Tip of the Day: Hit the Waiver Wire for WR Mark Clayton

Looking to bolster your receiving corps before Week 2? There are plenty of hot names swirling around after Week 1.

Brandon Lloyd stepped up big in Denver, both of the Mike Williamses (in Tampa Bay and Seattle) had strong opening week showings, and guys like Mike Thomas (JAC) and Danny Amendola (STL) had more targets and catches than anyone expected.

But it is one of Amendola’s teammates that I like better than them all: Mark Clayton.

Let’s count out some reasons:

1. St. Louis lost Sam Bradford’s erstwhile #1 target Donnie Avery in the preseason. The Rams essentially had a rudderless WR corps headed into Week 1. 10+ catches for 100+ yards in Week 1 is a good way to stake a claim for the #1 spot.

2. Clayton was a first round pick in the 2005 draft. While that may not mean a whole lot, it does mean that he has talent, which is perhaps more than we can say about any other WR on the Rams roster.

3. Clayton went to Oklahoma. Bradford went to Oklahoma. That can’t hurt. (Their times in Norman, however, did not overlap. So it isn’t like they’ve played together before.)

4. Sometimes guys just need changes of scenery. Clayton appeared to be on the verge of blossoming after his second year in the league with Baltimore. That season he had 67 catches, 939 yards, and 5 TDs. In the 3 seasons and 1 game since, he’s caught a total of 5 TDs. He has spent his entire career with Baltimore so perhaps he just didn’t click with Joe Flacco or the coaching staff there. Either way, sometimes a change can do a talented athlete good.

5. Most importantly, St. Louis is going to be down a lot this year and needing to throw to come back. If Week 1 is any indication, the Rams will not be bashful about letting their young QB air it out.

6. The Rams have five more games against divisional opponents. Neither the Cardinals nor the Seahawks nor the 49ers have an above average secondary.

Add it all up and Clayton is the one surprise WR from Week 1 that I’m buying. I’ve already placed waiver claims for him in a number of my leagues, so I’m following my own advice too.

See if Mark Clayton is out there on your waiver wire. He could be a solid #4/5 WR who can fill in for an injured starter or during the bye weeks in a pinch. And if he and Bradford develop a consistent rapport, he could prove to be even more valuable.

Mark Clayton fantasy projection: Weeks 2 and 3 could be less fruitful for Clayton with Oakland and Washington on the schedule, but the rest of the Rams’ 2010 schedule is littered with favorable matchups.

Why couldn’t Clayton catch 75-80 passes for 1,000+ yards? We need to see a few more weeks before I’ll totally buy into that projection, but I think Clayton’s ceiling is higher than the other WRs on the waiver wire right now.

So grab him, improve your depth, and hope for a late career breakout from Clayton.

Fantasy Football Tip of the Day: Don’t be scared about Jamaal Charles

I’ve heard a lot of grumbling about whether or not Jamaal Charles is really a stud fantasy RB in 2010 because he now must compete with Thomas Jones for touches. Heck, I’ve even wondered about it myself.

This morning, I’m here to tell you to stop the grumbling.

First of all, consider that Charles was already a stud last year and he only had 190 carries. It’s what he did with those 190 carries that matters, and Charles certainly made the most of them, finishing the season with 1,120 yards (a sterling 5.9 yard average) and 7 TDs. He also – importantly – tacked on 40 receptions for an additional 297 yards and another TD.

So that’s 1,400+ total yards and 8 TDs. By way of comparison, DeAngelo Williams had about 1,375 total yards and 7 TDs last year with almost 3o more carries.

And remember, Charles didn’t even start getting consistent touches until Week 10. Before that game against Oakland, Charles had not carried the ball more than six times in a single game. From Week 10 on, he never carried it less than 14 times and finished the season with 20, 25, 24, and 25 carries in consecutive weeks. That, of course, is when he exploded.

If you take Charles’ Week 10-17 performance and extrapolate it over an entire season, you’d get 1,936 yards on 322 carries…which is just ridiculous production. But that’s how good Charles was during the season’s second half last year. No one really expects Charles to get that many touches, especially with Jones in the picture, but he certainly will remain a featured part of the Chiefs’ offense.

Let’s say that Charles carries the ball 17 times per game, a reasonable and conservative estimate. His career average is 5.7 yards per carry, which he almost certainly will not maintain, but let’s say he averages a modest 4.5. That’s still 1,224 yards. If he tacks on another 40-50 receptions, which he almost certainly will, that’s another 300-400 yards. Assuming he gets 8-10 touchdowns, another modest assumption, you’re talking about a back who eclipses 1,500 yards and with 8-10 TDs.

That’s easily 2nd round material at a position as tough and competitive as running back – and it’s worst-case-scenario type stuff. Based on what we saw last year, Charles has the talent to get 1,500+ rushing yards even without toting the rock 300 times.

I know that people are worried Thomas Jones will steal some of Charles’ thunder this year, but I would not be overly concerned about it. While Jones was monstrous in his own right last year, he is 32 years old and approaching the inevitable running back cliff. At this point in his career, he is best served by accepting a reduced role and excelling in it, especially coming off of a 331-carry season.

The Chiefs will be better on offense this year than people think (Charlie Weis baby!), and I believe there will be plenty of scoring opportunities for Charles to be a solid #2 RB or even a #1 guy if you go QB or WR in Round 1. I also think Jones will have some flex value getting 10-12 touches per game and the occasional score.

But do not – I repeat do not - downgrade Jamaal Charles because Thomas Jones is around.

In fact, consider this: the knock on Charles has always been his size, leading to people questioning whether or not he can take a pounding. Well, having Jones around means Charles won’t have to carry 300+ times, which should theoretically keep him fresher and mitigate the risk of injury. A reasonable argument could be made that the presence of Jones actually increases Charles’ value. It’s counter-intuitive, I know. But you don’t win fantasy leagues by just following the herd of groupthink all the time.

Final thought: Teams know that they need two competent RBs in this day and age, but the fresher, more talented legs almost always win out. Jamaal Charles clearly has both, and he is in line to pick up right where he left off in 2009.