Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice for Playoffs

As I mentioned in the Week 16 waiver wire sleeper picks column, it’s a good thing the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* was not my only league. I made the playoffs in three other leagues, which gave me plenty of incentive to keep working hard doing the research it takes to write these columns and answer questions all week.

And luckily, despite having some bad matchups and making a few bad decisions, I was able to advance to the championship round in one of my leagues. Considering that it’s the league I’ve been in the longest – damn near a decade now, with some of my best friends – you can bet I’ll be overturning every stone to find an advantage. (Of course, when you have Tom Brady at QB and Michael Vick for an any-position flex spot, it’s not really that difficult….)

Before we delve into the Week 16 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 15 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 15 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Stewart, Jason Witten, Miami D
• Start em misses: Pierre Garcon (damn you Austin Collie!),
• Sit em hits: Christopher Ivory (was inactive due to hammy), Ben Roethlisberger; Green Bay D; Rob Gronkowski
• Sit em misses: Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice for the Playoffs

***Carolina and Pittsburgh play on Thursday night; Dallas and Arizona play on Saturday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em QB: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (v Seattle)

Choosing the start ‘em QB this week was tricky. I try not to make the pick obvious, which ruled out telling you to start guys with great matchups who you are probably already starting like Peyton Manning (at OAK) and Tom Brady (at BUF). In addition, the four teams with the worst passing defenses are all facing inexperienced QBs that I would not want to trust in the championship round: Dallas (John Skelton); Houston (Tim Tebow); Philadelphia (Joe Webb); Jacksonville (Rex Grossman).

So why did I settle on Freeman over the other guys you see in the bulleted list below? It’s pretty simple: he is the best combination of season-long consistency and matchup.

Freeman has thrown for at least one TD in nine straight games. He also only has one game all year in which he has thrown more than one interception, and he has just six INTs on the season. He has also run for over 300 yards, which gives him an extra point or two each week. Finally, Freeman and the Bucs face Seattle in Tampa Bay this week. The Seahawks’ pass defense is pathetic, having given up 26 TD passes on the season.

It’s the championship round, or perhaps the Final Four for you, and you need guaranteed production. Few QBs in the NFL have been as a consistently a 12+ point scorer this season as Freeman has been.

Josh Freeman fantasy football Week 16 projection: 230 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 35 yards rushing

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 16:

• Matt Schaub continues to rack up yards and TDs, despite not leading the Texans to many wins. I’m sure he’ll do it again versus Denver in Week 16.
• Jon Kitna is a solid play against Arizona in Week 16. While the main weakness of the Arizona D is against the run, the Cowboys have actually had more success in the red zone throwing the ball. Kitna has two TD passes in two straight games.
• David Garrard continues to be startable each and every week. Against Washington’s defense, he’s startable again this week.
• With Buffalo likely to be down, and New England sporting an inconsistent secondary, Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a terrible option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (at Cleveland)

Joe Flacco was outstanding against the Browns when the teams played earlier this season. He threw three touchdowns and was not intercepted. As impressive as those stats were, however, they are actually an anomaly in terms of Flacco’s career numbers against Cleveland. In Flacco’s other four starts against Cleveland, he has just three total touchdowns and has been picked off twice.

Also, while Flacco’s overall numbers are very good this season, he is a guy who has not been as good on the road as he has been at home. Seven of Flacco’s eight interceptions this season have come on the road, though he has thrown 10 TDs in his seven road starts thus far.

I don’t think Flacco will put up terrible numbers this week, but with a lot of the top flight QBs having good matchups, and some usual borderline plays have really good matchups, I think Flacco slides down the list of QBs I’d want to use this week.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 16 projection: 235 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 16:

• I know that Eli Manning exploded with four TD passes last week, and now has 28 on the season, but he faces a Green Bay defense in Week 16 that is much tougher against the pass than Philadelphia.
• Sam Bradford is struggling mightily these days. The matchup isn’t terrible this week (at home v San Francisco), but you just can’t trust Sam right now.
• I am still not a big fan of Ben Roethlisberger. Carolina has given up just 16 TD passes on the season, and the Steelers offense continues to look a bit out of sync.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England (at Buffalo)

Few teams have been as bad as the Buffalo Bills against the run this year. Not only do they give up a little over a TD per game on the ground, but they give up an average of 150+ rushing yards as well. When one of the hottest backs in football is facing a defense this bad, it’s an obvious choice for the start ‘em RB.

Green-Ellis has scored at least one TD in four straight games (with two scores in two of those games). Over his last 11 games, Green-Ellis has scored in nine of them. With stout run defenses like the Jets, Bears, and Steelers included among those he has put up good numbers against, why in the world would you even consider sitting him against Buffalo?

BenJarvus Green-Ellis fantasy football Week 16 projection: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 16:

• I know that Arian Foster disappointed you in Week 15, but assuming he plays this week (he was apparently dealing with an ankle injury) there are few matchups as good for RBs as Denver. Keep Foster in your lineup.
• Rashard Mendenhall did not score or eclipse 3.7 yards per carry in Week 13 or 14, leading to some worry among his owners. He rebounded in Week 15 against the Jets with 100 yards and a TD. Carolina gives up more than a TD per game on the ground, making Mendenhall an obvious start.
• Felix Jones had 80+ total yards for the 5th straight week in Week 15. While he only has one TD during that span, and continues to lose red zone carries to Tashard Choice, Jones is worth starting against an awful Arizona run defense. He is an especially good start in yardage-only and PPR leagues. And in TD-based leagues, Choice isn’t a terrible option himself.
• Mike Tolbert is like a poor man’s BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He doesn’t usually get the touches that The Lawfirm gets, but Tolbert has scored a TD in 10 of the Chargers’ 14 games. I like those odds, especially against a so-so Cincy run D.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (v Baltimore)

Before I go any further, a quick reminder: just because someone is listed as a sit ‘em, does NOT mean that you automatically sit them. Peyton Hillis will still likely be a top 20 back this week, but I put him to highlight his tough matchup, rough three-game stretch, and the fact that he is not a must-start in Week 16.

I imagine Hillis powered a lot of teams to the playoffs, and that many Hillis owners are still going in Week 16, which is part of why I wanted to list him here. The problem is that Hillis has not been nearly as good over the last three weeks as he had been during the 11 previous weeks. Hillis has not scored a TD since Week 12, though he did rack up 108 yards rushing against Buffalo.

