Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks

By Week 11, the bye weeks are over and the playoff picture is becoming clear in your league(s). You are either researching waiver wire sleepers because you a) need someone with upside to win a key Week 11 battle, or b) you are in the playoffs already and are looking down the road to guys who can help you win a championship.

So my goal with this week’s waiver wire sleeper column is to satisfy both searches.

Some of the guys below are excellent Week 11 choices while others are more longer-term type plays. Regardless, I think all of the guys discussed below have the ability to help you better your chances at playoff success – either getting there or winning there – and that’s what it’s all about.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks

There are no teams on bye in Week 11!

Remember, the rules for this post are: a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues to be included; and, I focus on players’ value for Week 11, although I’ll recommend players with poor matchups or outlooks if they especially stand out as valuable long-term acquisitions.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: QB

Matt Cassel, Kansas City (v Arizona, 45%)

Brett Favre has been starting football games in the NFL since before many of you were born, and he’s had only two 400-yard passing games. One of them came two weeks ago against the Arizona Cardinals, despite the fact that he was getting hit repeatedly, was still missing Sidney Rice, no longer had Randy Moss, and had a #1 target – Percy Harvin – who was running on a bum ankle.

So…starting the QB facing Arizona is a good idea. The Cardinals give up 250+ passing yards per game and at least a TD pass in every game. Matt Hasselbeck added 333 yards and a TD to the Cardinals pass D ledger in Week 10. Matt Cassel isn’t a great start every week, but he can take advantage of good matchups. And as his 469 yards and 4 TDs in the Chiefs’ Week 10 blowout showed, Cassel has some momentum you can build on.

Vince Young or Kerry Collins, Tennessee (v WAS, 35% and 2%)

It’s never clear from week-to-week which QB will be starting for the Titans. In Week 11, it doesn’t really matter because whoever starts will be throwing against a Washington pass D that is among the most generous in the NFL. With Randy Moss now on the roster, the Titans passing game has the deep threat it lost when Kenny Britt went down. This matchup warrants a start for either QB.

Shaun Hill, Detroit (at Dallas, 20%)

Hill has been very productive as a fill-in for the oft-injured Matthew Stafford this year. The Cowboys pass defense has been among the worst in the NFL in terms of giving up TDs as well as creating turnovers, which they simply do not do (or, at least, they didn’t before Week 10). As long as the Lions have Calvin Johnson, their QB will have value. With Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew also in the mix, this is a passing game that can take advantage of good matchups.

Others to keep your eye on: Troy Smith threw for 300+ yards and a TD last week, and the Tampa Bay defense can be scored upon; Colt McCoy continues to be solid and account for at least one TD per week, so he’s not a bad option if you’re desperate.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: RB

Darren Sproles, San Diego (v DEN, 40%)

I’m well aware that in Sproles’ last game, a seemingly tasty matchup versus Houston, he had only two touches and did nothing with them. I also realize that San Diego should have a healthier WR corps and Antonio Gates back in Week 11. And yes, I know that Darren Sproles is third on the third RB rung in San Diego, behind Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert.

But that matchup against Denver screams out with potential, for no defense in the NFL has been as generous to opposing running backs as the Broncos’ has been. In 7 career games against Denver, Sproles has scored three TDs, and it was just a few weeks ago that three Oakland running backs produced fantasy value against the Broncos. If you’re in a PPR league. Sproles could offer decent value in Week 11.

Jerome Harrison, Philadelphia (v NYG, 11%)

Before you ask me what I’m drinking while I write this (red wine, but that’s beside the point…), understand that I am officially labeling this a SPECULATIVE choice only if you have a “free” roster spot. But don’t forget what happened at the end of last season: Harrison single-handedly carried teams to playoff success with three immaculate final games.

Harrison’s chances of making a late season splash in 2010 rest solely on the health of LeSean McCoy. If McCoy stays healthy, Harrison will be nothing more than a 5-10 touch guy on his best day. However, if McCoy goes down, Harrison immediately becomes a top-15 back. His skill set fits very well into what the Eagles do, and they have late season matchups against Houston (Week 13) and Dallas (Week 14) that would obviously be nice.

Don’t drop anyone you might play for him, but if you’ve been carrying a second kicker or tight end or defense during the bye weeks, why not take a chance on a guy who is one injury away from lots of upside?

Fred Taylor, New England (v Indianapolis, 3%)

If you are desperate for a running back in Week 11 due to injuries or your starters’ ineffectiveness, Fred Taylor is a guy to keep an eye on. First, make sure he’s going to play. Assuming he plays (which he is expected to do), Taylor could do damage against Indy’s poor run D even with limited (8-12) carries.

And understand this: Taylor will get some carries. Bill Belichick rotates his backs and you never know who will be the most productive. It’s frustrating, but also means any New England back has the potential to be valuable if you need a roll of the dice with a potential payoff.

More than Week 11 though, Taylor is a nice speculative pick for the future. He wasn’t lighting it up before getting hurt (0 TDs) but he has upcoming matchups against Detroit (Week 12) and Buffalo (Week 16) that have potential.

Others to keep your eye on: Mike Goodson of Carolina, if he is starting next week; Javarris James scored another touchdown in Week 10, so he has value; Chester Taylor got 14 touches in Week 10;

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: WR

Robert Meachem, New Orleans (v Seattle, 45%)

Seattle is terrible against the pass, and they have historically been much worse on the road than they are at home. We know that the Saints’ offense functions better on the Superdome surface and in front of their crazy fans, and we also know that Robert Meachem is a second half player. (Don’t believe me? Click here.)

I expect big things out of Meachem, and this is a very good matchup to play him. Future matchups against Dallas (Thanksgiving) and Baltimore (Week 15) are pretty nice as well.

Danny Amendola, St. Louis (v Atlanta, 38%)

Another week, another appearance by Danny Amendola in the sleeper article. Well, until he is owned in over 50% of leagues, I’ll keep putting Amendola here. What’s not to like? He is Sam Bradford’s #1 target, he is near the top of the league in red zone targets (scoring yet another TD in Week 10), and he even adds additional value as a return man.

Specific to Week 11, Atlanta does not have a great pass defense, and both the Rams and their rookie QB are better at home. This is a very nice matchup for Amendola.

Nate Burleson, Detroit (at Dallas, 17%)

This is another guy starting to become a weekly fixture in this article. Considering he has MegaTron opposite him to draw coverage, a QB who looks for him, and a solid matchup against the woeful Cowboys, Burleson makes a nice Week 11 play.  Future matchups against New England (Thanksgiving), Tampa Bay (Week 15), and Miami (Week 16) are also enticing.

Other WR names to keep in mind: Nate Washington, TEN (v WAS); Mike Thomas, JAX (v CLE); Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE (at JAX); Jordan Shipley, CIN (v BUF); Earl Bennett, CHI (at MIA).

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: TE

Benjamin Watson, Cleveland (at Jacksonville, 36%)

Watson has been a bit up and down this year, but he is worth a play by virtue of the matchup versus Jacksonville. Cleveland receivers aren’t often good recommendations, but pass defenses don’t come much worse than the Jags. Unless you have an elite TE, consider Watson.

Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati (v Buffalo, 21%)

You know that my excitement about Gresham has dwindled almost by the week, but Gresham came through with his best game as a pro in Week 10, and tight ends typically do well against the Bills. A tight end with Gresham’s physical gifts certainly has a lot of potential.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: Defense

Miami Dolphins (v Chicago, 37%)

The Dolphins are not a great defense, so Jay Cutler and the Bears could put up some yards and points, but Miami can also rush the passer with Cameron Wake and has playmakers like Vontae Davis in the secondary to pick off errant throws. Any defense has value against the Bears, and the Dolphins have the potential for a solid Thursday night outing.

Detroit Lions (at Dallas, 35%)

The Lions have been surprisingly productive on defense this year from a fantasy perspective. Much of the credit for that goes to Ndamukong Suh. Considering the fact that the Cowboys’ O-Line hasn’t proven it can block consistently, and has INT-machine Jon Kitna at QB, the Lions are a solid play against Dallas.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Friday Injury Updates: McFadden, McCoy, Bradshaw, PT, and more

We do it every Friday: run down all of the fantasy-relevant injuries that you need to be paying attention to as Sunday approaches. So let’s jump right in with this week’s injury updates.

Darren McFadden is still dealing with an injured hamstring and it now appears that he will not be able to play. Michael Bush will step in and assume the carries against San Diego.

In positive Raider injury news, Louis Murphy is not on the injury report and should be ready for a strong game. His favorite QB, Bruce Gradkowski, is on the injury report but also expected to play.

Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has not been practicing this week because of a rib injury. He appears to be a game time decision, which sucks because the Eagles play Sunday night. That means you need to either make your decision to sit McCoy early in the day or Sunday, or have Mike Bell or someone from the Monday night game to deploy in case McCoy is a late scratch.

