2010 Fantasy Football Hardware and a Final Recap of BFL2010

December 29, 2010 by Jerod-Morris · Comments Off

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When the final seconds ticked off the clock in Philadelphia last night, the majority of fantasy football leagues ended. (And if your league didn’t end, and you take Week 17 seriously, remind me never to join your league…because that’s ludicrious.) Across the nation champions were crowned, runners-up were left to wallow in their disappointment, and those who didn’t even make the playoffs were left to wonder what might have been.

As you know, I have had the great pleasure and privilege of participating in the 2010 edition of P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. Even though my team fell well short of expectations (thanks Brandon Marshall and Sidney Rice!), it was a wonderful experience that I hope to be fortunate enough to one day have again. To the fine and friendly folks at P&G and the NFL who made this great experience possible, thank you. This was the most enjoyable fantasy football experience I’ve ever had.

The league began with a memorable trip to New York to conduct our draft in the NFL boardroom, and it culminated last night with a victory for @dinabanina and Fresh 2 Death, the team managed by National Football Post. Finishing second was our good buddy Phil from Team Gunaxin, who was hoping Michael Vick had one more 40+ point game in him heading into Tuesday night. Alas, Vick could only muster 20.82 points, which was not nearly enough to compensate for uncharacteristically off weeks from MegaTron, Marques Colston, and Deion Branch.

The other area that decided the 91.44-72.42 outcome was on defense. Team Gunaxin put faith in the awful Dallas Cowboys defense, which inexplicably has two Pro Bowl starters despite already setting a team record for points allowed in a season through 15 games, while Fresh 2 Death trusted the young but improving New England Patriots. The Cowboys were actually a somewhat defensible pick because they were facing Arizona and John Skelton, but they mustered just two fantasy points. The Patriots, on the other hand, racked up 23 points by holding Buffalo to three points and forcing 7 turnovers. That 21-point swing on defense was the difference.

My congratulations to Fresh 2 Death and Team Gunaxin for great seasons. Both were deserving of their spots in the playoffs and owe no one any apologies for making it to the title round. Team Gunaxin had the highest point total overall while Fresh 2 Death finished third in overall points and had the best record. On the other hand, DVOA vs GERD (managed by the great Aaron Schatz from the peerless Football Outsiders) and its second-best point total was robbed by going just 7-7 and not making the playoffs while DayQuil Fighter Of The NyQuil (managed by @Punte of With Leather) made the playoffs with the league’s second-lowest overall point total. That’s messed up…but that’s fantasy.

In every league I’ve ever been in, there always seems to be one team that gets the breaks – such as DayQuil having the lowest points against in the league – and one team that gets screwed with injuries, bad matchups, and/or bad timing. Such is the frustrating reality of this silly game we all spend so much time on, care so much about, and have so little control over.

With the 2010 fantasy football season now effectively over, save for a few stragglers who can ask their Week 17 start em, sit em questions here, let’s hand out some hardware and recognize the best of the best from the 2010 fantasy football season.

2010 Fantasy Football MVP: Michael Vick, QB, Eagles

Obviously Michael Vick’s uneven “real” performance last night against Minnesota probably gave the real NFL MVP award to Tom Brady, but Vick is the clear MVP in fantasy football. Phil and Team Gunaxin deserve a lot of credit for pouncing on Vick early and riding him all the way to the championship round.

Now, before you say that Vick choked in the championship, remember that he still scored around 20 points (depending on scoring system) for his owners last night, and this came on the heels of his explosion in Week 15. So he came through during the biggest weeks of the season. Additionally, a player’s worth in fantasy football is all about value. If Vick had been a first round pick this year, he would not be so clearly more valuable than other QBs like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. However, because Vick was a waiver wire pickup in almost every league, his value when judged against his cost of acquisition might be the highest in fantasy football history.

The runner-up to Vick in the fantasy football MVP race is Arian Foster, another player who was a waiver wire pickup or mid- to later-round draft pick in many leagues. During the preseason, as the season drew closer and leagues drafted, Foster’s draft position increased due to injuries in the Texans’ backfield. Still, it was a highly speculative pick as Foster had never been a full-time back before. He responded by scoring the second-most fantasy points after Vick, and actually was more valuable in comparison to others at his position than Vick was. Aaron Schatz deserves huge props for nabbing Foster in the 6th round of the BFL2010 draft when his value was still so unproven. That’s the kind of foresight you get when you read Football Outsiders.

Here are the two things that separate Vick from Foster in my eyes:

Week 15 is the semifinal round of the playoffs in most leagues. Foster produced a dud against Tennessee with just 61 total yards and no touchdowns. Vick, on the other hand, accounted for 372 total yards and four touchdowns in the Eagles’ thrilling comeback over New York. I bet most Vick owners who were in the playoffs won their Week 15 matchups because of VIck.
Vick also came through in primetime throughout the season. I don’t know about you, but when all else is equal I try to play guys who are in the Sunday night or Monday night games. That way, no matter how Sunday afternoon shakes out I still have a chance. For me, it adds a little more enjoyment to the fantasy football experience. Vick had some of his best performances in primetime this year, including his mind-blowing performance against Washington that brought many owners back from seemingly insurmountable leads. Those kinds of memorable moments make you the MVP.

2010 All Fantasy Team

QB – Michael Vick, Eagles (Team Gunaxin)
RB – Arian Foster, Texans (DVOA vs GERD)
RB – Adrian Peterson, Vikings (Midwest Sports Fans)
WR – Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (Fuzzy Gullets)
WR – Roddy White, Falcons (Press Coverage)
Flex – Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (Fresh 2 Death)
TE – Jason Witten, Cowboys (Team Gunaxin)
K – David Akers, Eagles (Fuzzy Gullets)
Defense – Pittsburgh Steelers (Press Coverage)

Vick and Foster are obvious choices.

I struggled putting Peterson at one of the RB spots because of the late season injury that made him worthless in weeks 14 and 15, but his rebound last night, plus his consistent excellence during the first 13 weeks of the season were too much to ignore, especially when the alternatives were inconsistent guys like Darren McFadden and LeSean McCoy.

At WR, Dwayne Bowe was an easy choice. Despite his late season struggles, he had a great Week 16 for owners who rode him during the regular season. Plus, his overall numbers are outstanding. Roddy White beats out guys like Brandon Lloyd and Calvin Johnson because of his consistency and because he was better that the other guys in Weeks 15 and 16.

At flex, Jamaal Charles was the choice because he produced well for most of the year and then exploded in Weeks 15 and 16, finally getting into the end zone with regularity. Fresh 2 Death won the championship because of Charles.

Witten is the easy choice at TE as the most consistently good option in a position that was defined by inconsistency and injury this year.

David Akers wins out over Sebastian Janikowski at kicker for the same reason: week to week consistency.

On defense, the Steelers are the choice because they registered double-digit days in four of the final six weeks of the season and ended up #1 in overall fantasy points by defenses.

You’ll notice one key theme through all my picks: consistency. There is nothing more valuable in fantasy football than consistency. Lineup decisions are hard, and players who you know you can count on week in and week out are hard to find. The guys on the All Fantasy Team above combined consistency with excellence more than any others.

