Help me set my Week 14 lineups!

Friends, you have helped me out a great deal over the last two weeks. You’ve provided sage advice, some of which I took and some of which I should have taken but did not, and helped to guide my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* to the cusp of the playoffs.

And now it all comes down to this week.

I need to beat Team Gunaxin and then get a little bit help and I will make the playoffs. Our friend Dan Levy broke down the playoff scenarios here if you’re interested, but none of it matters if I don’t win, which will be a tremendous challenge because Team Gunaxin has an excellent roster and a bunch of red hot players.

I’ll show you my lineup as it sits right now, and then break down the position decisions one-by-one so you can vote and help me decide. (As always, the most thoughtful and well-reasoned responses will get P&G Gift Bags sent to them as a token of my appreciation for your efforts.)

Here is the matchup.

In case you don’t feel like clicking and checking out the nice NFL.com fantasy interface and GameCenter section (I really do like it), my lineup right now is as follows:

• QB Eli Manning (at MIN)
• RB Adrian Peterson (v NYG)
• RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (at CHI)
• WR Mike Wallace (v CIN)
• WR Sidney Rice (v NYG)
• WR Earl Bennett (v NE)
• TE Vernon Davis (v SEA)
• K Dan Capenter (at NYJ)
• D Oakland (at JAX)

Here is what I’m up against. It’s tough:

• QB Michael Vick (at DAL)
• RB Steven Jackson (at NO)
• RB Darren McFadden (at JAX)
• WR Calvin Johnson (v GB)
• WR Marques Colston (v STL)
• WR Deion Branch (at CHI)
• TE Jason Witten (v PHI)
• K Garrett Hartley (v STL)
• D Cleveland (at BUF)

Going matchup-by-matchup off the top of my head, he wins most of them. But as I was reminded Monday night, when I somehow held on for a two point win despite my opponent having five guys playing and needing just 25 points, anything can and does happen. I know this: I’ll leave no stone unturned in my efforts to put the best lineup possible out there this week.

So here are the questions I pose to you, my astute readers. Please vote and then use the comment section to explain yourself.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Thanks for the help everyone! Let’s hope we can do this again next week.

**********

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Lineup Advice…for me! (with a possible prize for you…)

First off, I want to thank everyone who chimed in with their advice for my Week 12 lineup in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League. I know that we’re fairly new, fairly small website, but you all are the best fantasy football readers out there. Your informed and cogent responses were proof of that, and I appreciate the time you took to help me.

Unfortunately, I failed.

As you might have already seen if you read the Week 13 start em, sit em post or the Week 13 waiver wire sleepers post, I lost in Week 12 by a mere three points. The worst part is that the victory was sitting on my bench. I waffled on the Kevin Boss/Vernon Davis decision until kickoff Sunday. I chose Davis, and I paid the price.

So with two weeks left before the playoffs begin, here is how things stand right now in the Procter Division, where I have to finish in the top two to make the playoffs:

1. Fresh 2 Death 9-3 (my week 12 opponent)
2. DayQuil Fighter of the NyQuil 8-4 (has only 942 points on the season
3. Team Gunaxin 6-6 (1,138.12 points)
4. Midwest Sports Fans 6-6 (1,120.16 points)

I am not yet mathematically eliminated, but I’m barely hanging by a thread.

This week I play a 4-8 team that is loaded with Jets, so I’ll have no idea about my chances to win until late Monday night. However, should I win and DayQuil lose, I play Team Gunaxin in Week 14. That would be a must win game, and I’d still need DayQuil to lose for the second straight week, but at least I’d have one part of it in my own hands.

It’s a safe bet that I’ll have more overall points than DayQuil, so that tie-breaker (at least, I assume that’s the tie-breaker, as the league settings page does not say) would go to me.

So, is me making the playoffs likely? No, not all. The slim chances I have remaining to complete my quest for the title and the two Super Bowl tickets could very well end this week.

But hey, a chance is a chance, and I’ll keep fighting and putting the best lineup out there until there are no more games on the schedule.

Okay, so now that you know what we’re dealing with, I need your help with the questions below. And yes, several winners will be chosen for free P&G gift bags, as were several people from last week who I already notified. Make sure you use a valid email address when submitting your comment so I can contact you for your address!

