1: Analyzing the Defenses and When to Start/Sit Your Stars

In this week’s edition of Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I provide some useful information regarding the early 2010 performance of some defensive units that will help you in two ways: first, deciding whether to start them or not in your D/ST slot; and second, knowing what to expect from your players when they are facing these defenses.

Here is how this week’s edition of 3-2-1 breaks down:

THREE defenses whose performance so far in 2010 has been surprising based on their track record and I think it will continue;

TWO defenses who are performing exactly how we’d expect them to, plus what you should do with this information; and,

ONE key piece of advice regarding how you should view your star players when it comes to start/sit decisions.

And now here’s me, with my slightly more kempt look after finally getting a haircut.

After you watch the video, don’t forget about our other Week 3 fantasy insights:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em
• Week 3 Player Rankings
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Roster Advice and Q&A

As I anticipated it would be, Week 2 was much better for me than Week 1. It’s always nice to be able to see everyone play a real game before trying to prognosticate how they will do.

Week 2 wasn’t perfect, but still a rather solid performance.

The hits and misses:

• Start ‘em hits: LeSean McCoy, Chris Cooley, Oakland D, Austin Collie
• Start ‘em misses: Eli Manning
• Sit ‘em hits: Brett Favre, Felix Jones, Owen Daniels, Buffalo Bills D, Michael Crabtree
• Sit ‘em misses:

But no resting on our laurels. Week 2 is over. Let’s turn the page to Week 3 and see who should start and who should sit.

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

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Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em QB: Tony Romo, Dallas (@ Houston)

I know you’re wary of starting Tony Romo after Weeks 1 and 2. He’s racked up a lot of yardage (600+ yards) but has only 2 TDs to show for it, plus 2 INTs. Unfortunately for Romo owners, such inefficient stats are looking like what we should expect in 2010. The Cowboys can rack up yards, but this team simply has not shown an ability to find the end zone consistently, nor have they established a running game to take the pressure off Romo and help move the chains.

But in Week 3, Romo has a matchup you absolutely must exploit. Here are the numbers for the QBs the Houston Texans have played during the first two weeks of 2010:

• Peyton Manning: 40-57, 433 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
• Donovan McNabb: 28-38, 426 yards, 1 TD

What else do I need to say? Start Romo. Then worry about him in Week 5 (Dallas has a bye in Week 4) when he faces Tennessee.

Tony Romo fantasy football week 3 projection: 350 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• It’s probably time to start buying Kyle Orton as a guy you can start weekly and feel good about. With 4 TDs through two games and Indy up next, Orton’s worth a look.
• Brett Favre has been my sit ‘em QB two weeks in a row. And two weeks in a row I’ve been right. Detroit is the opponent in Week 2, and both Jay Cutler and Michael Vick have put up good numbers against them. I think Favre gets rolling – a little bit – this week.
• Whoever plays QB for the Eagles, whether it’s Michael Vick or Kevin Kolb, start ‘em. Jacksonville’s defense is not very good.
• Yeah, a fourth one. It’s a good week for QBs! Carolina is giving up lots of points to opposing QBs. Start Carson Palmer as he, Ocho, and TO pad their otherwise woeful stats.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)

What!? But Flacco owners have been licking their chops for the Cleveland game! Yeah, well so were the Tampa Bay and Kansas City offenses too. This was the result for the QBs:

• Josh Freeman: 182 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Matt Cassel: 176 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs

So while the competition hasn’t been great, the Browns are giving up an average of less than 200 yards and only 1 TD per week. While Baltimore certainly has more weapons on offense than Tampa Bay or Kansas City, they’ve looked putrid so far this season against two pretty solid defenses.

Cleveland is no Jets or Bengals D, but they are decent. With all of the startable QBs who have favorable matchups this week, I’d love to sit Flacco until he figures out how to use his new weapons. And, for the record, Flacco threw only one TD in two games against Cleveland last year.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 3 projection: 225 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• So Vince Young is still a threat to get pulled for Kerry Collins? I know it was Pittsburgh, and they are really good on D, but I’m sitting Vince against a stout Giants front four.
• That’s two straight stinkers from Matt Cassel. Sit him until further notice. (Hopefully you weren’t planning to start him anyway.)
• Anyone getting excited about Josh Freeman’s four TDs in two games? Good, hope you enjoyed it. He won’t do that against Pittsburgh in Week 3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Indianapolis)

Update 9/24: Well that didn’t go so well, huh? Knowshon Moreno has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game, despite not appearing on the injury report all week.