If you disagree with my choices, please post yours below. I imagine we will be able to have some lively debates on this topic.

2010 Fantasy Football LVP: Randy Moss, Patriots/Vikings/Titans

Here is the most amazing single fact about BFL2010: Fresh 2 Death, the team that ultimately won the championship, picked Randy Moss in the first round (pick 10). Let that sink in. How often can you blow your first round pick in such a spectacular way and still compete for and win a championship?

I’m not sure I really need to expound on why Moss is the least valuable player in fantasy football this year. He wasn’t injured, yet he caught just 27 passes for 375 yard and five TDs. From Week 14-16 he did not catch one pass. Most owners had to spend a 1st or a 2nd round pick to get him, and received little in return. And most, I bet, were not able to overcome it like Fresh 2 Death was.

The runner-up has to be Ryan Mathews, who went in the 2nd round in most leagues. I preached all preseason that Mathews was being terribly overvalued because he was still an unproven rookie, and my fears about him proved true. Other names that could be included here: Shonn Greene; DeAngelo Williams; Beanie Wells.

2010 All Underrated Team

These guys where consistently good performers on a weekly basis who, even up until Week 16, I was getting asked start/sit questions about. Make sure that as you look forward to 2010 you keep these players in mind. All proved their worth with consistently good seasons this year.

QB – Josh Freeman, Bucs
RB – Matt Forte, Bears
RB – BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
WR – Mike Wallace, Steelers
WR – Stevie Johnson, Bills
Flex – Darren McFadden, Raiders
TE – Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
K – Dan Carpenter, Dolphins
Defense – Detroit Lions

Matt Cassel is another name that I easily could have included at QB. Raise your hand if you had Cassel and Freeman as top 10 QBs this year. No hands raised…I didn’t think so.

Forte rebounded from his sophomore slump to be a great value in 2010. Green-Ellis came out of nowhere to be one of the most consistent touchdown producers in the league. I chose McFadden as the flex because what he lacks in consistency and health, he more than makes up for in sheer explosiveness. McFadden single-handedly won at least two matchups for his owners this year, finally becoming the player we thought he’d be coming out of college. He’s always a risk, but the reward is finally starting to make it worthwhile.

Did you know that both Wallace and Johnson were top 10 receivers this year? Wallace definitely made the jump from risky play to weekly start and should be drafted as a #1 WR next year. Stevie J made plenty of headlines for his untimely overtime drop, but that should not mask the fact that he had over 1,000 yards and scored 10 TDs.

Marcedes Lewis finally made the leap from mercurial talent to consistent producer, notching 9 touchdowns this season and providing stability at an unstable position.

Dan Carpenter can be hit or miss, but his good weeks are really good. I don’t see the Dolphins’ offense becoming appreciably better in 2011, which means plenty more long field goal attempts for Carpenter.

The Lions Defense is one of the up-and-coming units to keep an eye on. With Ndamukong Suh creating all kinds of havoc in the trenches, and the overall talented improving elsewhere, this defense could take a step into fantasy elite status next year.

The Hindsight is 20/20 Best & Worst Draft Pick for Each BFL2010 Owner

With the benefit of 16 weeks worth of hindsight, let’s go all the way back to that incredible morning in the NFL boardroom and highlight the best and worst pick for each BFL2010 owner.

I won’t be including players who were injured in the worst picks, because that’s just unfair. Rather, I’ll try to think back to what we knew on draft day and then assess how picks matched the generally expected values, with my own subjective biases obviously factored in.

Additionally, I encourage you to check out the websites of the other BFL2010 owners, all whom you should be reading and following on Twitter if you are not already.

Press Coverage

Owner – Dan Levy of PressCoverage.us and On the DL Podcast
Draft Position: 3/22
Best pick: Pittsburgh D, round 14
Worst pick: Steve Smith CAR, round 4

DayQuil Fighter of the NyQuil

Owner – Josh Zerkle of With Leather
Draft Position: 5/20
Best Pick: Santonio Holmes, round 10
Worst Pick: CJ Spiller, round 4

Sweaty Ditkas

Owner – Matt Sebek of Joe Sports Fan
Draft Position: 12/13
Best Pick: Jason Witten, round 6
Worst Pick: Jahvid Best, round 3

Team Gunaxin

Owner – Phil Van der Vossen of Gunaxin
Draft Position: 9/16
Best Pick: Darren McFadden, round 10
Worst Pick: Donald Brown, round 8

Febreze Freshness

Owner – Kyle Bunch of The Daily Bunch
Draft Position: 6/19
Best Pick: Green Bay Packers D, round 13
Worst Pick: Justin Forsett, round 5

Fresh 2 Death

Owner – Diana Klochkova formerly of The National Football Post
Draft Position: 10/15
Best Pick: Terrell Owens, round 10
Worst Pick: Randy Moss, round 1

99-Rated Swagger

Owner – Dan Shanoff 0f DanShanoff.com
Draft Position: 1/24
Best Pick: Tom Brady, round 2
Worst Pick: Michael Crabtree, round 5

DVOA vs GERD

Owner – Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders
Draft Position: 11/14
Best Pick: Arian Foster, round 6 and Mike Williams, round 11
Worst Pick: Donovan McNabb, round 7

For a Better Looking Tomorrow

Owner – Steph Stradley of the Texans Chick blog for Houston Chronicle
Draft Position: 8/17
Best Pick: Hakeem Nicks, round 6
Worst Pick: Ryan Mathews, round 2

Midwest Sports Fans

Owner – Jerod Morris of Midwest Sports Fans
Draft Position: 4/21
Best Pick: Mike Wallace, round 6
Worst Pick: Sidney Rice, round 4

Fuzzy Gullets

Owner – Will Brinson of CBS Sports
Draft Position: 2/23
Best Pick: Dwayne Bowe, round 5 and Matt Cassel, round 11
Worst Pick: Beanie Wells, round 2 and Jerome Harrison, round 7

What Would Revis Do

Owner – Brian Bassett of The Jets Blog
Draft Position: 7/18
Best Pick: Marques Colston, round 4…except that he later dropped him
Worst Pick: Shonn Greene, round 2 and the Jets D, round 7

If you have any 2010 hardware that you’d like to hand out, the comment section is yours. I’ll be especially interested to hear if anyone can argue with Vick as the fantasy football MVP. To me it’s clear, but I’m sure there will be some dissenting opinions out there somewhere.

Finally, I just want to reiterate my appreciation to P&G for making the 2010 Blogger Fantasy Football League possible, and for giving me the chance to send so many of our loyal readers the useful gift packs filled with P&G goodies. I wish I’d fielded a better team so I could have had a better shot at the Super Bowl tickets, but it just wasn’t meant to be. What was meant to be was a terrific experience with a bunch of my fellow bloggers that I will always remember. Thank you P&G, and again congrats to Team Fresh 2 Death, a most worthy champion.

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Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: blogger fantasy football league, fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football 2010, fantasy football awards, michael vick fantasy

Fantasy Football Week 17 Start / Sit Advice

December 28, 2010 by Guest Contributor · Comments Off

Friends, it’s been quite a ride here in 2010…for all of us.

