Fantasy Football Week 13 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well friends, I am disappointed to say that I dropped another game in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. The loss drops me to 6-6 on the season and two games out of the final playoff spot. I now need to win out and I need help. That is never a good position to be in.

So what went wrong in Week 12? It would be easy to look at the tight end position, where I chose Vernon Davis over Kevin Boss. Davis proceeded to score three points, and I lost by four. Since Kevin Boss had 70+ yards and a TD, the winning production was sitting on the bench at that one spot.

But, just like the Buffalo Bills’ loss in Week 12 cannot be totally blamed on Stevie Johnson dropping that wide open TD pass, there were other positions that could have picked up the slack. Adrian Peterson was running wild before getting hurt and having to leave the game. Vincent Jackson, who I foolishly started in his first game back*, got hurt after two plays. Neither Mike Wallace nor Mike Thomas came anywhere close to the production they’d been getting recently.

* – One of my most trusted fantasy football principles has always been that I don’t start guys who are playing in their first game back after a long layoff. I prefer to wait for them to prove on the field that they are back, even it takes two or three weeks. I like seeing before I believe. Yet, here we are in Week 12, crunch time for all of us, and I recommend Sidney Rice as my WR start ‘em and then go with Vincent Jackson in the most critical week of my season in the Blogger Fantasy League. I failed myself and I failed you. I’m sorry. This is a great example of why having principles and sticking to them is so important. In Week 12, I was a doofus, and I cost us all.

Add it all up, and most of what could go wrong did go wrong, save for Eli, BenJarvus, and Dan Carpenter coming through huge. The real surprise is that I only lost by three points with this confluence of crap that occurred.

And with that, Week 12 is over. Thanks for letting me vent. It is time to turn our attention towards Week 13, and as I did last week, I will enlist your help later this week in setting my Week 13 roster.

Update: Since I am not yet mathematically eliminated from the BFL2010 playoffs, I am seeking your help again in setting my Week 13 roster. P&G gift bags for those who offer up the best responses!

Before we delve into the Week 13 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Adrian Peterson; Eli Manning
• Start em misses: Cleveland Browns D; Sidney Rice; Ben Watson
• Sit em hits: Terrell Owens; Dustin Keller; New England D
• Sit em misses: Fred Jackson; Michael Vick

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 13.

***Remember that Houston and Philadelphia play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (at Detroit)

You know I am predisposed to putting Jay Cutler in the sit ‘em category because I generally do not like him either as a QB or a person (based on what I know of his cocky ass anyway). So when you see that I am putting my faith in Cutler as my start ‘em QB, you know it’s pretty much a slam dunk.

Let’s discuss a few reasons why Cutler warrants this spot in Week 13.

First off, he’s been playing pretty well lately. Week 12 marked the third time in four games that Cutler has tossed multiple TDs. He is also doing an admirable job (based on his own low standards) of protecting the football. This shows that Cutler is getting more comfortable in Mike Martz’s system as the season goes along, and that his O-Line is making some (but just some) progress.

The second, and most important, reason why I like Cutler is his matchup. The Bears play the Lions in Week 12, the same Lions who gave up four TD passes to Tom Brady in Week 12. In addition to the Lions having a very generous secondary, Cutler has proven in the past that he can exploit it. Here are Cutler’s last three games against the Lions:

• Week 1, 2010: 372 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Week 4, 2009: 141 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INT
• Week 17, 2009: 276 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INT

That’s 8 TDs and just one pick in three games. With the Bears offense playing better and the Lions defense reeling right now, everything adds up to Cutler being a great Week 13 start.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 13 projection: 310 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 13:

• Michael Vick faces Houston in Week 13 on Thursday night. Should be ’nuff said.
• Mark Sanchez is at New England and its questionable secondary. Sanchez has thrown 6 TDs over the last three games and New England will give ‘em up.
• Many people thought Eli Manning should be on their bench in Week 12 because of the rash of injuries in the Giants’ WR corps. All Manning did was throw for 200+ yards and 2 TDs. The guy has 23 TDs passes now! Respect earned. He has another solid matchup in Week 13 against Washington.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em QB: Tom Brady, New England (at New York Jets)

Tom Brady has been playing great lately. He has 11 TDs and 0 INTs in his last four games. That is terrific. And he hasn’t just done it against poor defenses. Sure, he feasted on the Browns and Lions, but he also threw multiple TD passes against the Steelers and Colts, both of whom are relatively stingy against the pass.

However, in Week 13 Brady and the Patriots host the New York Jets, and while Brady had a nice day against New York early this season (248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), that was before the Jets had Darrelle Revis back and healthy.

Here is what Brady did against the Jets last year:

• Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
• Week 11: 310 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

So in Brady’s last three games against the Jets, he’s thrown 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Additionally, the Jets’ pass D is just now rounding into form. After being surprisingly generous early in the season, the Jets have given up just three TD passes over the last three weeks and surely will be primed and ready to attack Brady on Monday Night Football.

Brady’s superior skill and wide range of options make him a decent play even against the Jets, but I think there are at least 8-10 options who are better, and you should see if one of those resides on your bench or the waiver wire if Week 13 is a must-win matchup for you.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 13 projection: 225 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 13:

• Jon Kitna threw no TD passes last week against New Orleans after two straight weeks of throwing three. I’m still not a believer, especially against Indy.
• Carson Palmer against New Orleans is a pretty obvious sit.
• Donovan McNabb faces a pretty stingy New York GIants defense, especially when it comes to the pass. He’ll likely be running for his life all day.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (at Minnesota)

Based on my Never Start Running Backs Facing Pittsburgh rule, I told you to sit Fred Jackson in Week 13. Proving that I walk the walk that I talk, I sat him myself in the leagues in which I own. Naturally, FJax then proceeded to rack up 163 total yards and a TD.

Fred, I get it now. You’re a must start. Every week. You didn’t need to rub it in!

I assume that you, my astute reader, understands that Fred Jackson is knocking on the door of top 10 running back status. Still, I list him here because I fear that people could see his matchup, at Minnesota, and be wary. The Vikings, after all, give up less than 100 yards rushing per game and have allowed just six rushing TDs this year. To that, I say this: Pittsburgh was giving up 63 yards rushing per game and had given up just four rushing TDs coming into Week 12…and we know what FJax did against that imposing unit.

Here is why I really love Fred Jackson, and why he is a must-must start in PPR leagues: he gets involved consistently in passing game. He had five catches (for 100+ yards) in Week 12, and this comes on the heels of him catching three, six, and five passes, respectively, over the previous three weeks.

Jackson has three straight games with at least 125+ yards and a TD. If you’re not comfortable starting him at this point, you are either too stubborn or have some really good RB options. Week 12 proved that, tough matchup or not, Fred Jackson is an every week play.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 13 projection: 95 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 13:

• Jamaal Charles continues to rack up yards (and finally got into the end zone!). I’ll continue to tell you to start him.
• Chris Johnson struggled in Week 12. I don’t care. Unless something comes out about an injury we weren’t aware of, you start him in Week 13 against Jacksonville. He could very well be the #1 overall player this week.
• Matt Forte had a great game against the Lions in Week 1. He should have another good one against them this week.
• Ray Rice faces Pittsburgh in Week 13, which is usually an automatic sit situation. The Steelers are not as quite as imposing nowadays due to injuries along their defensive front. Rice isn’t a slam dunk play, but I’d make sure you have some pretty good alternatives before you sit him.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to produce. Even against the Jets I say start him. In fact, with the Jets’ secondary likely to frustrate Tom Brady, I think Green-Ellis will be a big part of the gameplan.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (at New England)

Folks, I predicted it a while back and it is coming to fruition: LaDainian Tomlinson is not built for a 16-game season at this stage in his career. While LT still has some value in PPR leagues (he has 21 catches over the last four weeks), he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 6 and hasn’t averaged more than 3.7 yards per rush in a game since Week 5.

As the season moves into December, I expect Shonn Greene to continue to get the majority of the carries for the Jets. LT is in his 30s now and running backs in their 30s simply have a harder time maintaining their explosiveness through a 16-game schedule and as the weather gets colder. He’s already done more than most people expected, so there is no shame in LT’s production dipping. Just make sure you don’t stubbornly keep him in your lineup in Week 13 because of what he did in Weeks 1-6.

LaDainian Tomlinson fantasy football Week 13 projection: 45 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 13:

• The Dolphins got Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams much more involved in Week 12 against Oakland, with Williams even scoring a TD. Let’s hope this is a trend that will continue for the Dolphins, but I’m not quite ready to trust either guy just yet.
• Keiland Williams, what the hell was that? Apparently being named the starter in Washington means you get seven total touches. Damn you Mike Shanahan. Actually, damn me. Damn all of us. It was our fault for trusting you.
• Brandon Jackson just really isn’t a viable fantasy player unless you’re decimated by injuries and simply someone who will get touches. He simply isn’t very productive.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em WR: Mario Manningham, New York Giants (v Washington)

I was somewhat hesitant to recommend the seemingly obvious Mario Manningham in Week 12 despite his role as the #1 WR for Eli Manning with Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith out. I’ve simply been burned too many times by Manningham in the past to totally trust him. Plus, with Jacksonville surely keying on him, I wondered if Manningham was up to the challenge of being the #1 guy.

The end result of Week 12 was not spectacular, but it was good enough for a WR that most people probably had as a #2/#3 guy: 3 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD. That’ll get the job done, and it’s what we should be able to expect from Manningham as Eli’s top target when going up against a porous Jags defense.