Can we all agree that as an NFL running back, Knowshon Moreno will probably not be the explosive, dynamic runner he was in college at Georgia? Okay, good.

Now, can we all also agree that he is Denver’s main man in the backfield and – assuming he stays healthy – will be a steady-eddie type guy who will get touches and a solid #2 RB/flex play? Okay good.

In Week 2, Moreno had 28 touches and racked up 118 yards, plus a TD. There is nothing explosive about that, but it helps you move the chains, so to speak, in your fantasy matchups. Against Indy? Even better. The run D was better for the Colts Sunday night, but they still gave up 5.2 yards per carry to Ahmad Bradshaw.

Start Moreno with confidence this week.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 3 projection: 95 yards rushing, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• You know what? I’m not sure I care right now if Beanie Wells plays in Week 3 or not. Tim Hightower has had two productive weeks and the Cardinals will have to ride their running game with Derek Anderson at QB. Oakland is a good matchup too.
• Matt Forte has been more productive as a receiver than a runner for two weeks. Who cares? It all counts the same. Green Bay will pressure Jay Cutler like Dallas did, but Chicago showed they can deal with it. Start Forte.
• You might wonder whether you should start Jahvid Best at RB against a solid Minnesota run D that bottled up Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Yeah, well I was hesitant to start him against Chicago and Philly too. 5 TDs later, start this guy. He’s electric.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em RB: All Dallas RBs (@ Houston)

Felix Jones was my sit ‘em RB in Week 2. That worked out well. This week, allow me to expand my sit recommendation for the single most overrated position on one team in the NFL.

Everyone talks about the supposed three-headed running back monster in Dallas. Too bad none of them are worthy of starting. And against Houston? Well neither Joseph Addai or Clinton Portis did much against Houston (and don’t talk to me about Portis’ two short-yardage TDs; you can’t predict that and he had 33 yards on 13 carries).

This is going to be a shootout with Matt Schaub and Tony Romo trading touchdown passes. Maybe one of the Dallas RBs goes off, but I’d much prefer to have Marion Barber and Felix Jones sitting on my bench until someone emerges as the guy who will get 15-20 touches per week and do something with them.

Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice fantasy football week 3 projection: 50 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Carnell Williams. Every week, just check to see who Pittsburgh is facing. Then sit that running back. Now move along.
• CJ Spiller got one carry and four receptions against Green Bay. He’s clearly losing the rookie RB race to Jahvid Best…by a mile. Sit Spiller until he proves he’s worth starting.
• I’m sick and damn tired of the Jerome Harrison saga in Cleveland. One week he makes me look good, one week he makes me look like an idiot. The Browns finally gave him some carries (16) against KC and Harrison runs for 33 yards. Sure, the Chiefs were keying on him to prevent what happened last year, but I’m not rolling the dice against Baltimore.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em WR: Dez Bryant, Dallas (at Houston)

Can you tell I like the Dallas passing game this week?

I’m obviously not going to tell you to start Miles Austin, because that’s too easy. But if Tony Romo throws for 400+ yards (as both QBs have done against Houston this season) then someone else is going to have a big day. And I’m definitely not telling you to start Roy Williams.

Bryant only had 2 catches in Week 2, but he was targeted often in Week 1 when he had 8 catches for 56 yards. In Week 2, Bryant’s value this past Sunday came from his punt return TD. The Cowboys only let him return kicks when he’ll have a chance for a run back, and based on what we saw in Week 2 he’s got the goods to do it any time.

I like this to be Bryant’s breakout game as receiver. Plus, the Cowboys are desperate and Bryant is perhaps their most talented offensive player. They need to start getting him involved, especially in the red zone, to change their fortunes. I think he could have a really big week.