I know from the discussions we’ve had in the comment section that many of you were triumphant and won championships this year. To all of you who won, I say congratulations. (For the record, I won championships in two out of my six leagues and made the playoffs in four out of six; all things considered, I’ll take that.)

I also know that some of you fell short, and that some of you fell short because of a recommendation of mine here or there that went awry. Trust me when I tell you that hearing those stories is truly disappointing and only serves to make me work harder and smarter in my never-ending quest to minimize bad picks and maximize the good ones.

We all know that perfection is never an option when it comes to fantasy football; it’s a game of attrition where the owner that is the least unperfect and most lucky wins. It’s what we all sign up for when the season begins, and it’s what we all must remember in good times and bad. And, for better or worse, we’re all just one great run or one devastating injury away from a championship or a last place finish next year.

So no matter what happened in 2010, don’t get too high nor too low. Remember that fantasy football is meant to be fun, and then take whatever lessons you were able to learn this year and stick them in your back pocket for next year.

Now, with all that said, it’s quite possible that some of you are still playing. Though I think it is a terrible way to set up a league, I know that some leagues do have their championships in Week 17. From years past, I know that these leagues are the minority, but I want to make sure that I’m here for anyone who is interested in my Week 17 start ‘em, sit ‘em advice.

I will not be doing a traditional start ‘em, sit ‘em post this week, nor a Week 17 rankings post. For one thing, it’s an even more random exercise than normal, with some teams already having playoff spots sewn up and teams in 4:00 games being in different situations based on what happens in the 1:00 games, etc. Things will change every 24 hours this week, and with far fewer people likely to read this post, I cannot justify the time it takes to write it.

That said, I’ll still be here to answer specific questions, which I think is the most important part of the weekly start ‘em, sit ‘em post anyway. So feel free to use the comment section below to pose any and all Week 17 questions, and I will be around Sunday morning with another live chat to help you out with the last second calls.

Finally, I just want to say to those of you whose seasons are over, and who have been loyal readers this season, thank you. I really appreciate your consistent visits to the site and your kind words of thanks throughout the season. I hope I’ve steered you in the right direction more than often than not, and hopefully we can all resume our championship quests together next season.

Before we delve into the Week 16 start ‘em, sit ‘em Q&A below, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 15 top-line picks:

Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 16 top-line picks:

Start em hits: Josh Freeman, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Start em misses: Larry Fitzgerald, Kevin Boss, New York Jets
Sit em hits: Joe Flacco, Peyton Hillis, Dallas D
Sit em misses: Dwayne Bowe, Jimmy Graham

As you can see, it was a mixed bag with the top line picks in Week 16. As usual though, my lineup specific advice was better than these general picks, in which regular readers know I try to be a bit riskier anyway. It doesn’t help anyone if I tell you to start Tom Brady.

Anyway, just know that I always review what goes right and what goes wrong and try to learn from it. Hopefully you do the same. The key to fantasy football is all about managing risk and return. You won’t always be right, you just need to be right a greater ratio of time than the other people in your league (and have good injury/matchup fortune along the way). That’s my philosophy and I’ll keep sticking to it.

Fire away. All Week 17 start ‘em, sit ‘em questions welcomed below. I’ll tell you right now one guy I like a lot this week: David Garrard. If Tim Tebow can be fantasy-relevant against Houston, I think it’s safe to have confidence in a guy like Garrard, who has everything to play for and who finally has become a consistent fantasy contributor.

Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football start em sit em, fantasy football start sit, fantasy football week 17, Fantasy Sports, NFL

Fantasy Football Week 17 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Q&A

December 28, 2010 by Jerod-Morris · Comments Off

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Friends, it’s been quite a ride here in 2010…for all of us.

Before we delve into the Week 16 start ‘em, sit ‘em Q&A below, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 15 top-line picks:

Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 16 top-line picks:

Start em hits: Josh Freeman, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Start em misses: Larry Fitzgerald, Kevin Boss, New York Jets
Sit em hits: Joe Flacco, Peyton Hillis, Dallas D
Sit em misses: Dwayne Bowe, Jimmy Graham

Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: david garrard fantasy, fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football start em sit em, fantasy football week 17, Start Em Sit Em

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sunday Live Chat

December 26, 2010 by Guest Contributor · Comments Off

Every Sunday morning starting at 10:00 CT (11:00 ET) we are here to answer your last minute start/sit questions. And we’ll be here again today, even though it took me until 9:00 on Sunday morning to get this posted.

I’ll be in an out until about 10:30 am, but then I’ll be here answering until about 11:30 am.

<a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=505c9b01cc" >Fantasy Football Sunday Live Chat – Week 16</a>

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Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football live chat, fantasy football week 16, Fantasy Sports, NFL

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sunday Live Chat

December 26, 2010 by Jerod-Morris · Comments Off

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I’ll be in an out until about 10:30 am, but then I’ll be here answering until about 11:30 am.

<a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=505c9b01cc" >Fantasy Football Sunday Live Chat – Week 16</a>

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Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football live chat, fantasy football week 16, Football Live Chats

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings for Playoffs

December 21, 2010 by Jerod-Morris · Comments Off

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No P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* to prepare for this week, but I’m still alive in my longest-tenured league, plus I get live vicariously through all of you who are still alive. That’s what makes running this site such a positive experience.

Make sure you check out the Week 16 start ‘em, sit ‘em projections as well as the Week 16 waiver wire sleeper picks. Then use these rankings to see how, all things being equal, I rate one player versus another.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings

***Carolina and Pittsburgh play on Thursday night this week; Dallas and Arizona play on Saturday night***

Remember, these rankings are general. They are a guide for how I view players in relationship to one another, but could and would vary based on your league’s scoring settings. Also, the specifics of your roster could dictate whether one player plays over another. So use this is as a guide and feel free to ask specific questions below.

And a lot can still change between now and Sunday. I will update these rankings at least once between now and kickoff. Follow us on Twitter for all the latest player updates and late breaking fantasy-relevant news.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: QB

Not ranked due to injury: Brett Favre (at PHI); Drew Stanton (at MIA);

Tom Brady (at BUF)
Peyton Manning (at OAK)
Michael Vick (v MIN)
Drew Brees (at ATL)
Philip Rivers (at CIN)
Josh Freeman (v SEA)
Matt Schaub (at DEN)
Matt Ryan (v NO)
Aaron Rodgers (v NYG) – he was close to playing in Week 15, so I assume he’ll be back this week
Eli Manning (at GB)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (v NE)
David Garrard (v WAS)
Jon Kitna (at ARI)
Matt Cassel (v TEN)
Joe Flacco (at CLE)
Rex Grossman (at JAX)
Kerry Collins (at KC)
Colt McCoy (v BAL)
Jay Cutler (v NYJ)
Ben Roethlisberger (v CAR)
Tim Tebow (v HOU)
Sam Bradford (v SF)
John Skelton (v DAL)
Mark Sanchez (at CHI)
Carson Palmer (v SD)
Chad Henne (v DET)
Shaun Hill (at MIA) – signs are pointing to him starting
Jason Campbell (v IND)
Alex Smith (at STL)
Matt Hasselbeck (at TB)
Jimmy Clausen (at PIT)
Joe Webb (at PHI)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: RB

Not ranked due to injury: Knowshon Moreno (v HOU);