In Week 13, Eli, Mario, and the Giants face an equally inept pass defense when the Washington Redskins come to town. Sure, the ‘Skins held the Vikings passing game in check in Week 12, but who hasn’t been doing that lately? Eli has been appreciably better than Brett Favre this year and is a virtual lock for two TDs each week. Assuming that trend continues, it’s a safe bet that Mario will get one of them. Based on his Week 12 production, start Manningham with confidence.

Additional note: even if Hakeem Nicks or Steve Smith come back in Week 13 (which would surprise me) still start Mario. You might not have noticed, but Manningham had 17 catches for 171 yards and a TD over the three weeks preceding Week 12. That’s not great, but it’s proof that he’s finding a groove even when he’s the #2 or #3 option.

Mario Manningham fantasy football Week 13 projection: 4 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 13:

• Steve Johnson was a drop machine who cost his team the game by dropping a wide open TD chance in overtime. Still, he caught 7 passes for 68 yards. He stays in your lineup.
• Jay Cutler has a really nice rapport with Earl Bennett, which resulted in two TDs in Week 12. Bennett has been inconsistent, but the matchup against Detroit could be a fruitful one. For that matter, I also like Johnny Knox and Devin Hester in Week 13.
• I know I told you to sit Tom Brady above, but that does not mean I’d sit Wes Welker. He’s been red hot lately and has played well against the Jets the last two times he’s faced them.
• I like Santonio Holmes a lot against New England’s secondary. Even Braylon Edwards isn’t a terrible play against them.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em WR: Randy Moss, Tennessee (v Jacksonville)

That’s it. I’m done. I’ve had it. Even after proclaiming myself done with Randy Moss after his Week 11 no-show, I still ended up softening my stance by Sunday and recommending him to some of you in Week 12. The recommendation was based on solely on Moss’ matchup against the historically bad Houston Texans secondary. Moss ended up catching three passes for 23 yards. Yay.

Now, I’ll give Moss something of a pass because clearly Rusty Smith was not ready to play in an NFL game. Smith’s presence killed the fantasy value of every Titan, including Chris Johnson. Luckily for the Titans, Kerry Collins is expected to be back in the lineup for Week 13, though there are no guarantees yet. If so, that clearly helps out Moss and the other Titans receivers.

Still, Collins or not, here is Moss’ recent production:

• Week 11: 0 catches
• Week 10: 1 catch, 26 yards
• Week 8: 1 catch, 8 yards
• Week 7: 3 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD

So you have to go all the way back to Week 7 to find a game in which Moss had even a semblance of fantasy value. Since then? Bupkus.

I know that the matchup against Jacksonville is inviting, but I’m done trusting Moss. Even if Collins plays, I’m placing the onus on Moss to produce something significant before I’m trusting him with seasons and playoff spots hanging in the balance.

Randy Moss fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 13:

• Despite his recent three week stretch of excellent production, I’m not high on Deion Branch this week. With Brandon Tate‘s issues catching the football, I expect Darrelle Revis to cover Branch. That automatically hurts his value.
• We all got really excited about Dez Bryant there for a few weeks. Then he reminded us that he is just a rookie and that rookies, especially rookie WRs, tend to be maddeningly inconsistent. Start him at your own risk from here on out, though the potential for a big week is always there.
• Well, I’ve touted Sidney Rice‘s return for two straight weeks and he’s responded by catching four passes. Woo. Hoo. Rice may yet prove to have fantasy value this season, but the onus is not on him to prove it before we trust him.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em TE: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta (at Tampa Bay)

I’m surprised by how many questions I get about Tony Gonzalez on a weekly basis. I still consider him a bona fide top 10 tight end and weekly start, but many of you seem to not agree. Much of this, I think, comes from Gonzo’s slow start to the season (4 catches, 54 yards, 0 TDs through first two weeks of season) and the fact that coming into Week 12 he only had two games in which he’d caught a TD.

In Week 12, Gonzalez reminded us why he is such a solid option, catching 6 passes for 51 yards and a TD against a very good Green Bay Packers defense. In Week 13, Gonzalez and the Falcons get to face a Tampa Bay Bucs team that gave up a long TD pass to the not-so-fleet-of-foot Todd Heap. I think Gonzalez should be able to take advantage similarly.

Tony Gonzalez fantasy football Week 13 projection: 4 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 13:

• Greg Olsen caught a TD pass in Week 12. He had a decent outing against Detroit in Week 1 and I like him to have a decent game in Week 13 as well.
• Eli Manning clearly trusts Kevin Boss, going back to him time and again in a close second half after Boss made a bad drop. Boss rewarded him with the game-winning TD. Assuming Nicks and Smith are out again, Boss is a solid option again.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (v Atlanta)

K2 has been a solid though unspectacular producer this year. He finally broke through with a TD in Week 10 and there was hope that more would be on the way. Perhaps there will be (the garbage time TD in Week 12 was a start), but Atlanta is not a great matchup. The Falcons are among the stingiest defenses in the NFL when it comes to points allowed to opposing tight ends. That, combined with Winslow’s overall lack of explosiveness this season, makes him a prime candidate to sit.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 13:

• I’m sitting Aaron Hernandez (1 catch in two straight games) until he proves he should be a starter again.
• The Saints are pretty good against opposing tight ends so Jermaine Gresham is another rookie TE I wouldn’t want starting this week.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em D/ST: New York Giants (v Washington)

The Giants have been an up and down defense this year, even within games. Week 12 is a great example. Jacksonville ran all over the Giants in the first half, but New York got it together in half #2 and held the Jags in check. With the pass rush that New York can create, they will always be a threat to get sacks and force turnovers, which is what gives a fantasy defense the potential for big days. With Washington’s offense not showing any signs of continuity or explosiveness, the Giants seem like a very safe pick with upside.

New York Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: 17 or fewer points, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em defense / special teams units for Week 13:

• Seattle got roasted by the Chiefs in Week 12. Still, they should be able to fare much better against Carolina in Week 13.
• The Miami Dolphins did an excellent job in Week 12 against Oakland. Facing Cleveland in Week 13, and presumably Jake Delhomme, the potential is there for a big fantasy day.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em D/ST: Arizona Cardinals (v St. Louis Rams)

The Cardinals have been a popular fantasy defense at different points this season, mainly because they have a special teams unit that can put up points and offset the big plays allowed by the offense. Coming off a short week, I’m not a big fan of a struggling Cardinals defense that will take on the red hot Rams. Sam Bradford and Co ran and passed all over the Denver in Week 12, proving that they don’t have to be at home to click offensively. I think Arizona’s time as a fantasy-relevant defense has come to an end. If you watched any of the Monday Night game (27 points to the 49ers…really?) you surely agree.

Arizona Cardinals fantasy football Week 13 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em defense / special teams units for Week 13:

• Oakland has to face Philip Rivers in Week 13. Considering what Chad Henne and the previously woeful Dolphins D did to them in Week 12, I’d say that doesn’t bode well.
• New England‘s D is not one I’d want to mess with this week. The Jets offense has been able to throw the ball well, and that’s New England’s major issue on defense.

The comment section awaits your questions. Fire away!

**********

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well, it’s getting down to crunch time for my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. Coming into Week 11, I was just a game behind the two leaders of my division, needing to crack the top two to make the playoffs.

Unfortunately, my team threw up a dud, scoring just 80.28 points. It led to a blowout loss to a team that had been 3-7 before facing me. Strong performances from Matt Ryan, MJD, and the unstoppable Dwayne Bowe did me in as Brandon Marshall, Dan Carpenter, Adrian Peterson, and Eli Manning all let me down.

What’s sad is that had I played Ryan Fitzpatrick over Eli and BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Mike Goodson over Adrian Peterson, the matchup would have been much closer. But I do not second guess myself for either choice, especially the Peterson start. He starts every week. Had I decided to get cute and start The Lawfirm over Peterson, it would have been right in this singular instance but still decidedly the wrong move in all but the most myopic of viewpoints. Hopefully you agree.

That’s my philosophy in a nutshell, as I’m sure you’ve realized if you read this site regularly. I harp on it over and over because I don’t think it can be harped on enough. Play your stars until they force your hand.

Adrian Peterson has been very good this year, mostly consistent, and is so explosive that he could score 25 points any week against any defense. A little dip won’t sour me on him, even a two-week dip, nor should it sour you on him.

Marshall, on the other hand, is a totally different story. He’s parlayed a top-10 target total into one measly touchdown. And with Tyler Thigpen looking like a deer in headlights against Chicago, I’m now more worried than before about Marshall’s long-term prospects for this season.

Brandon Marshall has actually been listed as a sit two straight weeks in this column, and both times I was right. Unfortunately, I lack WR depth on my BFL team, so I’ve had to play him. Now that I have Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson back, perhaps it will light a fire under Marshall’s ass and get him going.

Oh wait, it doesn’t quite work like that, does it?. They aren’t actually teammates and I’m not actually their coach/GM. Anyone else get confused about this by the time Week 12 rolls around?

With that said, let’s just move along now.

Update: HELP! I NEED YOUR HELP!

After my lineup “mistakes” last week, I decided I should seek out the counsel of you, the loyal and insightful reader. So I am requesting your answers to a few questions about my Week 12 lineup. And to entice you to participate, I’m sending free P&G gift packs to the people who give the most well thought-out and reasoned advice.