Dez Bryant fantasy football week 3 projection: 8 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs in Week 3:

• Dallas might be without cornerback Mike Jenkins, and their safeties are terrible. You know Andre Johnson is a must-start, but give Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter a look too.
• Mark Clayton only had two catches in Week 2, but he made them count; both were touchdowns. Playing a Washington D that gave up a ton through the air in Week 2 (granted, it was to Houston’s aerial attack and not a rookie QB) I think Clayton needs to be in your lineup.
• I am a Brandon Marshall owner. If you are, you may be concerned about the same things I am for this week: he hasn’t gotten into the end zone; Chad Henne does not look good despite the ‘Fins 2-0 record; and, the Jets are on the schedule in Week 3. I don’t care. Start Marshall. Darrelle Revis is a bit banged up, the Patriots proved you can get scores through the air against the Jets, and Marshall is a primetime player. He’ll shine on Sunday night…assuming Henne can get it to him.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em WR: Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh (@ Tampa Bay)

Wallace actually had more receptions in Week 2 (2) than Hines Ward did (1). Still, I’m a card carrying member of the I Love Hines Ward As a Consistent Fantasy Starter Club, so I’m not going to tell you to sit him unless you have some really good alternatives.

However, with the QB flux in Pittsburgh, neither Ward nor Wallace is an especially strong start this week. And seeing as how Wallace’s value comes from big plays, he is the one more likely to feel the effect of whatever non-Big Ben QB trots out there for Pittsburgh next week.

Plus, neither Cleveland nor Carolina (granted, two terrible passing games) had much success through the air against the Bucs. So there’s that too.

Mike Wallace fantasy football Week 3 projection: 2 receptions 29 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Lee Evans didn’t have a catch this week when I recommended him as a start to a few people. Thanks Lee. Sit this guy as long as Trent Edwards is the QB.
• Legedu Naanee followed up his sterling Week 1 performance with a 1 rec, 14 yard stinker in Week3. I’m not a big fan of him at all as a weekly starter.
• You know how Devin Aromashodu was supposed to break out this week? Umm…he didn’t even register a single catch. While the Bears’ passing attack will probably be a merry-go-round all year, I wouldn’t feel confident starting him right now.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em TE: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (at Miami)

Do you get it yet? Mark Sanchez loves his tight end.

Keller had 7 receptions for 115 yards and a TD against New England in Week 2. The Jets’ Week 3 opponent Miami gave up 6 receptions and 86 yards to Visanthe Shiancoe in Week 2. Do the math. Start Keller.

And consider Keller a weekly start until Mark Sanchez stops looking to him on almost every dropback.

Dustin Keller fantasy football week 3 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• See that stat above regarding Shiancoe? Well the Vikes are playing Detroit this week. I foresee a TD.
• Jermichael Finley was over 100 yards in Week 2 despite not scoring. He’ll score this year. Plenty. Don’t worry and start him.
• Mercedes Lewis had a second straight good game. The Jaguars are at home (which means David Garrard will play well). Philly gave up 7 catches and 108 yards to Brandon Pettigrew in Week 2. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but everything points to a solid day for Lewis.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (vs Pittsburgh)

The Solider had four catches for 83 yards in Week 2, but he faces the fearsome Pittsburgh D in Week 3. I don’t see a whole lot of scoring chances materializing for the Bucs and young QB Josh Freeman. Thus, I think Winslow’s value is limited.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football week 3 projection: 3 catches, 31 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• I’d be careful with Jason Witten. He doesn’t score many TDs anyway and banged his head pretty good in Week 2. Make sure you have a good alternative if you’re going to sit him, but I wouldn’t mind doing so this week.
• Brandon Pettigrew had a nice day in Week 2, but may not find so many opportunities against a Minnesota defense that doesn’t give up much to opposing TEs.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em D/ST: New England Patriots (vs Buffalo)

The Bills are going to be a fantasy-friendly opposing offense all season long. With the Patriots smarting from their loss to the Jets, and the way they played in the first half against Cincy still in my mind, I like the Patriots in Week 3.

