The Dog that did it All

An interesting graph has been circulating across the internet showing the “parity” of the NFL, and was credited to a mysterious “DanChan22″. It blew up on the internet last week, and has since been featured on Yahoo! Sports, Deadspin, and The Washington Post. Something about this graph struck a chord within my head and I knew I had to track him down and find out more. I finally found him on an internet message board and asked if he would be willing to answer a few questions, and he kindly agreed. His answers were quite shocking – This is his story.

The interview started off great. We exchanged pleasantries, and got all the formalities out of the way very quickly. I then proceeded to ask him a few questions regarding the nature of his graph and what gave him the idea. It was obvious he was holding something back. I just couldn’t shake the feeling that there was something more grand at work here. Finally he caved and revealed the truth. He had help. Help from his dog, Abagnale.

“He is the one with the gift. I think I’m just helping him realize it.”

Abagnale, or Abby as he is called by friends, is a fourteen year old Italian greyhound. A good dog, and friend by most account; but just a dog. That was of course until recently. The idea to make the NFL graph came into Daniels mind one day as an idea, maybe in a dream; but he found himself struggling to put it all together. He had an idea to print out all of the team names on cards to make it easier to organize, but this is where out story takes an unusual turn.

Daniel had the cards laid out on the floor and Abagnale started to sniff a particular one. At first Daniel just figured it was a dog being a dog, but quickly he realized that the card Abagnale picked fit in perfectly. So together the two of them worked on this project using that method for six hours a night for two weeks straight until it finally came together.
 

“I believe that all dogs go to heaven, and he must be close. So the lord in the sky is giving him (and me) one last gift.”

 
It’s hard to say exactly what gave Abagnale this ability all of a sudden, but Daniel thinks it’s one last gift that he and his friend may share together. It’s a sad realization that there comes a time when your best friend may pass on, but when you are able to spend time together in a way that seems magical it might soften the blow. Maybe that is what Abagnale is trying to pass along before he goes to Daniel; and Daniel to us.

” I think the NFL graph is really a metaphor for our lives as humans. We live in a circular world, and if we can just realize that there is a much parity in the human condition that there is in the NFL, we would all do a lot better. “

 
- Ryan Trowse

My list of the top-10 defenses for the fantasy playoffs broken down by each team’s schedule for weeks 14-17. Every team’s overall performance for weeks 1-10 was cross-referenced with their performances during weeks 6-10 to see how teams have changed throughout the season.

The overall ability of each defense, and how many fantasy-points teams give away to opposing defenses was taken into account.

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Key:

Green = Good

Orange = Bad

Red = Ugly

The numbers beside each team represent how favorable of a match-up I view it to be. (1 = Good, 10=Ugly)

1. Eagles – 14, 15, 16, 17

2. Redskins – 14, 15, 16, 17

3. Cardinals – 14, 15, 16, 17

4. Packers – 14, 15, 16, 17

5. Steelers – 14, 15, 16, 17

6. Cowboys – 14, 15, 16, 17

7. Giants – 14, 15, 16, 17

8. Bucs – 14, 15, 16, 17

9. Seahawks – 14, 15, 16, 17

10. Bears – 14, 15, 16, 17

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- Ryan Trowse

It’s week 10. The Raiders, Chargers, Packers, and the Saints are off this week. That’s a lot of talented players that won’t be on your starting lineup this week. So, if you need a RB; here is my sleeper of the week…

Mike Goodson (RB) – Panthers

Darin Gantt of the Charlotte Observer reported earlier this week that Mike Goodson is named the starting RB of the Panthers this week against the Buccaneers.

The Carolina RBs have been disappointing at best this season; but Goodson is getting his start at the perfect time against the Bucs. The Bucs are currently ranked #30 in rushing defense, and Goodson says, “People don’t know what I’ve got,” … “I can’t wait to show them.”[Scott Fowler].

So should you take a chance on Goodson? Yes! Show me another promising RB this week who is starting against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL, and is available in most leagues.

He is starting.
He is playing against a terrible defense.
He is excited to finally get a chance.
He has amazing breakaway speed. (I am serious check this out.)[NFL.com]
He is available.
Why not? (Let me know.)