In Cleveland, running back revelation Peyton Hillis has a thigh issue that has limited him in practice. As of right now, all signs point to him playing, but monitor this situation. Jerome Harrison would be a solid start candidate if Hillis can’t play.

At QB for the Browns, Jake Delhomme is slowly working his way back into the lineup and will start over Seneca Wallace if he’s feeling good enough. Keep tabs on this if your team is in such dire straits that you have to start Cleveland’s QB. (Actually, if that’s the case, just quit. You’re done.)

Ahmad Bradshaw, who is quietly compiling nice numbers this year, missed practice on Thursday. He is dealing with an ankle issue. Check to see if he practices today. Houston is pretty strong against the run, but Bradshaw should still have scoring opportunities if he plays.

For the Texans, both Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones are game-time decisions. Not much more I can say other than that. At least Johnson practiced on a limited basis Thursday. Jones missed it completely. (Moral of the story: get Kevin Walter ready to start.)

In New Orleans, it looks like half their damn team is on the injury report. Pierre Thomas is the main player fantasy owners are worried about, and he has missed practice again this week. It looks like he’ll miss Sunday’s plum matchup versus Arizona. Ladell Betts and Chris Ivory are the two backs you want, and both have value, as we saw last week when both Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert scored against the Cardinals.  Jeremy Shockey missed practice Thursday with a knee issue. He’s expected to play, and it’s a great matchup if he does.

Maurice Jones-Drew is on the injury report with an ankle. He also participated fully in Thursday’s practice and is a horse; he’s fine.

Knowshon Moreno did not practice Thursday because of his hamstring issue. Baltimore has been giving up rushing yards, so he’s a decent play if he’s active Sunday, but I’m not holding my breath. Have an alternative ready.

Ray Rice has been practicing all week and will be ready to bust loose on Sunday.

Austin Collie did not practice on Thursday because of the football injury that’s been ailing him. He played last week with the injury, so I assume he’ll do the same this week and have a good week. Pierre Garcon is also back practicing fully, so keep an eye on him and see how many targets he gets in his first week back.

Clinton Portis is out for 4-6 weeks with a groin injury. Get Ryan Torain ready to go.

Steven Jackson has been limited in practice because of a lingering groin issue, but he played pretty well with it last week. Detroit offers a nice matchup so have Jackson in your lineups.

Matthew Stafford remains out for at least one more week.

Jahvid Best is dealing with a toe injury that has forced him to be limited in practice this week. Still, he is expected to play on Sunday.

Jay Cutler is dealing with the effects of a concussion suffered last Sunday. He won’t play this weekend. Todd Collins will start in his place.

Steve Smith is still in a walking boot and will most likely miss this weekend’s game against the Bears. He should return after the Panthers’ Week 6 bye. Smith’s teammate DeAngelo Williams missed practice earlier this week because of an illness. He’ll be fine for Sunday.

Jordan Shipley is still dealing with a concussion and did not practice Thursday.

Steve Breaston remains out for the Cardinals. Early Doucet also is not practicing.

Justin Gage has a hamstring injury that is forcing him to miss practice. He’s supposed to play, but it looks like a game time decision.

Dez Bryant appears fully healed from his rib injury and should play Sunday against Tennessee.

Visanthe Shiancoe is limited in practice. Check his status Sunday.

Make sure to check the official NFL injury report to see how does and does not practice today and what their status is for Sunday.

Friday Injury Updates: Andre Johnson, Ray Rice, SJax, and more

I have to budget more and more time with each successive week for the Friday injury updates. Through the first two or three weeks, the fantasy-relevant injuries are usually pretty limited. But as the weeks go on, more and more top players start getting dinged up.

So sit back, relax, and strap it down as I go through every single injury that will affect your fantasy football week 4 lineup decisions.

One of the biggest injury stories of the week has been Andre Johnson.

The consensus #1 receiver coming into the season has gotten off to a slow start and now has a gimpy wheel. Johnson is dealing with an ankle injury that limited him last week and is causing him to miss practice this week too. Unfortunately, Johnson has been quoted as saying that the ankle is even more sore this week than it was last week.

You’re just going to have to check out the Friday practice reports and then watch this one up until kickoff on Sunday. It’s a late game so you may have to make a start/sit decision without knowing whether he’ll be active or inactive…but such is the frustration of fantasy football.

If he does play, Johnson will be matched up against Nnamdi Asomouga, which means he’ll have a tough go of it even if the ankle is feeling better. You don’t sit him because of that, but it does mean you should temper expectations.

In other Texans’ injury news, Owen Daniels is on the injury report with a hamstring problem that has kept him out of practice. He did practice Wednesday, so see what happens today before making an judgments here.

One of the other biggest injury stories of the week has been Ray Rice.

The Ravens’ running back has been limited in practice this week while dealing with a knee injury. He has a bruised right knee and the latest injury update on Rice is that he claims he will be ready to play against the Steelers on Sunday. He did have an MRI, which revealed no ligament or cartilage damage, both good signs.

Keep in mind though that the Rice and the Ravens are facing the Steelers’ outstanding run defense. Rice played well against the Steelers last year, but that was with no Troy Polamalu running around in the secondary. Rice should play, but temper your expectations.

In other Baltimore-Pittsburgh injury news, Todd Heap is on the injury report with some type of shoulder malady, but he practiced fully Thursday.

Another important running back injury to keep an eye on is Pierre Thomas in New Orleans. He did not practice on Thursday as he deals with an injured ankle. Thomas is expected to play on Sunday IF the ankle is feeling better, despite missing practice, but he will most likely be a game-time decision. Chris Ivory is the name to know if you’re a Thomas owner.

Steven Jackson did not practice on Thursday as he tries to recover from a groin injury. The latest injury update on SJax is that he is expected to test out the groin today in practice, at which time we should know more about his expected availability for Sunday. We’ve seen Jackson have nagging injuries and still play, and play well, so perhaps that will happen here. Keep your eye on today’s reports and grab Kenneth Darby if you haven’t already.

Cedric Benson has a knee issue, but practiced fully on Thursday and should be fine for Sunday’s matchup against Cleveland. I like him to have a solid day. Teammate Jordan Shipley was limited in practice Thursday with a shoulder injury. He should play Sunday, though probably not at full strength.

For the Browns, Joshua Cribbs was limited in practice Thursday, as were Jerome Harrison and Jake Delhomme. Cribbs should play, though he has never really done much against Baltimore. Whether Harrison or Delhomme play isn’t really all that relevant. Delhomme sucks and Harrison lost his chance to be the #1 back, at least for the foreseeable future, to Peyton Hillis.

Knowshon Moreno still isn’t practicing because of the hamstring injury he suffered late last week. He is not expected to play in Week 4.

The Lions are full of injured players, most notably Matthew Stafford, who remains unable to practice because of the shoulder injury he suffered in Week 1. He should start throwing and practicing again in the coming weeks though.

Lions rookie RB Jahvid Best has also been out of practice this week while dealing with a turf toe injury. The latest injury update on Best is that he is, however, expected to practice today and thinks he’ll be able to play Sunday. Watch the reports from practice today, but temper expectations if he does play. The Lions face Green Bay, a team very adept at stopping the run.

In Indianapolis, Donald Brown has an injured hamstring and did not practice Thursday. Likewise, Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez did not practice either. None of these three guys is an especially strong play even they suit up on Sunday. Joseph Addai is a bit dinged up too (no surprise there) but practiced fully on Thursday and should be a solid start against Jacksonville.

Continuing with the Colts, WR revelation Austin Collie has a heel injury that has limited him in practice. He should be fine and is expected to play, but double-check today’s practice reports and make sure. You can never be to sure with these things and NFL teams aren’t exactly forthright all the time when it comes to injuries.

Louis Murphy is a popular sleeper for Sunday, with Oakland facing the terrible Texans’ pass D. Murphy has an injured collarbone that his limited his practice time this week, but he is expected to play. Watch this one though. RB Michael Bush is back healthy, but he’s a risky start until he starts stealing carries away from Darren McFadden.

Clinton Portis has been practicing fully despite the wrist injury. He’ll be a risky play all year though because his coach is the notoriously fickle Mike Shanahan and Portis just isn’t nearly as good as he once was.

In Philadelphia, Jeremy Maclin is on the injury report with a back issue, but he practiced fully and is good to go for Sunday.

Steve Breaston is out for a while in Arizona after undergoing surgery this week. Fellow WR Early Doucet is also out. The good news for the Cardinals is that Beanie Wells is back and practicing fully after looking good in last week’s game.

Mario Manningham practiced yesterday despite being on the injury report with a concussion.

Fred Taylor has missed practice this week as he deals with a foot injury. There is a long time between now and Monday night, but the expectation is that he won’t play, making BenJarvus Green-Ellis the running back to own in New England…for now.