Click here: Week 12 advice for Jerod’s Blogger Fantasy League Team

Before we delve into the Week 12 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 11 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 11 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Mark Sanchez, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Pettigrew, Baltimore D
• Start em misses: Felix Jones (damn me for trusting him!!! See!!?? Trust your principles!!!),
• Sit em hits: Jahvid Best, Kellen Winslow, Washington D
• Sit em misses: Matt Ryan, Big Mike Williams (no TD as I predicted, but I have to respect the 6 receptions, 100+ yards)

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 12.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (v Jacksonville)

I swear that this is not a self-serving/talk-myself-into-confidence pick. Seriously. I promise.

I know that Eli threw up a dud in Week 11, hurt by his three INTs and fumbles. I also know that he is without Steve Smith for another week and that Hakeem Nicks is also now out for a few weeks. And no, I’m not particularly excited about trusting Mario Manningham as the #1 wide receiver.

But…and it’s a big but, consider the following about Eli’s Week 12 opponent:

• The Jaguars are 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (264.6).
• The Jags are also 28th in the league in TDs allowed this season (20).
• The Jags are just middle-of-the-pack when it comes to picking passes off (9 in 10 games).
• The Jags are 31st and one of only three teams that allows a passer rating of 100.0+ (103.9)
• Here are the point totals of the Jags’ four road opponents this year: 38, 26, 42, 17 (and that 17 was the Cowboys before Wade Phillips got fired, so it barely counts).

Why am I listing so many stats? Because I want you to understand that even with Smith and Nicks out, Eli is still a solid start in Week 12. Is it mainly matchup? Yes. But who cares? If he’s a top 10 QB in Week 12, you want him in your lineup. I think he will be.

Finally, consider that Colt McCoy probably plays on the offense with the worst outside playmakers in football. Yet he went 17-28 for 241 yards and a TD. Is that great? No. But it’s passable. If that is your floor (and I think for a guy like Manning it is) and you can reasonably expect more, I like those odds.

Eli has thrown at least two TDs in six straights games. I expect that streak to continue. And don’t look now, but Eli plays Washington and Minnesota the next two weeks. If you own him, stick with him despite the injuries to his WRs.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 12 projection: 250 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 12:

• You know what team is tied with Jacksonville giving up 20 TDs this season? The New England Patriots. They play Detroit on Thanksgiving day, and I expect Shaun Hill to toss at least two TDs as he tries to keep up with Tom Brady-Bieber.
• Ben Roethlisberger is a must-start this week, taking on a Buffalo defense that has also given up 20 TD passes this year.
• Joe Flacco has thrown at least two TDs in three of his team’s four home games. He is known as a better player at home than on the road. Against Tampa Bay’s middle-of-the-pack pass D, expect a solid day.
• Matt Cassel has thrown 8 TDs in his last three games. Seattle is in the bottom third of the league against the pass. He’s a sleeper top 10 QB for Week 12. Say it with me now: all hail Dwayne Bowe!

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em QB: Michael Vick, Philadelphia (at Chicago)

Who would I rather have for the remainder of the 2010 season – Eli Manning or Michael Vick? Vick, no question. But I’d rather start Eli in Week 12, and it has everything to do with the matchup.

Since I listed out the Jags’ defensive numbers, allow me to do the same with the mighty Chicago Bears D:

• The Bears have given up a league-low 6 TD passes this year while picking of 15 passes (tied for second).
• The Bears are in the top half of the league giving up just 212.4 passing yards per game.
• No team gives up fewer points per game than the Bears (14.6, tied with Green Bay).

Now consider the following stat line:

• 1 passing TD, 0 INTs, 2 rushing TDs

While that is about half of the first quarter for Vick against Washington, it is the cumulative total of Vick’s production in the game before and after that anomalous outburst against the Redskins. Put another way: against the Colts and Giants, two defenses clearly worse than the Bears, Vick produced just 1.5 TDs per game.

Philly may very well win in Week 12, and Vick could end up producing well, especially if the Eagles’ play-making secondary can pick off Jay Cutler and give the offense a short field; but I’ve been burned more than a few times this year playing guys who were going against the Bears.

I think there are 10-12 safer options this week than Vick. He’ll always have huge potential, but I see the risk/reward weighted a little bit more toward the risk in Week 12.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 12 projection: 220 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, 1 TD (rushing or passing)

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 12:

• Jon Kitna has thrown 3 TDs in back to back weeks. You probably would love to play a guy playing in Thanksgiving Day game to make it more fun. Despite both of those realities, don’t play Kitna. The Saints have given up only 7 passing TDs all year.
• Doubting Josh Freeman hasn’t been very smart this year, yet I’m going to do it in Week 12. Baltimore is tied for 6th giving up only 12 TD passes this year, and Ed Reed is back causing havoc in the secondary. Also, Tampa Bay has gotten throttled by the good teams it has played this year.
• Carson Palmer has thrown 8 TDs over his last four games, yet it should be obvious that he sits against the Jets on Thursday night.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em RB: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota (at Washington)

Alright look, I know what you’re thinking: hey, wait a minute, Jerod has Eli and AD on his BFL team. He’s just listing them as start ‘ems to make himself feel better!

I promise you that’s not the case (or at least not totally the case). And I also promise you that listing Peterson here is not a cop-out. Here are his stat lines the last two weeks:

• at Chicago: 17 carries, 51 yards, 4 receptions, 24 yards, 0 TDs
• v Green Bay: 14 carries, 72 yards, 1 reception, 16 yards, 0 TDs

The glaring stat there is the lack of TD production. For people who drafted Peterson in the top 4 (like me), much more is expected on a weekly basis. I’ve seen a few people getting frustrated with AD, threatening even to bench him, so I want to nip that crazy talk in the bud by naming him my start ‘em RB for Week 12.

There are a couple of reasons for this: 1) because AD is as talented a back as there is in the game, and you don’t sit that kind of talent; and 2) because his matchup is stellar in Week 12. Washington gives up the 9th most points in the league (24.5 per game) and also surrenders 131 yards rushing per game. I think AD should be able to do something with that.

If you want more bold start ‘em choices at running back, look below (and I’ll even do four “other” picks instead of the usual three to compensate for making the obvious choice here), but just make sure Adrian Peterson is in your lineup this week and every other week he’s the starting running back in Minnesota.

Adrian Peterson fantasy football Week 12 projection: 125 yards rushing, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 30 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 12:

• Ahmad Bradshaw definitely needs to be in your lineup in Week 12. Jacksonville is 30th in the league giving up 12 rushing TDs this year. Brandon Jacobs, despite only getting 10 carries the last two weeks, is also a sneaky start. The Giants will lean on the run more with Nicks and Smith out.
• Look, I own BenJarvus Green-Ellis and I’ve been doubting him all year. He’s responded to those doubts with 7 TDs and a 4.3 yard average, including at least 87 yards rushing in three of the last four games. With Detroit 28th in the league in TDs given up (11) and also giving up 130.6 rushing yards per game, Green-Ellis has earned enough trust to be a top-20 back despite the presence of Danny Woodhead and the return of Fred Taylor.
• Shonn Greene has now carried the ball at least 10 times in three straight games, and at least 15 in the last two. This is a trend that I think will continue as the weather worsens. Cincinnati gives up a TD per game. I think Greene gets it this week.
• Jamaal Charles owners are undoubtedly frustrated that Thomas Jones, not Charles, got two TDs in Week 11. Charles still averaged 7.3 yards per carry on 12 carries and had 4 receptions for 38 yards. Charles is a must-start. Just remember that. (And Jones is a solid, but not slam-dunk, start in Week 12 as well.)

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (v Pittsburgh)

Yup, I’m talking about another one of my players. And to be honest, he’s been my MVP the past two weeks. Look at what FJax has done:

• v Detroit: 25 carries, 133 yards rushing, 1 TD, 6 receptions, 37 yards, 1 TD
• at Cincinnati: 21 carries, 116 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 3 receptions, 13 yards

A few relevant stats of note about the Detroit and Cincinnati run defenses: they are two of the seven teams who have given up double-digit rushing TDs this season.

Now, if you hadn’t been paying attention the last two weeks, and I had told you that the above numbers were Adrian Peterson’s and that the numbers I cited for Peterson were actually Jackson’s, you would have believed me. But no, I cited them right. Fred Jackson has been one of the best fantasy players in the entire player pool the last two weeks.

But now for the reality check:

• 10 carries, 14 yards, 2 receptions, 16 yards, 0 TDs

That was the production that Darren McFadden had against the Steelers in Week 11. Yes, the same McFadden that I told you to start and who has been as explosive as anyone in 2010. It was a nice slap-in-the-face reminder that my old adage still rings true: don’t start running backs who are facing Pittsburgh. (Trust your principles Morris!!! You idiot!)

Fred Jackson is not as individually talented as Run DMC, nor has Buffalo been nearly as adept at running the football as Oakland has been this season. That makes me very wary of FJax in Week 12.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 12 projection: 55 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 4 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 12:

• Brandon Jackson teased everyone with a two-TD performance in Week 10. He then fell back to earth with 66 total yards and no TDs in Week 11. Against an Atlanta D that has given up only three rushing TDs this season, Jackson is a guy to sit.
• Jahvid Best or Maurice Morris, whoever starts at RB for Detroit against New England should be sat. The Lions will have to take to the air against New England, and it will further neutralize their anemic running game.
• Mike Goodson is a decent option if you’re in a yardage-only league. In a TD-based league, Goodson doesn’t have nearly as much value despite two straight 100-yard performances. His offense doesn’t provide scoring chances and he faces a Cleveland D that has given up just three rushing TDs this year (though, granted, the Browns have given up one in back-to-back weeks).