The Texans struggled against the Redskins, much the same as the Cowboys did however they were able to win the game in overtime. The Cowboys haven’t been blown out, they have lost two close games because of costly mistakes. Is this the week they can redeem themselves? I’m not sure, but tune into FOX at noon on Sunday to find out. The announcers for the Fox TV Channel will be Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Injury & Game information below.

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Preview | TV Channel – TV Announcers – Odds – Spreads

• Cowboys at Texans Day/Date: Sunday – September 26th 2010
• Cowboys at Texans Location: Reliant Stadium – Houston, TX
• Cowboys at Texans TV Kickoff: 12:00 Noon (Central Time)
• Cowboys at Texans TV Channel: FOX
• Cowboys at Texans TV Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
• Cowboys at Texans Odds / Spread: Texans -3 / 47

Houston Texans – 2010 Season

• Week 1: Impressive home win over the Colts
• Week 2: Overtime win over the Redskins in Washington

Houston Texans Key Injuries

• WR | Andre Johnson – Did Not Practice
• TE | Owen Daniels – Limited
• DT | Amobi Okoye – Limited
• DE | Mario Williams – Limited

Dallas Cowboys – 2010 Season

• Week 1: Disappointing loss in Washington to the Redskins
• Week 2: Disappointing loss to the Bears at Cowboys Stadium

Dallas Cowboys Key Injuries

• Dez Bryant – Did Not Practice
• Jason Witten – Limited
• Mike Jenkins – Limited
• Jay Ratliff – Did Not Practice (Family Matter)

Image Source: gapcache.lingospot.com

Stock up/stock down…it’s a fantasy sports article idea almost as old as the Prodigy internet service (which, by the way, served as my introduction to fantasy baseball a looooong time ago). What it may lack in originality though, it more than makes up for usefulness and accessibility.

That’s why I’m going to make it a staple of our weekly fantasy football coverage here at MSF Fantasy Sports.

This morning, in the first edition of Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down, I’ll run through a list of players whose stock is either rising or falling in my eyes due to a change in workload, injury concerns, matchups, or just a shift in my general trust level with them.

Remember: your fantasy football team is a lot like a relationship. (Huh?) If you don’t trust your significant other, it will lead to instability and turmoil in your relationship. If you don’t trust your starters and your bench players, instability and turmoil will similarly plague your fantasy football team.

And yes, I just went there for a comparison.

Who cares. Let’s talk names.

Stock WAY Up; Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle

In Saturday’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I told you that the Seattle backfield was one to keep an eye on. If you paid heed to my advice, you now know that Forsett has since been named the starter.

Why is this important? There were four games last year in which Forsett got 10 or more carries. Look at his output in those four games:

• 17 carries, 123 yards, TD
• 22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD
• 14 carries, 70 yards
• 10 carries, 74 yards

Let’s call him the NFC version of Jerome Harrison.

Some guys just produce every time they get an opportunity. Forsett, like Harrison, has proven to be one of those guys. In PPR leagues, he is a bona fide #2 back right now (he had 41 catches for 350 yards last year). In standard leagues he is a great flex option and a definite #3 RB who has the potential to become a #2, a la Harrison last year.

If Forsett is somehow available in your league, stop reading this post RIGHT NOW and go pick him up. He has a tough matchup in Week 1 against San Francisco, but he’ll still do enough to bring value. Get him in your lineup.

Stock Down: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

I live in Dallas, so you have to take this one with the caveat that my judgment could be clouded by listening to all of the nattering nabobs of negativity who break down the Cowboys on the radio. Still, I think there are concerns that Romo can live up to the preseason hype that has him lumped in with other 2nd tier QBs like Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady.

Among my reasons for concern:

• I don’t fully trust that Miles Austin is a #1 receiver
• I certainly don’t trust Romo’s 2nd and 3rd options yet, which are rookie Dez Bryant and veteran suckfest Roy Williams.
• I don’t trust that the Cowboys running game will be a consistent force until Tashard Choice is featured more, and who knows when that will be.
• The Cowboys have serious offensive line issues.

Now look, I’m not saying drop Romo. I’m not even saying don’t start him if your backup is, say, Matthew Stafford. This is a guy who has three straight years of a QB rating of 91.4 or better, and whose TD production is 36-26-26 over that span. Romo will have a good season.