Darrelle Revis will not play for the Jets against Buffalo. His hamstring still hurts and is another reminder of why going to training camp is important. Otherwise, the Bills-Jets game is pretty clean.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start, Sit Roster Advice and Q&A

Well, Week 3 was a lot like Week 1.

My top-line start ‘em, sit ‘em picks didn’t fare so well, but my secondary picks and Q&A recommendations were mostly solid.

Let’s hope this bad week followed by good week trend continues with the top-line choices in Week 4. I have a lot of making up to do to Joe Flacco and Mike Wallace owners…

Here is the carnage:

• Start ‘em hits: Tony Romo, Dustin Keller
• Start ‘em misses: Dez Bryant (so close on this one!), New England
• Sit ‘em hits: Kellen Winslow
• Sit ‘em misses: Joe Flacco, All Dallas RBs (Barber had a solid day), Mike Wallace (HUGE miss), Philly D

(Note: I recommended Knowshon Moreno but he injured his hamstring and was inactive for Sunday.)

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

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Now onto the Week 4 picks.

Remember that the Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, and Buccaneers all have their byes in Week 4.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Picks

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, ATL (vs SF)

It’s time to start taking Matt Ryan seriously as a #1 fantasy QB. Here are his stats the last two weeks:

• Week 2: 225 yards, 3 TDs (vs Arizona)
• Week 3: 228 yards, 2 TDs (vs New Orleans)

In Week 4, Ryan has a nice matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, a team that supposedly had a good defense. Well, after being torched by Matt Hasselbeck (2 TDs) in Week 1 and then by Drew Brees in Week 2 (2 TDs), Matt Cassel threw 3 TDs in Week 3. Keep in mind, Cassel had been terrible coming into this game.

The 49ers may play well because at 0-3 their backs will be against the wall, but Ryan is proving that he, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez are one of the most potent QB-WR-TE trios in the NFL. It’s time to start getting him in your lineup regularly.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 4 projection: 230 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 4:

• Tom Brady has another seemingly tough matchup against the Dolphins. After throwing multiple TDs versus the Jets and Bills, two very good pass defenses, it’s time to understand that Brady never comes out of your lineup.
• The Eagles’ D in 2010 is not what we’ve come to expect. I think Donovan McNabb will have a nice day in his return to Philly.
• The New York Giants are not very good right now, especially on defense. Jay Cutler should be able to take advantage.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em QB: Carson Palmer, CIN (at Cleveland)

You may have seen Joe Flacco light up the Cleveland Browns and think that Carson Palmer might be a good option against them in Week 4. If you think this, I disagree with you.

It’s not that the Browns are great against the pass, they aren’t. They’re just okay. Truth be told, Anquan Boldin simply outplayed Eric Wright and Joe Flacco found him. I don’t think the Browns were quite as bad as the numbers indicate; just that one matchup was.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have a terrible passing attack and will likely start trending more and more towards the run. Look at Carson Palmer’s numbers the last two weeks:

• Week 2: 167 yards, 0 TDs (v Baltimore)
• Week 3: 195 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs (v Carolina)

That is putrid. And keep in mind, the Panthers had been giving up multiple TD passes to everyone. And the one passing TD was to Cedric Benson out of the backfield. Where are OchoCinco and T.O.?

If it weren’t for some garbage time yards in Week 1 when the Patriots game was already decided, Palmer’s numbers would look even worse than they do. This guy is basically Trent Dilfer now. If he couldn’t do anything against Carolina, who do you trust him against?

Carson Palmer fantasy football Week 4 projection: 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 4:

• Eli Manning struggled to get the ball to his receivers in Week 3 against a Tennessee pass defense that is nothing special. I like him still this season, but a matchup with the Bears may not be ideal.
• Joe Flacco finally got in sync with Anquan Boldin in Week 3. Unfortunately, the Ravens now face the Steelers. Anyone else foresee a 9-6 game?
• There are a bunch of other QBs like Alex Smith and David Garrard that you should sit, but do you need me to tell you that?

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, CLE (vs Cincinnati)

How can you not take notice of Peyton Hillis after what he did in Week 3? Against the always stout Ravens’ run defense, Hillis rumbled for 144 yards and a TD on 22 carries. He also added 36 yards on 7 receptions.

Yes, these were the type of numbers we were expecting from Jerome Harrison. And yes, this is me publicly eating crow for being so high on Harrison before the season and during Weeks 1 and 2. But stubbornness gets you nowhere in fantasy football. I watched a lot of the Browns-Ravens game and Hillis was the second-best player on the field (after Anquan Boldin).

One of the reasons so many people were high on Harrison is that the Browns have a solid O-Line and will be able to run on people this year. Cincinnati is very good against the pass, but did give up a decent YPC average in Week 3. With no passing game to speak of, Cleveland will keep riding Hillis.

Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 4 projection: 105 yards rushing, TD, 5 receptions, 30 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 4:

• Too many people are too worried about Michael Turner. Folks, when he is healthy, you start him. San Francisco is supposed to have a good run defense, but I haven’t really seen it yet. Turner should have a strong day.
• I know that you’re getting very worried about DeAngelo Williams right now…but this is not the week to sit him. New Orleans gives up rushing yards and lots of fantasy points to opposing runners. If I hadn’t already typed out the Hillis recommendation above, I would switch it to DAW. Keep him in your lineups.
• Ahmad Bradshaw keeps on producing. The fumbles and brain farts won’t help, but the Giants have no one else and Bradshaw, based on his production, is inching into top-20 RB territory.
• Well, Darren McFadden just keeps producing. So keep starting him.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em RB: Jahvid Best, DET (at Green Bay)

The Packers play the run well, which makes this a tough matchup for Best. Add to that the fact that he struggled against a good run D in Week 3, plus had to leave the game with an injury, and it equals a less than optimal week for Best owners.

Don’t be completely blinded by the five TDs he has so far this season. He scored two on goalline carries in Week 1, then exploded in Week 2 against an Eagles defense that has not been great this year. He’s been good, don’t get me wrong…but probably not quite as good as his numbers suggest.

Exercise caution with Best this season and remember that he is just a rookie, and this may be one of those weeks when you go with an alternative.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 4 projection: 55 yards, 0 TDs, 3 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 4:

• Until further notice, Jerome Harrison has to be on your bench. Hillis is going to be the guy, at least for now, in Cleveland.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis stepped up for New England this week after Fred Taylor got hurt. Once again, let me reiterate: stay away from the New England backfield. It’s just too much of a crapshoot.
• Consider Ray Rice’s automatic position in your lineup this week. You know that I say always play your stars, but this might an exception. Pittsburgh’s run D is ferocious and Rice has yet to get into the endzone this year. He also had to leave the Week 3 game early, so he could be a bit dinged up. Don’t sit him unless you have some really good alternatives. If you are so blessed, it’s something to think about about.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em WR: Santana Moss, WAS (at Philadelphia)

Santana Moss is entering must-start territory now that he and Donovan McNabb have found some rhythm together. Moss had 16 catches coming into Week 2 and was one of the most targeted WRs in the league. In Week 3, he continued to be a favorite of Donovan McNabb and finally got into the endzone.

This week, the Redskins head into Philadelphia, which marks the return of Donovan McNabb to his old city. I have a feeling McNabb is going to want to throw a few of his patented deep balls and remind the Eagles what they are missing. Those deep balls will likely go to Moss. I’ll never guarantee a TD for anyone…but I feel really strongly that Moss gets into the endzone at least once this week.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 4 projection: 6 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 4:

• Kevin Walter got into the endzone again. That’s three weeks in a row. You have to respect that.
• Too many people are asking me about Steve Smith of the Giants. I play him every week. He hasn’t gotten into the endzone this year, but he had 9 catches for 103 yards last week. He’s Eli Manning’s favorite target.
• Jeremy Maclin scored again this week..twice. Michael Vick keeps looking to him. You know DeSean Jackson is a must-start, but it’s time that Maclin got some respect too. This is a solid top 30 WR.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em WR: Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh, BAL (at Pittsburgh)

How much do I dislike these two this week and moving forward? Let me count the ways…

• First off there is the matchup. Baltimore plays Pittsburgh, which means that scoring opportunities will be limited.
• Secondly, there is the lack of production so far this year. Mason scored in Week 2, but otherwise neither of these two has done much of anything yet this year.
• Thirdly, there is the emergence of Anquan Boldin in Week 3. He caught 3 TDs, a couple of which Flacco just launched blindly in his direction. I think Flacco continues going to to Boldin.
• Fourth, there is the fact that Ray Rice and Todd Heap are above Mason and Housh in the Baltimore offensive pecking order.

Add all of this up…and you have a couple of guys that I’d sit on a regular basis.

Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh fantasy football Week 4 projection (combined): 6 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 4:

• All 49ers WRs. This team absolutely cannot pass the ball. Stay away. Stay far away.
• It’s safe to stick a fork in Bernard Berrian. He only had two catches against Detroit, which was supposed to be his breakout game. H
• Strongly consider sitting Steve Smith (CAR) in Week 4 if you have good alternatives. The Panthers have a better matchup in Week 4 for their passing game (New Orleans) but it’s pretty clear that Jimmy Clausen is going struggle…a lot. That hurts everyone on the Carolina offense.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em TE: Vernon Davis, SF (at Altanta)

I already know that the Vernon Davis questions are coming this week, so I figured I’d issue this preemptive strike: start him.

Davis only had 3 catches in Week 3, and didn’t get into the endzone, but he had 12 catches in the two weeks prior and at least 70 receiving yards in both games. Unfortunately, the 49ers offense is just struggling right now and not offering Davis the same number of red zone opportunities that he got last year en route to 13 TD catches. While no one expected that number to be repeated, no one thinks he’ll only catch 2 (his amount in ’08) either.

The Falcons gave up 70+ yards and a TD to Jeremy Shockey in Week 3. With the 49ers desperate for a win, they’ll have to feed their best receiver. I think Davis steps it up and has his first big week of 2010.

Vernon Davis fantasy football Week 4 projection: 7 catches, 95 yards, TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 4:

• Zach Miller caught a TD in Week 3 and faces a Houston defense that will give up a lot through the air. He’s a solid start this week.
• Aaron Hernandez led the Patriots in catches and yards in Week 3 (6, 65). He plays a Miami defense that will give up some fantasy points to opposing TEs.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em TE: Todd Heap, BAL (at Pittsburgh)

Todd Heap has just four catches against the Steelers over the past two seasons. Granted, two of those went for touchdowns in one game last season, but I consider that more of a fluke. The overall lack of production is the trend.

Heap is having a nice bounce back year so far in 2010, but I don’t see Baltimore having many scoring opportunities against Pittsburgh. Plus, with Troy Polamalu roaming around out there, Heap might have one or two catches taken away by big hits.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week 4 projection: 3 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 4:

• Owen Daniels still isn’t quite back to his must-start self. I still say resist the urge to start him until he starts catching 5-6 passes again.
• Michael Vick clearly doesn’t have the same rapport with Brent Celek that Kevin Kolb did. Celek is not a must-start anymore, though I wouldn’t drop him.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em D/ST: Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland)

Much was made of the Bengals’ wide receiving corps in the offseason, but the defense is clearly the dominant unit on this team. Perhaps if the Bengals start running the ball more, the offense can catch up.

While there won’t be as many fumbles in Week 4 as there were against rookie Jimmy Clausen in Week 3, the Browns remain a one-dimensional offense. As long as the Bengals contain Peyton Hillis, they should have, at worst, a decent day.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 4 projection: 14 or less points, 2 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 4:

• The Falcons are playing the 49ers. Right now, I shouldn’t need to say anything more.
• The Saints are playing the Panthers. Again, right now, I shouldn’t need to say anything more.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (vs New England)

I like the Dolphins defense this year, but the Patriots are putting up points against everyone. If the Jets and Bills couldn’t contain Tom Brady and the passing attack (at least from a fantasy perspective), then I doubt the Dolphins will either.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Week 4 projection: 20 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 4:

• I think the Giants-Bears game will be high scoring. I would prefer not have either starting for me.
• The 49ers defense was supposed to be good this year. It’s not. Sit them. It’s probably okay to drop them at this point.

As always, the comment section awaits your questions. We’ll have the rankings and sleepers posted later this week, plus our regular live chats. Good luck everyone!

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* – Matt Ryan photo credit: Phil Skinner via Atlanta Journal Constituion

Fantasy Football Talk Podcast – Week 3

It’s Thursday, so you know what that means: time for another episode of Fantasy Football Talk.

MSF senior fantasy writer Kurt Fraschetti joined me yesterday as he always does and we tackled a smorgasbord of fantasy topics.

And if you listened to last week’s episode, you can probably guess what led off this week’s show. Here’s a hint: it involves the Philadelphia Eagles and some major gloating by Kurt.

Listen here:

• You can also listen to the MSF Podcast on iTunes and subscribe to future episodes.
• Podcast Intro & Outro Song: “Dax McCarthy’s Magic Elixer’” by The Twin Cats (Indianapolis)

Once you’re done listening, or while you’re listening, make sure to head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to check out all of our Week 3 insight, analysis, and advice:

• Week 3 Rankings
• Week 3 Start/Sit and Q&A
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

A more detailed breakdown of the topics we talk about:

• Kurt gloats about his successful prediction that Michael Vick would dominate against Detroit and then take over the starting QB gig full-time for Philly.
• Jerod and Kurt analyze the effect that Jimmy Clausen will have on the Carolina offense.
• Kurt thinks the loss of Reggie Bush won’t hurt the Saints much, if at all.
• Jerod and Kurt provide two names from the waiver wire that you absolutely need to know right now.
• Tony Romo’s struggles are discussed, but also why he is a must start this week.
• Jerod explains why everyone should be grabbing Kevin Walter right about now.
• The guys discuss who is more likely to rebound and make the playoffs between the Cowboys and the Vikings.
• And finally, Jerod answers the question everyone in Cleveland wants to know: who will have more fantasy value between Peyton Hillis and Adrian Peterson.
• Plus more.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Roster Advice and Q&A

As I anticipated it would be, Week 2 was much better for me than Week 1. It’s always nice to be able to see everyone play a real game before trying to prognosticate how they will do.

Week 2 wasn’t perfect, but still a rather solid performance.

The hits and misses:

• Start ‘em hits: LeSean McCoy, Chris Cooley, Oakland D, Austin Collie
• Start ‘em misses: Eli Manning
• Sit ‘em hits: Brett Favre, Felix Jones, Owen Daniels, Buffalo Bills D, Michael Crabtree
• Sit ‘em misses:

But no resting on our laurels. Week 2 is over. Let’s turn the page to Week 3 and see who should start and who should sit.

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

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Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em QB: Tony Romo, Dallas (@ Houston)

I know you’re wary of starting Tony Romo after Weeks 1 and 2. He’s racked up a lot of yardage (600+ yards) but has only 2 TDs to show for it, plus 2 INTs. Unfortunately for Romo owners, such inefficient stats are looking like what we should expect in 2010. The Cowboys can rack up yards, but this team simply has not shown an ability to find the end zone consistently, nor have they established a running game to take the pressure off Romo and help move the chains.

But in Week 3, Romo has a matchup you absolutely must exploit. Here are the numbers for the QBs the Houston Texans have played during the first two weeks of 2010:

• Peyton Manning: 40-57, 433 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
• Donovan McNabb: 28-38, 426 yards, 1 TD

What else do I need to say? Start Romo. Then worry about him in Week 5 (Dallas has a bye in Week 4) when he faces Tennessee.

Tony Romo fantasy football week 3 projection: 350 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• It’s probably time to start buying Kyle Orton as a guy you can start weekly and feel good about. With 4 TDs through two games and Indy up next, Orton’s worth a look.
• Brett Favre has been my sit ‘em QB two weeks in a row. And two weeks in a row I’ve been right. Detroit is the opponent in Week 2, and both Jay Cutler and Michael Vick have put up good numbers against them. I think Favre gets rolling – a little bit – this week.
• Whoever plays QB for the Eagles, whether it’s Michael Vick or Kevin Kolb, start ‘em. Jacksonville’s defense is not very good.
• Yeah, a fourth one. It’s a good week for QBs! Carolina is giving up lots of points to opposing QBs. Start Carson Palmer as he, Ocho, and TO pad their otherwise woeful stats.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)

What!? But Flacco owners have been licking their chops for the Cleveland game! Yeah, well so were the Tampa Bay and Kansas City offenses too. This was the result for the QBs:

• Josh Freeman: 182 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Matt Cassel: 176 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs

So while the competition hasn’t been great, the Browns are giving up an average of less than 200 yards and only 1 TD per week. While Baltimore certainly has more weapons on offense than Tampa Bay or Kansas City, they’ve looked putrid so far this season against two pretty solid defenses.

Cleveland is no Jets or Bengals D, but they are decent. With all of the startable QBs who have favorable matchups this week, I’d love to sit Flacco until he figures out how to use his new weapons. And, for the record, Flacco threw only one TD in two games against Cleveland last year.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 3 projection: 225 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• So Vince Young is still a threat to get pulled for Kerry Collins? I know it was Pittsburgh, and they are really good on D, but I’m sitting Vince against a stout Giants front four.
• That’s two straight stinkers from Matt Cassel. Sit him until further notice. (Hopefully you weren’t planning to start him anyway.)
• Anyone getting excited about Josh Freeman’s four TDs in two games? Good, hope you enjoyed it. He won’t do that against Pittsburgh in Week 3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Indianapolis)

Update 9/24: Well that didn’t go so well, huh? Knowshon Moreno has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game, despite not appearing on the injury report all week.

Can we all agree that as an NFL running back, Knowshon Moreno will probably not be the explosive, dynamic runner he was in college at Georgia? Okay, good.