This week, Hillis gets to face the less than generous Baltimore Ravens run defense that has given up just five rushing TDs on the season. Ask Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush what it’s like facing the Ravens. Now, you’ll recall that Hillis ran for 144 yards and a TD against Baltimore in 4. The way I see it, that was a much fresher Hillis – he’d never had more than 68 carries in a season coming into this one – and Baltimore’s run D has improved as the weather has gotten worse.

Final verdict: Hillis is still worth starting, but he could very well be the odd man out if you happen to be stacked at RB. Don’t be afraid to sit him if that’s the case.

Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 16 projection: 65 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 4 catches, 30 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 16:

• For all those who were excited about Tim Hightower before Week 15, do you now understand why I wasn’t? 6 carries for 16 yards against the pathetic Carolina run D. That’s terrible.
• The Rams had given up just 7 rushing TDs leading into Week 15. While the Chiefs scored two against them last week, the 49ers are not nearly as good as the Rams running the football. I don’t like either Brian Westbrook or Anthony Dixon this week.
• Atlanta is pretty good against the run, especially at home. With Chris Ivory dealing with a hamstring injury, I’d prefer not to use him this week if I can help it. And after what Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush did last week (nothing) I don’t want to use either of them either.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona (v Dallas)

Cardinals rookie QB John Skelton is not very good, and he has the putrid stats to prove it. What he is, though, is smart. He does not complete a lot of passes and he does not throw for a lot of yards, but whatever he does get goes to Larry Fitzgerald.

In Week 15, Fitzgerald had 9 of Skelton’s 17 completions and 125 of his 196 yards. This comes on the heels of two games in which Fitzgerald has caught at least four passes and had at least 61 yards. The downside is that Fitzgerald has no TDs since Week 11.

Enter: the Dallas Cowboys defense.

Coming into Week 15, no defense had given up more passing touchdowns than Dallas. The Cowboys had given up a whopping 31 and then let the immortal Rex Grossman toss four more against them last week. If Grossman can throw four TDs, surely Skelton can throw at least one against them…right? If he does, we know who it’s going to.

Larry Fitzgerald fantasy football Week 16 projection: 7 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 16:

• After seeing what fresh-legged Vincent Jackson did last week, don’t you have to start him this week? Against a defense that game up two TD passes to Colt McCoy in Week 15, I think you do.
• After suffering another concussion, you have to think that Austin Collie will miss this week. If so, Pierre Garcon becomes a great option again.
• Mike Williams TB did it again. Another week, another touchdown, which is the 8th on the season for the rookie. If I think Josh Freeman is going to throw two TDs this week, certainly Williams will be catching at least one.
• Santana Moss caught two TDs last week and has another great matchup this week against Indy. Keep him in your lineups.
• Lance Moore now has 8 TD catches on the season and grabs 5-6 passes every week. What’s not to like?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Tennessee)

Bowe shocked the fantasy world by being the best WR in the league over the first 13 weeks of the season. He caught 14 TDs and during a three-game stretch from Week 12 through Week 12 he did not catch less than 109 yards or fewer than two TDs in any game. To put it simply, Bowe was awesome.

But then Week 13 happened, and Bowe got shut out. This was surprising, but he did have Champ Bailey on him. In Week 14, Bowe caught one pass for three yards as Brodie Croyle filled in for Matt Cassel. Okay, we all thought, he just needs Cassel back. Then, in Week 15, he got Cassel back and had just two catches for 53 yards against St. Louis. While that’s a nice average, it’s not a particularly strong fantasy day.

So what do you do now that we’re in Week 16, all the marbles are on the line, and the guy who carried you to the playoffs has now been worthless for three straight weeks? If it’s me, and I have decent alternatives, I sit him.

In addition to Bowe’s struggles over the past couple of weeks, he has to face a Tennessee pass D that is in the top third in league in terms of fewest TD passes allowed. While both Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter caught TD passes against the Titans last week, both were caught after the Titans had jumped out to a huge lead. I don’t think we’ll see Kansas City having to scramble playing catch up next week.

The Chiefs are built around the run and will continue to focus on the run now that their passing game has struggled for three straight weeks. Bowe is not a terrible option, but like Hillis, there is a chance that if you go this far that you have good alternatives. This would be a week to use them.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 16:

• Hines Ward continued his trend of being good one week and then not good the next. Since he’s not catching TDs, he’s really not worth gambling on.
• Michael Crabtree appeared to be ready to break out earlier this season, but he has just one TD catch over the last four games and has not caught more than three passes in any game. Josh Morgan is actually a better option right now than Crabtree.
• Mr. Hit or Miss Robert Meachem was a miss in Week 15. Unless you’re desperate, I would not want to roll the dice on him in the championship round.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em TE: Kevin Boss, New York Giants (at Green Bay)

Boss will never overwhelm you with outstanding catch or yardage totals, but he has caught TDs in three of the Giants’ last four games. With Steve Smith out for the season, it appears that Boss has stepped into the role of Manning’s trusted short and over-the-middle option. While he’s pretty hit or miss, needing a TD to have decent value, he’s been a “hit” more than not lately and New England tight ends are doing well against Green Bay so far on the Sunday night.

Kevin Boss fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 16:

• Owen Daniels had another nice day and is back to his old self, catching 4-5 passes for 60-80 yards per game. Perhaps he can even mix in a TD this week.
• Another NFC East tight end that is doing the most with limited targets is Brent Celek. He has TDs in two of the last three games and at least 50 yards in each game.
• Benjamin Watson is definitely worth starting when Colt McCoy is his QB.
• I guess it’s Rob Gronkowski‘s turn to start, right?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em TE: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans (at Atlanta)

You might think I’m crazy, seeing as how Graham is coming off a two-TD game in Week 15. However, consider the following:

• No team has been stingier against opposing tight ends this season than Atlanta.
• After seeing Graham score two TDs this week, don’t you think Atlanta will be keying on Graham this week? I do. Is the young, inexperienced Graham ready for that?
• The Saints spread the ball around so much that it is terribly to difficult to predict from week to week who will have a solid numbers other than Marques Colston and Lance Moore.
• Graham had one catch in Week 14 before catching 5 passes for just 29 yards but two TDs in Week 15. Do you want to count on a player that volatile for your title round?

I think there are safer options this week. Graham may very well prove to be a poor man’s Antonio Gates in coming seasons as a bball player turned great tight end, but this isn’t the week to trust him.