Arian Foster (at DEN)
Michael Turner (v NO)
Darren McFadden (v IND)
Ray Rice (at CLE)
Chris Johnson (at KC)
Jamaal Charles (v TEN)
Maurice Jones-Drew (v WAS)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (at BUF)
Rashard Mendenhall (v CAR)
Adrian Peterson (at PHI) – he was a late scratch, in large part due to the weather, so I think he’ll play
LeSean McCoy (v MIN)
LeGarrette Blount (v SEA)
Steven Jackson (v SF)
Felix Jones (at ARI)
Fred Jackson (v NE)
Ryan Torain (at JAX)
Ahmad Bradshaw (at GB)
Peyton Hillis (v BAL)
Jonathan Stewart (at PIT)
Mike Tolbert (at CIN)
Marshawn Lynch (at TB)
Brandon Jacobs (at GB)
Matt Forte (v NYJ)
Chris Ivory (at ATL)
Cedric Benson (v SD)
Donald Brown (at OAK)
Ronnie Brown (v DET)
Thomas Jones (v TEN)
Michael Bush (v IND)
Tashard Choice (at ARI)
Danny Woodhead (at BUF)
Maurice Morris (at MIA)
Brandon Jackson (v NYG)
Brian Westbrook (at STL)
Tim Hightower (v DAL)
Ricky Williams (v DET)
Shonn Greene (at CHI)
Rashad Jennings (v WAS)
Ryan Mathews (at CIN)
Reggie Bush (at ATL)
LaDainian Tomlinson (at CHI)
Jason Snelling (v NO)
Mike Goodson (at PIT)
Toby Gerhart (at PHI)
Darren Sproles (at CIN)
Willis McGahee (at CLE)
Pierre Thomas (at ATL)
CJ Spiller (v NE)
Cadillac Williams (v SEA)
Correll Buckhalter (v HOU)
Anthony Dixon (at STL)
Beanie Wells (v DAL)
Jahvid Best (at MIA)
Javarris James (at OAK)
Justin Forsett (at TB)
Keiland Williams (at JAX)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: WR

Not ranked due to injury: Jason Avant (v MIN); Austin Collie (at OAK)

Hakeem Nicks (at GB)
Roddy White (v NO)
Andre Johnson (at DEN)
Reggie Wayne (at OAK)
Stevie Johnson (v NE)
Mike Wallace (v CAR)
Greg Jennings (v NYG)
Jeremy Maclin (v MIN)
Larry Fitzgerald (v DAL)
Calvin Johnson (at MIA)
Wes Welker (at BUF)
Marques Colston (at ATL)
Santana Moss (at JAX)
Desean Jackson (v MIN)
Mike Williams TB (v SEA)
Brandon Marshall (v DET)
Vincent Jackson (at CIN)
Brandon Lloyd (v HOU)
Pierre Garcon (at OAK)
Kenny Britt (at KC)
Dwayne Bowe (v TEN)
Santonio Holmes (at CHI)
Anquan Boldin (at CLE)
Malcom Floyd (at CIN)
Lance Moore (at ATL)
Deion Branch (at BUF)
Mario Manningham (at GB)
Mike Williams SEA (at TB)
Davone Bess (v DET)
Mike Sims-Walker (v WAS)
Miles Austin (at ARI)
Danny Amendola (v SF)
Hines Ward (v CAR)
Derrick Mason (at CLE)
Jacoby Ford (v IND)
Anthony Armstrong (at JAX)
Mike Thomas (v WAS)
Kevin Walter (at DEN)
Braylon Edwards (at CHI)
Earl Bennett (at MIN)
Blair White (at OAK)
Percy Harvin (at PHI)
Robert Meachem (at ATL)
Brandon Gibson (v SF)
Johnny Knox (v NYJ)
Nate Burleson (at MIA)
David Nelson (v NE)
Sidney Rice (v CHI)
James Jones (v NYG)
Jerricho Cotchery (at CHI)
Jacoby Jones (at DEN)
Michael Jenkins (v NO)
Arrelious Benn (v SEA)
Roy Williams (at ARI)
Emmanuel Sanders (v CAR)
Nate Washington (at KC)
Eddie Royal (v HOU)
Steve Smith (at PIT)
Donald Driver (v NYG)
Danny Woodhead (at BUF)
Chad Ochocinco (v SD)
Devin Hester (v NYJ)
Andre Caldwell (v SD)
Steve Breaston (v DAL)
Josh Morgan (at STL)
Michael Crabtree (at STL)
Devery Henderson (at ATL)
David Gettis (at PIT)
TJ Houshmandzadeh (at CLE)
Dexter McCluster (v TEN)
Louis Murphy (v IND)
Mohamed Massaqoui (v BAL)
Derek Hagan (at GB)
Jabar Gaffney (v HOU)
Jordan Shipley (v SD)
Laurent Robinson (v SF)
Ruvell Martin (at TB)
Danario Alexander (v SF)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: TE

Not ranked due to injury: Antonio Gates (at CIN)

Jason Witten (at ARI)
Benjamin Watson (v BAL)
Tony Gonzalez (v NO)
Marcedes Lewis (v WAS)
Chris Cooley (at JAX)
Kevin Boss (at GB)
Vernon Davis (at STL)
Jacob Tamme (at OAK)
Brent Celek (v MIN)
Kellen Winslow (v SEA)
Owen Daniels (at DEN)
Zach Miller (v IND)
Rob Gronkowski (at BUF)
Brandon Pettigrew (at MIA)
Randy McMichael (at CIN)
Aaron Hernandez (at BUF)
Jimmy Graham (at ATL)
Dustin Keller (at CHI)
Anthony Fasano (v DET)
Jeremy Shockey (at ATL)
Tony Moeaki (v TEN)
Heath Miller (v CAR)
Visanthe Shiancoe (at PHI)
Andrew Quarless (v NYG)
Jermaine Gresham (v SD)
Greg Olsen (v NYJ)
John Carlson (at TB)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: Defense

Chicago (v NYJ)
Pittsburgh (v CAR)
New York Jets (at CHI)
Green Bay (v NYG)
Baltimore (at CLE)
New York Giants (at GB)
New England (at BUF)
Miami (v DET)
St. Louis (v San Francisco)
San Francisco (at STL)
Philadelphia (v MIN)
Tampa Bay (v SEA)
Detroit (at MIA)
San Diego (at CIN)
Tennessee (at KC)
Atlanta (v NO)
Kansas CIty (v TEN)
New Orleans (at ATL)
Carolina (at PIT)
Seattle (at TB)
Minnesota (at PHI)
Cleveland (v BAL)
Dallas (at ARI)
Indianapolis (at OAK)
Oakland (v IND)
Cincinnati (v SD)
Houston (at DEN)
Washington (at JAX)
Arizona (v DAL)
Jacksonville (v WAS)
Denver (v HOU)
Buffalo (v NE)

NOTE: I will not be answering questions from Wednesday, December 22rd starting at about 5:00 until Friday morning (the 24th). So don’t panic if you don’t get answers right away. I’ll do my best to get all caught up before kickoff on Sunday.