But…I kept him in one league thinking there was a chance Romo could have a great season, and that he might even be able to challenge for upper tier status this year. He still could, but I also think that enough warning signs accumulated during training camp that suggest Romo could struggle, especially early.

Stock Up: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore

Want a name of a QB who was drafted below Romo in most drafts but could exceed him in value? Try Joe Flacco, who had the productive TJ Houshmandzadeh added to a stable of receivers that already included Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason.

What this trio lacks in youth they more than make up for in veteran savvy, hands, and reliability. They aren’t going to beat you deep, but they will provide option after option for Flacco in the red zone. That’s a very good thing.

Stock Down: Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona

Having watched Derek Anderson play for three years in Cleveland, I know what he is and what he is not. Anderson has a rocket arm and is a guy who will take chances downfield, especially to his #1 target. This means Larry Fitzgerald owners can exhale a bit. Anderson is not, however, a patient nor accurate quarterback, which means that Steve Breaston and Early Doucet could suffer.

Stock Down: Randy Moss, WR, New England; Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami; Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo

This one is simple: Darrelle Revis is back. We know what he did to #1 receivers last year and it wasn’t pretty.

These three guys have to face Revis twice in 2010. While they all should be solid plays in their other 14 matchups (except for Evans, whose production will be up and down with his QB) the presence of Revis means you at least have to think about sitting them during their two Jets weeks.

With Moss and Marshall, two of the best receivers in the game, you probably don’t ever sit them, but their stock does take a bit of a hit because we can now expect lesser numbers in two of their games this year.

Stock Up: Patrick Crayton, WR, San Diego

He was lost in the shuffle in Dallas so nothing was better for him than being shipped out of town. The bonus is that he went to a WR-starved team with a very good QB who will be able to take advantage of Crayton’s skills, which are his precise route-running and reliable hands.

As our buddy Kurt from PFI pointed out, Crayton is just a few years removed from a 1,000-yard season when he was the #2 receiver in Dallas. He’ll be the #2 in San Diego and could post similar numbers this year.

Week 1 may seem too early to be reading articles on the waiver wire and to be looking for potential steals and sleepers. I mean, no actual games have been played yet, right?

This is true if you are looking at your fantasy football season on a week-to-week basis and not over the long haul of an entire season.

ProFootballinsight takes a look at a few players heading into Week 1 who can contribute on your roster all season long.

Waiver Wire Steal: Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Did everyone forget what Chris Chambers accomplished last season after joining the Kansas City Chiefs? Chambers filled in nicely for Dwayne Bowe (as he served a four game suspension) by posting stats similar to his more youthful years.

In only 9 games last season, Chris reeled in 36 receptions for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns.  With a full 16 games, at that pace Chambers would have eclipsed 1,000 yards with ease.

Chambers still currently holds a starting WR spot with the Chiefs, and the addition of Dexter McCluster will only make the Chiefs’ offense more explosive, which in turn will free up Chambers from drawing top defensive back coverage.

The fact that he is heading into his second year with the teams and had his first offseason with Matt Cassel will only add to Chambers’ value, both in fantasy and real life, as he and the KC offense become more familiar with eachother.

Chris Chambers showed last year that he can clearly carry the Chiefs’ passing game from the receiving aspect.  In case you were wondering, Chambers is available on the waiver wire in nearly 90% of all fantasy leagues.

I look for Chambers to contribute on a regular basis in 2010.

Waiver Wire Steal: Patrick Crayton, WR, San Diego Chargers

Patrick Crayton is a name that was buried near the bottom of the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver depth chart only a few days ago.  There was no mention of Crayton as a player who could contribute in any way, shape, or form to a fantasy team on any level, or to the Cowboys for that matter.

It is amazing what a few days and a new location can do for your fantasy value.

For More on Crayton and other Week 1 Waiver Wire Steals, Click Here

**********

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Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight.net

* – Chris Chambers photo credit: Arrowhead Addict

Kurt@profootballinsight.net

First off, I find it hilarious that the talking heads on television are still waiting for the Cardinals to come to Kurt Warner’s house and drag him kicking and screaming out of retirement.

