4 Reasons Jerome Harrison is Being Undervalued

Last year, Jerome Harrison entered fantasy football lore with one of the most unexpectedly productive final months we’ve ever seen. Over the season’s final three games, Harrison logged 286, 148, and 127 yards. He added five touchdowns for good measure.

More than a few playoff matchups were decided because of a player that few people (other than me, of course) had on their radar screen before the season began.

But as we get closer to the start of the 2010 season, I get the sense that people are becoming increasingly wary of Harrison. Much of this feeling comes from the fact that I’ve drafted Jerome Harrison in the 8th and 9th rounds in my last two drafts, and I feel he’s at least 2-3 rounds more valuable than that this year…with the potential to be even more valuable than that.

In this post, I’ll give you a few of the reasons why I am not nearly as worried about Jerome as so many others seem to be.

1. Harrison has always been productive when given a chance

As I mentioned last year, even dating back to his college days at Washington State the one constant about Jerome Harrison has been that he always produces when given consistent carries:

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5′9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16.

And when you look at his NFL career, the same holds true.

Just look at last season. In the four games in which the Browns gave Harrison 20+ carries, he was outstanding. Heading into 2010, Harrison is slated to have many more than four such games this year.

His career numbers, spread out over four seasons and 47 games, are: 271 carries, 1,310 yards, 6 TDs, 57 receptions, 402 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs. Take that as a stand-alone season and it’s top 10-15 RB material, which is exactly what I think Harrison has the potential to be this season.

Now, I don’t think he’ll grab 57 passes, so that projection is a bit much, but 250+ carries and 1200+ yards is not at all unreasonable, especially with the Browns’ being forced to focus on the run with INT-machine Jake Delhomme at QB and no standout WRs to speak of.

So you should trust that Harrison will produce if given carries. The question then becomes, is there someone on the Browns’ roster who could pilfer carries away from Harrison? Yes, but…

2. Montario Hardesty is very talented…but can’t stay healthy

The biggest knock on Harrison’s 2010 fantasy value has been the presence of Browns’ 2nd round draft choice Montario Hardesty. The rookie was very productive when healthy during his career at the University of Tennessee, with the key phrase there being when healthy.

Hardesty has already had multiple operations on his knee and only had one season at Tennessee in which he carried the ball more than 107 times. Much of that was due to the injury issues.

And guess what? Hardesty has already dealt with injury issues during the preseason and just got hurt again in the Browns’ most recent preseason game. While he may still prove to be a productive part of the Browns backfield in 2010, it is difficult, based on his history, to put much faith in Hardesty stealing consistent carries away from Harrison.

3. James Davis and Peyton Hillis are nothing special

As for 2009 rookie James Davis and Peyton Hillis, neither has shown the ability to be as productive an every down back as Harrison; and certainly neither possesses Harrison’s explosiveness or big play ability.

Hillis, however, will probably vulture some goalline TDs away from Harrison. That sucks, but it is what it is. Most of Harrison’s touchdowns come from outside the 5-10 yard lines anyway though, so this isn’t that big of a concern.

4. The Browns have a very underrated offensive line

No, the Browns’ offense was not very good last year, but it wasn’t the fault of the offensive line. Anchored by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas, the Browns consistently opened up holes for running backs and protected their quarterbacks. The problem? Ancient Jamal Lewis was too slow to hit the hole and neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson was able to play at a competent level with very, very little talent to throw to on the outside.

But, as mentioned above, Harrison proved that a productive running back with young, fresh legs can thrive behind the Browns’ current O-line. What he did over the last three weeks of the season showed that this unit can be a good run blocking line, and I expect that to continue into 2010.

Conclusion

Will Jerome Harrison produce like he did against Kansas City in Week 15 (286 yards, 3 TDs) every week? Of course not. In fact, expecting his Week 15-17 production extrapolated over a full season is foolish. The Browns played Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland, none of whom were especially strong against the run.

But, Jerome Harrison certainly has value as a #2 running back. You’re probably better off if you can pencil him as your #3 RB or flex player, but I think he finishes the season in the top 20.

To give you some comparisons: Harrison is more proven than Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, and CJ Spiller; he’ll get more opportunities than Marion Barber and Ricky Williams; and he’s less of an injury risk, based on his history, than Ronnie Brown or Joseph Addai (who is already dealing with a concussion). Yet, in most drafts, Harrison is going behind all of these guys. I’m not sure I’d do it in every situation, but a strong case could be made for taking Harrison about them all.

Certainly, Harrison is more valuable than the 8th-9th round where I’ve been getting him. Based on where he’s typically available, I’d start targeting Harrison in Round 7. And when you get him, either in that round or a round or two later, just know that you’re setting yourself up to get a guy who, based on his historical production and expected role, very well could produce Round 4-5 value.