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Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football playoffs, fantasy football rankings, fantasy football week 16, Weekly Rankings

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start / Sit Picks

December 20, 2010 by Guest Contributor · Comments Off

As I mentioned in the Week 16 waiver wire sleeper picks column, it’s a good thing the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* was not my only league. I made the playoffs in three other leagues, which gave me plenty of incentive to keep working hard doing the research it takes to write these columns and answer questions all week.

And luckily, despite having some bad matchups and making a few bad decisions, I was able to advance to the championship round in one of my leagues. Considering that it’s the league I’ve been in the longest – damn near a decade now, with some of my best friends – you can bet I’ll be overturning every stone to find an advantage. (Of course, when you have Tom Brady at QB and Michael Vick for an any-position flex spot, it’s not really that difficult….)

Before we delve into the Week 16 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 15 top-line picks:

Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 15 top-line picks:

Start em hits: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Stewart, Jason Witten, Miami D
Start em misses: Pierre Garcon (damn you Austin Collie!),
Sit em hits: Christopher Ivory (was inactive due to hammy), Ben Roethlisberger; Green Bay D; Rob Gronkowski
Sit em misses: Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Picks

***Carolina and Pittsburgh play on Thursday night; Dallas and Arizona play on Saturday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em QB: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (v Seattle)

Choosing the start ‘em QB this week was tricky. I try not to make the pick obvious, which ruled out telling you to start guys with great matchups who you are probably already starting like Peyton Manning (at OAK) and Tom Brady (at BUF). In addition, the four teams with the worst passing defenses are all facing inexperienced QBs that I would not want to trust in the championship round: Dallas (John Skelton); Houston (Tim Tebow); Philadelphia (Joe Webb); Jacksonville (Rex Grossman).

So why did I settle on Freeman over the other guys you see in the bulleted list below? It’s pretty simple: he is the best combination of season-long consistency and matchup.

Freeman has thrown for at least one TD in nine straight games. He also only has one game all year in which he has thrown more than one interception, and he has just six INTs on the season. He has also run for over 300 yards, which gives him an extra point or two each week. Finally, Freeman and the Bucs face Seattle in Tampa Bay this week. The Seahawks’ pass defense is pathetic, having given up 26 TD passes on the season.

It’s the championship round, or perhaps the Final Four for you, and you need guaranteed production. Few QBs in the NFL have been as a consistently a 12+ point scorer this season as Freeman has been.

Josh Freeman fantasy football Week 16 projection: 230 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 35 yards rushing

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (v Baltimore)

Before I go any further, a quick reminder: just because someone is listed as a sit ‘em, does NOT mean that you automatically sit them. Peyton Hillis will still likely be a top 20 back this week, but I put him to highlight his tough matchup, rough three-game stretch, and the fact that he is not a must-start in Week 16.

I imagine Hillis powered a lot of teams to the playoffs, and that many Hillis owners are still going in Week 16, which is part of why I wanted to list him here. The problem is that Hillis has not been nearly as good over the last three weeks as he had been during the 11 previous weeks. Hillis has not scored a TD since Week 12, though he did rack up 108 yards rushing against Buffalo.

This week, Hillis gets to face the less than generous Baltimore Ravens run defense that has given up just five rushing TDs on the season. Ask Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush what it’s like facing the Ravens. Now, you’ll recall that Hillis ran for 144 yards and a TD against Baltimore in 4. The way I see it, that was a much fresher Hillis – he’d never had more than 68 carries in a season coming into this one – and Baltimore’s run D has improved as the weather has gotten worse.

Final verdict: Hillis is still worth starting, but he could very well be the odd man out if you happen to be stacked at RB. Don’t be afraid to sit him if that’s the case.

Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 16 projection: 65 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 4 catches, 30 yards

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Tennessee)

Bowe shocked the fantasy world by being the best WR in the league over the first 13 weeks of the season. He caught 14 TDs and during a three-game stretch from Week 12 through Week 12 he did not catch less than 109 yards or fewer than two TDs in any game. To put it simply, Bowe was awesome.

But then Week 13 happened, and Bowe got shut out. This was surprising, but he did have Champ Bailey on him. In Week 14, Bowe caught one pass for three yards as Brodie Croyle filled in for Matt Cassel. Okay, we all thought, he just needs Cassel back. Then, in Week 15, he got Cassel back and had just two catches for 53 yards against St. Louis. While that’s a nice average, it’s not a particularly strong fantasy day.

So what do you do now that we’re in Week 16, all the marbles are on the line, and the guy who carried you to the playoffs has now been worthless for three straight weeks? If it’s me, and I have decent alternatives, I sit him.

In addition to Bowe’s struggles over the past couple of weeks, he has to face a Tennessee pass D that is in the top third in league in terms of fewest TD passes allowed. While both Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter caught TD passes against the Titans last week, both were caught after the Titans had jumped out to a huge lead. I don’t think we’ll see Kansas City having to scramble playing catch up next week.

The Chiefs are built around the run and will continue to focus on the run now that their passing game has struggled for three straight weeks. Bowe is not a terrible option, but like Hillis, there is a chance that if you go this far that you have good alternatives. This would be a week to use them.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs

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Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football start em sit em, fantasy football week 16, Fantasy Sports

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice for Playoffs

December 20, 2010 by Jerod-Morris · Comments Off

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Before we delve into the Week 16 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 15 top-line picks:

Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 15 top-line picks:

Start em hits: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Stewart, Jason Witten, Miami D
Start em misses: Pierre Garcon (damn you Austin Collie!),
Sit em hits: Christopher Ivory (was inactive due to hammy), Ben Roethlisberger; Green Bay D; Rob Gronkowski
Sit em misses: Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice for the Playoffs

***Carolina and Pittsburgh play on Thursday night; Dallas and Arizona play on Saturday night.***

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em QB: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (v Seattle)

So why did I settle on Freeman over the other guys you see in the bulleted list below? It’s pretty simple: he is the best combination of season-long consistency and matchup.

Josh Freeman fantasy football Week 16 projection: 230 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 35 yards rushing

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 16:

Matt Schaub continues to rack up yards and TDs, despite not leading the Texans to many wins. I’m sure he’ll do it again versus Denver in Week 16.
Jon Kitna is a solid play against Arizona in Week 16. While the main weakness of the Arizona D is against the run, the Cowboys have actually had more success in the red zone throwing the ball. Kitna has two TD passes in two straight games.
David Garrard continues to be startable each and every week. Against Washington’s defense, he’s startable again this week.
With Buffalo likely to be down, and New England sporting an inconsistent secondary, Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a terrible option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (at Cleveland)

Joe Flacco was outstanding against the Browns when the teams played earlier this season. He threw three touchdowns and was not intercepted. As impressive as those stats were, however, they are actually an anomaly in terms of Flacco’s career numbers against Cleveland. In Flacco’s other four starts against Cleveland, he has just three total touchdowns and has been picked off twice.

Also, while Flacco’s overall numbers are very good this season, he is a guy who has not been as good on the road as he has been at home. Seven of Flacco’s eight interceptions this season have come on the road, though he has thrown 10 TDs in his seven road starts thus far.