Take note that I’ve made some roster moves since last week. To view my current roster, and to check out the pretty slick NFL.com fantasy football setup, which I’ve greatly enjoyed by the way, click here.

Here is a quick breakdown:

• QBs: Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick
• RBs: Adrian Peterson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Fred Jackson, Mike Goodson, Toby Gerhart
• WRs: Mike Wallace, Sidney Rice, Brandon Marshall, Jason Avant
• TEs: Vernon Davis, Kevin Boss
• K: Dan Carpenter
• D: San Diego

I’m starting Carpenter and the Chargers D (against Oakland) for sure. Here are my questions for you:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

As always, your input is greatly appreciated and I will weigh it heavily when making my final roster calls, as I did last week. Now let’s just hope that I have a reason to write this post again next week!

And one more thing before I go: you know that P&G mobile fantasy game I’ve mentioned a couple of times? It turns out very few people can guess which NFL players will have the longest plays from the line of scrimmage in a given week. My insiders at P&G let me know they’ve had only a small number of winners…which means you have a legitimate chance of winning a trip to the Super Bowl if you can guess some players.

I’ll stop short of saying you’re guaranteed to go to Dallas if you guess 5 correct any given week, but let’s just say it will most likely happen. Check it out on the “Fantasy” tab at www.Facebook.com/TakeItToTheHouse. Picks need to be in one hour before the first game of the week on Thursday.

**********

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Lineup Advice…for me! (with a possible prize for you…)

Friends, I have done my absolute best all season long to provide you with the most accurate fantasy football advice that I possibly can. Already this week I’ve pored over stats and schedules and matchups and trends to give you start/sit advice, waiver wire sleepers, and player rankings for Week 12. This occurs every week, and for the most part I think I’ve steered you in the right direction more often than not.

And all the while I’ve asked for nothing.

Oh sure, I ask for feedback from time to time, but really that’s it. Today, however, that changes. Today, I go to the bank of fantasy football goodwill and make a withdrawal.

I am requesting, actually more like demanding, your help in crowdsourcing my Week 12 lineup in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. You’ve heard me talk about it all season, and now it’s your chance to return the favor I’ve been providing for you…as well as possibly win something in the process!

So here’s the deal: I’m going to pose all my pressing Week 12 questions to you. I cannot promise that I’ll use the crowdsourced picks – after all I’d be a hypocrite if I didn’t take the advice I always give to you, which is to remember that the team is yours and the decision is yours – but I will definitely weigh the opinions and advice I receive heavily. Because honestly, I’m torn on what to do at a few spots.

Those of you who just want to chime in with a poll vote, thank you. I appreciate it. For those who go the extra mile and actually type out the reasoning for their picks, a little something extra is possible.

I just received a new shipment of P&G gift bags (which include a random assortment of all kinds of fun P&G products) and I’m going to select several commenters to receive them (shipping on the house!). The most well thought-out and reasoned responses will be the winners. (Note: make sure you use your accurate email address when you comment so I can contact you if you win.)

Okay, now that we have that out of the way, let’s get down to the nitty gritty.

First off, here are the standings so you can see just how important this week is:

As fate would have it, I am played Fresh to Death this week (coached by the lovely Diana Klockova), in an absolute must-win for me. There are only three weeks left and I am two games behind them and one out of second, which means I’m currently on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

While the team above me (managed by our good friend PUNTE) in the standings is where it is because of blind luck (I’ve scored 200 more points!) I don’t want to have to rely on other people losing for me to make the postseason.

Now here is the matchup with the players currently slotted to start for each team (click to enlarge in a new window):

As you can see, the projection has me losing by damn near 30 points. That’s okay though; I always seem to do the opposite of what the projection says, so that makes me feel good. But I still need to put my best foot forward this week and make sure I leave as few points on the bench as possible.

As for scoring, here are the complete settings. The basics: 4 pts per passing TD and 1 pt for every 25 passing yards; 6 pts per rushing/receiving TD and 1 pt for every 10 yards; no PPR.

So here are the questions I pose to you:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

———-

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

The comment section awaits your reasoning for your picks, which I would greatly appreciate. This is must win folks! Super Bowl tickets are on the line here!

I look forward to your helpful responses.

