Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down: Justin Forsett, Tony Romo, and more

Stock up/stock down…it’s a fantasy sports article idea almost as old as the Prodigy internet service (which, by the way, served as my introduction to fantasy baseball a looooong time ago). What it may lack in originality though, it more than makes up for usefulness and accessibility.

That’s why I’m going to make it a staple of our weekly fantasy football coverage here at MSF Fantasy Sports.

This morning, in the first edition of Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down, I’ll run through a list of players whose stock is either rising or falling in my eyes due to a change in workload, injury concerns, matchups, or just a shift in my general trust level with them.

Remember: your fantasy football team is a lot like a relationship. (Huh?) If you don’t trust your significant other, it will lead to instability and turmoil in your relationship. If you don’t trust your starters and your bench players, instability and turmoil will similarly plague your fantasy football team.

And yes, I just went there for a comparison.

Who cares. Let’s talk names.

Stock WAY Up; Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle

In Saturday’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I told you that the Seattle backfield was one to keep an eye on. If you paid heed to my advice, you now know that Forsett has since been named the starter.

Why is this important? There were four games last year in which Forsett got 10 or more carries. Look at his output in those four games:

• 17 carries, 123 yards, TD
• 22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD
• 14 carries, 70 yards
• 10 carries, 74 yards

Let’s call him the NFC version of Jerome Harrison.

Some guys just produce every time they get an opportunity. Forsett, like Harrison, has proven to be one of those guys. In PPR leagues, he is a bona fide #2 back right now (he had 41 catches for 350 yards last year). In standard leagues he is a great flex option and a definite #3 RB who has the potential to become a #2, a la Harrison last year.

If Forsett is somehow available in your league, stop reading this post RIGHT NOW and go pick him up. He has a tough matchup in Week 1 against San Francisco, but he’ll still do enough to bring value. Get him in your lineup.

Stock Down: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

I live in Dallas, so you have to take this one with the caveat that my judgment could be clouded by listening to all of the nattering nabobs of negativity who break down the Cowboys on the radio. Still, I think there are concerns that Romo can live up to the preseason hype that has him lumped in with other 2nd tier QBs like Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady.

Among my reasons for concern:

• I don’t fully trust that Miles Austin is a #1 receiver
• I certainly don’t trust Romo’s 2nd and 3rd options yet, which are rookie Dez Bryant and veteran suckfest Roy Williams.
• I don’t trust that the Cowboys running game will be a consistent force until Tashard Choice is featured more, and who knows when that will be.
• The Cowboys have serious offensive line issues.

Now look, I’m not saying drop Romo. I’m not even saying don’t start him if your backup is, say, Matthew Stafford. This is a guy who has three straight years of a QB rating of 91.4 or better, and whose TD production is 36-26-26 over that span. Romo will have a good season.

But…I kept him in one league thinking there was a chance Romo could have a great season, and that he might even be able to challenge for upper tier status this year. He still could, but I also think that enough warning signs accumulated during training camp that suggest Romo could struggle, especially early.

Stock Up: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore

Want a name of a QB who was drafted below Romo in most drafts but could exceed him in value? Try Joe Flacco, who had the productive TJ Houshmandzadeh added to a stable of receivers that already included Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason.

What this trio lacks in youth they more than make up for in veteran savvy, hands, and reliability. They aren’t going to beat you deep, but they will provide option after option for Flacco in the red zone. That’s a very good thing.

Stock Down: Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona

Having watched Derek Anderson play for three years in Cleveland, I know what he is and what he is not. Anderson has a rocket arm and is a guy who will take chances downfield, especially to his #1 target. This means Larry Fitzgerald owners can exhale a bit. Anderson is not, however, a patient nor accurate quarterback, which means that Steve Breaston and Early Doucet could suffer.

Stock Down: Randy Moss, WR, New England; Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami; Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo

This one is simple: Darrelle Revis is back. We know what he did to #1 receivers last year and it wasn’t pretty.

These three guys have to face Revis twice in 2010. While they all should be solid plays in their other 14 matchups (except for Evans, whose production will be up and down with his QB) the presence of Revis means you at least have to think about sitting them during their two Jets weeks.

With Moss and Marshall, two of the best receivers in the game, you probably don’t ever sit them, but their stock does take a bit of a hit because we can now expect lesser numbers in two of their games this year.

Stock Up: Patrick Crayton, WR, San Diego

He was lost in the shuffle in Dallas so nothing was better for him than being shipped out of town. The bonus is that he went to a WR-starved team with a very good QB who will be able to take advantage of Crayton’s skills, which are his precise route-running and reliable hands.

As our buddy Kurt from PFI pointed out, Crayton is just a few years removed from a 1,000-yard season when he was the #2 receiver in Dallas. He’ll be the #2 in San Diego and could post similar numbers this year.