Jimmy Graham fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 16:

• Brandon Pettigrew just isn’t the same without Shaun Hill targeting him a bunch each week. You can’t trust him right now. (However, Hill may end up starting this week. If that ends up happening, upgrade Pettigrew a bit.)
• Dustin Keller had another worthless week. Tough to trust him anymore either.
• I guess it’s Aaron Hernandez‘s turn to sit, right?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em Defense: New York Jets (at Chicago)

Don’t get cute or overthink yourself come championship time. The Jets love to blitz and Jay Cutler can get flustered by blitzing teams. The Bears will also be coming off a short week, having played Monday night against the Bears. And while the Jets have struggled recently, the defense has played pretty well against everyone but New England. This is a very solid option.

New York Jets fantasy football Week 16 projection: 17 points or less, 3 TOs, 3 sacks

Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 16:

• I know that Pittsburgh is without Troy Polamalu, but getting to face Jimmy Clausen cancels that out.
• You know what I said about not getting cute and overthinking yourself? That applies to the Chicago Bears too. I am still not a believer in the Jets’ offense, which makes the Bears a solid play this week.
• The San Francisco-St. Louis game features two decent defenses and a couple of struggling offenses. I think either is a nice play in what should be an ugly, low scoring game.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em Defense: Dallas Cowboys (at Arizona)

For some reason, people have been warming to the Dallas Cowboys defense, despite the fact that it’s been one of the worst in the league all season. I have to admit, even I thought they’d be worthwhile against Rex Grossman last week, but then Grossman went out and tossed 4 TDs against them. While the Cowboys still got sacks and a few turnovers, it’s tough to be a consistent fantasy defense when you’re giving up 28 points per game. Even against John Skelton this week, I don’t like the Cowboys.

Dallas Cowboys fantasy football Week 16 projection: 24 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 16:

• In that same game, I don’t like Arizona either. I think we’re in for a high scoring Saturday night affair.
• Atlanta’s defense is very good, especially at home, but they face the Saints this week. I have a feeling we’ll see some points scored indoors with these two teams. I’d like to bench both Atlanta and New Orleans if I could.

The comment section is below for all your Week 16 questions. Ask away!

NOTE: I will not be answering questions from Wednesday, December 22rd starting at about 5:00 until Friday morning (the 24th). So don’t panic if you don’t get answers right away. I’ll do my best to get all caught up before kickoff on Sunday.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well, it all comes down to this.

As I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start ‘em, Sit ‘em post, I currently lead my Week 13 opponent (Brian Bassett of The Jets Blog) 61.22-36.20 in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*.

Before you get too excited for me though, take a look at who he still has left to play: QB Mark Sanchez; RB Shonn Greene; WR Danny Woodhead; TE Dustin Keller; D/ST New York Jets. Basically, if those five players average five points a piece, I’m toast.

What will make a loss burn even more is that the team I needed to lose, PUNTE‘s squad, did in fact lose. A win and I am a single game out of the final playoff spot with one week to play. I’ll have a fighting chance. A loss and I’m done, just playing Week 14 for pride.

Needless to say, I will be watching the Monday night game with great intrigue, hoping for a miracle.

Update: I don’t know how the hell it happened, but I won! Still alive baby!

Regardless of the outcome though, you can rest assured that I never bail on a fantasy football team as long as I still have games on the schedule. I simply do not believe in it. Plus, whether I’m still alive the Blogger Fantasy League or not, I have five other leagues for which I need to get ready for the playoffs.

As always, I share my research with you here at MSF Fantasy Sports. Yesterday I posted the Week 14 waiver wire sleeper picks column. In this post, I highlight players at every position that you should consider starting and others whom you should consider sitting.

Before we delve into the Week 14 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Jay Cutler, New York Giants D
• Start em misses: Fred Jackson, Mario Manningham, Tony Gonzalez
• Sit em hits: Randy Moss, Kellen Winslow, Arizona Cardinals D; LT
• Sit em misses: Tom Brady (HUGE MISS!)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 14.

***Indianapolis and Tennessee play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (v New England)

No, you are not seeing things. I am recommending Jay Cutler as my start ‘em QB for the second straight week. Though Cutler underperformed my lofty expectations against Detroit in Week 13, going 21-26 for 234 yards with one TD and no INTs is nothing to be ashamed of. That’s a solid 12-15 points in any scoring system and certainly good enough to have helped you win your matchup.

In Week 13, the call was easy. Cutler had been playing well, he was facing a defense that had been carved up recently by opposing QBs, and he had a great history against them. In Week 14, the call isn’t quite so easy, but the stats and trends still suggest that it’s a good one.

First of all, let’s discuss the matchup. Cutler faces a New England secondary that, coming into Week 13, was giving up the 4th post fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. (Note: I am writing this on Monday night, so I do not know how the Patriots will fare against Mark Sanchez and the Jets, but 11 games of shoddy secondary play speaks more to me than whatever they do Monday night.)

And here is the other thing about the Patriots: they do not generate much of a pass rush from their front four. New England has to use creative blitzes to get pressure on the QB, and Cutler has been doing a much better job lately of hitting his hot receivers and not getting flustered by the blitz. Just look at his numbers: Cutler has 5 TDs and 1 INT over the last three games. For the season, he has 16 TDs, just 10 INTs (down from 26 last year), and he even has 189 rushing yards. Hey, every little bit helps right?

It’s taken me until now to really buy into the Bears as an NFC playoff contender, but they cannot be ignored any longer. The same is true with Jay Cutler. He is still capable of putting up a huge day every week – witness his 4 TD, 0 INT game in Week 12 – but what makes Cutler different this year is that he is minimizing mistakes and not putting up the truly awful games anymore. Let’s hope that continues. The matchup suggests it will.

Update: Yes, even after watching the Patriots dismantle the Jets last night, I still suggest that you start Jay Cutler. Don’t forget that the Patriots had extra time to prepare for this game. While the Jets did also (neither team had played since Thanksgiving), who do you think that benefits more – a Belichick team or a Rex Ryan team? Exactly. This week, the Pats will have less time to prepare, which could give mad scientist Mike Martz and advantage over the Pats’ young secondary. The Patriots still give up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and while they are improving as the season progresses, so is Cutler.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 14 projection: 245 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Joe Flacco starts against Houston. There you go.
• Josh Freeman has been surprisingly consistent all year long. He faces a Washington defense in Week 14 that typically gives up big days to opposing QBs.
• I had Kyle Orton listed here when I originally wrote this, but then pass-happy Josh McDaniels got fired, replaced by the Denver running backs coach. With Arizona boasting one of the worst run Ds in the NFL, I tend to think Knowshon Moreno will get plenty of touches, perhaps limiting Orton’s value somewhat. He’s not a bad start, but not quite as good as if McD was still around.
• Tom Brady. Can you possibly sit him?