It’s not happening, and Warner can’t possibly make it any more clear.

But now that Matt Leinart has been cut, and Derek Anderson is still, well, Derek Anderson, an undrafted rookie free agent named Max Hall has positioned himself to be a potential sleeper at the QB position in 2010.

LEINART SAW HANDWRITING ON WALL W/MAX HALL (RIGHT)

It’s no surprise that Matt Leinart was a failure in his last chance to seize the Cardinals starting QB job. Warner himself was thought of as a stopgap when he came to the Cards in 2005, and conventional wisdom had him merely keeping the seat warm, before being named the starter the first time Leinart spit the bit early in ’07.

The amazing thing about the Leinart’s career path was how San Francisco 49ers fans were bent when he did not declare for the 2005 NFL Draft, where he was projected as the #1 overall choice. The Niners wound up taking Alex Smith that year, bypassing a kid that was playing locally at Cal the previous fall and completing 23 consecutive passes against the vaunted USC Trojans in the LA Coliseum. Maybe that day the NFL draftniks should have figured out who the top QB prospect should had been.

Leinart ends up slipping to the tenth overall pick in the 2006 Draft, and it turns out AZ may have been better served with Jay Cutler (the #11 overall pick) if they were willing to endure that headache. Leinart’s legacy will likely be simply of someone who fared much better at the NCAA than NFL level. Whether it’s his personality or work ethic or getting the respect of teammates, Leinart apparently fell short in those areas that are hard to measure before draft day.

I was not high on Leinart in fantasy football turns going into this season. And the Cardinals hedged their bets by getting Derek Anderson as a free agent and drafting Jon Skelton in the fifth round of this year’s draft. My original projection was that it would be Week 3 when coach Ken Whisenhunt would make his final decision to name Anderson as the starter, which would not be a tasty thought to AZ fans or fantasy owners of Larry Fitzgerald.

Fortunately, though – I don’t see Anderson lasting long into the season.

The Cardinals decided to give a free agent offer to undrafted rookie and local product product Max Hall, who has emerged as the Cardinals’ best QB period during camp, and suddenly could end up being the franchise’s future.

The quick Bio Blast on Max. Nephew of former Dallas Cowboy Danny White. Originally went to Arizona State, eventually transferred to BYU, where he had a nice three-year career in the Mountain West Conference and won some big games vs. the likes of UCLA and Oklahoma. Kind of a Danny Ainge 2.0, it was said that one practice in Provo had to be halted after Max got into three fights on the field. Also went on a Brandon Phillips routine calling out the University of Utah program after a BYU/Utah clash (Utah fans allegedly doused Max’s folks). Also called out Arizona Wildcat fans for the same reason, but more recently backed off (likely because U of A people buy Cardinals tickets too).

The Cardinals coaching staff has raved about Hall, mentioning that he has some ‘Kurt Warner’ qualities. From mini-camp on, it’s been said that Hall has shown that he has all the NFL throws, and more importantly, can command the respect of his teammates. In games, Max has been equally impressive, going 7-9 for 126 yards passing (plus rushing TD) in the Cards pre-season finale. Meanwhile Anderson, Leinart, and Skelton had 61 passing yards combined. It was enough to convince the coaching staff to cut their losses with Leinart and name Hall as the #2 QB going into the season, that’s #2 and fast closing in on #1.

So why would Hall go un-selected on Draft Day??? A quick look at the player profile gives a good clue.

Height: 6’1”

Actually, it’s said that Hall is only a shade over 6 feet (6′ 1/4”), by comparison Leinart is 6’5” and Derek Anderson 6’6”. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers in 6’2”, Favre also 6’2”, Tony Romo 6’2” Drew Brees 6′ even. One of these days scouts are going to figure out that height is over-rated.

It isn’t a matter of if but when Hall gets the starting job, and I figure it shouldn’t be long. Rookies ending up seeing significant time as a NFL starting QB is rare, not to mention an undrafted rook. But also take into consideration Hall grew up in football and he turns 25 in October and played in a pro-style offense in college. I would look at him more as the equivalent of a second or third year man.