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* – Jerome Harrison photo source: Fantasy Knuckleheads

Fantasy Football Black & White: Will Matt Forte go boom or bust in 2010?

[Editor's note: Welcome to the first installment of Fantasy Football Black & White, a weekly fantasy football debate between MSF's own Jerod Morris and Robert Littal from Black Sports Online. Each week, Jerod and Rob will figure out what they genuinely disagree on and then analyze it for you in simple black and white terms, 250 words or less. Then you get the final decision. Is it black...or is it white? Michael Jackson couldn't decide...can you?]

In today’s edition of Black & White, Rob and Jerod debate Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, who was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2009 season.

Many people drafted Forte in the top 5 after his terrific rookie season, but Forte could never seem to find a rhythm behind a struggling an offensive line and with a QB who had a penchant for red zone INTs.

What will 2010 hold for Forte?

Many are predicting a bounce back year, mainly because Mike Martz has been brought in as offensive coordinator. However, these positive predictions are muted by the memories of last year, as well as Forte’s career sub-4.0 yard per carry average.

Rob tells you why Forte will be a bust, while Jerod thinks Forte will follow in the long line of successful fantasy RBs under Martz.

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Black: Matt Forte will be a bust in 2010

I can already hear it: “Mike Martz is going to make Matt Forte into a Poor Man’s Marshall Faulk.”

It can be argued that Faulk in his prime was the greatest Fantasy Football Running Back of all time, so a poor man’s version of him is much better than any back going in the 3rd round of drafts.

Unfortunately it will never happen.

Matt Forte has a lot of similar skills to Marshall Faulk, but the Bears are nowhere near the teams Faulk was on with the Colts and Rams. Jay Cutler is no Manning or Warner. Devin Hester is no Harrison, Bruce or Holt.

But beyond all of that, the #1 reason gambling on Forte is a bad move? The Bears offensive line may be the worst in the NFL.

If you are Barry Sanders you could make it work, but a straight ahead, one cut runner like Forte will never have an opportunity to shine.

PS – Sources tell me (Stephen A-style) don’t be shocked if Chester Taylor is starting by mid-season.

White: Matt Forte will go boom in 2010

Quick, go here and look at the bulleted list about halfway down the page. Those are the reception numbers for running backs under Martz. Notice a trend? Mike Martz running backs get involved in the passing game. Period. End of story.

And lest you think that career backup Chester Taylor will be anything but a backup this year, remember that Forte already has 120 receptions in just two seasons, so it’s not like he needs to come off the field on passing downs.

And what about the Bears’ offensive line? Yes, it sucks. So? That’s not great for the Bears in real life, and it won’t make things easy on Matt Forte, but it doesn’t make him fantasy asbestos. The guy accounted for 1,700 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie despite a 3.9 yard average, so he can be a very productive #2 fantasy back even if he’s not wowing you with Chris Johnson-type success.

If Forte just reaches the averages of his two seasons so far, his 2010 numbers will be as follows:

• 1,083 rushing yards
• 6 rushing TDs
• 60 receptions
• 474 receiving yards
• 2 receiving TDs

Would you take 1,500 total yards and 8 TDs from your #2 back? I sure as heck would. And that’s a conservative projection.

Throw in the potential for Forte to catch some Mike Martz magic, and this is a player who will be a fantasy boom based on where you can land him in your drafts.

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Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Fantasy Football Tip of the Day: Don’t be scared about Jamaal Charles

I’ve heard a lot of grumbling about whether or not Jamaal Charles is really a stud fantasy RB in 2010 because he now must compete with Thomas Jones for touches. Heck, I’ve even wondered about it myself.

This morning, I’m here to tell you to stop the grumbling.

First of all, consider that Charles was already a stud last year and he only had 190 carries. It’s what he did with those 190 carries that matters, and Charles certainly made the most of them, finishing the season with 1,120 yards (a sterling 5.9 yard average) and 7 TDs. He also – importantly – tacked on 40 receptions for an additional 297 yards and another TD.

So that’s 1,400+ total yards and 8 TDs. By way of comparison, DeAngelo Williams had about 1,375 total yards and 7 TDs last year with almost 3o more carries.

And remember, Charles didn’t even start getting consistent touches until Week 10. Before that game against Oakland, Charles had not carried the ball more than six times in a single game. From Week 10 on, he never carried it less than 14 times and finished the season with 20, 25, 24, and 25 carries in consecutive weeks. That, of course, is when he exploded.