Now, can we all also agree that he is Denver’s main man in the backfield and – assuming he stays healthy – will be a steady-eddie type guy who will get touches and a solid #2 RB/flex play? Okay good.

In Week 2, Moreno had 28 touches and racked up 118 yards, plus a TD. There is nothing explosive about that, but it helps you move the chains, so to speak, in your fantasy matchups. Against Indy? Even better. The run D was better for the Colts Sunday night, but they still gave up 5.2 yards per carry to Ahmad Bradshaw.

Start Moreno with confidence this week.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 3 projection: 95 yards rushing, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• You know what? I’m not sure I care right now if Beanie Wells plays in Week 3 or not. Tim Hightower has had two productive weeks and the Cardinals will have to ride their running game with Derek Anderson at QB. Oakland is a good matchup too.
• Matt Forte has been more productive as a receiver than a runner for two weeks. Who cares? It all counts the same. Green Bay will pressure Jay Cutler like Dallas did, but Chicago showed they can deal with it. Start Forte.
• You might wonder whether you should start Jahvid Best at RB against a solid Minnesota run D that bottled up Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Yeah, well I was hesitant to start him against Chicago and Philly too. 5 TDs later, start this guy. He’s electric.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em RB: All Dallas RBs (@ Houston)

Felix Jones was my sit ‘em RB in Week 2. That worked out well. This week, allow me to expand my sit recommendation for the single most overrated position on one team in the NFL.

Everyone talks about the supposed three-headed running back monster in Dallas. Too bad none of them are worthy of starting. And against Houston? Well neither Joseph Addai or Clinton Portis did much against Houston (and don’t talk to me about Portis’ two short-yardage TDs; you can’t predict that and he had 33 yards on 13 carries).

This is going to be a shootout with Matt Schaub and Tony Romo trading touchdown passes. Maybe one of the Dallas RBs goes off, but I’d much prefer to have Marion Barber and Felix Jones sitting on my bench until someone emerges as the guy who will get 15-20 touches per week and do something with them.

Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice fantasy football week 3 projection: 50 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Carnell Williams. Every week, just check to see who Pittsburgh is facing. Then sit that running back. Now move along.
• CJ Spiller got one carry and four receptions against Green Bay. He’s clearly losing the rookie RB race to Jahvid Best…by a mile. Sit Spiller until he proves he’s worth starting.
• I’m sick and damn tired of the Jerome Harrison saga in Cleveland. One week he makes me look good, one week he makes me look like an idiot. The Browns finally gave him some carries (16) against KC and Harrison runs for 33 yards. Sure, the Chiefs were keying on him to prevent what happened last year, but I’m not rolling the dice against Baltimore.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em WR: Dez Bryant, Dallas (at Houston)

Can you tell I like the Dallas passing game this week?

I’m obviously not going to tell you to start Miles Austin, because that’s too easy. But if Tony Romo throws for 400+ yards (as both QBs have done against Houston this season) then someone else is going to have a big day. And I’m definitely not telling you to start Roy Williams.

Bryant only had 2 catches in Week 2, but he was targeted often in Week 1 when he had 8 catches for 56 yards. In Week 2, Bryant’s value this past Sunday came from his punt return TD. The Cowboys only let him return kicks when he’ll have a chance for a run back, and based on what we saw in Week 2 he’s got the goods to do it any time.

I like this to be Bryant’s breakout game as receiver. Plus, the Cowboys are desperate and Bryant is perhaps their most talented offensive player. They need to start getting him involved, especially in the red zone, to change their fortunes. I think he could have a really big week.

Dez Bryant fantasy football week 3 projection: 8 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs in Week 3:

• Dallas might be without cornerback Mike Jenkins, and their safeties are terrible. You know Andre Johnson is a must-start, but give Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter a look too.
• Mark Clayton only had two catches in Week 2, but he made them count; both were touchdowns. Playing a Washington D that gave up a ton through the air in Week 2 (granted, it was to Houston’s aerial attack and not a rookie QB) I think Clayton needs to be in your lineup.
• I am a Brandon Marshall owner. If you are, you may be concerned about the same things I am for this week: he hasn’t gotten into the end zone; Chad Henne does not look good despite the ‘Fins 2-0 record; and, the Jets are on the schedule in Week 3. I don’t care. Start Marshall. Darrelle Revis is a bit banged up, the Patriots proved you can get scores through the air against the Jets, and Marshall is a primetime player. He’ll shine on Sunday night…assuming Henne can get it to him.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em WR: Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh (@ Tampa Bay)

Wallace actually had more receptions in Week 2 (2) than Hines Ward did (1). Still, I’m a card carrying member of the I Love Hines Ward As a Consistent Fantasy Starter Club, so I’m not going to tell you to sit him unless you have some really good alternatives.

However, with the QB flux in Pittsburgh, neither Ward nor Wallace is an especially strong start this week. And seeing as how Wallace’s value comes from big plays, he is the one more likely to feel the effect of whatever non-Big Ben QB trots out there for Pittsburgh next week.

Plus, neither Cleveland nor Carolina (granted, two terrible passing games) had much success through the air against the Bucs. So there’s that too.

Mike Wallace fantasy football Week 3 projection: 2 receptions 29 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Lee Evans didn’t have a catch this week when I recommended him as a start to a few people. Thanks Lee. Sit this guy as long as Trent Edwards is the QB.
• Legedu Naanee followed up his sterling Week 1 performance with a 1 rec, 14 yard stinker in Week3. I’m not a big fan of him at all as a weekly starter.
• You know how Devin Aromashodu was supposed to break out this week? Umm…he didn’t even register a single catch. While the Bears’ passing attack will probably be a merry-go-round all year, I wouldn’t feel confident starting him right now.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em TE: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (at Miami)

Do you get it yet? Mark Sanchez loves his tight end.

Keller had 7 receptions for 115 yards and a TD against New England in Week 2. The Jets’ Week 3 opponent Miami gave up 6 receptions and 86 yards to Visanthe Shiancoe in Week 2. Do the math. Start Keller.

And consider Keller a weekly start until Mark Sanchez stops looking to him on almost every dropback.

Dustin Keller fantasy football week 3 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• See that stat above regarding Shiancoe? Well the Vikes are playing Detroit this week. I foresee a TD.
• Jermichael Finley was over 100 yards in Week 2 despite not scoring. He’ll score this year. Plenty. Don’t worry and start him.
• Mercedes Lewis had a second straight good game. The Jaguars are at home (which means David Garrard will play well). Philly gave up 7 catches and 108 yards to Brandon Pettigrew in Week 2. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but everything points to a solid day for Lewis.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (vs Pittsburgh)

The Solider had four catches for 83 yards in Week 2, but he faces the fearsome Pittsburgh D in Week 3. I don’t see a whole lot of scoring chances materializing for the Bucs and young QB Josh Freeman. Thus, I think Winslow’s value is limited.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football week 3 projection: 3 catches, 31 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• I’d be careful with Jason Witten. He doesn’t score many TDs anyway and banged his head pretty good in Week 2. Make sure you have a good alternative if you’re going to sit him, but I wouldn’t mind doing so this week.
• Brandon Pettigrew had a nice day in Week 2, but may not find so many opportunities against a Minnesota defense that doesn’t give up much to opposing TEs.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em D/ST: New England Patriots (vs Buffalo)

The Bills are going to be a fantasy-friendly opposing offense all season long. With the Patriots smarting from their loss to the Jets, and the way they played in the first half against Cincy still in my mind, I like the Patriots in Week 3.

New England Patriots fantasy football Week 3 projection: 13 points or less, 2 TOs, 3 sacks

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 3:

• Miami’s defense is pretty damn good. It’s always nerve-wracking recommending the Dolphins in any way against yearly foil the Jets, but I think the D could be solid Sunday night.
• Washington gets to face a St. Louis offense that will improve in years to come…but that isn’t very good right now. Start the ‘Skins against the rookie QB.
• Cincinnati at Carolina looks like a pretty sweet matchup for the Bengals’ D.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles (at Jacksonville)

Don’t get overconfident about this matchup after the Jaguars Week 2 stinker. It was on the road, where the Jags typically play poorly. They’ll be out to avenge such a bad performance, and the Eagles have given up a ton of yards and points to the Packers and Lions during the first two weeks of the season.

I wouldn’t drop the Eagles yet, but they have not been nearly as good as we expected so far in 2010.

Philadelphia Eagles fantasy football Week 2 projection: 21+ points given up, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units in Week 3:

• Chicago faces the Green Bay juggernaut. I’d prefer to not be starting the Bears.
• I obviously don’t want the Texans D starting, and I don’t want Dallas’ D starting either next week. That game should be a shootout.

As always, your questions are welcomed in the comment section and I will answer as many as I can as quickly as I can. Live chats Friday and Sunday morning, plus all of our other usual posts as scheduled this week.

Best of luck in Week 3 everyone!