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em WR: Sidney Rice, Minnesota (at Washington)

Seriously! I swear I didn’t pre-plan this to highlight my BFL team in the top-line start/sit picks. It’s just working out that way. And honestly, can you disagree with any of my picks so far?

Here is why I like Sidney Rice a lot this week:

• Brad Childress was fired this week, lifting a huge weight off the Vikings locker room. Leslie Frazier was installed as the head coach, ensuring a smooth transition, and he’s already said that Brett Favre will start in Week 12.
• The matchup is beautiful. Washington gives up 280.1 passing yards per game and has surrendered 18 TD passes in 10 games. Don’t let Week 11 fool you…their decent performance came against the petulant Vince Young and the immortal, um, Rusty Smith (who?).
• Rice got his feet wet against an outstanding Green Bay pass defense and had a respectable 18.7 yard per catch average on three receptions.

Assuming Brett Favre doesn’t retire between now and Sunday (seriously, that would chance this pick), I think this is the week to roll the dice on Sidney Rice. The return could be nice assuming the Vikings offense can get off the ice. And now I will probably pay the price…for using too many words that rhyme with Rice. (I ran out…sorry.)

Understand this: I would not start Rice over proven top-20 WRs, simply because we haven’t seen him produce a big game yet this year. So remember that these picks aren’t blanket picks, just choices I want to highlight because I think they might go against the norms or trends for the week. I probably have more confidence in Sidney than most; hence, his inclusion here.

Update: I posted my Week 12 rankings today and Sidney Rice came in at #14 ahead of “proven top-20 WRs” like DeSean Jackson and Percy Harvin. But the more I thought about that Washington matchup, and the more I thought about how much of a weight is off the Vikings’ shoulders with Childress gone, I think a big day is in order. Call it a gut feel.

Sidney Rice fantasy football Week 12 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Holy crap. I just realized I have now picked the Vikings starting RB and WR for two of my three start ‘em choices so far. This from an offense that produced three measly points in Week 11.

I just got really, really nervous.

But then I remembered that Washington gives up 24 points per game, so AD and Rice could do exactly what I predicted (two TDs and one TD, respectively) and the Vikings would still be under Washington’s scoring defense average per week.

Considering what the firing of Wade Phillips and promotion of Jason Garrett has meant in Dallas (two straight wins) I see something similar happening in Minnesota. Let’s hope so. My picks and BFL season rest on it!

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 12:

• Steve Johnson starts. Every week. Especially against a Pittsburgh team who will stuff Buffalo’s run and force Ryan Fitzpatrick to pass.
• Mario Manningham is an outstanding start choice this week. He is the lone experienced WR left for Eli Manning to throw to, and I think he gets involved early and often against Jacksonville.
• Robert Meachem scored two TDs last week and he’s the kind of speedy deep threat who can take advantage of Dallas’ weak safeties. I like him to score at least one TD on Thanksgiving Day.
• Nate Washington gets to face the Houston secondary. I don’t know who will be throwing to him – probably some guy named Rusty Smith (run Rusty, run!)  – but someone is going to put up some yardage and a TD against Houston. Washington has been the most consistent receiver in Tennessee recently, so he’s the default pick.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em WR: Terrell Owens, Cincinnati (at New York Jets)

Revis Island is back in full effect. Since the Jets’ bye in Week 7, here are the numbers of the #1 WRs against New York:

• Week 8: Greg Jennings – 6 receptions, 81 yards, 0 TDs
• Week 9: Calvin Johnson – 1 reception, 13 yards, 0 TDs
• Week 10: Mohamed Massaqoui – 2 receptions, 8 yards, 1 TD
• Week 11: Andre Johnson – 4 receptions, 32 yards, 0 TDs

Now look, I haven’t watched much of these games. so I don’t know if Revis was blanketing the above WRs all game or if it was more of a team effort. You know what? I don’t care. These are the clear #1 receivers on their respective teams and they accounted for 13 receptions, about 140 yards, and 1 TD in four weeks.

Since Owens is one of the most targeted WRs in the NFL, and has been better this year than Chad Ochocinco, I expect him to get the same treatment as the guys above. That probably won’t end well for T.O.  Plus, Owens’ old legs are slowing down a bit. He has just 7 receptions for 127 yards and a TD over the last two weeks.

Terrell Owens fantasy football Week 12 projection: 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 12:

• I love Hines Ward as football player, but he has just 9 catches and less than 100 yards over the last four weeks. Good matchup or not, Ward continues to tumble down the WR ranks.
• Steve Smith of Carolina is barely a pedestrian receiver this year. While Cleveland’s pass D will give it up through the air, do you have any confidence in whoever Carolina trots out at QB to take advantage?
• Randy Moss. Sit him. Now, I know what you’re thinking: but Jerod, he’s facing HOUSTON!? And you’re right, he is. That’s why I recommended Nate Washington above. Moss also was facing Washington last week, nearly as bad through the air as Houston, and he did nothing. Until Moss catches more than one pass, the onus is now on him to prove that he has a fantasy pulse. I don’t care if he’s opening things up for Chris Johnson. He’s not catching balls. Until he does, sit him…even against Houston.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em TE: Benjamin Watson, Cleveland (v Carolina)

The Browns still don’t have a true #1 WR. Sadly for Colt McCoy, Benjamin Watson is the teams’ leading receiver in terms of yards (Peyton Hillis is #1 in receptions). With such a dearth of outside options, we know that the hobbled McCoy or whoever is playing QB for Cleveland will look to the tight end early and often.

For the record, here is what tight ends have done against Carolina the last three weeks:

• David Thomas: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs (Jeremy Shockey added 1 reception for 7 yards and a TD)
• Kellen Winslow: 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD
• Todd Heap: 5 receptions, 69 yards

That’s pretty consistent production against the Panthers, and keep in mind that those teams have plenty of options ahead of the tight end in their offense. I expect a nice day from Watson in Week 12 out of necessity and because of the matchup.

Benjamin Watson fantasy football Week 12 projection: 6 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 12:

• I am stubbornly sticking with Vernon Davis. His talent is so great that I can overlook the two 1-receptions games he has sandwiched around his nice-and-should-have-been-better Week 10 performance. With the 49ers absolutely desperate and playing a weak Arizona defense in Week 12, I think Davis has a much better game. (If not, I’ll give up on him…I swear!)
• Brandon Pettigrew needs to be in your lineup as long as Shaun Hill is the QB. I’ve said it all year and I’ll keep saying it and the stats will keep backing me up.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em TE: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (v Cincinnati)

See? I’m not completely stubborn. Despite touting this guy for week after week as a solid start and good bounceback candidate, Keller has consistently disappointed me. Over the last four weeks he has produced an awful 11 receptions for 136 yards and 0 TDs. That’s pathetic.

Cincinnati is no great defense, so Keller isn’t a horrible play, but he’s the 5th or 6th option for Mark Sanchez now that Santonio Holmes has emerged as a go-to guy, and there simply aren’t enough targets to go around.

Dustin Keller fantasy football Week 12 projection: 3 receptions, 35 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 12:

• Everyone got really excited about Anthony Fasano after he recorded a 100-yard game two weeks ago. Then he reminded everyone that he sucks with his 1 reception stinker in Week 12. Considering his overall lack of talent and the QB issues in Miami, I’d stay away.
• Despite his stellar Week 10 performance, three of Jermaine Gresham‘s last four performances have seen him catch three or fewer passes for 33 or fewer yards. With the Jets on the schedule this week, I’d stay away.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em Defense: Cleveland Browns (v Carolina)

Did you know that the Browns are in the top 10 in the NFL in scoring defense? It’s true. They’re tied with Tampa Bay for 10th giving up just 20.6 points per game. Seeing as how the Panthers average just 11.7 points per game (4.3 fewer than the 31st ranked team) this is an obvious arbitrage opportunity if Cleveland remains unowned in your league.

I really shouldn’t have to say anything else.

Cleveland Browns Defense / Special Teams unit fantasy football Week 12 projection: 13 or fewer points, 2 TOs, 2 sacks, and a better than average chance of a defensive TD

Other sit ‘em Defense / Special Teams units:

• You have to like the New York Jets against Cincinnati. Carson Palmer enjoys throwing it to the other team and Cedric Benson likes to fumble. Plus, the Bengals just suck balls in general.
• The Philadelphia Eagles lead the league in INTs. Chicago’s quarterback is INT-machine Jay Cutler. What’s not to like?

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em Defense: New England Patriots (at Detroit)

Did you know that the Lions are in the top half of the league in scoring offense? They are averaging a solid 23.4 points per game. The New England Patriots are in the bottom third in the league in points given up per game (24.2). Based on the numbers, I’d say there is a solid chance the Lions score somewhere around 23-24 points.

The fact that they are at home helps, as does the excitement and motivation of playing on Thanksgiving Day in what amounts to their 2010 Super Bowl. I like the Lions to make this close and make the Patriots defense a below average choice in Week 12.

New England Patriots Defense / Special Teams unit fantasy football Week 12 projection: 23 or more points, 2 TOs, 1 sack

Other sit ‘em Defense / Special Teams units for Week 12:

• Tampa Bay may have shut out San Francisco on the road in Week 11, but the 49ers have the second-most anemic offense in the NFL. Baltimore is much better, especially at home.
• I realize Dallas has scored a D/ST touchdown in the each of the last two games, but predicting those is a futile effort. New Orleans has the kind of offense that can destroy Dallas’ defense (which is very weak at safety), so the probable points given up are not worth the outside chance of another defensive/special teams TD.

The comment section awaits your questions. Make ‘em good ones! We all need wins this week, so let’s go get ‘em together.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

I enjoyed Week 10.