**********

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

The Impact of Tony Romo’s Injury and a Fantasy Projection for Jon Kitna

As you surely know by now, Tony Romo was injured in Week 7. He fractured his clavicle, and the prognosis as of Monday was that no surgery would be necessary but that he would be out 6-8 weeks. In Romo’s absence, former Seahawk, Bengal, and Lion Jon Kitna will take over as the Cowboys starting QB.

Through the first five games of the season, Romo had thrown for nearly 1,600 yards and 10 TDs. He then added another TD against the Giants before going out. Certainly he was a top-10 fantasy quarterback and a guy that most of his owners were likely counting on to start week in and week out.

What is the impact of his injury? Should you hang onto him? Is Jon Kitna worth picking up? How will this affect the Cowboys receivers? Let’s answers all of these questions and more.

Should you hang onto Tony Romo?

I wouldn’t. In fact, in the one league I have him in, I already have a waiver claim in for Ryan Fitzpatrick with Romo as the player dropped. Here is why:

The best case scenario for Romo’s return is six weeks. That is Week 14 at the absolute earliest. Weeks 15 or 16 are more likely.

Let’s assume the best case scenario: Romo returns in Week 14 and starts. If Romo is ready to play in Week 14, the beginning of the playoffs for many teams, he will be facing the Eagles and then the Redskins, two divisional opponents who know him well. He will also be rusty. Are you telling me you would trust Romo after that long a layoff in the most important weeks of the season? I wouldn’t.

If you hang onto Romo until Week 14, even if he plays well you’ve lost a roster spot for six weeks. This week there are six byes, and we still have two more weeks of byes after that. At this point in the season, holding a roster spot for a guy who won’t play for a minimum of six weeks should be done only in the most luxurious of circumstances. I bet most of you don’t have that luxury.

Besides, even if he comes back in Week 14, why would Dallas play him and risk further injury? They are already 1-5. Chances are good that they’ll be out of playoff contention by Week 14. For them to be in playoff contention, Jon Kitna would have to play out of his mind and lead the Cowboys on a huge winning streak. And in that case, why would they sit Kitna if he has inexplicably led a turnaround?

I don’t think Romo plays another down this year. Even if he does, you don’t want to deal with that kind of uncertainty during the season’s most pivotal weeks.

Drop Romo. Now. And feel good about it.

What kind of value does Jon Kitna have?

Want the quick answer? Between 3/5 and 4/5 of Tony Romo, that’s what I’d say. So that equates to somewhere between 11.6 and 15.8 TD passes through the Cowboys’ final 10 games, based on the rate Romo was on before getting injured. (Trust me, there is serious math behind those projections). Is that spectacular? No. But it’s solid, and it’s very good value for a fantasy backup.

Let’s look quickly at Kitna’s career. What has he done when given the chance to start? (Because, let’s be honest, veterans typically perform close to their established means.) Well, look at Kitna’s career game log. He’ll throw, on average, a little more than a TD per start. Unfortunately, he’ll also throw a little more than an INT per start. For his career, Kitna has thrown 154 TDs and 151 INTs.

Last night, filling in for Romo in mop-up duty against the Giants, Kitna tossed two TDs and no INTs, an auspicious beginning indeed. And there is reason to believe he could succeed as a fantasy QB in Dallas. He’s never had a quartet of pass catchers like Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten. His coordinator, Jason Garrett, loves throwing the ball almost as much as Andy Reid. If Kitna can keep the ball out of the other team’s hands, and even if he can’t, he will rack up yards and TDs. That’s inevitable.

The Cowboys also have at least four very favorable matchups coming up: Jacksonville (Week 8 ), Detroit (Week 11), Washington (Week 15), Arizona (Week 16). Kitna is not a guy I’d want starting every week, but almost half the weeks from here on out, he should be a decent start based on how those four teams have performed against the pass so far in 2010.

My advice: if you own Tony Romo, drop him for Jon Kitna (unless guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne are available). Kitna won’t be able to replicate Romo’s numbers, but he’ll come close enough to warrant a spot on your bench, and possibly even a start every now and then.

How will Jon Kitna starting impact the Cowboys WRs?