Monday Morning Observations: Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Steve Breaston, and more

As I’ll try to do every Monday morning, here is a smorgasbord of quick hit observations after a full slate of Sunday games.

If I’m a Tony Romo owner, and I am in one keeper league, I am both encouraged and concerned by what I saw last night.

I’m encouraged because Miles Austin looks as good as ever, Dez Bryant is talented and involved in the gameplan, and Roy Williams actually made a tough catch before getting drilled. I’m concerned, however, because the Cowboys’ offensive line is awful and they are inept once they get in the red zone. And if I had to weigh the two feelings, I’m probably a little more concerned than encouraged.

Arian Foster owners should temper their expectations a little bit because they just experience the best fantasy day he’ll ever have, but we now have one more piece of evidence pointing to Foster being the real deal and a weekly start at RB.

I would not overreact to Frank Gore‘s rough day against Seattle. He’s the focal point of the offense, and the six receptions are encouraging. I would, however, react to Michael Crabtree‘s terrible showing (2 receptions, 12 yards). I can already tell you he’ll be my “sit ‘em” WR for this week as the rust from playing no preseason games was evident.

David Garrard will always try to lull you in with the random 3 TD performance, which he did twice last year. Don’t get overly excited. Unfortunately, he only threw 9 TDs in the other 14 games; and the Jaguars were playing Denver, remember.

We all thought the Seahawks backfield rotation was a bit more clear after Julius Jones was cut and Justin Forsett was named the starter. Well…not so much. The Seahawks re-signed Jones and then split the carries 7-8-6 between Forsett, Jones, and Leon Washington, respectively. This could be a weekly merry-go-round.

If the Browns continue to display their abject hate for Jerome Harrison next week, against the team he torched for 286 yards in 2009, then it’s time to start getting very worried. Until then, resist the urge.

How can you not be encouraged by Matt Forte‘s first day in Mike Martz’s system? Not only did Forte get 17 carries (which he could only turn into 50 yards thanks to his porous O-Line) but he also caught 7 passes for 151 yards and 2 TDs. And while Forte has historically owned the Lions, I don’t think Week 1 was a fluke.

Until further notice, I wouldn’t start anyone on the Washington offense expect Chris Cooley. Dallas has a really good defense, but the Redskins also need some time to gel.

If you own any offensive players on Carolina, I think it’s a good time to get your finger near the panic button. Don’t push it yet; it’s only Week 1, but seeing Matt Moore lay an egg against the Giants, then get hurt, means that there could be more days of 237 total yards and only one TD in Carolina’s future. On the other hand, the Panthers’ QB struggles could also mean they simply chuck the passing game and start pounding DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Those two combined for 21 carries in Week 1. My prediction is that number is their lowest combined carry total of the year.

Michael Vick is back to tempt us all, including his coach in real life. If you own Kevin Kolb, it goes without saying that Vick is a must-own handcuff. In deep or 2 QB leagues, Vick is also a very intriguing add this week. Certainly he has value next week if he starts, and you may just want to speculate here on the off chance that he eventually takes over this Eagles’ offense.

The discouraging news for Brandon Marshall owners in Week 1 is that he didn’t get into the endzone and accumulated only 53 yards. The good news is that Buffalo is very good against the pass yet Marshall was still able to hook up with Chad Henne eight times. Marshal will have many bigger days and will be PPR gold this season, like he always is.

See what I mean about C.J. Spiller being hit or miss? Incredibly Spiller accounted for only 14 total yards and still came close to fellow rookie Jahvid Best’s total for Detroit. The difference is that Best was able to score on two short TD runs, which is why I’ve liked Best’s value more as a weekly start. He won’t be as explosive, and you cannot count on two TDs or even one every week, but Best will get more such opportunities because the Lions’ offense is better (especially once Matthew Stafford returns).

One question you don’t need to ask anymore: should I start Hakeem Nicks? The answer is yes. He will have a Plaxico-like season this year.

I was wrong about Steve Breaston and Derek Anderson not being able to hook up consistently. While Larry Fitzgerald caught the touchdown, Breaston became Anderson’s security blanket, catching 7 passes for 132 yards. I should have remembered how often Anderson looked to Joe Jurevicius during his Pro Bowl 2007 season. Looks like Breaston could fill that role in a more explosive way here in 2010.

Wes Welker is back. I don’t regret telling you to take a wait-and-see approach with his knee in Week 1, but know that we’ve waited and seen…get him in your lineup and leave him there. And yes, do the same with Randy Moss, despite his post-game comments. And no, I would not be shocked to see Tom Brady end up as the #1 fantasy QB this year.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson will have many better days in 2010. Worry not.

I’m not buying Matt Hasselbeck, Mike Williams, or anyone else on the Seattle offense. Not yet. Strange things happen in Week 1, and I want to see how this team looks once the Pete Carroll Honeymoon of Exuberance is over and they realize how depleted their roster is. San Francisco is going to look back at Week 1 later in the season and just shake their heads.

I’m also not buying the other Mike Williams in Tampa Bay. He had 5 catches for 30 yards and a touchdown, but he’s a rookie. Rookie WRs are inconsistent. If you can find someone who will trade you a consistent #3 WR like Jabar Gaffney for him, do it. Now.

Of course there are many, many more observations, but I’ll have to save some for my Start em, Sit em column, which should be ready to go tomorrow.

What I’m looking for tonight

We have two Monday night games tonight, and here are the key storylines I’m interested in:

• If the Ravens get the ball inside the 5 yard line, who is taking the snaps at running back?
• How do the Jets split up the carries between Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson?
• Who is the #1 receiving option for Mark Sanchez? Is it Dustin Keller?
• Can the Ravens contain a rather porous Jets passing attack?
• How do the Chiefs split up the carries between Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones?
• How comfortable is Philip Rivers going to Malcolm Floyd as his go-to guy?
• Is Ryan Mathews as good as everyone says he is? If so, he should romp all over Kansas City.

How about you? What were your observations from yesterday’s game? What are you watching for tonight?

Monday Morning Vent: The Jerome Harrison Hate in Cleveland Continues

Last season, the Cleveland Browns were a terrible football team through the first 12 weeks of the season. They lost 11 of their first 12 games, barely could muster any semblance of a competent offense, had their GM quit mid-season, and had the editors of Webster’s Dictionary considering using the Browns team picture next to the word destitute.

Then Jerome Harrison happened.

After the Browns squeezed out a 13-6 win over Pittsburgh that no one thought was possible, the Browns turned the running game over to Harrison for the season’s final three weeks. He responded by running for 286, 148, and 127 yards, plus five scores, leading the Browns to three more victories and deciding many a late season fantasy matchup.

Thus, Harrison was a popular #2/#3 RB choice in fantasy drafts this season, especially once talented rookie Montario Hardesty went down with a season ending knee injury during the preseason. It was expected that Peyton Hillis would take some carries away from Harrison, but how could the Browns not feed Jerome the rock consistently after he (and the O-Line) basically saved everyone’s jobs last season?

Well, they didn’t feed him in Week 1, in a matchup with Tampa Bay and its woeful run D, which represented one of Harrison’s best chances for fantasy stardom in 2010.

Despite a sputtering passing game that featured one big play TD from Jake Delhomme to Mohammed Massaqoui then little else, the Browns gave their most talented and productive offensive player just 10 touches: 9 carries for 52 yards (including a 39 yarder) plus 1 catch for 9 yards. Harrison didn’t even get the lone rushing TD; that went to Hillis, who had a solid day turning his 9 carries into 41 yards while also grabbing 4 catches for 24.

Hillis, however, also had a costly fumble in the 3rd quarter. Harrison, who fumbled only twice last year, but who apparently drew the ire of the coaching staff for coughing up a few in the preseason, did not fumble.

In the Browns infinite wisdom, they decided to let INT machine Jake Delhomme throw the ball 37 times in rainy, sloppy weather. He was predictably Delhommeian, throwing two picks and amassing an Anderson-esque 59.2 QB rating.

Regular readers of MSF know that I’ve been on a personal crusade to get Harrison more touches for over two years now. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the guy just produces. Go through his career game log and tell me what happens every time he gets 15 or more touches. I’ll end the suspense: he produces. In 280 career carries, Harrison averages 4.9 per. He has 1,361 career yards and 6 rushing TDs for his career, which would be a solid year from a #2 fantasy RB. That’s the potential that Harrison has if his coaches would just stop hating him.

Sadly, Week 1 gave us little hope that the Browns’ Harrison Hate will end.

Jerome Harrison Week 2 forecast: If you own Jerome Harrison, don’t jump off the ledge yet. Week 2 represents what should be another big day for Harrison…assuming Mangini and Daboll remember what he did last year against the Browns’ Week 2 opponent: Kansas City.