New England Patriots fantasy football Week 3 projection: 13 points or less, 2 TOs, 3 sacks

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 3:

• Miami’s defense is pretty damn good. It’s always nerve-wracking recommending the Dolphins in any way against yearly foil the Jets, but I think the D could be solid Sunday night.
• Washington gets to face a St. Louis offense that will improve in years to come…but that isn’t very good right now. Start the ‘Skins against the rookie QB.
• Cincinnati at Carolina looks like a pretty sweet matchup for the Bengals’ D.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles (at Jacksonville)

Don’t get overconfident about this matchup after the Jaguars Week 2 stinker. It was on the road, where the Jags typically play poorly. They’ll be out to avenge such a bad performance, and the Eagles have given up a ton of yards and points to the Packers and Lions during the first two weeks of the season.

I wouldn’t drop the Eagles yet, but they have not been nearly as good as we expected so far in 2010.

Philadelphia Eagles fantasy football Week 2 projection: 21+ points given up, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units in Week 3:

• Chicago faces the Green Bay juggernaut. I’d prefer to not be starting the Bears.
• I obviously don’t want the Texans D starting, and I don’t want Dallas’ D starting either next week. That game should be a shootout.

As always, your questions are welcomed in the comment section and I will answer as many as I can as quickly as I can. Live chats Friday and Sunday morning, plus all of our other usual posts as scheduled this week.

Best of luck in Week 3 everyone!

Monday Morning Observations: Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Steve Breaston, and more

As I’ll try to do every Monday morning, here is a smorgasbord of quick hit observations after a full slate of Sunday games.

If I’m a Tony Romo owner, and I am in one keeper league, I am both encouraged and concerned by what I saw last night.

I’m encouraged because Miles Austin looks as good as ever, Dez Bryant is talented and involved in the gameplan, and Roy Williams actually made a tough catch before getting drilled. I’m concerned, however, because the Cowboys’ offensive line is awful and they are inept once they get in the red zone. And if I had to weigh the two feelings, I’m probably a little more concerned than encouraged.

Arian Foster owners should temper their expectations a little bit because they just experience the best fantasy day he’ll ever have, but we now have one more piece of evidence pointing to Foster being the real deal and a weekly start at RB.

I would not overreact to Frank Gore‘s rough day against Seattle. He’s the focal point of the offense, and the six receptions are encouraging. I would, however, react to Michael Crabtree‘s terrible showing (2 receptions, 12 yards). I can already tell you he’ll be my “sit ‘em” WR for this week as the rust from playing no preseason games was evident.

David Garrard will always try to lull you in with the random 3 TD performance, which he did twice last year. Don’t get overly excited. Unfortunately, he only threw 9 TDs in the other 14 games; and the Jaguars were playing Denver, remember.

We all thought the Seahawks backfield rotation was a bit more clear after Julius Jones was cut and Justin Forsett was named the starter. Well…not so much. The Seahawks re-signed Jones and then split the carries 7-8-6 between Forsett, Jones, and Leon Washington, respectively. This could be a weekly merry-go-round.

If the Browns continue to display their abject hate for Jerome Harrison next week, against the team he torched for 286 yards in 2009, then it’s time to start getting very worried. Until then, resist the urge.

How can you not be encouraged by Matt Forte‘s first day in Mike Martz’s system? Not only did Forte get 17 carries (which he could only turn into 50 yards thanks to his porous O-Line) but he also caught 7 passes for 151 yards and 2 TDs. And while Forte has historically owned the Lions, I don’t think Week 1 was a fluke.

Until further notice, I wouldn’t start anyone on the Washington offense expect Chris Cooley. Dallas has a really good defense, but the Redskins also need some time to gel.

If you own any offensive players on Carolina, I think it’s a good time to get your finger near the panic button. Don’t push it yet; it’s only Week 1, but seeing Matt Moore lay an egg against the Giants, then get hurt, means that there could be more days of 237 total yards and only one TD in Carolina’s future. On the other hand, the Panthers’ QB struggles could also mean they simply chuck the passing game and start pounding DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Those two combined for 21 carries in Week 1. My prediction is that number is their lowest combined carry total of the year.