First and foremost, Kitna has a rapport with Roy Williams from their days in Detroit. I know that Williams didn’t catch a pass last night, but his best season came with Kitna at QB. Roy is in the middle of a resurgent season in Dallas, and while I don’t think he’ll maintain his current pace, I think 50-75 yards per game and 3-4 TDs from here on out are certainly reasonable. Remember, caught 82 balls for 1,310 yards and 7 TDs from Kitna in 2007. That will have some meaning as Kitna looks to get comfortable in his new role.

If you’re worried about the fact that Williams didn’t catch a pass from Kitna in Week 7, just make sure you don’t overreact about Dez Bryant going crazy. The rookie caught two TDs from Kitna during the fourth quarter, but the game was essentially decided at that point. I would not go thinking that Bryant is immediately the top option for Kitna, but I do think he will start to see more targets. Rookie WRs are inevitably inconsistent, and I expect as much from Bryant, but he will have explosive games like he did in Week 7. He also has bonus value in leagues that count return yards. Look to take advantage of him against weaker defenses (like Jacksonville in Week 8 ) because Kitna clearly will look his way.

As for Miles Austin? Good question. Do you realize he has had three or fewer catches and 0 TDs in three of the last four games? I think his value takes the biggest hit…but just based on his recent ascent to the top of the WR stratosphere. He’s a good player, and I’m sure Kitna will get him involved, but he’s no longer a weekly top-10 option. If someone will pay for him as such in a trade, do it. Just make sure you don’t give him away.

Finally, I think Jason Witten’s value takes a slight hit but nothing major. Witten is not a guy who scores a lot of touchdowns. Rather, he is usually good for 6-8 catches and about 10 yards a catch. He and Tony Romo are friends and have played together as long as Romo has been the starter. Kitna won’t have that same rapport with Witten. Still, a good pass catching tight end is a quarterback’s best friend. With the Cowboys still having O-Line problems, Kitna will keep Witten involved, but may at 85-90% of the clip Romo did.

To see where I have Kitna and the Cowboys’ WRs ranked, check out my Week 8 player rankings.

Fantasy Impact of Randy Moss Trade to Minnesota

Randy Moss will reportedly be traded from the New England Patriots to the Minnesota Vikings for a 3rd round draft choice. Barring something unforeseen (according to Jay Glazer of FOX Sports) the deal will get done today.

Over at MSF we’ve already analyzed the real football side of this deal, with Kurt explaining why a Moss trade was inevitable and Drew explaining how excited Minnesota fans are to have their former hero back.

Now it’s my turn to dissect this trade from a fantasy standpoint. I’ll go player-by-player and analyze how this deal affects their value.

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…Randy Moss

Moss’ three TDs so far this year – and the spectacular one-handed grab over Darrelle Revis – mask the fact that his production is way down. He only has 9 catches through four games and was targeted a mere four times over the past two weeks. Yet, every analyst you hear says Moss still has the majority of his speed, and obviously he has one of the best sets of hands in NFL history.

So what’s up? Well, we’ve seen in the past that Moss’ production suffers when he is not properly motivated. His infamous post game rant after the Patriots’ Week 1 victory showed us that Moss was frustrated about his contract. Four weeks later he caught no passes on Monday Night Football…which used to be known as Moss Night Football because he always stepped up in primetime.

It sounds to me like Moss needs a change of scenery, and the Patriots must agree to give up one of the best receivers in NFL history during a season in which they have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

So the impact of this deal to Minnesota is overwhelmingly positive for Moss. He has always wanted to play with Brett Favre, he always seems to do well at the beginning of a new tenure, and he will be sufficiently motivated to play for a new contract. Would anyone be surprised if Moss is the best receiver in football again from here on out? No, no one would be. It remains to be seen if that will happen, but the fact that it could reasonably happen says all you need to know about the potential impact of this trade on Moss’ fantasy value.

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…Brett Favre

Do you really need me to analyze this?

The Vikings’ offense has been stagnant all year because a) Sidney Rice is hurt and the Vikings lack a deep threat; and b) Brett Favre has looked old and, at times, disinterested. Adding Randy Moss, who Favre has pined for since his Green Bay days, solves both of those problems.

Favre’s age and the potential for injury still worries me, but his fantasy value immediately jumps with this move. Now we’ll just have to see how it plays out to see how high Favre’s value goes. But the impact of this deal is clearly positive.