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Cassel, Kansas City (at San Diego)

Matt Cassel has been a revelation this season. Coming into Week 13, Cassel had thrown 22 TDs and only 4 INTs. He had been, in a word, incredible. Certainly, this kind of production was unexpected from a guy who threw just 16 TDs last year along with 16 INTs.

In Week 13, Cassel did not continue his streak of 2-TD games. He had thrown at least two TDs in four straight games, but tossed just one in Week 13. He wasn’t terrible – 17-31, 196 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT – but it wasn’t the explosive day we’ve come to expect. This pedestrian production was somewhat surprising considering Cassel’s success against Denver early in the season and their #31 ranking in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.

In Week 14, Cassel has a much less promising matchup. He faces a San Diego defense that is #2 in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. And before you say that they played terribly on defense in Week 13, understand that Jason Campbell had just 117 yards and a TD…and that was above the Chargers’ season average for fantasy points allowed to QBs.

If Cassel is your #1 QB and you don’t have a decent backup, he’s okay to play this week. I list him here because I don’t think he’ll end up as a top 12 QB in my rankings, and he could be sat for someone like Josh Freeman, Kyle Orton, or Joe Flacco if that is a decision your roster provides.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week 14 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Sam Bradford faces a New Orleans pass D that doesn’t give up many passing TDs. This is a good week to sit the rookie.
• I know that a lot of people like Jon Kitna, and I have to admit that he’s playing a lot better than I thought he would filling in for Tony Romo, but I don’t like the matchup against Philadelphia.
• Tom Brady faces a Chicago defense that tops in the league at defending opposing QBs – in terms of fantasy points and TD passes allowed. It’s tough to sit him, but if you have another good-to-very-good option, this would be the week to use it. [Update: This hasn't been posted for 15 minutes yet and I already take this back. Tom Brady is carving up the Jets as we speak. I think he's hot enough right now that matchup is irrelevant. Play him!]

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (at Arizona)

This one is pretty easy…and now that I just said that, I’m sure it’s bound to blow up in my face. But, jinxes aside, consider this:

• Arizona gives up the most fantasy points to opposing running back, as Steven Jackson found out in Week 13 when he went for 102 yards and a TD against them.
• Knowshon is coming off one of his best days in the NFL, a career-high 161 yards on 23 carries. He didn’t get into the end zone, but he ran extremely well.
• Look at Moreno’s game log. He has now been worthy of starting for four straight weeks.
• His running backs coach was just installed as the head coach. Don’t you think he’ll get his guy plenty of touches against a team that is terrible against the run?

Add it all up and it makes Knowshon Moreno a pretty obvious start candidate in Week 14. The question will be if he makes the top 10 this week. I haven’t done the rankings yet, but I expect that he will.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 14 projection: 110 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 14:

• Chris Johnson owners, I know you’re frustrated, and there are reasons for concern for the balance of the season. Week 14 is not the week to lose patience, however, as the Titans face the porous Colts run D.
• I really like Tashard Choice, as I’ve been saying in the waiver wire sleeper picks column for the past three weeks. After his 100-yard performance in Week 13, I think Choice could get a 15-20 carries against Philly in Week 14. The Eagles are in the bottom half of the league in giving up fantasy points to opposing RBs. And yes, I like Choice over Felix Jones because Choice is the one who scores the TDs.
• LeGarrette Blount continues to earn our trust. He went over 100 yards in Week 13 against a very good Falcons run D and he also scored a TD. In Week 14, Blount faces a Redskins D that let the Giants run all over it in Week 13.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at San Francisco)

Marshawn, you aren’t fooling me.

I know that many of you will be impressed with Lynch’s 3-TD game in Week 13. While it was impressive, there are plenty of reasons for you to not buy into a late season resurgence for Lynch.

• In Week 13, Lynch and the Seahawks faced the Panthers, a team that is among the most generous to opposing running backs. In Week 14, Lynch and the Seahawks face the 49ers, who are among the least generous to opposing RBs.
• Look at Lynch’s game log, paying special attention to the weeks preceding his Week 13 outburst. Not only had he not had more than 13 carries in any of the five previous games, but he’d only scored once.

So, do I think Marshawn Lynch’s 3-TD game was an aberration? Yes, although that is admittedly pretty obvious. What is less obvious is if it suggests that Lynch will become useful down the stretch. I don’t think so. His previous five games speak much louder to me than one great game against a bad run D.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 14 projection: 12 carries, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 14:

• Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams seemed to be on the verge of breaking out coming into Week 13. Then they and the Dolphins offense sputtered against Cleveland. Against a Jets D that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, two guys who split carries don’t have a whole lot of value.
• Jonathan Stewart has a nice day against Seattle in Week 13 and has looked good since returning. The Seahawks, however, have a pretty poor run D. The Falcons, Stewart’s opponent in Week 14, do not. The going could be much tougher.
• Cedric Benson faces the Steelers in Week 14. Though he is coming off a 2-TD day against New Orleans, and though he scored against Pittsburgh earlier this year, it’s still not a matchup I like. You trust Cedric Benson at your own peril.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em WR: Anquan Boldin, Baltimore (at Houston)

It’s been a frustrating year for Anquan Boldin owners. Coming into Week 13, Boldin had only six TD catches on the season. Take away Boldin’s 3-TD, 142-yard outburst against Cleveland, and his numbers would be barely pedestrian. Basically, Boldin has been nothing more than a borderline starter for most of the season.

However, signs are pointing up for Boldin’s fantasy value, at least this week. Not only did he catch a long TD for the Ravens against Pittsburgh in Week 13, but he faces a Houston secondary that is among the worst in the league in containing opposing WRs. If you own Boldin, this is the week to play him. His next two games are against New Orleans and then Cleveland again; New Orleans has been good all year against the pass and Cleveland is vastly improved since the last time Boldin saw them.

But forget about the future right now. In this column we are concerned with Week 14. Take a look at how #1 WRs have done against Houston this year. It is pretty remarkable. I’d be shocked if Boldin didn’t put up solid numbers you this week.