In Week 15 last year, Harrison had one of the best days by a running back ever when he scampered for 286 yards and 3 TDs on 34 carries in Arrowhead Stadium. I expect the Browns to wise up and feature Harrison more, if for no other reason than to try to recapture that 2009 magic. We’ll have a better idea tonight when Kansas City hosts San Diego if the Chiefs’ run D is improved at all.

Jerome Harrison Season forecast: If Cleveland doesn’t feel compelled to let Harrison reprise his role as Chief Killer next week, then I will throw my hands up and simply offer my pity to Harrison. This guy has earned 15-20 touches a game until he proves he can’t handle it. Jake Delhomme has proven he can’t handle 37 pass attempts, yet there he was bumbling around in rainy Tampa handing the Bucs a victory.

I think we all have to take a wait-and-see with Harrison right now, especially with Kansas City next up on the schedule. His usage next week will be a clear sign of what kind of value to expect moving forward.

What’s your Monday morning vent? The comment section is yours to vent about whatever pissed you off, shocked you, or simply left you shaking your head after another Sunday of NFL action.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Does it seem to you like the first full Sunday of regular season NFL action is still a ways off?

I don’t know why, but it does for me. Then I look at the calendar and – surprise, surprise! – we’re just a week away from a full slate of games on Sunday and Monday, and a mere five days away from the official kickoff of the 2010 season in the Superdome.

And that means it is time to start thinking about your Week 1 lineups.

As I did every week last year, I will once again be delving into the matchups to highlight guys you might normally start who you should think about sitting and, on the flip side, guys you might normally sit who you should think about starting.

Update: A new fantasy football feature on MSF this year is yours truly and his bearded mug on YouTube yapping about fantasy strategy. View Episode 1 of Fantasy Football 3-2-1 here, and you can view the recently posted Episode 2 right here:

And now back to your regularly scheduled start em, sit em advice.

Now remember: the advice here is not absolute; by that I mean that just because I say “sit Brett Favre” doesn’t mean I’d start Derek Anderson over him. It just means that you should downgrade Favre from what you’d normally expect, and if you have a reasonable backup option – like, say, Alex Smith – you might want to consider starting him.

I know you know this, but I just feel better saying it so we’re all on the same page.

Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Start ‘em QB: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (vs Green Bay)

I’m not as high on Kolb as many are, mainly because I just don’t trust quarterbacks who have only started a handful of games. That said, the Packers have a banged up secondary that is essentially Charles Woodson and some scrubs, and we know that Andy Reid will not be shy about letting his young QB air it out.

Also in Kolb’s favor from a fantasy perspective is the fact that Green Bay just might have the most explosive offense in football – Indy and New Orleans included – which means that Kolb and the Eagles will have to throw early and often to keep up. That’s a great recipe for fantasy success, even for a newbie like Kolb.

Kevin Kolb Week 1 projection: 325 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 1:

• Don’t be scared about starting Philip Rivers even with Vincent Jackson out. Kansas City is not great on defense and Malcolm Floyd will step right in. Rivers is fine.
• Jay Cutler is going to be up and down this season, and he may get whacked a few times by Ndamukong Suh, but you have to start him against Detroit.
• Alex Smith is a sneaky Week 1 play. Seattle is bad all around and the 49ers have an underrated offense with passing game play makers like Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, and Josh Morgan.

Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at New Orleans)

I’m glad I don’t own Brett Favre in any leagues because he absolutely terrifies me this year. Another year of age, his apparent reluctance to return, the loss of Sidney Rice, the mysteries of Percy Harvin…I could go on and on.

Still, despite all of that, logic suggests that Favre will still be a worthwhile fantasy starter most weeks. He might not be as good as last year, but even 85-90% of that is still pretty good.

But Thursday night against New Orleans? In what is sure to be a raucous Superdome? I believe Senate Minority Leader John Boehner said it best: Hell no!

It’s become a cliche this offseason to say that the Saints showed everyone the “blueprint” for how to beat Old Favre: knock him around. But it’s a cliche because it’s true. And while the Saints weren’t exactly splitting the atom in devising this strategy, it is surely what they will try again.

Without his favorite deep threat, with the ankle apparently still tender, and with a packed house of screaming New Orleansites against them, I see the Vikings just trying to get out of this game alive. There won’t be much fantasy goodness to be had for anyone in purple but AD.

Brett Favre Week 1 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 1:

• I have to admit, I’m a little worried about Tony Romo, and the fact that Dallas opens at Washington, a team that has played the Cowboys tough in recent years, worries me even more. The Cowboys offense is struggling and I’d like to see Romo get going before I confidently start him.
• I’m also worried about the other QB in that game, Donovan McNabb. He’s been hobbled, and the Cowboys can pressure the quarterback.
• Chad Henne is facing Buffalo, a team that cannot do much right but has one of the best secondaries in football.

Start ‘em RB: C.J. Spiller, Buffalo (vs Miami)

I know what you’re probably thinking: what? Mr. Rookie Hater is suggesting we start CJ Spiller in his first ever game? What gives???

Here is what gives: Spiller is the most talented rookie running back this year and needs little help from his QB or O-line to do what he does best, which is break off big runs. He might get stuffed 10-12 times, but Spiller is already among the handful of most explosive backs in the game and only needs one or two big runs to create a productive stat line.

And in Week 1 he will not have Fred Jackson or Marshawn Lynch there to steal his touches. It will be the CJ Spiller show and he will clearly be the most talented offensive player on his team. There is no way he gets less than 15 touches, and I like his chances – especially with a little dose of NFL debut adrenaline – of turning those 15-20 touches into 100+ yards and a score.

Be cautious though. Future weeks could get dicey when Buffalo goes on the road and when Jackson and Lynch crowd the backfield.

C.J. Spiller Week 1 projection: 17 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 30 yards

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 1:

• I talked about him in this week’s Black & White debate: Matt Forte will have a very good season. In Week 1 he gets to face a normally generous Detroit defense. I like his chances for success.
• Another guy I wrote about this week is Jerome Harrison, and I like him a lot in Week 1. Tampa Bay was not good against the run last year, and Harrison no longer has Montario Hardesty to worry about.
• I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Darren McFadden might not be a bad flex option in Week 1, if for not other reason than he will be getting feature back carries. Michael Bush is hurt, so McFadden is basically all they’ve got. In a PPR league, definitely start him. In a regular league, at least consider it.

Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (vs Baltimore)

Maybe you weren’t even considering starting LT anyway; if so, good for you.

I’m definitely not as bullish on him this year as others are. In this game, I definitely wouldn’t start him. The Ravens may have question marks galore in their secondary, but this team can still stop the run, and I just don’t see Tomlinson getting enough chances to make anything happen.

Could he vulture a TD? Sure he could. And for that reason he’ll never be a terrible flex play. Still, there are plenty of guys who will get more carries, even in a backup role, against worse defenses (Thomas Jones comes to mind) that should be started over Tomlinson.

LaDainian Tomlinson Week 1 projection: 8 carries, 22 yards, 0 TD, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 1:

• I do not have high hopes at all for Brandon Jacobs this season. You shouldn’t either. I’d sit him against Carolina in Week 1.
• I know that people are high on Felix Jones, but I still have trouble trusting him. Washington is normally good on defense, so I worry about Felix making a huge impact.
• Jonathan Stewart did not play at all in the preseason. Considering that he’s in a time-share with DeAngelo Williams as it is, I’m not real high on playing him. I’d take a wait-and-see and make sure he’s fully healthy and ready to produce.

Start ‘em WR: Jacoby Jones, Houston (vs Indianapolis)

I don’t often go out on this far a limb for my main pick at a particular position, but I have a good feeling about Jacoby Jones in Week 1.

First of all, it’s Houston-Indy, which means a lot of points will be scored. Secondly, by all accounts Jones has established himself as the second best receiver on the Texans. Thirdly, Jones has Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, and even the returning-from-injury Owen Daniels to take attention away from him. I have confidence that Jones can win one-on-one matchups in the secondary, and that Matt Schaub will find him.

The Texans are treating their Week 1 matchup against the Colts like it’s their Super Bowl. I think they’ll win the game, and I think Jacoby Jones will be the #1 most added player before Week 2. (He’s only 66% owned in Yahoo leagues right now…which is crazy!)

Jacoby Jones Week 1 fantasy projection: 5 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 1:

• I like Terrell Owens to make a splash in his first game with Cincy. Plus, New England’s defense apparently is going to be awful this year.
• Jabar Gaffney is the #1 WR in Denver and has built the most rapport with Kyle Orton. I see that carrying over into a strong Week 1 performance.
• Michael Crabtree may have gotten into a shouting match with his tight end, but I think all will be well in Week 1 when the underrated 49ers offense takes on Seattle. Crabtree may be a diva, but he’s a talented one.

Sit ‘em WR: Wes Welker, New England (vs Cincinnati)

Long-term, I really like Wes Welker in PPR leagues this year, but it is important to note that Welker hasn’t sounded overly confident this week regarding his comeback from knee surgery. Sure, he’s not going on the PUP list, he’s played during the preseason, and he’ll start in Week 1…but he’s been quick to admit that he doesn’t feel like himself.