I don’t think Flacco will put up terrible numbers this week, but with a lot of the top flight QBs having good matchups, and some usual borderline plays have really good matchups, I think Flacco slides down the list of QBs I’d want to use this week.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 16 projection: 235 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 16:

I know that Eli Manning exploded with four TD passes last week, and now has 28 on the season, but he faces a Green Bay defense in Week 16 that is much tougher against the pass than Philadelphia.
Sam Bradford is struggling mightily these days. The matchup isn’t terrible this week (at home v San Francisco), but you just can’t trust Sam right now.
I am still not a big fan of Ben Roethlisberger. Carolina has given up just 16 TD passes on the season, and the Steelers offense continues to look a bit out of sync.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England (at Buffalo)

Few teams have been as bad as the Buffalo Bills against the run this year. Not only do they give up a little over a TD per game on the ground, but they give up an average of 150+ rushing yards as well. When one of the hottest backs in football is facing a defense this bad, it’s an obvious choice for the start ‘em RB.

Green-Ellis has scored at least one TD in four straight games (with two scores in two of those games). Over his last 11 games, Green-Ellis has scored in nine of them. With stout run defenses like the Jets, Bears, and Steelers included among those he has put up good numbers against, why in the world would you even consider sitting him against Buffalo?

BenJarvus Green-Ellis fantasy football Week 16 projection: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 16:

I know that Arian Foster disappointed you in Week 15, but assuming he plays this week (he was apparently dealing with an ankle injury) there are few matchups as good for RBs as Denver. Keep Foster in your lineup.
Rashard Mendenhall did not score or eclipse 3.7 yards per carry in Week 13 or 14, leading to some worry among his owners. He rebounded in Week 15 against the Jets with 100 yards and a TD. Carolina gives up more than a TD per game on the ground, making Mendenhall an obvious start.
Felix Jones had 80+ total yards for the 5th straight week in Week 15. While he only has one TD during that span, and continues to lose red zone carries to Tashard Choice, Jones is worth starting against an awful Arizona run defense. He is an especially good start in yardage-only and PPR leagues. And in TD-based leagues, Choice isn’t a terrible option himself.
Mike Tolbert is like a poor man’s BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He doesn’t usually get the touches that The Lawfirm gets, but Tolbert has scored a TD in 10 of the Chargers’ 14 games. I like those odds, especially against a so-so Cincy run D.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (v Baltimore)

Final verdict: Hillis is still worth starting, but he could very well be the odd man out if you happen to be stacked at RB. Don’t be afraid to sit him if that’s the case.

Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 16 projection: 65 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 4 catches, 30 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 16:

For all those who were excited about Tim Hightower before Week 15, do you now understand why I wasn’t? 6 carries for 16 yards against the pathetic Carolina run D. That’s terrible.
The Rams had given up just 7 rushing TDs leading into Week 15. While the Chiefs scored two against them last week, the 49ers are not nearly as good as the Rams running the football. I don’t like either Brian Westbrook or Anthony Dixon this week.
Atlanta is pretty good against the run, especially at home. With Chris Ivory dealing with a hamstring injury, I’d prefer not to use him this week if I can help it. And after what Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush did last week (nothing) I don’t want to use either of them either.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona (v Dallas)

Cardinals rookie QB John Skelton is not very good, and he has the putrid stats to prove it. What he is, though, is smart. He does not complete a lot of passes and he does not throw for a lot of yards, but whatever he does get goes to Larry Fitzgerald.

In Week 15, Fitzgerald had 9 of Skelton’s 17 completions and 125 of his 196 yards. This comes on the heels of two games in which Fitzgerald has caught at least four passes and had at least 61 yards. The downside is that Fitzgerald has no TDs since Week 11.

Enter: the Dallas Cowboys defense.

Coming into Week 15, no defense had given up more passing touchdowns than Dallas. The Cowboys had given up a whopping 31 and then let the immortal Rex Grossman toss four more against them last week. If Grossman can throw four TDs, surely Skelton can throw at least one against them…right? If he does, we know who it’s going to.

Larry Fitzgerald fantasy football Week 16 projection: 7 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 16:

After seeing what fresh-legged Vincent Jackson did last week, don’t you have to start him this week? Against a defense that game up two TD passes to Colt McCoy in Week 15, I think you do.
After suffering another concussion, you have to think that Austin Collie will miss this week. If so, Pierre Garcon becomes a great option again.
Mike Williams TB did it again. Another week, another touchdown, which is the 8th on the season for the rookie. If I think Josh Freeman is going to throw two TDs this week, certainly Williams will be catching at least one.
Santana Moss caught two TDs last week and has another great matchup this week against Indy. Keep him in your lineups.
Lance Moore now has 8 TD catches on the season and grabs 5-6 passes every week. What’s not to like?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Tennessee)

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 16:

Hines Ward continued his trend of being good one week and then not good the next. Since he’s not catching TDs, he’s really not worth gambling on.
Michael Crabtree appeared to be ready to break out earlier this season, but he has just one TD catch over the last four games and has not caught more than three passes in any game. Josh Morgan is actually a better option right now than Crabtree.
Mr. Hit or Miss Robert Meachem was a miss in Week 15. Unless you’re desperate, I would not want to roll the dice on him in the championship round.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em TE: Kevin Boss, New York Giants (at Green Bay)

Boss will never overwhelm you with outstanding catch or yardage totals, but he has caught TDs in three of the Giants’ last four games. With Steve Smith out for the season, it appears that Boss has stepped into the role of Manning’s trusted short and over-the-middle option. While he’s pretty hit or miss, needing a TD to have decent value, he’s been a “hit” more than not lately and New England tight ends are doing well against Green Bay so far on the Sunday night.

Kevin Boss fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 16:

Owen Daniels had another nice day and is back to his old self, catching 4-5 passes for 60-80 yards per game. Perhaps he can even mix in a TD this week.
Another NFC East tight end that is doing the most with limited targets is Brent Celek. He has TDs in two of the last three games and at least 50 yards in each game.
Benjamin Watson is definitely worth starting when Colt McCoy is his QB.
I guess it’s Rob Gronkowski‘s turn to start, right?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em TE: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans (at Atlanta)

You might think I’m crazy, seeing as how Graham is coming off a two-TD game in Week 15. However, consider the following:

No team has been stingier against opposing tight ends this season than Atlanta.
After seeing Graham score two TDs this week, don’t you think Atlanta will be keying on Graham this week? I do. Is the young, inexperienced Graham ready for that?
The Saints spread the ball around so much that it is terribly to difficult to predict from week to week who will have a solid numbers other than Marques Colston and Lance Moore.
Graham had one catch in Week 14 before catching 5 passes for just 29 yards but two TDs in Week 15. Do you want to count on a player that volatile for your title round?

I think there are safer options this week. Graham may very well prove to be a poor man’s Antonio Gates in coming seasons as a bball player turned great tight end, but this isn’t the week to trust him.

Jimmy Graham fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 16:

Brandon Pettigrew just isn’t the same without Shaun Hill targeting him a bunch each week. You can’t trust him right now. (However, Hill may end up starting this week. If that ends up happening, upgrade Pettigrew a bit.)
Dustin Keller had another worthless week. Tough to trust him anymore either.
I guess it’s Aaron Hernandez‘s turn to sit, right?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em Defense: New York Jets (at Chicago)

Don’t get cute or overthink yourself come championship time. The Jets love to blitz and Jay Cutler can get flustered by blitzing teams. The Bears will also be coming off a short week, having played Monday night against the Bears. And while the Jets have struggled recently, the defense has played pretty well against everyone but New England. This is a very solid option.