Anquan Boldin fantasy football Week 14 projection: 8 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 14:

• I know that Dwayne Bowe did nothing in Week 13, and I know he faces a tough Chargers pass D in Week 14, and I know I told you to sit Matt Cassel above…but…I’d still start Bowe, who has been too good this year for us to be soured by one bad game. (And this comes from a guy who has always hated and distrusted Dwayne Bowe.)
• I like Earl Bennett a lot this week. He is becoming Jay Cutler’s go-to guy, and the matchup against New England is very promising.
• Calvin Johnson continues to prove how amazing he is. Against the Bears stingy D and with a 3rd stringer in at QB, MegaTron still got into the end zone and provided nice value. Just keep him in your lineups. Please. Even if I change my mind later this week, tell me to shut the hell up and still start him. Okay? Okay.
• You know that you’re starting Greg Jennings. Also consider both Donald Driver and James Jones as a decent WR #3 options as well.
• Mike Williams TB against Washington is a nice start this week.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em WR: Any Tennessee Titans WR (v Indianapolis)

Yes, the Colts have a pretty good pass defense, which contributes to this rare team selection. More important though is the anemic recent history of the Titans passing game. Remember how Randy Moss was supposed to make the Titans more explosive? Yeah, well it hasn’t happened.

Kenny Britt is supposed to be back in Week 14, which will muddy up the Tennessee passing waters even more. And if we learned anything from the returns of Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson after long layoffs, it’s that you are usually well served to wait a week or two and let players get back up to game speed.

What Britt’s presence will do is take targets away from Moss and Nate Washington, neither of whom have done much of anything lately. We all blamed Rusty Smith after their poor Week 12 performance, but they were just as bad against the poor Jags secondary with Kerry Collins under center in Week 14.

To be perfectly frank, it seems to me like the Titans might be quitting on the 2010 season. With all the turmoil between Jeff Fisher and Vince Young, plus the five game losing streak, this is starting to seem like a lost season for the Titans. Going up against a desperate Colts team on a short week, what reason do you have to trust any of these guys? Sit ‘em all. You won’t be sorry.

Tennessee Titans WRs fantasy football Week 14 projection: 8 receptions, 90 yards, 0 TDs total

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 14:

• Mario Manningham really hasn’t played all that well with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks out. Perhaps he is just not cut out to be a #1 WR? Against the resurgent Minnesota Vikings D, I wouldn’t want Manningham to be anything more than a #3 WR, and I wouldn’t mind being able to sit him down this week.
• If Brandon Marshall comes back this week, don’t get excited. Not only will he have to face Darrelle Revis, but he’ll still have crappy Chad Henne as his QB.
• I’m not a big fan of the St. Louis WRs this week – namely Danario Alexander and Danny Amendola – because New Orleans’ pass D has been very stingy this year.
• Stevie Johnson had a rough outing in Week 13, a week after dropping the game-winning TD in OT. In Week 14, he’ll probably be blanketed by Browns rookie Joe Haden, who is becoming one of the league’s best cover corners as the season goes on.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em TE: Vernon Davis, San Francisco (v Seattle)

He’s baaack.

Well, hopefully.

Vernon Davis was outstanding in Week 13, turning four receptions into 100+ yards and a TD. In Week 14, Davis gets to face a Seahawks defense that is not good against the pass. Though they have held opposing tight ends in check decently this year, the 49ers use Davis more like a WR on some of the deeper routes where he gets most of his production.

It’s clear that Troy Smith and the 49ers have been making a more concerted effort to get Davis the ball over the last couple of weeks. In this must-win battle for the 49ers, I expect that to continue, especially if Alex Smith ends up back as the starter. He is more accurate than Troy Smith, and looks to Davis more.

Vernon Davis fantasy football Week 14 projection: 5 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 14:

• Benjamin Watson faces a Buffalo defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Coming off a 100-yards, TD performance he is a solid option this week.
• Carolina is among the more generous defenses to opposing TEs. That bodes well for Tony Gonzalez this week.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em TE: Joel Dreessen, Houston (v Baltimore)

Dreeseen has been a solid option as of late. He’s been worthy of starting three straight weeks, which isn’t bad for a 2nd-stringer only playing because of Owen Daniels’ injury. However, the signs aren’t very positive for Week 14.

First off, Daniels is expected to return. There is no telling how many targets he will get, but Daniels presence certainly will reduce Dreessen’s role some. Secondly, the matchup is terrible. No defense shuts down opposing TEs more than the Ravens.

Joel Dreessen fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 20 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 14:

• Visanthe Shiancoe just isn’t getting the red zone looks he got last year. He couldn’t take advantage of a Bills defense that has given up a lot of points to opposing TEs, so what makes us think he’ll do it against the Giants, who do a good job of minimizing TEs?
• Brandon Pettigrew has been much better with Shaun Hill in the lineup this year. Without him, Pettigrew’s numbers have suffered. He had 5 catches for 36 yards against the Bears in Week 13, and I think that’s about as much as we can expect from him right now.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina)

You know that I love targeting whatever defense is facing the Carolina Panthers and Jimmy Clausen. With the emergence of Mike Goodson and the return of Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers have been putting up a little bit more fight lately. Still, anytime you can face an inexperienced and unproductive QB like Jimmy Clausen, you have to like your chances.

Here is the other reason I like Atlanta this week: the strength of their defense is against the run. Yes, LeGarratte Blount has a solid day in Week 13, but the Falcons have still been very consistent containing opposing running games this year. Running the ball is all that Carolina can do. If the Falcons inhibit their ability to do so, it could put the game in Jimmy Clausen’s hands. That’s a great recipe for any defense.

Atlanta Falcons fantasy football Week 14 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 14:

• I like both the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks defenses in Week 14. I don’t expect a particularly high scoring game, and there should be plenty of sacks and turnovers to go around.
• Buffalo’s offense has struggled for two straight weeks now. The Cleveland Browns defense continues to improve. I like the Browns on the road this week against Buffalo.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Tennessee Titans (v Indianapolis)

Call this one a hunch.

Tennessee’s defense has not been the reason it’s been losing lately. In fact, the Titans have held their last three opponents under 20 pts. And with the Colts coming in having given up four Pick 6′s in the last two games, you might think Tennessee’s D is one you want to play. And maybe it is, if you look at things strictly based on statistics, but I wouldn’t.

You can chalk this one up to my belief in Peyton Manning. I think he will be extra cautious with the football and limit his mistakes. I also think that the short week benefits the Colts more than it benefits the punchless Titans, who will be facing their first week playing for nothing. The Colts are still very much alive in the AFC South race and have not stopped fighting despite playing poorly. The Titans, other than Cortland Finnegan obviously, seem to have stopped fighting.