If you take Charles’ Week 10-17 performance and extrapolate it over an entire season, you’d get 1,936 yards on 322 carries…which is just ridiculous production. But that’s how good Charles was during the season’s second half last year. No one really expects Charles to get that many touches, especially with Jones in the picture, but he certainly will remain a featured part of the Chiefs’ offense.

Let’s say that Charles carries the ball 17 times per game, a reasonable and conservative estimate. His career average is 5.7 yards per carry, which he almost certainly will not maintain, but let’s say he averages a modest 4.5. That’s still 1,224 yards. If he tacks on another 40-50 receptions, which he almost certainly will, that’s another 300-400 yards. Assuming he gets 8-10 touchdowns, another modest assumption, you’re talking about a back who eclipses 1,500 yards and with 8-10 TDs.

That’s easily 2nd round material at a position as tough and competitive as running back – and it’s worst-case-scenario type stuff. Based on what we saw last year, Charles has the talent to get 1,500+ rushing yards even without toting the rock 300 times.

I know that people are worried Thomas Jones will steal some of Charles’ thunder this year, but I would not be overly concerned about it. While Jones was monstrous in his own right last year, he is 32 years old and approaching the inevitable running back cliff. At this point in his career, he is best served by accepting a reduced role and excelling in it, especially coming off of a 331-carry season.

The Chiefs will be better on offense this year than people think (Charlie Weis baby!), and I believe there will be plenty of scoring opportunities for Charles to be a solid #2 RB or even a #1 guy if you go QB or WR in Round 1. I also think Jones will have some flex value getting 10-12 touches per game and the occasional score.

But do not – I repeat do not - downgrade Jamaal Charles because Thomas Jones is around.

In fact, consider this: the knock on Charles has always been his size, leading to people questioning whether or not he can take a pounding. Well, having Jones around means Charles won’t have to carry 300+ times, which should theoretically keep him fresher and mitigate the risk of injury. A reasonable argument could be made that the presence of Jones actually increases Charles’ value. It’s counter-intuitive, I know. But you don’t win fantasy leagues by just following the herd of groupthink all the time.

Final thought: Teams know that they need two competent RBs in this day and age, but the fresher, more talented legs almost always win out. Jamaal Charles clearly has both, and he is in line to pick up right where he left off in 2009.

Merriman May Miss Opener

Update: San Diego Chargers LB Shawne Merriman may miss the team's regular season opener against the Chiefs, the AP reports. Merriman has been bothered by an Achilles' tendon injury, and will not play in the preseason finale.

Fantasy Impact: It is likely best for Merriman to sit out and Week 1 and get healthy, rather than to play with an injury and risk further hurting himself. Merriman is a prolific pass rusher and the team needs him to be healthy to do what he can at his best.

Haynesworth Might Not Play Week 1

Update: Jason La Canfora of NFL Network reports that even though Washington Redskins DT/DE Albert Haynesworth will get a heavy workload this Thursday in the preseason finale, he may be inactive Week 1 versus the Dallas Cowboys. Haynesworth and head coach Mike Shanahan have not seen eye-to-eye this off-season, and this may be a way for the coach to show the player who is in charge.

Fantasy Impact: Whether you like Haynesworth or not, it is undeniable that he is an impact player. And without him, the chances of beating the Cowboys Week 1 are severely decreased. If priority number 1 for Shanahan is to win football games, then sitting Haynesworth is not in the best interest of the team.

Bryant Won’t Play On Thursday

Update: Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com reports that Dallas Cowboys rookie WR Dez Bryant will not play on Thursday. Bryant came back this week from an ankle injury and was expected to make his NFL debut in the preseason finale. However, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said that none of the regulars will play. Fantasy Impact: It looks like Bryant's debut will be during the regular season opener. He should be nearly 100% by then, so he will be on the field for a significant amount of time. In fantasy, it likely would not be a great idea to start Bryant in week 1 because no one knows exactly how much he will play and what kind of chemistry he has with QB Tony Romo. But if he plays well, he could end up being a very solid fantasy WR this season.

