NFL Week 7 – ATLANTA FALCONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Sunday, October 25, 4:15 p.m. ET
Favorite: Cowboys -4

Cowboys offense vs Falcons defense

As defendants, the Falcons have been pushed around like scared criminals on their first day in prison when it comes to the running game. Atlanta allows close to 120 yards per game and the Cowboys, whose offensive bread and butter has arguably been the running game in 2009, should have a big day. The Cowboys will throw a bit of everything at the Atlanta D-line: Marion Barber for power, returning Felix Jones for explosiveness and versatile Tashard Choice for a bit of everything.

No quarterback has totally torched the Atlanta pass defense but everyone has at least moved the ball decently, so Tony Romo’s NFL odds of succeeding are solid. Atlanta’s pass rush is puppy-dog-weak, so Romo should have plenty of time to hit Miles Austin downfield, as he did against the Chiefs two weeks ago.

Cowboys defense vs Falcons offense

There’s definitely reason to panic here. The Cowboys rank in the NFL’s bottom half in total defense, run defense and especially pass defense. That’s after facing Tampa Bay, Carolina and Kansas City plus the Giants and Denver. Arguably, the Giants are the only prolific offense Dallas has played; the Broncos rock but have dominated primarily through defense. If the Cowboys struggle to stop weaker offenses, it’s scary to imagine what the high-octane Falcons can do.

The Cowboys have lost their pass rushing ability after leading the league in that regard last season. If any Joe Blow Fafone can throw on the Cowboys, Matt Ryan could put on a show with favorite targets Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White. If the Cowboys’ pass defense buckles down – and it has in recent weeks – Ryan can still hand off to bruising Michael Turner. Dallas needs its best defensive performance of the season to stay competitive.

Outlook

In this disappointing season, the Cowboys need to earn back our trust. Unfortunately, the Falcons look like a better football team right now – just like the Yankees’ World Series odds over the Angels. I think they’ll edge Dallas in a hard-fought affair this Sunday with Matt Ryan making the difference.

Spread provided by BetOnline.com

Week 6 DALLAS COWBOYS – BYE WEEK

Cowboys Passing Offense: C+

It may seem strange to grade the Cowboys’ passing game so poorly considering that Tony Romo’s yardage is right in line with his career norms and that Dallas has the NFL’s No. 8 passing attack. The reality, however, is that the stats are padded by some easy matchups and two particularly big games.

The Cowboys lit up Tampa in Week 1 and the Romo/Miles Austin connection put on a show in an overtime game against Kansas City, but Romo was mediocre-to-bad in between, throwing one touchdown compared to four picks against the Giants, Panthers and Broncos. Terrell Owens is gone and Roy Williams is not only hurt but had lost a step anyway. The Cowboys have to hope Austin is for real and must get Jason Witten more involved to pass the ball effectively. Week 9 will be a true test when America’s team travels to Philadelphia. The Cowboys will be underdog NFL picks.

Cowboys Rushing Offense: A

Dallas ranks third in the NFL on the ground, averaging 161 yards per game. Most impressive is that they move the chains no matter who gets the ball. Marion Barber hurts his quad – Felix Jones comes in to hit home runs. Jones hurts his knee – Tashard Choice carves up defenses. If the Cowboys are smart enough to ride the underrated Choice until Barber and Jones are fully healed, their grade will jump to an A+ by season’s end.

Cowboys Pass Defense: C+

The numbers look bad but they’re skewed by Dallas’ early-season struggles against Tampa and the Giants. In the last three weeks, they’ve held Carolina, Denver and Kansas City under 230 yards. A full season of Terence Newman in the secondary is helping. For the Cowboys’ pass defense to improve, however, they have to pressure the quarterback more. Dallas led the NFL with 59 sacks last season – 3.68 per game. The Cowboys have just 10 through five games – two per game, and that includes some easier matchups against Tampa, Kansas City and Carolina.

Cowboys Run Defense: B-

The Cowboys got gouged by Tampa’s runners in Week 1 but have survived reasonably well since – against some good running teams too. They don’t have a shutdown front seven like the Vikings have but their run-stoppers aren’t a detriment to Dallas’ sportsbook odds either. Keith Brooking and company are a solid if unspectacular group.

Perhaps a 3-2 team deserves a higher grade, but the Cowboys have fallen short of expectations thus far. Their schedule was easy enough to make them 4-1 – and that doesn’t include their winnable home loss to the Giants. If the Cowboys want to make the playoffs and save Wade Phillips’ job, they have to beat some good teams. I’m betting management will make some major changes in the offseason if that doesn’t happen.

Week 3 – CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Monday, September 28, 8:35 p.m. ET
Favorite: Cowboys -8.5

Cowboys offense vs Panthers defense

Whoever starts at halfback for the Cowboys will lick his chops right through to Monday’s kickoff. The Panthers’ run defense is porous, allowing 168 yards per game so far this season. Backs of all shapes and sizes – from Brian Westbrook to Michael Turner – have gashed Carolina. Even if Marion Barber can’t play, Tashard Choice excelled against elite run defenses late last season, so he’s more than ready to dominate. Same goes for Felix Jones, who has a good chance of hitting a home run Monday night.

Romo should also have a much easier time Monday, as the Panthers’ pass rush has been kitten-like, recording just two sacks in two games. Julius Peppers has drawn major criticism for his poor play. Romo should have time to spread the ball out to Jason Witten, Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton.

Cowboys defense vs Panthers offense

Simply put, Dallas’ defense has been a total bust entering NFL week 3 betting. After facing the Bucs and Giants, the Cowboys rank 30th in total defense. On the bright side, they should have an easier time against the mistake-prone Jake Delhomme and will be hungry for redemption after last week’s heartbreak. On the other hand, they’ll almost certainly have trouble against DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

The Cowboys have to hope they can jump out to an early lead and force the ball into Delhomme’s hands rather than see Williams and Stewart running the ball down their throat.

Outlook

The Cowboy defense remains a work in progress and may still allow a decent amount of points this week. After all, Tampa of all teams racked up yards against Dallas in week 1. However, the Panther defense is sagging badly. It seems to be weak everywhere right now, so the Cowboys should light up the score board. Betting software projects for America’s Team to cover the 8.5-spread and win a barn burner on Monday night.