Not only did I hit more than I missed with my start/sit picks and comment advice in Week 10, but my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League also exploded for an easy and much-needed victory over the sublimely named Sweaty Ditkas.

What I loved best about my win in BFL2010 is that the two guys who carried me were unheralded players that I recommended to a lot of you in Week 10: Fred Jackson and Mike Thomas. There is nothing I love more than when I follow my own advice and it works out…because that means it’s working out for many of you too.

Just like these Week 11 start em, sit em picks will. (At least, that’s the gameplan…)

Before we delve into the Week 11 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then recap of how I did with my Week 10 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 10 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: David Garrard, Marshawn Lynch,
• Start em misses: Steve Johnson, Marcedes Lewis, Minnesota Vikings D
• Sit em hits: Brett Favre, LT and Shonn Greene, Brandon Marshall, Baltimore Ravens D
• Sit em misses: Jermaine Gresham

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 11.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em QB: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (v Houston)

Look, you might consider it cheap or obvious to keep picking the QB facing Houston’s defense as my start ‘em QB. And maybe it is. But you know what else it is? Correct.

Last week I told you to start David Garrard, not a guy you automatically start each week, and he went out and threw for 342 yards and 2 TDs. He only had 7 incomplete passes. Sure, one of his TDs was that fluky game-winning Hail Mary toss, but guess what? Such a completion is not so fluky against the worst pass defense in memory.

Houston has now given up 22 TD passes in just 9 games, and they have only intercepted 5 passes. For good measure, they also relinquish 300+ passing yards per game.

Enter Mark Sanchez and the Jets passing game.

After a solid start to the year (8 TDs, 0 picks through five games) Sanchez has struggled recently (2 TDs, 5 INTs during Weeks 6-9). Then he came through with a nice effort in the Jets’ OT win over the Browns in Week 10, tossing two TD passes (plus an INT). He also passed for 299 yards and threw 44 passes; and that attempt total is what makes me like Sanchez this week.

Despite the Jets being a “running team” and Sanchez struggling recently, he has thrown 44, 39, and 38 passes in the Jets’ last few games. If he throws the ball even close to that much against Houston, the numbers suggest he’s a virtual lock for 250+ yards and 2 TDs, and that’s a conservative estimate.

Until Houston holds an opposing QB to stats that you wouldn’t have wanted for your fantasy team, keep playing the QB they are facing. With Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and LT out of the backfield, Sanchez has weapons. In Week 11 he also has a perfect matchup.

Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 11 projection: 295 passing yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 11:

• Peyton Manning has thrown one TD and two INTs over the past two weeks. Well guess what? He’s still averaging nearly two TD passes per game this year, rarely gets picked off, and has a nice matchup against an inconsistent pass D. Do not sit Peyton.
• The Giants got drilled by Dallas in Week 10, and Eli Manning threw two more INTs, but he also threw for 373 yards and two TDs. Eli now has 19 TD passes this season and has thrown at least two five straight games. Philly is a middle-of-the-pack pass D, so play Eli.
• The Cleveland Browns have given up 19 TD passes in 9 games this year. Though David Garrard isn’t a sexy name, he has taken advantage of good matchups this year. His run of at least two TD passes in four of his last five games is proof of this. He’s a solid start option this week, especially at home

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at St. Louis)

Matt Ryan has thrown 7 TDs and just one INT over the last three weeks. Knowing that, you are probably wondering why in the world I’d tell you to sit him, and against St. Louis to boot.

Well here is why:

• Ryan has thrown 5 TDs and 2 INTs in his four road games this year. That’s not terrible, but it pales in comparison to his 11 TDs in five home games.
• The St. Louis Rams have given up only 10 TD passes in their 9 games this season. They also play much better defense at home than they do on the road.

Ryan is not necessarily a bad play. He has Roddy White to throw to, and most likely will throw a TD or two, but with the full player pool available I just don’t think Ryan is a top-12 option. He’s been nothing more than a mediocre fantasy QB on the road during his career, and against a defense that plays significantly better in its home stadium, that’s a trend worth respecting.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 11 projection: 235 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 11:

• You’re watching Brett Favre throw INT after INT right? Against Green Bay in Week 11, he stays on your bench.
• Josh Freeman had yet another good game in Week 10, but I don’t think he’s a top-12 option in Week 11. Playing at San Francisco’s improving D, Freeman could struggle to put up more than one TD.
• Jay Cutler had a solid day in Week 10, throwing 3 TDs (but also two INTs). The Dolphins will give up some big passing plays and TDs, but they also keep the yardage low and can rush the passer. I’m not a big fan of Cutler on Thursday night.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em RB: Felix Jones, Dallas (v Detroit)

Few players have fluctuated in my mind more this season than Felix Jones. I thought he was a great mid-round sleeper pick in the preseason (though I wasn’t buying the 2nd/3rd round hype), then I stayed relatively confident in him through the season’s first 6 weeks, and then I finally soured enough on Felix that I dropped him in every league I had him.

And now I wish I had him back, at least for this week.

The firing of Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett’s insistence on discipline and accountability seemed to light a fire under the Cowboys in Week 10. This was definitely evident with Jones. With 17 touches (3 receptions), Felix accumulated 136 yards and a TD. That is an excellent day at the office, and what we all expected from Felix before the season started.

In Week 11, Jones and the Cowboys play the Detroit Lions…the same Detroit Lions that have lost 1,000 straight games on the road (only a slight exaggeration); the same Detroit Lions that give up 130.4 yards rushing per game and at least 1 TD; and, yes, the same Detroit Lions that allowed Fred Jackson to do his Adrian Peterson impression last week (170 total yards, 2 TDs).

Understand this: I’m not jumping on the Felix Jones bandwagon for the rest of the season. Dallas’ O-Line still sucks and Jones still remains an inconsistent talent, but I saw life in those legs again last week, and the matchup is very favorable. This is the week to play Felix.

Felix Jones fantasy football Week 11 projection: 60 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 55 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 11:

• Any healthy San Diego running backs are good starts this week by virtue of their matchup against the Broncos. Ryan Mathews has been dinged up, so check his injury status, but I like Mike Tolbert this week and I even like Darren Sproles in deeper leagues.
• I know that Darren McFadden is facing Pittsburgh this week, which is usually an auto-sit, but Cedric Benson scored a TD against the Steelers in Week 9 and the Pats rushed for 100+ yards against them in Week 10. It seems like injuries may be catching up to Pittsburgh, and McFadden has been among the very best running backs this year. Keep him in there. He’s earned that kind of trust.
• Don’t question playing Jamaal Charles anymore. He’s a top 10 back, especially now that he’s getting the bulk of the carries. Against Arizona? Oh yeah. The Cardinals made Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch fantasy-relevant last week. Even Thomas Jones has some value this week.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em RB: Jahvid Best, Detroit (at Dallas)

This one really isn’t hard.

Realize the following about Jahvid Best, who came storming out of the gates with 5 TDs during the season’s first two weeks:

• He hasn’t scored since.
• He has not surpassed 59 yards rushing since.
• He’s averaging less than 4.0 yards per rush.

There just isn’t much to like about Best right now. If he couldn’t produce last week, against the leagues’ worst run D (Buffalo), then when will he produce?

The Cowboys held both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to less than 4.0 yards per carry in Week 10 and kept both out of the end zone. On the season, the Cowboys have allowed only 6 rushing TDs. With Jahvid Best still perhaps not totally recovered from his toe injury, and his Lions having to play at Dallas, now is the time to sit him (unless you’re in a deep PPR league).

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 11 projection: 45 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 11:

• Okay, I’m not going to tell you to sit Michael Turner, per se, but I do think you should consider it if you have a deep stable of backs. Turner only has 1 TD on the road this year and faces a Rams D that has given up just 3 rushing TDs all year and that plays much better at home.
• I know that everyone is excited about Reggie Bush‘s return to the Saints lineup, but I still would not consider playing him unless you’re in a PPR league.
• Don’t get too pumped up about Cadillac Williams scoring a TD last week. He only had 7 touches and faces a tough SF run D in Week 11.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Arizona)

It is my hope that every consistent reader of MSF Fantasy Sports would feel comfortable saying the following about me: “Jerod is not afraid nor ashamed to admit when he is wrong.” I think if you are going to put yourself out there as a fantasy football analyst, it is a prerequisite that you be able to admit mistakes, because they happen often.

One of my biggest errors this season is being late to the Dwayne Bowe party. Sure, I feel like I had good reasons to withhold my trust, but I know that I’ve told people sit him during weeks when Bowe has exploded. Well no more. Dwayne Bowe has 9 TDs in 9 games and has now made a believer out of me.

Specific to Week 11, Bowe and the Chiefs face an Arizona defense that gives up nearly 270 passing yards per game and 1.5+ TDs per game. For perspective, Big Mike Williams from Seattle has looked like an All Pro against the Cardinals in two games this year. Dwayne Bowe is much better than Mike Williams, and I expect Bowe to follow his anomalous, garbage time induced 13-catch, 186-yard performance with another solid, though less spectacular, outing in Week 11.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 11 projection: 6 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 11:

• Dez Bryant is a top 20 WR from here on out and a weekly must start, okay? Okay. Wow, what a talent. Now his QB and play-caller are clearly committed to getting the ball in his hands. Smart.
• Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are facing Houston. That really should be all I need to say.
• Everyone needs to stop sleeping on Danny Amendola. He’s scored in three straight weeks and has an ultra-accurate QB throwing to him. This is a top-30 WR, easy.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em WR: Big Mike Williams, Seattle (at New Orleans)

I already know that tons of you are going to ask me about Big Mike Williams (that’s now the new way to differentiate between he and the Better Mike Williams in Tampa Bay) and with good reason. Big Mike had an 11-catch, 145 yard outburst in Week 10. This was his third game in 2010 with 10 or more catches.