I don’t own Welker in any leagues this year, but I’d sit him in Week 1 if I had a decent option on my bench. #1, I’d like to see him produce in a real game to gain confidence. #2, Cincinnati has one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Welker might very well prove healthy and ready to go with a strong performance…but it’s far from guaranteed, and you should set your lineup accordingly.

Wes Welker Week 1 fantasy projection: 4 receptions, 47 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 1:

• I love Mike Wallace this year, but I don’t know that I love him with the Steelers’ first and second QB options on the bench. Wallace becomes a monster once Big Ben gets back though.
• Resist the urge to play Dez Bryant if you own him. He’s coming off of an injury, the Cowboys are facing Washington, and he’s competing with a lot of talented players for touches. Let him prove himself first.
• This is the first opportunity I’ve had to do this in 2010, so I’m going to take it: sit Braylon Edwards. I don’t care that he’s playing Baltimore’s non-existent secondary. He sucks and his QB has been playing poorly. Wait for glimpses of 2007 before you even think about starting Braylon.

Start ‘em TE: Zach Miller, Oakland (at Tennessee)

Zach Miller is a hot name as a TE sleeper in 2010, and I agree. His new QB Jason Campbell was very fond of Chris Cooley in Washington, and I think Miller could put up Cooley-esque numbers in 2010. Against a Tennessee defense that is tough to run on, and with nary a dependable candidate on the outside, Campbell will likely go to Miller early and often.

Zach Miller Week 1 fantasy projection: 8 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 1:

• Speaking of Chris Cooley…he’s back. Don’t forget about him. He should have a solid Week 1.
• Keep your eye on Jermaine Gresham. New England is not good defensively and Carson Palmer likes his new tight end toy.

Sit ‘em TE: John Carlson, Seattle (vs San Francisco)

For the life of me I cannot understand why so many people are high on John Carlson this year. What has he ever really done? With an over-the-hill QB and facing one of the league’s toughest defenses, I just don’t see the upside.

John Carlson Week 1 fantasy projection: 4 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit ‘em TEs for Week 1:

• Owen Daniels is going to be brought back slowly by the Texans. He could still catch a TD, but I’d prefer to sit him if I could and see how active he’ll be in the early part of the season.
• Greg Olsen sucks. Don’t be seduced by the Detroit matchup. I want to see consistency from Olsen before I consider starting him.

Start ‘em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (at Buffalo)

The Dolphins are the defense I’ve targeted for Week 1 in as many leagues as I can. They can pressure the QB, should see improved play from their two young corners, and have a great matchup in Buffalo. The Bills are still relying on Trent Edwards at QB and basically will have C.J. Spiller and maybe a deep ball or two to Lee Evans; that’s it.

Miami Dolphins D/ST Week 1 projection: 14 points or less, 3 forced turnovers

Other Start ‘em D/ST units for Week 1:

• I know Dallas is supposed to have a great offense, but I still like Washington in Week 1. They play Dallas tough and the Cowboys did not click at all during the preseason.
• I don’t like Arizona’s defense for the season, but you have to like any D facing a rookie QB in his first start don’t you? Arizona plays St. Louis, where Sam Bradford could start. If he doesn’t start, it’ll be AJ Feeley, which isn’t much better.

Sit ‘em D/ST: New England Patriots (vs Cincinnati)

The Patriots are being drafted based on reputation, but that’s a mistake. This defense has looked terrible in the preseason and is devoid of the playmakers we’re used to. Mix in a Week 1 matchup against a rejuvenated Cincy offense and I think it’s a recipe for fantasy disaster.

New England Patriots D/ST Week 1 projection: 25 points or more, 1 forced turnover

Other Sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 1:

• I know that the Giants are supposed to be much improved on D this year, but I still want to see it before I buy it.
• I like Minnesota long-term this season, but not in Week 1 at the Saints. I just have a really bad feeling about this game for the Vikings.

Now, I’ve given you some of my picks. Tell me whether you agree or disagree, and ask me any and all lineup questions, in the comment section. I’ll do my best to respond as promptly as I can.

Good luck in Week 1 everybody!

4 Reasons Jerome Harrison is Being Undervalued

Last year, Jerome Harrison entered fantasy football lore with one of the most unexpectedly productive final months we’ve ever seen. Over the season’s final three games, Harrison logged 286, 148, and 127 yards. He added five touchdowns for good measure.

More than a few playoff matchups were decided because of a player that few people (other than me, of course) had on their radar screen before the season began.

But as we get closer to the start of the 2010 season, I get the sense that people are becoming increasingly wary of Harrison. Much of this feeling comes from the fact that I’ve drafted Jerome Harrison in the 8th and 9th rounds in my last two drafts, and I feel he’s at least 2-3 rounds more valuable than that this year…with the potential to be even more valuable than that.

In this post, I’ll give you a few of the reasons why I am not nearly as worried about Jerome as so many others seem to be.

1. Harrison has always been productive when given a chance

As I mentioned last year, even dating back to his college days at Washington State the one constant about Jerome Harrison has been that he always produces when given consistent carries:

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5′9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16.

And when you look at his NFL career, the same holds true.

Just look at last season. In the four games in which the Browns gave Harrison 20+ carries, he was outstanding. Heading into 2010, Harrison is slated to have many more than four such games this year.

His career numbers, spread out over four seasons and 47 games, are: 271 carries, 1,310 yards, 6 TDs, 57 receptions, 402 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs. Take that as a stand-alone season and it’s top 10-15 RB material, which is exactly what I think Harrison has the potential to be this season.

Now, I don’t think he’ll grab 57 passes, so that projection is a bit much, but 250+ carries and 1200+ yards is not at all unreasonable, especially with the Browns’ being forced to focus on the run with INT-machine Jake Delhomme at QB and no standout WRs to speak of.

So you should trust that Harrison will produce if given carries. The question then becomes, is there someone on the Browns’ roster who could pilfer carries away from Harrison? Yes, but…

2. Montario Hardesty is very talented…but can’t stay healthy

The biggest knock on Harrison’s 2010 fantasy value has been the presence of Browns’ 2nd round draft choice Montario Hardesty. The rookie was very productive when healthy during his career at the University of Tennessee, with the key phrase there being when healthy.

Hardesty has already had multiple operations on his knee and only had one season at Tennessee in which he carried the ball more than 107 times. Much of that was due to the injury issues.

And guess what? Hardesty has already dealt with injury issues during the preseason and just got hurt again in the Browns’ most recent preseason game. While he may still prove to be a productive part of the Browns backfield in 2010, it is difficult, based on his history, to put much faith in Hardesty stealing consistent carries away from Harrison.

3. James Davis and Peyton Hillis are nothing special

As for 2009 rookie James Davis and Peyton Hillis, neither has shown the ability to be as productive an every down back as Harrison; and certainly neither possesses Harrison’s explosiveness or big play ability.

Hillis, however, will probably vulture some goalline TDs away from Harrison. That sucks, but it is what it is. Most of Harrison’s touchdowns come from outside the 5-10 yard lines anyway though, so this isn’t that big of a concern.

4. The Browns have a very underrated offensive line

No, the Browns’ offense was not very good last year, but it wasn’t the fault of the offensive line. Anchored by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas, the Browns consistently opened up holes for running backs and protected their quarterbacks. The problem? Ancient Jamal Lewis was too slow to hit the hole and neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson was able to play at a competent level with very, very little talent to throw to on the outside.

But, as mentioned above, Harrison proved that a productive running back with young, fresh legs can thrive behind the Browns’ current O-line. What he did over the last three weeks of the season showed that this unit can be a good run blocking line, and I expect that to continue into 2010.

Conclusion

Will Jerome Harrison produce like he did against Kansas City in Week 15 (286 yards, 3 TDs) every week? Of course not. In fact, expecting his Week 15-17 production extrapolated over a full season is foolish. The Browns played Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland, none of whom were especially strong against the run.

But, Jerome Harrison certainly has value as a #2 running back. You’re probably better off if you can pencil him as your #3 RB or flex player, but I think he finishes the season in the top 20.

To give you some comparisons: Harrison is more proven than Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, and CJ Spiller; he’ll get more opportunities than Marion Barber and Ricky Williams; and he’s less of an injury risk, based on his history, than Ronnie Brown or Joseph Addai (who is already dealing with a concussion). Yet, in most drafts, Harrison is going behind all of these guys. I’m not sure I’d do it in every situation, but a strong case could be made for taking Harrison about them all.

Certainly, Harrison is more valuable than the 8th-9th round where I’ve been getting him. Based on where he’s typically available, I’d start targeting Harrison in Round 7. And when you get him, either in that round or a round or two later, just know that you’re setting yourself up to get a guy who, based on his historical production and expected role, very well could produce Round 4-5 value.

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* – Jerome Harrison photo source: Fantasy Knuckleheads