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…Tom Brady

Tom Brady has thrown 9 TD passes so far this year, 33% of which have gone to Moss. Even though Moss has not been catching as many balls this year, his presence on the outside opens things up inside for guys like Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. Without Moss to account for, teams will have a much easier take collapsing their defense to take away the middle.

So on the surface, this deal would appear to be a negative for Brady and the Patriots.

But…

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…Vincent Jackson

I’ve heard more than one person today say that this deal opens up the possibility of the Patriots trading for suspended Chargers’ WR Vincent Jackson. The Patriots now have multiple picks in the first three rounds of next year’s draft, and getting multiple first day picks is apparently the asking price for Jackson.

Now, I’ve seen nothing yet to suggest that a deal is in place, but it makes too much sense. Jackson and the Chargers’ front office appear to have burned the bridge that would ever bring them back together, and there is now a legitimate need for the Patriots. Many people thought the Chargers were holding out dealing Jackson (they have until 10/19) to see if a #1 WR got injured, thus increasing Jackson’s value. No one got hurt, but the Patriots losing Moss creates a huge void on a Super Bowl contending team, which would make dealing those draft picks much easier to swallow.

So…IF Jackson gets traded to the Patriots, his value clearly skyrockets because there is still a chance he doesn’t play at all in 2010 if he stays in San Diego. Such a deal would also help to soften the blow for Brady, who would then have a legit deep threat to mimic Moss’ influence.

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…Adrian Peterson

Assuming the Vikings continue to get AD 18-22 carries (which I think they will), this trade helps Peterson. He’s had to do it all this year, and even the great Peterson will wear down at some point. Having Moss not only opens up the box and stretches the field, it means the possibility for more red zone chances exists now with the Vikings offense.

If you’re a Peterson owner, get excited. The addition of Moss could mean less yards simply by virtue of a few less carries, but he’ll score more TDs and have more value overall.

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin

Getting Moss obviously means that he’ll get targets, and there are only so many to go around. But as we saw in New England, Moss’ presence has a tremendous impact on the entire offense…most of it positive.

Adding Moss would increase Harvin’s value, I think. Harvin is not a deep threat, at least that’s not his specialty. Harvin’s strength is getting the ball in space within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage and then making people miss. He’s simply not a precise enough route runner to consistently beat outside coverage, which we’ve seen this season. Where he excels is in a Welker-type role where he can use his supreme athleticism with the ball in his hands.

It’s hard to say what the deal would do for Sidney Rice. First of all, he hasn’t played yet, so there is the uncertainty of how quickly he gets back to full speed. Plus, Rice was Favre’s go-to deep receiver last year, which is why he caught so many touchdowns. You’d have to think the presence of Moss would take some of those deep targets away. On the other hand, Moss’ presence would mean more single coverage for Rice. This is probably a wash. We’ll need to see how it plays out to make an accurate prediction.

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez

This depends. Do they get Vincent Jackson or not? I can’t imagine Welker will find the going as easy without Moss to stretch the defense. He’ll still be PPR gold, and it’s possible he could see more red zone targets, but the loss of Moss – without an adequate replacement – will negatively impact everyone on the Patriots’ offense.

This includes Aaron Hernandez. The rookie has done a great job of working the deep middle so far this year for the Pats. Without Moss, defenses will be able to focus more on stopping him. The one positive could be that Hernandez will see more red zone targets, but the Patriots’ opportunities in the red zone could also be diminished.

Ultimately, the value for neither of these guys drops too much, but it has to drop a little because of the focus opposing defenses were forced to dedicate to Moss.

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…Brandon Tate

Except for Brandon Tate.

With Moss gone, Tate becomes the most likely player to slide into the starting role. He has 11 catches for 135 yards so far this season, which is nothing to write home about, but he also adds value as a special teams player, having returned two kicks for touchdowns.

In the pre-Moss era in New England, Brady was notorious for spreading the ball around. Patriots receivers were rarely worth owning because you never knew who would have a good week. Though Tate becomes the de facto starter, I’m not sure it increases his value all that much because, well, these are the Patriots.

Fantasy Impact of Moss Trade on…BenJarvus Green-Ellis

He has two straight solid games with a TD, so owners are starting to feel more comfortable starting the no-name (or many name) running back. Without Moss, you’d have to think the 16 carries that Green-Ellis has gotten the last two weeks will continue, if not increase.