Dallas Round-Up | Rangers Stretch Lead | Cowboys Making Noise In Camp

Those doing their college football betting online are gearing up for the beginning of their season, but the baseball betting season is starting to heat up, and Texas is well on their way to the American League West crown.  In the NFL, Dez Bryant is getting off to an interesting start with the Cowboys.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers will be aiming to take the rubber match of their three-game set with Oakland at home, wrapping up a week in which they took three of four against the Los Angeles Angels at home last weekend.  Michael Young went deep three times for the Rangers last week, hitting .318 with four RBIs, while Nelson Cruz batted .417 with a pair of homers and four RBIs.  If the Rangers can continue to prove that their lineup isn’t just Josh Hamilton and Vladdy Guerrero, who struggled last week, their MLB betting odds will improve.  Cliff Lee continues to be a monster for the Rangers, going 1-0 in two starts last year, tossing 17.1 innings, and he struck out 17 batters….without walking a single one.  Neftali Feliz was perfect in three save opportunities for the Rangers, who have another important week coming up.  The Rangers head out on the road for a nine-game trip with teams from the West, beginning with a three-game set in Los Angeles against the Angels this weekend, following by a visit to Seattle, Lee’s former team. If they can manage to at least split their six games in the next week, the Rangers should be sitting pretty in the West.

Dallas Cowboys

NCAA football betting players know that Dez Bryant had a tough time at Oklahoma State, missing virtually all of last year because he lied to NCAA investigators about a meeting with Deion Sanders, and it’s things like these that caused him to slip in the draft (some folks call them “character issues”.  Then, Bryant made a fuss earlier this week when he refused to carry the pads of Roy Williams, who many people feel Bryant will replace in the starting lineup.  Bryant then said he wasn’t aware of the tradition that has been going on not only in the NFL, but in most professional sports, for years.  Rookies, no matter how highly touted or where they were drafted, are usually counted on carry pads, buy dinners, and be generally subservient to the veterans, and it’s not like they were trying to tape him to goalposts or anything.  Of course, the media took and made way too big of an issue, but Bryant is going to have to learn to be more humble and realize that he’s part of a team now.  Little things like that can mess with a team’s online betting odds.

Dallas Cowboys Update: Dez Bryant Making Waves

As long as there has been sports betting in the NFL, there has been rookie initiations. It is usually harmless stuff like singing in a rookie talent show, cleaning up the cafeteria after lunch or carrying a veteran receiver’s pads after practice. While the NFL betting world is excited that Dez Bryant finally signed a five-year, $11.8 million dollar contract to get him officially into training camp, some of the Cowboy veteran players are not happy with Bryant.

After a practice last week, Dez Bryant refused to carry the pads of veteran wide receiver Roy Williams. Bryant said he was drafted to win football games and not carry pads. Williams said that actions like the one taken by Bryant sometimes result in retaliation by the team veterans. The fact of the matter is that Bryant is competing with Williams for the second or third wide receiver job, and it may be Williams that is carrying Bryant’s shoulder pads before long.

In other Dez Bryant news, the rookie receiver has been showing up to the practice field wearing Nike apparel. Normally that would not be a big deal, except for the fact that Bryant was sponsored by Under Armour. Because of his apparel preference, Under Armour decided to drop Bryant as a paid endorser. According to Nike, Bryant is not under contract with the company in any capacity.

As the NCAA football betting season approaches, it makes football fans wonder how far NFL players leave their college days behind them. Apparently third-year tight end Martellus Bennett is having a difficult time leaving his younger years in the past. Recently, some nude photos of Bennett have surfaced on the Internet. Bennett says they were taken while he was in college, and were kept by a former girlfriend. It is believed that the ex-girlfriend released the photos. Bennett apologized, and the Cowboys have only said that they are dealing with the issue internally.

The Cowboys put a small monkey wrench into the NFL preseason betting when they did not bring any experienced field goal kickers into camp. The team drafted a kicker, and then gave kick-off specialist David Buehler the chance to be the full-time field goal kicker. Cowboy fans held their collective breath as field goal kicking problems hurt the Cowboys last season. It seems that Buehler is on track to be the field goal kicker, and is progressing well. Word out of Cowboys’ camp is that the kicking job is Buehler’s to lose.

Quarterback Tony Romo is a three time NFL all-star, and now he has also won a game in the playoffs. But Romo is not taking anything for granted. He recently spoke to reporters and said that he not only expects to be a Super Bowl champion, it is something that he knows he needs to do to erase mistakes of the past and push him to a higher status among NFL quarterbacks. Romo’s confidence is growing, and with a potent running game behind him and talented receivers to throw to, Romo could be holding the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the end of this season.

Dallas Cowboys Update: The Kicking Question is Answered

With all of the World Cup betting going on right now, kicking a ball is on the minds of many sports fans around the world. In 2009, Dallas Cowboys place kickers Nick Folk and Shaun Suisham missed a combined total of 11 kicks with Suisham going one for three in the Cowboys final playoff game against the Vikings.

Cowboy fans were betting that there would be some changes at kicker in Valley Ranch, and now that we have found out that there have kind of been some changes. This week the Cowboys released place-kicker Connor Hughes, which means that the job of Cowboys’ place kicker will go to second-year man David Buehler.