Michael Vick is back to tempt us all, including his coach in real life. If you own Kevin Kolb, it goes without saying that Vick is a must-own handcuff. In deep or 2 QB leagues, Vick is also a very intriguing add this week. Certainly he has value next week if he starts, and you may just want to speculate here on the off chance that he eventually takes over this Eagles’ offense.

The discouraging news for Brandon Marshall owners in Week 1 is that he didn’t get into the endzone and accumulated only 53 yards. The good news is that Buffalo is very good against the pass yet Marshall was still able to hook up with Chad Henne eight times. Marshal will have many bigger days and will be PPR gold this season, like he always is.

See what I mean about C.J. Spiller being hit or miss? Incredibly Spiller accounted for only 14 total yards and still came close to fellow rookie Jahvid Best’s total for Detroit. The difference is that Best was able to score on two short TD runs, which is why I’ve liked Best’s value more as a weekly start. He won’t be as explosive, and you cannot count on two TDs or even one every week, but Best will get more such opportunities because the Lions’ offense is better (especially once Matthew Stafford returns).

One question you don’t need to ask anymore: should I start Hakeem Nicks? The answer is yes. He will have a Plaxico-like season this year.

I was wrong about Steve Breaston and Derek Anderson not being able to hook up consistently. While Larry Fitzgerald caught the touchdown, Breaston became Anderson’s security blanket, catching 7 passes for 132 yards. I should have remembered how often Anderson looked to Joe Jurevicius during his Pro Bowl 2007 season. Looks like Breaston could fill that role in a more explosive way here in 2010.

Wes Welker is back. I don’t regret telling you to take a wait-and-see approach with his knee in Week 1, but know that we’ve waited and seen…get him in your lineup and leave him there. And yes, do the same with Randy Moss, despite his post-game comments. And no, I would not be shocked to see Tom Brady end up as the #1 fantasy QB this year.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson will have many better days in 2010. Worry not.

I’m not buying Matt Hasselbeck, Mike Williams, or anyone else on the Seattle offense. Not yet. Strange things happen in Week 1, and I want to see how this team looks once the Pete Carroll Honeymoon of Exuberance is over and they realize how depleted their roster is. San Francisco is going to look back at Week 1 later in the season and just shake their heads.

I’m also not buying the other Mike Williams in Tampa Bay. He had 5 catches for 30 yards and a touchdown, but he’s a rookie. Rookie WRs are inconsistent. If you can find someone who will trade you a consistent #3 WR like Jabar Gaffney for him, do it. Now.

Of course there are many, many more observations, but I’ll have to save some for my Start em, Sit em column, which should be ready to go tomorrow.

What I’m looking for tonight

We have two Monday night games tonight, and here are the key storylines I’m interested in:

• If the Ravens get the ball inside the 5 yard line, who is taking the snaps at running back?
• How do the Jets split up the carries between Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson?
• Who is the #1 receiving option for Mark Sanchez? Is it Dustin Keller?
• Can the Ravens contain a rather porous Jets passing attack?
• How do the Chiefs split up the carries between Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones?
• How comfortable is Philip Rivers going to Malcolm Floyd as his go-to guy?
• Is Ryan Mathews as good as everyone says he is? If so, he should romp all over Kansas City.

How about you? What were your observations from yesterday’s game? What are you watching for tonight?

Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down: Justin Forsett, Tony Romo, and more

Stock up/stock down…it’s a fantasy sports article idea almost as old as the Prodigy internet service (which, by the way, served as my introduction to fantasy baseball a looooong time ago). What it may lack in originality though, it more than makes up for usefulness and accessibility.

That’s why I’m going to make it a staple of our weekly fantasy football coverage here at MSF Fantasy Sports.

This morning, in the first edition of Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down, I’ll run through a list of players whose stock is either rising or falling in my eyes due to a change in workload, injury concerns, matchups, or just a shift in my general trust level with them.

Remember: your fantasy football team is a lot like a relationship. (Huh?) If you don’t trust your significant other, it will lead to instability and turmoil in your relationship. If you don’t trust your starters and your bench players, instability and turmoil will similarly plague your fantasy football team.