I believe Peyton and the Colts get their offense going in primetime. Do I have more than a hunch to base this off of? Not particularly, other than what I’ve already stated. But sometimes you have to trust your gut, and my gut says stay away from the Titans until they prove they haven’t quit on the season.

Tennessee Titans fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 14:

• I like St. Louis‘ defense when it plays at home. I do not like it as much on the road, especially not against Drew Brees and the Saints.
• I trusted San Diego‘s defense last week and they did nothing. Against a very balanced, explosive Chiefs offense in Week 14, I’m not too excited about trusting the Chargers again.

The comment section awaits. Make ‘em good questions this week. Let’s all get into the playoffs and do some damage!

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well, it’s getting down to crunch time for my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. Coming into Week 11, I was just a game behind the two leaders of my division, needing to crack the top two to make the playoffs.

Unfortunately, my team threw up a dud, scoring just 80.28 points. It led to a blowout loss to a team that had been 3-7 before facing me. Strong performances from Matt Ryan, MJD, and the unstoppable Dwayne Bowe did me in as Brandon Marshall, Dan Carpenter, Adrian Peterson, and Eli Manning all let me down.

What’s sad is that had I played Ryan Fitzpatrick over Eli and BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Mike Goodson over Adrian Peterson, the matchup would have been much closer. But I do not second guess myself for either choice, especially the Peterson start. He starts every week. Had I decided to get cute and start The Lawfirm over Peterson, it would have been right in this singular instance but still decidedly the wrong move in all but the most myopic of viewpoints. Hopefully you agree.

That’s my philosophy in a nutshell, as I’m sure you’ve realized if you read this site regularly. I harp on it over and over because I don’t think it can be harped on enough. Play your stars until they force your hand.

Adrian Peterson has been very good this year, mostly consistent, and is so explosive that he could score 25 points any week against any defense. A little dip won’t sour me on him, even a two-week dip, nor should it sour you on him.

Marshall, on the other hand, is a totally different story. He’s parlayed a top-10 target total into one measly touchdown. And with Tyler Thigpen looking like a deer in headlights against Chicago, I’m now more worried than before about Marshall’s long-term prospects for this season.

Brandon Marshall has actually been listed as a sit two straight weeks in this column, and both times I was right. Unfortunately, I lack WR depth on my BFL team, so I’ve had to play him. Now that I have Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson back, perhaps it will light a fire under Marshall’s ass and get him going.

Oh wait, it doesn’t quite work like that, does it?. They aren’t actually teammates and I’m not actually their coach/GM. Anyone else get confused about this by the time Week 12 rolls around?

With that said, let’s just move along now.

Update: HELP! I NEED YOUR HELP!

After my lineup “mistakes” last week, I decided I should seek out the counsel of you, the loyal and insightful reader. So I am requesting your answers to a few questions about my Week 12 lineup. And to entice you to participate, I’m sending free P&G gift packs to the people who give the most well thought-out and reasoned advice.

Click here: Week 12 advice for Jerod’s Blogger Fantasy League Team

Before we delve into the Week 12 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 11 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 11 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Mark Sanchez, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Pettigrew, Baltimore D
• Start em misses: Felix Jones (damn me for trusting him!!! See!!?? Trust your principles!!!),
• Sit em hits: Jahvid Best, Kellen Winslow, Washington D
• Sit em misses: Matt Ryan, Big Mike Williams (no TD as I predicted, but I have to respect the 6 receptions, 100+ yards)

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 12.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (v Jacksonville)

I swear that this is not a self-serving/talk-myself-into-confidence pick. Seriously. I promise.

I know that Eli threw up a dud in Week 11, hurt by his three INTs and fumbles. I also know that he is without Steve Smith for another week and that Hakeem Nicks is also now out for a few weeks. And no, I’m not particularly excited about trusting Mario Manningham as the #1 wide receiver.

But…and it’s a big but, consider the following about Eli’s Week 12 opponent:

• The Jaguars are 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (264.6).
• The Jags are also 28th in the league in TDs allowed this season (20).
• The Jags are just middle-of-the-pack when it comes to picking passes off (9 in 10 games).
• The Jags are 31st and one of only three teams that allows a passer rating of 100.0+ (103.9)
• Here are the point totals of the Jags’ four road opponents this year: 38, 26, 42, 17 (and that 17 was the Cowboys before Wade Phillips got fired, so it barely counts).

Why am I listing so many stats? Because I want you to understand that even with Smith and Nicks out, Eli is still a solid start in Week 12. Is it mainly matchup? Yes. But who cares? If he’s a top 10 QB in Week 12, you want him in your lineup. I think he will be.

Finally, consider that Colt McCoy probably plays on the offense with the worst outside playmakers in football. Yet he went 17-28 for 241 yards and a TD. Is that great? No. But it’s passable. If that is your floor (and I think for a guy like Manning it is) and you can reasonably expect more, I like those odds.

Eli has thrown at least two TDs in six straights games. I expect that streak to continue. And don’t look now, but Eli plays Washington and Minnesota the next two weeks. If you own him, stick with him despite the injuries to his WRs.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 12 projection: 250 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 12:

• You know what team is tied with Jacksonville giving up 20 TDs this season? The New England Patriots. They play Detroit on Thanksgiving day, and I expect Shaun Hill to toss at least two TDs as he tries to keep up with Tom Brady-Bieber.
• Ben Roethlisberger is a must-start this week, taking on a Buffalo defense that has also given up 20 TD passes this year.
• Joe Flacco has thrown at least two TDs in three of his team’s four home games. He is known as a better player at home than on the road. Against Tampa Bay’s middle-of-the-pack pass D, expect a solid day.
• Matt Cassel has thrown 8 TDs in his last three games. Seattle is in the bottom third of the league against the pass. He’s a sleeper top 10 QB for Week 12. Say it with me now: all hail Dwayne Bowe!

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em QB: Michael Vick, Philadelphia (at Chicago)

Who would I rather have for the remainder of the 2010 season – Eli Manning or Michael Vick? Vick, no question. But I’d rather start Eli in Week 12, and it has everything to do with the matchup.

Since I listed out the Jags’ defensive numbers, allow me to do the same with the mighty Chicago Bears D:

• The Bears have given up a league-low 6 TD passes this year while picking of 15 passes (tied for second).
• The Bears are in the top half of the league giving up just 212.4 passing yards per game.
• No team gives up fewer points per game than the Bears (14.6, tied with Green Bay).