The Cardinals open the 2010 season at St. Louis, Anderson might be able to get through that game. AZ then goes to Atlanta before hosting Oakland, and then play the Chargers and Saints leading into a Week 6 bye. Conventional wisdom says around that time a change would be made if Derek is not lighting up the skies. And even the Cards are 2-3 at that point, there would be plenty of time to right the ship in the weak NFC West.

Or Sam Bradford could totally outplay Derek on opening day and Whisenhunt may get the sense of urgency even sooner.

And actually Danny White wouldn’t be surprised if Max thinks he should be starting now.

I would not totally put the anointing oil on Max Hall at this point, but at the very least I can see him doing a solid job this season, or at least easily exceed the low bar that was set by Leinart. And having the likes of Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston at one’s disposal, as well as playing in the NFC West, also will make such a transition smoother. If in a fantasy football league and looking for a fill-in QB, I would make a waiver claim now, especially if you have a spot where you can afford to stash someone away for a while.

Hopefully Max Hall will at least be a good short-term answer in the desert, and that Kurt Warner can finally R.I.P (Retire In Peace).

Every year I see people do it. Hell, I’ve even done it myself.

However, I have learned from my draft day mistakes, and in the last 4 years I have been able to win once and finish second three times. (Of course, now that I stated that in a public forum I will probably finish last this year…)

Today, I want to show you how you should approach your fantasy football draft, and I’ll do so by using an analogy that all guys can relate to: I’ll compare fantasy football draft strategy to a night out trolling the bars for ladies.

Pre-Drinking

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Preparation

Think of this like drinking before you get to the bar to help you save money on your tab (which in my experience didn’t really save any money…it just caused me to black out earlier.) You need to do some research, and this isn’t as hard as you think. Just find a few draft ranking sheets.  They are everywhere, compare them, and find one that you most closely agree with.

The next step is to check for injuries and suspensions, and then consider a few things and rank accordingly:

• Is this a good player on a horrible team?
• Is this a great WR with a horrible QB?
• Does this team have any good complimentary players?

These are all reasons to discount players. For example, if JaMarcus Russell was the starting QB for the Colts it would have a severely negative impact on the receiving core of that team, because even Reggie Wayne couldn’t catch enough balls from a no talent ass clown like Russell to be a #1 WR.

First Round of Drinks

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Round 1

When you walk up to the bar to get your first round of drinks, there are ladies everywhere and you haven’t F-ed up your chances with any of them yet. This is just like the first round of the draft, as all the badass players are available and you’re assured to get one of them.

As the rounds of the draft progress, of course, the talent slowly dwindles and drops off. This is the same concept as the more rounds of shots you take, the worse your chances of impressing a lady are. Apparently slurring “You wanna come home with me?” isn’t what they want to hear. Who knew?

Middle Rounds of Drinks

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: After Round 4

This is the point in the draft when all of the research you did before the draft will pay off. By knowing which players are actually starting and the caliber of complimentary players around them, you will be able to find guys who are being overlooked, guys like WR Marques Colston and WR Wes Welker, who both havegreat QBs throwing to them.

Also make sure to check injury updates as the rounds get later because drafting a player who is injured for the season is comparable to making out with a tranny…and that’s f-ing gross!!

Later Stages of the Night

Fantasy Football Draft Equivalent: Final Rounds

Hopefully you haven’t blown your load and picked a kicker already. The difference between the best kicker and the 10th best kicker last year was 36 points, which averages out to just over 2 points per week. A kicker is not going to win you a championship. QBs, WRs, and RBs are.

The same thing can be said about Defenses. The difference between the best and 10th best was 55 points, which is between 3 to 4 points per game.

Last Call

A word about Rookies and players from your favorite team

You don’t get points for drafting players from your favorite team, so rank them honestly and if your league is local let someone else be the jackass that makes a homer pick prematurely.

Rookies are like a cock tease: they look really good, however it is often the case that they don’ t put out. Occasionally a rookie will surprise us and have a strong fantasy season, but more often than not – to finish the “not putting out” metaphor – rookies will leave you with blue balls.

You’re better off going for the chubby chick who is still hanging out by herself at closing time. This would be equitable to picking up a veteran starting WR like Jabar Gaffney in the final rounds. He isn’t sexy or exciting, but you know that he’ll put up some fantasy points when needed.