Still, this is New England. What happens when Fred Taylor’s healthy? Will Danny Woodhead get more carries? Will Sammy Morris? You just never know. So proceed with caution when it comes to Green-Ellis, especially considering the loss of Moss could decrease his opportunity to goalline carries.

Whew.

Who’d I miss? Ask in the comment section and I’ll do my best to asses.

Draft Strategy Advice: Don’t F Yourself on Draft Day

Every year I see people do it. Hell, I’ve even done it myself.

However, I have learned from my draft day mistakes, and in the last 4 years I have been able to win once and finish second three times. (Of course, now that I stated that in a public forum I will probably finish last this year…)

Today, I want to show you how you should approach your fantasy football draft, and I’ll do so by using an analogy that all guys can relate to: I’ll compare fantasy football draft strategy to a night out trolling the bars for ladies.

Pre-Drinking

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Preparation

Think of this like drinking before you get to the bar to help you save money on your tab (which in my experience didn’t really save any money…it just caused me to black out earlier.) You need to do some research, and this isn’t as hard as you think. Just find a few draft ranking sheets.  They are everywhere, compare them, and find one that you most closely agree with.

The next step is to check for injuries and suspensions, and then consider a few things and rank accordingly:

• Is this a good player on a horrible team?
• Is this a great WR with a horrible QB?
• Does this team have any good complimentary players?

These are all reasons to discount players. For example, if JaMarcus Russell was the starting QB for the Colts it would have a severely negative impact on the receiving core of that team, because even Reggie Wayne couldn’t catch enough balls from a no talent ass clown like Russell to be a #1 WR.

First Round of Drinks

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Round 1

When you walk up to the bar to get your first round of drinks, there are ladies everywhere and you haven’t F-ed up your chances with any of them yet. This is just like the first round of the draft, as all the badass players are available and you’re assured to get one of them.

As the rounds of the draft progress, of course, the talent slowly dwindles and drops off. This is the same concept as the more rounds of shots you take, the worse your chances of impressing a lady are. Apparently slurring “You wanna come home with me?” isn’t what they want to hear. Who knew?

Middle Rounds of Drinks

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: After Round 4

This is the point in the draft when all of the research you did before the draft will pay off. By knowing which players are actually starting and the caliber of complimentary players around them, you will be able to find guys who are being overlooked, guys like WR Marques Colston and WR Wes Welker, who both havegreat QBs throwing to them.

Also make sure to check injury updates as the rounds get later because drafting a player who is injured for the season is comparable to making out with a tranny…and that’s f-ing gross!!

Later Stages of the Night

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Final Rounds

Hopefully you haven’t blown your load and picked a kicker already. The difference between the best kicker and the 10th best kicker last year was 36 points, which averages out to just over 2 points per week. A kicker is not going to win you a championship. QBs, WRs, and RBs are.

The same thing can be said about Defenses. The difference between the best and 10th best was 55 points, which is between 3 to 4 points per game.

Last Call

A word about Rookies and players from your favorite team

You don’t get points for drafting players from your favorite team, so rank them honestly and if your league is local let someone else be the jackass that makes a homer pick prematurely.

Rookies are like a cock tease: they look really good, however it is often the case that they don’ t put out. Occasionally a rookie will surprise us and have a strong fantasy season, but more often than not – to finish the “not putting out” metaphor – rookies will leave you with blue balls.

You’re better off going for the chubby chick who is still hanging out by herself at closing time. This would be equitable to picking up a veteran starting WR like Jabar Gaffney in the final rounds. He isn’t sexy or exciting, but you know that he’ll put up some fantasy points when needed.

4 Reasons Jerome Harrison is Being Undervalued

Last year, Jerome Harrison entered fantasy football lore with one of the most unexpectedly productive final months we’ve ever seen. Over the season’s final three games, Harrison logged 286, 148, and 127 yards. He added five touchdowns for good measure.

More than a few playoff matchups were decided because of a player that few people (other than me, of course) had on their radar screen before the season began.

But as we get closer to the start of the 2010 season, I get the sense that people are becoming increasingly wary of Harrison. Much of this feeling comes from the fact that I’ve drafted Jerome Harrison in the 8th and 9th rounds in my last two drafts, and I feel he’s at least 2-3 rounds more valuable than that this year…with the potential to be even more valuable than that.