Now consider the following stat line:

• 1 passing TD, 0 INTs, 2 rushing TDs

While that is about half of the first quarter for Vick against Washington, it is the cumulative total of Vick’s production in the game before and after that anomalous outburst against the Redskins. Put another way: against the Colts and Giants, two defenses clearly worse than the Bears, Vick produced just 1.5 TDs per game.

Philly may very well win in Week 12, and Vick could end up producing well, especially if the Eagles’ play-making secondary can pick off Jay Cutler and give the offense a short field; but I’ve been burned more than a few times this year playing guys who were going against the Bears.

I think there are 10-12 safer options this week than Vick. He’ll always have huge potential, but I see the risk/reward weighted a little bit more toward the risk in Week 12.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 12 projection: 220 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, 1 TD (rushing or passing)

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 12:

• Jon Kitna has thrown 3 TDs in back to back weeks. You probably would love to play a guy playing in Thanksgiving Day game to make it more fun. Despite both of those realities, don’t play Kitna. The Saints have given up only 7 passing TDs all year.
• Doubting Josh Freeman hasn’t been very smart this year, yet I’m going to do it in Week 12. Baltimore is tied for 6th giving up only 12 TD passes this year, and Ed Reed is back causing havoc in the secondary. Also, Tampa Bay has gotten throttled by the good teams it has played this year.
• Carson Palmer has thrown 8 TDs over his last four games, yet it should be obvious that he sits against the Jets on Thursday night.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em RB: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota (at Washington)

Alright look, I know what you’re thinking: hey, wait a minute, Jerod has Eli and AD on his BFL team. He’s just listing them as start ‘ems to make himself feel better!

I promise you that’s not the case (or at least not totally the case). And I also promise you that listing Peterson here is not a cop-out. Here are his stat lines the last two weeks:

• at Chicago: 17 carries, 51 yards, 4 receptions, 24 yards, 0 TDs
• v Green Bay: 14 carries, 72 yards, 1 reception, 16 yards, 0 TDs

The glaring stat there is the lack of TD production. For people who drafted Peterson in the top 4 (like me), much more is expected on a weekly basis. I’ve seen a few people getting frustrated with AD, threatening even to bench him, so I want to nip that crazy talk in the bud by naming him my start ‘em RB for Week 12.

There are a couple of reasons for this: 1) because AD is as talented a back as there is in the game, and you don’t sit that kind of talent; and 2) because his matchup is stellar in Week 12. Washington gives up the 9th most points in the league (24.5 per game) and also surrenders 131 yards rushing per game. I think AD should be able to do something with that.

If you want more bold start ‘em choices at running back, look below (and I’ll even do four “other” picks instead of the usual three to compensate for making the obvious choice here), but just make sure Adrian Peterson is in your lineup this week and every other week he’s the starting running back in Minnesota.

Adrian Peterson fantasy football Week 12 projection: 125 yards rushing, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 30 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 12:

• Ahmad Bradshaw definitely needs to be in your lineup in Week 12. Jacksonville is 30th in the league giving up 12 rushing TDs this year. Brandon Jacobs, despite only getting 10 carries the last two weeks, is also a sneaky start. The Giants will lean on the run more with Nicks and Smith out.
• Look, I own BenJarvus Green-Ellis and I’ve been doubting him all year. He’s responded to those doubts with 7 TDs and a 4.3 yard average, including at least 87 yards rushing in three of the last four games. With Detroit 28th in the league in TDs given up (11) and also giving up 130.6 rushing yards per game, Green-Ellis has earned enough trust to be a top-20 back despite the presence of Danny Woodhead and the return of Fred Taylor.
• Shonn Greene has now carried the ball at least 10 times in three straight games, and at least 15 in the last two. This is a trend that I think will continue as the weather worsens. Cincinnati gives up a TD per game. I think Greene gets it this week.
• Jamaal Charles owners are undoubtedly frustrated that Thomas Jones, not Charles, got two TDs in Week 11. Charles still averaged 7.3 yards per carry on 12 carries and had 4 receptions for 38 yards. Charles is a must-start. Just remember that. (And Jones is a solid, but not slam-dunk, start in Week 12 as well.)

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (v Pittsburgh)

Yup, I’m talking about another one of my players. And to be honest, he’s been my MVP the past two weeks. Look at what FJax has done:

• v Detroit: 25 carries, 133 yards rushing, 1 TD, 6 receptions, 37 yards, 1 TD
• at Cincinnati: 21 carries, 116 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 3 receptions, 13 yards

A few relevant stats of note about the Detroit and Cincinnati run defenses: they are two of the seven teams who have given up double-digit rushing TDs this season.

Now, if you hadn’t been paying attention the last two weeks, and I had told you that the above numbers were Adrian Peterson’s and that the numbers I cited for Peterson were actually Jackson’s, you would have believed me. But no, I cited them right. Fred Jackson has been one of the best fantasy players in the entire player pool the last two weeks.

But now for the reality check:

• 10 carries, 14 yards, 2 receptions, 16 yards, 0 TDs

That was the production that Darren McFadden had against the Steelers in Week 11. Yes, the same McFadden that I told you to start and who has been as explosive as anyone in 2010. It was a nice slap-in-the-face reminder that my old adage still rings true: don’t start running backs who are facing Pittsburgh. (Trust your principles Morris!!! You idiot!)

Fred Jackson is not as individually talented as Run DMC, nor has Buffalo been nearly as adept at running the football as Oakland has been this season. That makes me very wary of FJax in Week 12.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 12 projection: 55 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 4 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 12:

• Brandon Jackson teased everyone with a two-TD performance in Week 10. He then fell back to earth with 66 total yards and no TDs in Week 11. Against an Atlanta D that has given up only three rushing TDs this season, Jackson is a guy to sit.
• Jahvid Best or Maurice Morris, whoever starts at RB for Detroit against New England should be sat. The Lions will have to take to the air against New England, and it will further neutralize their anemic running game.
• Mike Goodson is a decent option if you’re in a yardage-only league. In a TD-based league, Goodson doesn’t have nearly as much value despite two straight 100-yard performances. His offense doesn’t provide scoring chances and he faces a Cleveland D that has given up just three rushing TDs this year (though, granted, the Browns have given up one in back-to-back weeks).

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em WR: Sidney Rice, Minnesota (at Washington)

Seriously! I swear I didn’t pre-plan this to highlight my BFL team in the top-line start/sit picks. It’s just working out that way. And honestly, can you disagree with any of my picks so far?