The problem? Two of those 10-catch games came against Arizona, which has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. In no other game but one has Big Mike caught more than four passes. That is the definition of feast or famine.

In Week 11, Big Mike faces a New Orleans defense that has been very good against the pass. The Saints lead the league in both passing yards against (166. 3 yards) and TDs against (6). While Big Mike did a nice job against the Bears’ very good pass D in Week 6 (10 catches, 123 yards), his six worthless weeks speak louder to me than his three good ones…especially against the Saints.

Big Mike Williams fantasy football Week 11 projection: 3 catches, 31 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 11:

• I did not like Brandon Marshall in Week 10 against Tennessee and I definitely don’t like him against the Bears in Week 11. Until the Dolphins prove they can get Marshall in the end zone, I’m not going to trust him. He’s not a terrible play, but he’s not a slam-dunk #2 WR anymore.
• I know that Sidney Rice will be back in Week 11, and everyone is excited about his return, but the Packers have given up only 9 TDs all year, and Rice has yet to play a down. I’d prefer to avoid this matchup and give him a week to test the hip and re-acclimate to game speed.
• Wes Welker “exploded” for 8 receptions and 89 yards in Week 10. I say “exploded” because Mr. PPR hadn’t caught more than 4 passes since Week 6. Welker still hasn’t scored since Week 2 though, and faces an Indy team that he has not had great success against in the past (24 receptions, 190 yards, 1 TD in four career games).

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (at Dallas)

I do not like a lot of Detroit guys this week, especially because they are on the road. However, because the Cowboys have not covered tight ends well at all this year, I think Pettigrew is an outstanding choice. Consider that Kevin Boss went 5-81 with a TD against the Cowboys in Week 10 and two games prior Marcedes Lewis caught two TDs.

With Shaun Hill at QB for Detroit, who clearly targets Pettigrew more than Matthew Stafford, I expect a big game from the second-year emerging star.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 11 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 11:

• In Week 10, Troy Smith remembered that he has one of the best receiving weapons in football at his disposal in Vernon Davis. VD had a spectacular TD wiped off the board because of a penalty; otherwise his 4-catch, 79-yard day would have been outstanding. Expect more goodness against Tampa Bay.
• Jacob Tamme has not caught fewer than 6 passes or 64 yards in any of the three games he’s started. He also has two TDs. He’s a must start. Trust it.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (at San Francisco)

I know that K2 caught his first TD of the season in Week 10, but he had only four receptions in the previous two games combined. While San Francisco has been susceptible to the pass this year (13 TDs), most of the damage has been done by WRs.

The 49ers have athletic linebackers who can cover tight ends, and with a full player pool to choose from Winslow just hasn’t proven himself enough to be a solid start option.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 11 projection: 4 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 11:

• Lots of people are going nuts about Rob Gronkowski after his 3-TD outburst in Week 10. If we know anything about New England, it’s that different guys step up each week. I actually like Aaron Hernandez more in Week 10, a guy whose athleticism may help him duplicate what Jermaine Gresham did to the Colts in Week 10.
• Anthony Fasano had a real nice Week 10 with 100+ yards and a TD. Facing Chicago in Week 11, I don’t expect any kind of reprise of those numbers.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em Defense: Baltimore Ravens (at Carolina)

The Baltimore Ravens do not have an elite defense anymore, not from a fantasy standpoint nor a real-life standpoint. The Ravens do, however, still have play-makers like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata that can take advantage of good matchups.

With Tony Pike likely to start for Carolina if fellow rookie Jimmy Clausen is not recovered from his concussion, you know that the hungry, rested Ravens will be ready to tee off. This is a no-brainer.

Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Week 11 projection: 13 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 3 TOs, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 11:

• Kansas City‘s defense was embarrassed by the Broncos in Week 10. Considering Todd Haley’s fire and Romeo Crennel’s success as a defensive coordinator, I think this young and talented  unit rebounds against Derek Anderson and the Fightin’ Larry Fitzgeralds in Week 11.
• The Seahawks are playing on the road, have an injured QB with a sucky backup, and will face the best pass defense in football. Yes, those New Orleans Saints are a must-start defense right now.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em Defense: Washington Redskins (at Tennessee)

I am writing this while watching the Monday Night Football game between the Eagles and Redskins. As we speak, the scoreboard reads 35-0 and there are still 14:00+ minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Umm…

I know that Washington has play-makers like DeAngelo Hall who will get picks and score touchdowns, but those same play-makers also give up lots of big plays and TDs. I don’t trust Washington anymore and would be fine with you dropping them at this point, even against a team with QB turmoil like Tennessee.

Washington Redskins fantasy football Week 11 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 11:

• The Cleveland Browns defense has been better as of late, but don’t get cute. This isn’t a defense that gets lots of sacks or turnovers, and the Jaguars offense is, dare I say it, damn close to a juggernaut right now.
• Stay away from the Indy and New England defenses this week. It’s Peyton Manning v Tom Brady. Expect points, and lots of ‘em.

Okay, there you have it. The Week 11 start em, sit em pick and projections are in the books. Now the comment section awaits your questions.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start em, Sit em Projections, Roster Advice, Q&A

All week, I told you to start guys like DeAngelo Williams, Bruce Gradkowski, and Dustin Keller. And boy did all three produce well. Unfortunately, none of them were top-line picks.

While predicting Peyton Hillis and Vernon Davis to have strong days proved accurate, I whiffed on Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan. Had I flipped them, I would have been in good shape!

Such is the frustration of try to predict the unpredictable. But I love the challenge. So let’s quickly review my Week 4 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks and then move on to Week 5.

• Start ‘em hits: Peyton Hillis, Vernon Davis
• Start ‘em misses: Matt Ryan, Cincinnati D, Santana Moss
• Sit ‘em hits: Jahvid Best, Todd Heap
• Sit ‘em misses: Carson Palmer, Derrick Mason & TJ Houshmandzadeh

Still to play: Miami Dolphins

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

• Note that the following teams have byes in Week 5: Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks
• Click to see our complete Week 5 rankings.
  

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Houston)

Is it really as easy as just picking whichever QB is playing against the Houston Texans? Why yes, it certainly appears that it is.

The Texans were by the far the worst defense against the pass coming into Week 4, and so far as I write this on Sunday afternoon, Bruce Gradkowski – Bruce Gradkowski! - is 10-14 for 119 yards and a TD, and he hasn’t even completed a pass to Louis Murphy yet. (Note: Gradkowski finished with 278 yards and 2 TDs.)

Even without seeing what Eli does against Chicago tonight, I’ll gladly pencil him into the start ‘em spot. (Update: Eli threw for close to 200 yards but no TDs.) He’s thrown too many INTs and really made some bone-headed decisions, but he’s a good QB with a good receiver corps and the matchup is too delicious to ignore.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 5 projection: 315 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 5:

• Friends, you know I don’t like recommending rookies. However, I love Sam Bradford, and I especially love him this week. Bradford now has two 2-TD performances in his first four games as a starter, and that’s without a legitimate #1 receiver. In Week 5 he gets the Lions’ secondary, which just isn’t very good.
• Tony Romo‘s last time out was very productive, though it was against the Texans. In Week 5 he gets a Titans secondary that had been pretty good the first two weeks but that gave up 300+ yards and two TDs to Kyle Orton in Week 5. I like Romo for about the same.
• What else can be said about Mark Sanchez? He has put his awful Week 1 performance behind him and become one of the most productive QBs in fantasy with 8 TDs and no INTs over the last three weeks. I don’t expect him to continue at this pace, but the Jets face a very good Minnesota run D that will force them to pass. That doesn’t seem so scary for Jets fans anymore.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em QB: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (vs Tampa Bay)

I guess you could say I’m stubborn.

I picked Palmer as my sit ‘em QB last week, then he promptly went out and torched the Cleveland pass D. In hindsight, after seeing what Baltimore’s then-crappy pass attack did to Cleveland in Week 3, I probably should not have been so bold in my assessment of their ability to rebound and limit Palmer.

However, I do think the Buccaneers can limit Palmer and the Bengals.

Not only is Tampa Bay coming off of a bye, but they are playing very good pass D this year. Through three games, the Bucs are giving up less than 200 yards per game and have picked off 6 passes against only 5 TDs; and two of those TDs were by Pittsburgh on plays that easily could have been incompletions with the coverage Tampa Bay had.

But this pick is more about my lack of faith in Palmer. He has been trending downward for years and I simply don’t have faith in him as a consistent top-12 starter. I don’t think Palmer will be terrible, but if you’re thinking of starting him I challenge you to see if someone like Sam Bradford or Mark Sanchez is available. I’d start either over Palmer this week.

Carson Palmer fantasy football Week 5 projection: 215 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 5:

• Brett Favre. He’s at the Jets and Sidney Rice still isn’t there. Plus, Revis might be back. I don’t like it, even though the Jets have given up more passing yards this year that we would have expected.
• I’m not particularly high on Jay Cutler. He’s not an awful play, but Carolina’s D has played much better over the past two weeks. If they held Drew Brees in check, which they did, that doesn’t make me very confident in putting Cutler in there against them.
• I know I usually have three extra QB it ‘ems, but no one really stands out. Anyone else I put would be rather obvious, so just pose any specific questions in the comment section.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em RB: Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, Kansas City (at Indianapolis)

Coming into Week 4, the Colts were 28th in the NFL against the rush (141.3 yards per game) and they had given up 3 TDs (though, granted, all came in Week 1 against the Texans). As I write this it’s halftime of the Colts game against the Jags, and Jacksonville has 124 rushing yards and two rushing TDs. (Note: they finished with 174 yards on the ground.) Remember that neither the Giants nor the Broncos run the ball especially well, so Indy’s seeming improvement against the run was more of a mirage than a trend.