New York Jets fantasy football Week 16 projection: 17 points or less, 3 TOs, 3 sacks

Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 16:

I know that Pittsburgh is without Troy Polamalu, but getting to face Jimmy Clausen cancels that out.
You know what I said about not getting cute and overthinking yourself? That applies to the Chicago Bears too. I am still not a believer in the Jets’ offense, which makes the Bears a solid play this week.
The San Francisco-St. Louis game features two decent defenses and a couple of struggling offenses. I think either is a nice play in what should be an ugly, low scoring game.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em Defense: Dallas Cowboys (at Arizona)

For some reason, people have been warming to the Dallas Cowboys defense, despite the fact that it’s been one of the worst in the league all season. I have to admit, even I thought they’d be worthwhile against Rex Grossman last week, but then Grossman went out and tossed 4 TDs against them. While the Cowboys still got sacks and a few turnovers, it’s tough to be a consistent fantasy defense when you’re giving up 28 points per game. Even against John Skelton this week, I don’t like the Cowboys.

Dallas Cowboys fantasy football Week 16 projection: 24 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 16:

In that same game, I don’t like Arizona either. I think we’re in for a high scoring Saturday night affair.
Atlanta’s defense is very good, especially at home, but they face the Saints this week. I have a feeling we’ll see some points scored indoors with these two teams. I’d like to bench both Atlanta and New Orleans if I could.

The comment section is below for all your Week 16 questions. Ask away!

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Tagged: aaron hernandez fantasy, anthony dixon fantasy, arian foster fantasy, ben roethlisberger fantasy, benjamin watson fantasy, benjarvus green-ellis fantasy, brandon pettigrew fantasy, brent celek fantasy, brian westbrook fantasy, chris ivory fantasy, david garrard fantasy, dustin keller fantasy, dwayne bowe fantasy, eli manning fantasy, fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football playoffs, fantasy football projections, fantasy football start em sit em, fantasy football week 16, felix jones fantasy, hines ward fantasy, jimmy graham fantasy, joe flacco fantasy, jon kitna fantasy, josh freeman fantasy, josh morgan fantasy, kevin boss fantasy, matt schaub fantasy, michael crabtree fantasy, mike tolbert fantasy, owen daniels fantasy, peyton hillis fantasy, pierre thomas fantasy, rashard mendenhall fantasy, reggie bush fantasy, rob gronkowski fantasy, robert meachem fantasy, sam bradford fantasy, Start Em Sit Em, tashard choice fantasy, tim hightower fantasy

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers

December 19, 2010 by Guest Contributor · Comments Off

As you know, I was eliminated from the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* last week. Luckily I played in six leagues this year, making the playoffs in four of them, and giving me plenty of motivation to stay up on the latest in the fantasy world.

With the carnage of Week 15 now settling in, it looks like I will have one team advancing to the championship round. While I’d like to have more than one chance at a title, if I was going to pick a league to win other than the P&G league, it would be this one. It’s the league with all my college friends that I’ve been in for close to 10 years now. Major bragging rights are on the line!

So as we look forward to Week 16, I know that there will be less of you reading these articles, but I also know that the stakes are as high as possible, so I’m not skimping on the research, recommendations, or Q&A.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers

***Carolina and Pittsburgh play Thursday night; Dallas and Arizona play Saturday night.***

Remember, a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues to be included in this post. Additionally, I primarily focus on players’ values for Week 16, although in certain cases I’ll recommend players who may not be immediately valuable this week but who stand out as valuable long-term acquisitions.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers: QB

Jon Kitna, Dallas (49%, at Arizona)

Kitna had a very nice matchup in Week 15 against Washington, but I was worried that he could struggle with Dez Bryant and Roy Williams both out. There was nothing to worry about, however, as Kitna utilized Miles Austin and Jason Witten on his way to a stellar fantasy day. Arizona has a very up and down defense, and quarterbacks such as Troy Smith have had great days against the Cards. Kitna should be a safe bet for a couple of TD throws in Week 16.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers: WR

Danny Amendola, St. Louis (44%, v San Francisco)

Amendola had a couple of slow weeks, but he re-emerged in Week 15 with 7 catches for 60 yards against the Chiefs. The emergence of Brandon Gibson as Sam Bradford’s new favorite target probably helped to ease some pressure off of Amendola. Against San Franciso earlier this season, Amendola caught 7 passes for 51 yards and a TD. After watching the Chargers and Seahawks do well through the air against the 49ers the last couple of weeks, Amendola is probably the most likely to have a nice game against them in Week 16.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers: RB

Donald Brown, Indianapolis (28%, at Oakland)

Welcome back to the NFL Donald Brown! After doing nothing the last few weeks as the lone healthy back from the Colts’ original rotation (Addai, Hart both were inactive again), Brown exploded in Week 15. Granted, the matchup was very favorable (against Jacksonville), but 100+ yards and a TD is a solid day for anyone in the NFL. I had been high on Javarris James leading into Week 15, but it’s pretty clear that Donald Brown will be their feature back as long as Joseph Addai is out.

Caveat: you have to check Addai’s status leading up to kickoff. If he’s healthy, who the hell knows what the Colts’ backfield rotation will look like.

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Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: danny amendola, Donald Brown, fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football sleepers, fantasy football week 16, Fantasy Sports, Jon Kitna, NFL

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks for Playoffs

December 19, 2010 by Jerod-Morris · Comments Off

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Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks

***Carolina and Pittsburgh play Thursday night; Dallas and Arizona play Saturday night.***

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: QB

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo (49%, v New England)

I did not think Ryan Fitzpatrick was a very good start in Week 15 because he was going up against a Miami defense that had been playing very well. In addition, he had lost #2 WR Lee Evans. All Fitzpatrick did was go out and throw for 200+ yards and 2 TDs. With a Week 16 matchup against New England’s improving but imperfect pass defense, Fitzpatrick is a sneaky play.

Jon Kitna, Dallas (49%, at Arizona)

David Garrard, Jacksonville (48%, v Washington)

Garrard has been very consistent this year, and he has a terrific matchup against a Washington D that is dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness. Assuming Garrard is healthy (he was dealing with a gimpy hamstring before Week 15) he should be able to put up 2 total TDs (rushing or passing) and do what almost every other QB who has faced the Redskins has done: have a good fantasy day.

Tim Tebow, Denver (8%, v Houston)

I cannot believe that in Week 16 I can legitimately recommend Tim Tebow as a guy you should think about, but here we are.

Mainly, it is the matchup. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and everyone but Rusty Smith has been able to take advantage for a big fantasy day. While Tebow is much closer to Smith than he is a sure-fire top fantasy player, there are reasons to think he could have a nice day. Against Oakland in Week 15, Tebow scored a TD and threw for a TD in the first half. That running ability, which Smith did not have, is what gives Tebow value even if his throwing is off.

I would not start him over any of the guys listed above, but if you’re desperate or in a two-QB league, Tebow legitimately has some value this week. Crazy.

