Fantasy Football Black & White: Will Matt Forte go boom or bust in 2010?

[Editor's note: Welcome to the first installment of Fantasy Football Black & White, a weekly fantasy football debate between MSF's own Jerod Morris and Robert Littal from Black Sports Online. Each week, Jerod and Rob will figure out what they genuinely disagree on and then analyze it for you in simple black and white terms, 250 words or less. Then you get the final decision. Is it black...or is it white? Michael Jackson couldn't decide...can you?]

In today’s edition of Black & White, Rob and Jerod debate Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, who was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2009 season.

Many people drafted Forte in the top 5 after his terrific rookie season, but Forte could never seem to find a rhythm behind a struggling an offensive line and with a QB who had a penchant for red zone INTs.

What will 2010 hold for Forte?

Many are predicting a bounce back year, mainly because Mike Martz has been brought in as offensive coordinator. However, these positive predictions are muted by the memories of last year, as well as Forte’s career sub-4.0 yard per carry average.

Rob tells you why Forte will be a bust, while Jerod thinks Forte will follow in the long line of successful fantasy RBs under Martz.

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Black: Matt Forte will be a bust in 2010

I can already hear it: “Mike Martz is going to make Matt Forte into a Poor Man’s Marshall Faulk.”

It can be argued that Faulk in his prime was the greatest Fantasy Football Running Back of all time, so a poor man’s version of him is much better than any back going in the 3rd round of drafts.

Unfortunately it will never happen.

Matt Forte has a lot of similar skills to Marshall Faulk, but the Bears are nowhere near the teams Faulk was on with the Colts and Rams. Jay Cutler is no Manning or Warner. Devin Hester is no Harrison, Bruce or Holt.

But beyond all of that, the #1 reason gambling on Forte is a bad move? The Bears offensive line may be the worst in the NFL.

If you are Barry Sanders you could make it work, but a straight ahead, one cut runner like Forte will never have an opportunity to shine.

PS – Sources tell me (Stephen A-style) don’t be shocked if Chester Taylor is starting by mid-season.

White: Matt Forte will go boom in 2010

Quick, go here and look at the bulleted list about halfway down the page. Those are the reception numbers for running backs under Martz. Notice a trend? Mike Martz running backs get involved in the passing game. Period. End of story.

And lest you think that career backup Chester Taylor will be anything but a backup this year, remember that Forte already has 120 receptions in just two seasons, so it’s not like he needs to come off the field on passing downs.

And what about the Bears’ offensive line? Yes, it sucks. So? That’s not great for the Bears in real life, and it won’t make things easy on Matt Forte, but it doesn’t make him fantasy asbestos. The guy accounted for 1,700 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie despite a 3.9 yard average, so he can be a very productive #2 fantasy back even if he’s not wowing you with Chris Johnson-type success.

If Forte just reaches the averages of his two seasons so far, his 2010 numbers will be as follows:

• 1,083 rushing yards
• 6 rushing TDs
• 60 receptions
• 474 receiving yards
• 2 receiving TDs

Would you take 1,500 total yards and 8 TDs from your #2 back? I sure as heck would. And that’s a conservative projection.

Throw in the potential for Forte to catch some Mike Martz magic, and this is a player who will be a fantasy boom based on where you can land him in your drafts.

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