And yes, I just went there for a comparison.

Who cares. Let’s talk names.

Stock WAY Up; Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle

In Saturday’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I told you that the Seattle backfield was one to keep an eye on. If you paid heed to my advice, you now know that Forsett has since been named the starter.

Why is this important? There were four games last year in which Forsett got 10 or more carries. Look at his output in those four games:

• 17 carries, 123 yards, TD
• 22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD
• 14 carries, 70 yards
• 10 carries, 74 yards

Let’s call him the NFC version of Jerome Harrison.

Some guys just produce every time they get an opportunity. Forsett, like Harrison, has proven to be one of those guys. In PPR leagues, he is a bona fide #2 back right now (he had 41 catches for 350 yards last year). In standard leagues he is a great flex option and a definite #3 RB who has the potential to become a #2, a la Harrison last year.

If Forsett is somehow available in your league, stop reading this post RIGHT NOW and go pick him up. He has a tough matchup in Week 1 against San Francisco, but he’ll still do enough to bring value. Get him in your lineup.

Stock Down: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

I live in Dallas, so you have to take this one with the caveat that my judgment could be clouded by listening to all of the nattering nabobs of negativity who break down the Cowboys on the radio. Still, I think there are concerns that Romo can live up to the preseason hype that has him lumped in with other 2nd tier QBs like Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady.

Among my reasons for concern:

• I don’t fully trust that Miles Austin is a #1 receiver
• I certainly don’t trust Romo’s 2nd and 3rd options yet, which are rookie Dez Bryant and veteran suckfest Roy Williams.
• I don’t trust that the Cowboys running game will be a consistent force until Tashard Choice is featured more, and who knows when that will be.
• The Cowboys have serious offensive line issues.

Now look, I’m not saying drop Romo. I’m not even saying don’t start him if your backup is, say, Matthew Stafford. This is a guy who has three straight years of a QB rating of 91.4 or better, and whose TD production is 36-26-26 over that span. Romo will have a good season.

But…I kept him in one league thinking there was a chance Romo could have a great season, and that he might even be able to challenge for upper tier status this year. He still could, but I also think that enough warning signs accumulated during training camp that suggest Romo could struggle, especially early.

Stock Up: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore

Want a name of a QB who was drafted below Romo in most drafts but could exceed him in value? Try Joe Flacco, who had the productive TJ Houshmandzadeh added to a stable of receivers that already included Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason.

What this trio lacks in youth they more than make up for in veteran savvy, hands, and reliability. They aren’t going to beat you deep, but they will provide option after option for Flacco in the red zone. That’s a very good thing.

Stock Down: Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona

Having watched Derek Anderson play for three years in Cleveland, I know what he is and what he is not. Anderson has a rocket arm and is a guy who will take chances downfield, especially to his #1 target. This means Larry Fitzgerald owners can exhale a bit. Anderson is not, however, a patient nor accurate quarterback, which means that Steve Breaston and Early Doucet could suffer.

Stock Down: Randy Moss, WR, New England; Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami; Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo

This one is simple: Darrelle Revis is back. We know what he did to #1 receivers last year and it wasn’t pretty.

These three guys have to face Revis twice in 2010. While they all should be solid plays in their other 14 matchups (except for Evans, whose production will be up and down with his QB) the presence of Revis means you at least have to think about sitting them during their two Jets weeks.

With Moss and Marshall, two of the best receivers in the game, you probably don’t ever sit them, but their stock does take a bit of a hit because we can now expect lesser numbers in two of their games this year.

Stock Up: Patrick Crayton, WR, San Diego

He was lost in the shuffle in Dallas so nothing was better for him than being shipped out of town. The bonus is that he went to a WR-starved team with a very good QB who will be able to take advantage of Crayton’s skills, which are his precise route-running and reliable hands.

As our buddy Kurt from PFI pointed out, Crayton is just a few years removed from a 1,000-yard season when he was the #2 receiver in Dallas. He’ll be the #2 in San Diego and could post similar numbers this year.