The NFL betting experts may remember Buehler as the kicker drafted by the Cowboys in 2009 as a kick-off specialist. Buehler’s only stat in the NFL is an impressive one. As a rookie in 2009, he led the league with 29 touchbacks. But as a place-kicker in the NFL, he has no experience at all. Buehler won the job in OTAs and mini-camp, but he has never kicked a field goal in the NFL, not even an exhibition game. The Cowboys are hoping their gamble at kicker pays off.

You would think the World Cup final betting was centered in Dallas with the way that Jerry Jones is treating his Super Bowl hosting duties. As the site of Super Bowl XLV this season, the Cowboys have already put in place a staff of thousands of willing volunteers. To add to that, Jerry Jones intends to kick off Super Bowl Sunday on September 10, 2010 with a huge country music concert in the stadium, and archival NFL footage being shown on the big screens inside the stadium. The game isn’t being played until February 6, 2011, but Jones is already making Texas the NFL place to be this season.

Kim Kardashian may now be part of the Cowboys’ run to Super Bowl XLV. It is rumored that Kardashian is dating Cowboys star receiver Miles Austin. During the New Orleans Saints Super Bowl run, Kardashian was dating Saints running back Reggie Bush. The Cowboys may have taken on yet another good omen for the 2010 season.

Linebacker Jason Williams had a rough season in 2009. An injury shortened his season to only five games, and in those five games he only had a combined total of three tackles. Obviously, the Cowboys were not impressed as the team went out and drafted linebacker Sean Lee from the linebacker factory at Penn State. It is looking like Lee will stand as third on the Cowboys linebacker depth chart behind Keith Brooking and Bradie James and not Williams.

The pressure on the 2010 Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl is tremendous. Jerry Jones is taking full advantage of being the host of Super Bowl XLV, and he wants his perfect ending to be his Cowboys winning the big game in his new building. Jones has brought in Cowboy legends such as Roger Staubach to talk to the team and give any insight the hall of famer can give on what it takes to make it to the Super Bowl.

Dallas Cowboys Update: Tony Romo Still Distracted

Dallas Cowboys Update: Romo Still Distracted

When you bet World Cup games you try to put your money on the teams that seem focused and ready to compete. When you bet on sports like football, you try to narrow it down to teams that have strong and focused leadership. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has been in the news lately, but not for football. Romo has been trying to qualify for the US Open Championship of golf, but his dreams were squashed when a rain delay pushed his second qualifying round over into a practice day for the Cowboys.

It is admirable that Romo dropped out of  qualifying for golf’s US Open because of his commitment to football, but this has been an ongoing problem with Romo for a couple of years now. The NFL betting will not soon forget the Las Vegas vacation Romo took two years ago in between playoff rounds, or his habit of choosing time with his girlfriend of the moment over working with his offensive line. Romo is easily distracted and that is not going to help the Cowboys in their quest for a Super Bowl win.

Wide receiver Patrick Crayton announced, through his agent Fred Lyles, that he will participate in the teams tenth and final OTA session this week. Crayton is still not happy about the uncertainty of his role with the Cowboys, but he claims he is excited to get on the field and compete for a starting job. The public display that Crayton has made to this point could make this last OTA session too little, too late if he plans on patching things up with the Cowboys. Jerry Jones has indicated that he has no plans on releasing or trading Crayton.

Right now the Dallas Cowboys are scheduled to split training camp between San Antonio, Texas and Oxnard, California. While it may seem inconvenient to break up camp between two states, Jerry Jones likes the set-up and is in negotiations with the facility in San Antonio to extend the Cowboys’ contract for several more years.

Just like Celtics Lakers betting, there is another part to the Dallas Cowboys’ wide receiver saga. That part is Sam Hurd. Hurd recently recovered from thumb surgery and was able to join OTAs in the middle of last week. Hurd indicates that he is only interested in contributing to the team in whatever way they need him, and he has not mentioned at all how he feels Dez Bryant could impact the wide receiver position for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are still pondering the question of who their feature running back will be when the season opens. Marion Barber was given the job in 2009, but he proved to be injury-prone and possibly not durable enough to be a feature back. Felix Jones seemed to excel at being the main back, but he too was injured towards the end of the season. The knee injury for Jones eventually cleared up and he went on to average 5.9 yards a carry for a total of 685 yards in 2009. Barber averaged 4.4 yard a carry and finished the 2009 season with 932 yards.

Barber had almost 100 more carries in 2009 than Jones, but Jones’ average per carry is impressive. The Cowboys may have to consider moving Barber back to being the third down and short yardage back, while making Jones the feature back for the 2010 season.

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