Kansas City, however, is a very good running team and I think both of their backs have value this week. Jamaal Charles is a big play threat and the Colts give up big plays on the ground. Thomas Jones is the one who gets the most carries, and the old man will be rested after the bye week. With Matt Cassel still struggling and the Colts very good against the pass, Todd Haley will undoubtedly want to ride his backs in this one. Take advantage.

Jamaal Charles fantasy football Week 5 projection: 75 yards rushing, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

Thomas Jones fantasy football Week 5 projection: 70 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 5:

• See what I mean about DeAngelo Williams? Just be patient people. He finally scored in Week 4 and I like him to have another solid day against the Bears, despite their strong start against the run this year. Much of that has to do with matchups and Williams is still a guy who needs to be started. His teammate Jonathan Stewart has now scored two weeks in a row and isn’t a horrible start either if you’re hurt by the bye week.
• I know that you are probably frustrated by Cedric Benson‘s up and down production so far this year. I know I expected more out of him in Week 4. The Bengals play the Bucs this week, however, a team that is much better against the pass than they are the run. I think Benson can take advantage.
• The demise of Mike Tolbert was vastly overrated…by me. I thought Ryan Mathews would get more touches once he got healthy, but Tolbert dominated the first half against the Cardinals and ended up with 7 more carries than the rookie on the day. Oakland is an inviting matchup in Week 5. Both guys have strong value.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (vs Minnesota)

Look, I’m excited about the LT resurgence too…just not in Week 5.

LaDainian has lit up New England, Miami, and Buffalo the last three weeks…none of whom have a run defense that I’d rank in the top 15 of the NFL. In Week 5, LT and the Jets face off against a Minnesota D that is fresh off the bye and that allowed just one rushing TD through the season’s first three weeks.

Tomlinson isn’t a terrible play, but keep in mind that he isn’t a featured back and will top out in the 15-17 touch range in a game like this. While he still has a nose for the end zone, and is a decent flex option, I think the Jets will need to beat the Vikings through the air, rather than on the ground. With Tomlinson splitting carries with Shonn Greene, that limits what you can expect from him.

LaDainian Tomlinson fantasy football Week 5 projection: 60 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 5:

• Well, after having a good fantasy day in Week 4, CJ Spiller was limited to three touches in Week 5. He’s so talented, but that doesn’t matter if he’s not touching the ball.
• Clinton Portis and Ryan Torain are splitting carries right now and they have a tough matchup in Week 5. I’d prefer to stay away from both.
• I’m not terribly high on Jahvid Best this week. He has not been as good as his 5 TDs suggest and St. Louis has been better against the run than you might think. If you have two good alternatives, I’d probably go with them. Best is more of a flex-value play this week.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em WR: Mark Clayton, St. Louis (at Detroit)

You saw above that I like Sam Bradford this week against the Lions’ not-so-good secondary. It stands to reason then that I also like his receivers. And Mark Clayton is clearly Bradford’s go-to guy. Other than Week 2, Clayton has caught at least 5 balls and 72 yards in every game. And in Week 2, Clayton scored 2 TDs despite only catching two passes.

The Lions held Aaron Rodgers in check from a yardage standpoint in Week 4, but they still relinquished 3 TDs though the air. That brings their season total to 8, or two per game. If Sam Bradford tosses a couple of TD scores, as I expect he will, chances are good that Clayton will be on the receiving end of at least one of them.

Clayton is a very solid guy for the rest of the year. Grab him if he is somehow still on the waiver wire in your league.

Mark Clayton fantasy football Week 5 projection: 5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 5:

• It pains me to say this…and I mean it really pains me to  say this…but Braylon Edwards clearly has a solid rapport with Mark Sanchez. Mr. New York Essence (and Mr. DUI) has now caught a TD pass in three consecutive games and is flashing the talent he showed for Cleveland in 2007. I might puke from typing this, but he’s pretty much a must-start right now.
• Marques Colston owners, I know you’re frustrated. Don’t give up hope. He’s still the option you want on the Saints receiving corps, and Arizona is a very inviting matchup. In fact, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson aren’t bad options this week either.
• Brandon Lloyd had another 100-yard receiving game in Week 4. Eddie Royal also had a solid outing and has now caught at least 4 balls in every game this year. The Broncos face Baltimore’s pass D, which has been outstanding this year, but I think that’s the function of who they’ve played. Denver won’t care and will chuck it around the field. Lloyd and Royal are separating themselves as the two Broncos WRs you want.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (at Indianapolis)

You know I like the KC running backs this week, but I am not a big fan of the Chiefs’ receivers. Part of it is the matchup and the other part of it is how bad Matt Cassel has looked so far this year.

Dwayne Bowe has just 7 catches and one TD on the season. This comes on the heels of a sophomore season that saw him produce almost exactly half of the very strong output from his rookie campaign. I think Bowe may be a bit overrated right now because of how strong he came out of the gates as a rookie. I don’t trust him and I cannot recommend that you trust him either.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 5 projection: 3 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 5:

• T.O. went off in Week 4. Good for him. He still has three weeks in which he wasn’t worthy of being a fantasy starter. Against a pretty good pass D I’d rather have T.O. on my bench, assuming I have some decent options.
• Steve Smith had to leave the Panthers’ Week 4 game early because of an injury. He only had two receptions and 11 yards at the time. Even if he’s healthy, there are serious doubts about Jimmy Clausen’s ability to get him the ball.
• The 49ers did get the ball to Michael Crabtree more, but everything was relatively short. Right now, San Francisco just doesn’t score enough and doesn’t put their receivers in a position to make big plays. Philadelphia has a good enough secondary that I’m not ready to remove the shackles from Crabtree quite yet.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (vs St. Louis)

Over the last three weeks, the second-year tight end has: 7 catches for 108 yards; 6 catches for 44 yards; and, 8 catches for 91 yards. He does not have a touchdown, but any of those games would provide you with adequate production from the TE spot.

Pettigrew is clearly a favorite of Shaun Hill, who continues to start for Matthew Stafford. Even if Stafford plays in Week 5, he has seen Pettigrew’s production and surely will keep him involved. If Pettigrew ever becomes a red zone target, he could be a consistent top 10 tight end. Against St. Louis, I think Pettrigrew can continue to catch 6-8 passes and provide value even if he doens’t hit paydirt.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 5 projection: 7 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 5:

• If Michael Vick is out for an extended period of time, Kevin Kolb becomes the starter and Brent Celek immediately becomes a top 10 tight end option again.
• The Packers gave up 8 catches and 91 yards to the tight end in Week 4. Chris Cooley caught a TD pass from Donovan McNabb in Week 4, his second of the year. Cooley has been consistent this year and is a solid start candidate.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em TE: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee)

Jason Witten was once a top notch fantasy tight end, but do you realize that he has just 6 TDs in his last 39 games? Wow. That’s not very efficient production.

Now, in a PPR league, Witten is a decent choice. He will almost always get you 5-7 catches and at least provide some value. But with guys like Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew, and Jermaine Greshman emerging as solid plays at tight end, Witten’s days as a must start are over.

Add in the fact that Tony Romo has TD makers in Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Dez Bryant on the outside, plus the fact that Tennessee has been decent against the pass this year, and Witten is a prime candidate for the pine this week.

Jason Witten fantasy football Week 5 projection: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 5:

• Todd Heap is very similar to Jason Witten. He’s older, and still a good bet for 4-5 catches per week, but the ceiling is very low.
• Kellen Winslow doesn’t have more than 4 catches in a game this year. He’s not an awful option, especially since Cincy’s D gave up a TD to the Browns’ tight end in Week 4, but I bet you can do better. Like Witten and Heap, don’t let Winslow’s reputation blind you to the reality of his current production.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em D/ST: Chicago Bears (at Carolina)

While I do think DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have some value this week, the Panthers’ anemic passing attack means that Julius Peppers and the Bears’ D could have a very productive day.

Jimmy Clausen actually did a decent job of keeping Carolina competitive in Week 4, but he’s a rookie, and a rookie who isn’t ready to be a starting QB in the NFL. Given how well Chicago’s D has played to start the season, I like the odds of the Bears getting you 10+ points at a minimum in Week 5.

Chicago Bears D/ST fantasy football Week 5 projection: 14 or less points, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 5:

• Philadelphia faces a San Francisco offense that just isn’t explosive at all. It should be a solid week for the Eagles.
• Dallas is rested, doing a good job against the run this year, and facing a Titans offense that is a mixed bag based on which Vince Young shows up.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em D/ST: Washington Redskins (vs Green Bay)

Washington’s offense did a nice job in Week 4 against the Eagles, but that was with Michael Vick missing the second half. Washington has been inconsistent all year and that does not bode well against a Packers offense that can put up 22 points even in a week when they’re not clicking, as happened in Week 4 against the Lions (6 of their 28 points came on an INT return).