In this post, I’ll give you a few of the reasons why I am not nearly as worried about Jerome as so many others seem to be.

1. Harrison has always been productive when given a chance

As I mentioned last year, even dating back to his college days at Washington State the one constant about Jerome Harrison has been that he always produces when given consistent carries:

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5′9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16.

And when you look at his NFL career, the same holds true.

Just look at last season. In the four games in which the Browns gave Harrison 20+ carries, he was outstanding. Heading into 2010, Harrison is slated to have many more than four such games this year.

His career numbers, spread out over four seasons and 47 games, are: 271 carries, 1,310 yards, 6 TDs, 57 receptions, 402 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs. Take that as a stand-alone season and it’s top 10-15 RB material, which is exactly what I think Harrison has the potential to be this season.

Now, I don’t think he’ll grab 57 passes, so that projection is a bit much, but 250+ carries and 1200+ yards is not at all unreasonable, especially with the Browns’ being forced to focus on the run with INT-machine Jake Delhomme at QB and no standout WRs to speak of.

So you should trust that Harrison will produce if given carries. The question then becomes, is there someone on the Browns’ roster who could pilfer carries away from Harrison? Yes, but…

2. Montario Hardesty is very talented…but can’t stay healthy

The biggest knock on Harrison’s 2010 fantasy value has been the presence of Browns’ 2nd round draft choice Montario Hardesty. The rookie was very productive when healthy during his career at the University of Tennessee, with the key phrase there being when healthy.

Hardesty has already had multiple operations on his knee and only had one season at Tennessee in which he carried the ball more than 107 times. Much of that was due to the injury issues.

And guess what? Hardesty has already dealt with injury issues during the preseason and just got hurt again in the Browns’ most recent preseason game. While he may still prove to be a productive part of the Browns backfield in 2010, it is difficult, based on his history, to put much faith in Hardesty stealing consistent carries away from Harrison.

3. James Davis and Peyton Hillis are nothing special

As for 2009 rookie James Davis and Peyton Hillis, neither has shown the ability to be as productive an every down back as Harrison; and certainly neither possesses Harrison’s explosiveness or big play ability.

Hillis, however, will probably vulture some goalline TDs away from Harrison. That sucks, but it is what it is. Most of Harrison’s touchdowns come from outside the 5-10 yard lines anyway though, so this isn’t that big of a concern.

4. The Browns have a very underrated offensive line

No, the Browns’ offense was not very good last year, but it wasn’t the fault of the offensive line. Anchored by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas, the Browns consistently opened up holes for running backs and protected their quarterbacks. The problem? Ancient Jamal Lewis was too slow to hit the hole and neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson was able to play at a competent level with very, very little talent to throw to on the outside.

But, as mentioned above, Harrison proved that a productive running back with young, fresh legs can thrive behind the Browns’ current O-line. What he did over the last three weeks of the season showed that this unit can be a good run blocking line, and I expect that to continue into 2010.

Conclusion

Will Jerome Harrison produce like he did against Kansas City in Week 15 (286 yards, 3 TDs) every week? Of course not. In fact, expecting his Week 15-17 production extrapolated over a full season is foolish. The Browns played Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland, none of whom were especially strong against the run.

But, Jerome Harrison certainly has value as a #2 running back. You’re probably better off if you can pencil him as your #3 RB or flex player, but I think he finishes the season in the top 20.

To give you some comparisons: Harrison is more proven than Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, and CJ Spiller; he’ll get more opportunities than Marion Barber and Ricky Williams; and he’s less of an injury risk, based on his history, than Ronnie Brown or Joseph Addai (who is already dealing with a concussion). Yet, in most drafts, Harrison is going behind all of these guys. I’m not sure I’d do it in every situation, but a strong case could be made for taking Harrison about them all.

Certainly, Harrison is more valuable than the 8th-9th round where I’ve been getting him. Based on where he’s typically available, I’d start targeting Harrison in Round 7. And when you get him, either in that round or a round or two later, just know that you’re setting yourself up to get a guy who, based on his historical production and expected role, very well could produce Round 4-5 value.

*********

* – Jerome Harrison photo source: Fantasy Knuckleheads