Rex Grossman, Washington (2%, at Washington)

Talk about crazy. Who would ever thought that both Tim Tebow and Rex Grossman would have value in Week 16. But they do!

Grossman returned as a starter in Week 15, replacing Donovan McNabb amid much fanfare, and responded by throwing four TD passes. As we saw in Chicago, Grossman is capable of huge 3- and 4-TD games, and he’s also capable of total stinkers. The only reason I’d consider him this week is because he is facing a Jacksonville defense that gives up a lot of yards and points.

Other names to keep your eye on:

Kerry Collins has now had two straight strong games. Playing at Kansas City is not a particularly great matchup, but at least Collins and the Titans offense has been clicking over the last six quarters.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: RB

Christopher Ivory, New Orleans (47%, at Atlanta)

There is no reason for Chris Ivory to be owned in less than 100% of leagues. I know he is dealing with a hamstring injury, but he has also run for five TDs over his last three games. He was a late scratch in Week 15, leading me to believe that his injury is not overly serious and that he’ll be able to play in Week 16. Sure, the matchup is tough, but Ivory should retain his starting job after Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush did nothing on the ground in Week 15.

Donald Brown, Indianapolis (28%, at Oakland)

Caveat: you have to check Addai’s status leading up to kickoff. If he’s healthy, who the hell knows what the Colts’ backfield rotation will look like.

Tashard Choice, Dallas (28%, at Arizona)

This one is all about the matchup. Arizona has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and even backups have value against them. Choice’s role has been a bit inconsistent lately, but he seems like a safe bet for around 10-12 touches — and I would think that he would still get these touches even if Marion Barber is back, though that’s not guaranteed. Felix Jones struggles to stay healthy throughout games, and Choice has been the guy getting the goalline carries. He’s not an ideal option, but if you’re desperate he does have some potential.

Maurice Morris, Detroit (9%, at Miami)

I really thought Jahvid Best was going to take the role of the Lions’ RB lead back. However, Maurice Morris was the one given the opportunity to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s weak run D in Week 15, and he responded. Morris scored a TD and had 100+ total yards. Miami is not a great matchup because they’ve been doing a great job against the run, but at least you know Morris will get double digit touches.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: WR

Mike Thomas, Jacksonville (43%, v Washington)

You would be wise to see if Mike Sims-Walker (64%) is available in your league. He isn’t racking up the catches or yards, but he’s become a reliable redzone target. If MSW is not available, Mike Thomas has some value against a Washington defense that can be thrown on. Thomas has two fluky TDs this year (Hail Mary, punt return) and hasn’t been doing as much damage as a WR lately. That could change this week in what should be a high scoring game.

Danny Amendola, St. Louis (44%, v San Francisco)

Jacoby Ford, Oakland (28%, v Indianapolis)

Jacoby Ford’s number of touches will never be consistent from week to week, but here is what does seem to be consistent: he always make a play. In Week 15, Ford had a rushing TD. We’ve seen him have a couple of 100-yard receiving games. Ford has also had two kickoff return TDs this year. If you’re desperate, Ford’s explosiveness makes him a decent flex option in TD leagues and return yardage leagues.

Kevin Walter, Houston (32%, at Denver)

We can give up on Walter having that breakout season where he becomes a 1,000-yard receiver and 8-10 TD guy. However, as the 2010 season goes along, Walter is showing increasing value. His catch and yardage numbers have increased for three straight weeks, and he caught a TD in Week 15. Walter is far from a sure thing, but with Champ Bailey likely to be clamping down on Andre Johnson, there could be some opportunities for Walter.

Anthony Armstrong, Washington (10%, at Jacksonville)

The Jags are not very good on defense, and Armstrong is coming off a 100-yard game in Week 15. While Santana Moss and Chris Cooley catch the TDs in Washington, Armstrong has plenty of value in yardage-based leagues. He is averaging nearly 20 yards per catch and, like Thomas, should be able to put some numbers in what should be a high scoring affair.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: TE

Owen Daniels, Houston (46%, at Denver)

That’s two straight games now that Daniels has put up nice catch and yardage totals for the Texans. I think it’s safe to say that he is healthy. With Andre Johnson likely to struggle at least some with Champ Bailey, and Matt Schaub doing a nice job of spreading it around lately, I anticipate Daniels being a top 10 tight end this week when I do the rankings.

Kevin Boss, New York Giants (37%, at Green Bay)

With Steve Smith out for the year, Boss has taken advantage by scoring three TDs over the last four weeks. He won’t wow you with his catch or yardage totals, but he has his QB’s confidence and trust. Boss, like Daniels, is a sneaky top 10 play this week at TE, and is surprisingly available in more than 60% of leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: Defense/Special Teams

St. Louis Rams (14%, v San Francisco)

The Rams’ defense has been playing worse as the season has gone along, but any defense facing Alex Smith and the 49ers is worth a shot. While Smith occasionally plays like the #1 overall pick he was supposed to be, he usually is too indecisive and inconsistent to be a huge threat, especially on the road. If you’re choosing from slop, the Rams are a decent option.

Detroit Lions (15%, at Miami)

The Lions continue to play hard despite being on their third QB and long since being eliminated from playoff contention. In Week 16, they get to face Chad Henne, who is one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL. While he and Brandon Marshall seemed to get going a bit in Week 16, you really don’t have to worry about Miami exploding for 17+ points. Again, like with the Rams, if you’re desperate for a D you could do worse than Detroit.

The comment section awaits for all your questions.

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Filed Under: Fantasy
Tagged: anthony armstrong fantasy, christopher ivory fantasy, danny amendola fantasy, david garrard fantasy, donald brown fantasy, fantasy, Fantasy Football, fantasy football playoffs, fantasy football sleeper picks, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football week 16, Football Sleepers, jacoby ford fantasy, jon kitna fantasy, kerry collins fantasy, kevin boss fantasy, kevin walter fantasy, matt hasselbeck fantasy, maurice morris fantasy, mike thomas fantasy, owen daniels fantasy, ryan fitzpatrick fantasy, tashard choice fantasy, tim tebow fantasy

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Commenting is turned off here, but head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to ask all of your Week 17 start ‘em, sit ‘em questions.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: QB

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: RB

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: WR

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: TE

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: Defense

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Picks

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em QB: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (v Seattle)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (v Baltimore)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Tennessee)

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see our extended start ‘em, sit ‘em projections at QB, RB, and WR, as well as our our start, sit picks at TE and Defense.

Commenting is turned off here, but feel free to ask any questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice for the Playoffs

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em QB: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (v Seattle)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (at Cleveland)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England (at Buffalo)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (v Baltimore)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona (v Dallas)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Tennessee)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em TE: Kevin Boss, New York Giants (at Green Bay)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em TE: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans (at Atlanta)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em Defense: New York Jets (at Chicago)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em Defense: Dallas Cowboys (at Arizona)

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers: QB

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers: WR

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers: RB

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see the rest of our waiver wire sleeper picks at QB, RB, and WR, as well as sleepers at TE and Defense.

Commenting is turned off here, but feel free to ask your questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: QB

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: RB

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: WR

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: TE

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: Defense/Special Teams

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