Washington Redskins D/ST fantasy football Week 5 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 0 TOs

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 5:

• I’m not particularly high on the Colts D this week. I think the rested Chiefs will be able to run on them.
• Baltimore’s pass D is not as good as it’s looked so far this year. Denver has the commitment to the pass to exploit this. The Ravens aren’t a terrible option, but I bet you can do better.

The comment section awaits your questions. I’ll be here all week. Let’s all get some wins in Week 5.

Monday Morning Observations: Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Steve Breaston, and more

As I’ll try to do every Monday morning, here is a smorgasbord of quick hit observations after a full slate of Sunday games.

If I’m a Tony Romo owner, and I am in one keeper league, I am both encouraged and concerned by what I saw last night.

I’m encouraged because Miles Austin looks as good as ever, Dez Bryant is talented and involved in the gameplan, and Roy Williams actually made a tough catch before getting drilled. I’m concerned, however, because the Cowboys’ offensive line is awful and they are inept once they get in the red zone. And if I had to weigh the two feelings, I’m probably a little more concerned than encouraged.

Arian Foster owners should temper their expectations a little bit because they just experience the best fantasy day he’ll ever have, but we now have one more piece of evidence pointing to Foster being the real deal and a weekly start at RB.

I would not overreact to Frank Gore‘s rough day against Seattle. He’s the focal point of the offense, and the six receptions are encouraging. I would, however, react to Michael Crabtree‘s terrible showing (2 receptions, 12 yards). I can already tell you he’ll be my “sit ‘em” WR for this week as the rust from playing no preseason games was evident.

David Garrard will always try to lull you in with the random 3 TD performance, which he did twice last year. Don’t get overly excited. Unfortunately, he only threw 9 TDs in the other 14 games; and the Jaguars were playing Denver, remember.

We all thought the Seahawks backfield rotation was a bit more clear after Julius Jones was cut and Justin Forsett was named the starter. Well…not so much. The Seahawks re-signed Jones and then split the carries 7-8-6 between Forsett, Jones, and Leon Washington, respectively. This could be a weekly merry-go-round.

If the Browns continue to display their abject hate for Jerome Harrison next week, against the team he torched for 286 yards in 2009, then it’s time to start getting very worried. Until then, resist the urge.

How can you not be encouraged by Matt Forte‘s first day in Mike Martz’s system? Not only did Forte get 17 carries (which he could only turn into 50 yards thanks to his porous O-Line) but he also caught 7 passes for 151 yards and 2 TDs. And while Forte has historically owned the Lions, I don’t think Week 1 was a fluke.

Until further notice, I wouldn’t start anyone on the Washington offense expect Chris Cooley. Dallas has a really good defense, but the Redskins also need some time to gel.

If you own any offensive players on Carolina, I think it’s a good time to get your finger near the panic button. Don’t push it yet; it’s only Week 1, but seeing Matt Moore lay an egg against the Giants, then get hurt, means that there could be more days of 237 total yards and only one TD in Carolina’s future. On the other hand, the Panthers’ QB struggles could also mean they simply chuck the passing game and start pounding DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Those two combined for 21 carries in Week 1. My prediction is that number is their lowest combined carry total of the year.

Michael Vick is back to tempt us all, including his coach in real life. If you own Kevin Kolb, it goes without saying that Vick is a must-own handcuff. In deep or 2 QB leagues, Vick is also a very intriguing add this week. Certainly he has value next week if he starts, and you may just want to speculate here on the off chance that he eventually takes over this Eagles’ offense.

The discouraging news for Brandon Marshall owners in Week 1 is that he didn’t get into the endzone and accumulated only 53 yards. The good news is that Buffalo is very good against the pass yet Marshall was still able to hook up with Chad Henne eight times. Marshal will have many bigger days and will be PPR gold this season, like he always is.

See what I mean about C.J. Spiller being hit or miss? Incredibly Spiller accounted for only 14 total yards and still came close to fellow rookie Jahvid Best’s total for Detroit. The difference is that Best was able to score on two short TD runs, which is why I’ve liked Best’s value more as a weekly start. He won’t be as explosive, and you cannot count on two TDs or even one every week, but Best will get more such opportunities because the Lions’ offense is better (especially once Matthew Stafford returns).

One question you don’t need to ask anymore: should I start Hakeem Nicks? The answer is yes. He will have a Plaxico-like season this year.

I was wrong about Steve Breaston and Derek Anderson not being able to hook up consistently. While Larry Fitzgerald caught the touchdown, Breaston became Anderson’s security blanket, catching 7 passes for 132 yards. I should have remembered how often Anderson looked to Joe Jurevicius during his Pro Bowl 2007 season. Looks like Breaston could fill that role in a more explosive way here in 2010.

Wes Welker is back. I don’t regret telling you to take a wait-and-see approach with his knee in Week 1, but know that we’ve waited and seen…get him in your lineup and leave him there. And yes, do the same with Randy Moss, despite his post-game comments. And no, I would not be shocked to see Tom Brady end up as the #1 fantasy QB this year.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson will have many better days in 2010. Worry not.

I’m not buying Matt Hasselbeck, Mike Williams, or anyone else on the Seattle offense. Not yet. Strange things happen in Week 1, and I want to see how this team looks once the Pete Carroll Honeymoon of Exuberance is over and they realize how depleted their roster is. San Francisco is going to look back at Week 1 later in the season and just shake their heads.

I’m also not buying the other Mike Williams in Tampa Bay. He had 5 catches for 30 yards and a touchdown, but he’s a rookie. Rookie WRs are inconsistent. If you can find someone who will trade you a consistent #3 WR like Jabar Gaffney for him, do it. Now.

Of course there are many, many more observations, but I’ll have to save some for my Start em, Sit em column, which should be ready to go tomorrow.

What I’m looking for tonight

We have two Monday night games tonight, and here are the key storylines I’m interested in:

• If the Ravens get the ball inside the 5 yard line, who is taking the snaps at running back?
• How do the Jets split up the carries between Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson?
• Who is the #1 receiving option for Mark Sanchez? Is it Dustin Keller?
• Can the Ravens contain a rather porous Jets passing attack?
• How do the Chiefs split up the carries between Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones?
• How comfortable is Philip Rivers going to Malcolm Floyd as his go-to guy?
• Is Ryan Mathews as good as everyone says he is? If so, he should romp all over Kansas City.

How about you? What were your observations from yesterday’s game? What are you watching for tonight?

Fantasy Football Tip of the Day: Don’t be scared about Jamaal Charles

I’ve heard a lot of grumbling about whether or not Jamaal Charles is really a stud fantasy RB in 2010 because he now must compete with Thomas Jones for touches. Heck, I’ve even wondered about it myself.

This morning, I’m here to tell you to stop the grumbling.

First of all, consider that Charles was already a stud last year and he only had 190 carries. It’s what he did with those 190 carries that matters, and Charles certainly made the most of them, finishing the season with 1,120 yards (a sterling 5.9 yard average) and 7 TDs. He also – importantly – tacked on 40 receptions for an additional 297 yards and another TD.

So that’s 1,400+ total yards and 8 TDs. By way of comparison, DeAngelo Williams had about 1,375 total yards and 7 TDs last year with almost 3o more carries.

And remember, Charles didn’t even start getting consistent touches until Week 10. Before that game against Oakland, Charles had not carried the ball more than six times in a single game. From Week 10 on, he never carried it less than 14 times and finished the season with 20, 25, 24, and 25 carries in consecutive weeks. That, of course, is when he exploded.

If you take Charles’ Week 10-17 performance and extrapolate it over an entire season, you’d get 1,936 yards on 322 carries…which is just ridiculous production. But that’s how good Charles was during the season’s second half last year. No one really expects Charles to get that many touches, especially with Jones in the picture, but he certainly will remain a featured part of the Chiefs’ offense.

Let’s say that Charles carries the ball 17 times per game, a reasonable and conservative estimate. His career average is 5.7 yards per carry, which he almost certainly will not maintain, but let’s say he averages a modest 4.5. That’s still 1,224 yards. If he tacks on another 40-50 receptions, which he almost certainly will, that’s another 300-400 yards. Assuming he gets 8-10 touchdowns, another modest assumption, you’re talking about a back who eclipses 1,500 yards and with 8-10 TDs.

That’s easily 2nd round material at a position as tough and competitive as running back – and it’s worst-case-scenario type stuff. Based on what we saw last year, Charles has the talent to get 1,500+ rushing yards even without toting the rock 300 times.

I know that people are worried Thomas Jones will steal some of Charles’ thunder this year, but I would not be overly concerned about it. While Jones was monstrous in his own right last year, he is 32 years old and approaching the inevitable running back cliff. At this point in his career, he is best served by accepting a reduced role and excelling in it, especially coming off of a 331-carry season.

The Chiefs will be better on offense this year than people think (Charlie Weis baby!), and I believe there will be plenty of scoring opportunities for Charles to be a solid #2 RB or even a #1 guy if you go QB or WR in Round 1. I also think Jones will have some flex value getting 10-12 touches per game and the occasional score.

But do not – I repeat do not - downgrade Jamaal Charles because Thomas Jones is around.

In fact, consider this: the knock on Charles has always been his size, leading to people questioning whether or not he can take a pounding. Well, having Jones around means Charles won’t have to carry 300+ times, which should theoretically keep him fresher and mitigate the risk of injury. A reasonable argument could be made that the presence of Jones actually increases Charles’ value. It’s counter-intuitive, I know. But you don’t win fantasy leagues by just following the herd of groupthink all the time.

Final thought: Teams know that they need two competent RBs in this day and age, but the fresher, more talented legs almost always win out. Jamaal Charles clearly has both, and he is in line to pick up right where he left off in 2009.