Here is why I like Sidney Rice a lot this week:

• Brad Childress was fired this week, lifting a huge weight off the Vikings locker room. Leslie Frazier was installed as the head coach, ensuring a smooth transition, and he’s already said that Brett Favre will start in Week 12.
• The matchup is beautiful. Washington gives up 280.1 passing yards per game and has surrendered 18 TD passes in 10 games. Don’t let Week 11 fool you…their decent performance came against the petulant Vince Young and the immortal, um, Rusty Smith (who?).
• Rice got his feet wet against an outstanding Green Bay pass defense and had a respectable 18.7 yard per catch average on three receptions.

Assuming Brett Favre doesn’t retire between now and Sunday (seriously, that would chance this pick), I think this is the week to roll the dice on Sidney Rice. The return could be nice assuming the Vikings offense can get off the ice. And now I will probably pay the price…for using too many words that rhyme with Rice. (I ran out…sorry.)

Understand this: I would not start Rice over proven top-20 WRs, simply because we haven’t seen him produce a big game yet this year. So remember that these picks aren’t blanket picks, just choices I want to highlight because I think they might go against the norms or trends for the week. I probably have more confidence in Sidney than most; hence, his inclusion here.

Update: I posted my Week 12 rankings today and Sidney Rice came in at #14 ahead of “proven top-20 WRs” like DeSean Jackson and Percy Harvin. But the more I thought about that Washington matchup, and the more I thought about how much of a weight is off the Vikings’ shoulders with Childress gone, I think a big day is in order. Call it a gut feel.

Sidney Rice fantasy football Week 12 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Holy crap. I just realized I have now picked the Vikings starting RB and WR for two of my three start ‘em choices so far. This from an offense that produced three measly points in Week 11.

I just got really, really nervous.

But then I remembered that Washington gives up 24 points per game, so AD and Rice could do exactly what I predicted (two TDs and one TD, respectively) and the Vikings would still be under Washington’s scoring defense average per week.

Considering what the firing of Wade Phillips and promotion of Jason Garrett has meant in Dallas (two straight wins) I see something similar happening in Minnesota. Let’s hope so. My picks and BFL season rest on it!

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 12:

• Steve Johnson starts. Every week. Especially against a Pittsburgh team who will stuff Buffalo’s run and force Ryan Fitzpatrick to pass.
• Mario Manningham is an outstanding start choice this week. He is the lone experienced WR left for Eli Manning to throw to, and I think he gets involved early and often against Jacksonville.
• Robert Meachem scored two TDs last week and he’s the kind of speedy deep threat who can take advantage of Dallas’ weak safeties. I like him to score at least one TD on Thanksgiving Day.
• Nate Washington gets to face the Houston secondary. I don’t know who will be throwing to him – probably some guy named Rusty Smith (run Rusty, run!)  – but someone is going to put up some yardage and a TD against Houston. Washington has been the most consistent receiver in Tennessee recently, so he’s the default pick.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em WR: Terrell Owens, Cincinnati (at New York Jets)

Revis Island is back in full effect. Since the Jets’ bye in Week 7, here are the numbers of the #1 WRs against New York:

• Week 8: Greg Jennings – 6 receptions, 81 yards, 0 TDs
• Week 9: Calvin Johnson – 1 reception, 13 yards, 0 TDs
• Week 10: Mohamed Massaqoui – 2 receptions, 8 yards, 1 TD
• Week 11: Andre Johnson – 4 receptions, 32 yards, 0 TDs

Now look, I haven’t watched much of these games. so I don’t know if Revis was blanketing the above WRs all game or if it was more of a team effort. You know what? I don’t care. These are the clear #1 receivers on their respective teams and they accounted for 13 receptions, about 140 yards, and 1 TD in four weeks.

Since Owens is one of the most targeted WRs in the NFL, and has been better this year than Chad Ochocinco, I expect him to get the same treatment as the guys above. That probably won’t end well for T.O.  Plus, Owens’ old legs are slowing down a bit. He has just 7 receptions for 127 yards and a TD over the last two weeks.

Terrell Owens fantasy football Week 12 projection: 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 12:

• I love Hines Ward as football player, but he has just 9 catches and less than 100 yards over the last four weeks. Good matchup or not, Ward continues to tumble down the WR ranks.
• Steve Smith of Carolina is barely a pedestrian receiver this year. While Cleveland’s pass D will give it up through the air, do you have any confidence in whoever Carolina trots out at QB to take advantage?
• Randy Moss. Sit him. Now, I know what you’re thinking: but Jerod, he’s facing HOUSTON!? And you’re right, he is. That’s why I recommended Nate Washington above. Moss also was facing Washington last week, nearly as bad through the air as Houston, and he did nothing. Until Moss catches more than one pass, the onus is now on him to prove that he has a fantasy pulse. I don’t care if he’s opening things up for Chris Johnson. He’s not catching balls. Until he does, sit him…even against Houston.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em TE: Benjamin Watson, Cleveland (v Carolina)

The Browns still don’t have a true #1 WR. Sadly for Colt McCoy, Benjamin Watson is the teams’ leading receiver in terms of yards (Peyton Hillis is #1 in receptions). With such a dearth of outside options, we know that the hobbled McCoy or whoever is playing QB for Cleveland will look to the tight end early and often.

For the record, here is what tight ends have done against Carolina the last three weeks:

• David Thomas: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs (Jeremy Shockey added 1 reception for 7 yards and a TD)
• Kellen Winslow: 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD
• Todd Heap: 5 receptions, 69 yards

That’s pretty consistent production against the Panthers, and keep in mind that those teams have plenty of options ahead of the tight end in their offense. I expect a nice day from Watson in Week 12 out of necessity and because of the matchup.

Benjamin Watson fantasy football Week 12 projection: 6 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 12:

• I am stubbornly sticking with Vernon Davis. His talent is so great that I can overlook the two 1-receptions games he has sandwiched around his nice-and-should-have-been-better Week 10 performance. With the 49ers absolutely desperate and playing a weak Arizona defense in Week 12, I think Davis has a much better game. (If not, I’ll give up on him…I swear!)
• Brandon Pettigrew needs to be in your lineup as long as Shaun Hill is the QB. I’ve said it all year and I’ll keep saying it and the stats will keep backing me up.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em TE: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (v Cincinnati)

See? I’m not completely stubborn. Despite touting this guy for week after week as a solid start and good bounceback candidate, Keller has consistently disappointed me. Over the last four weeks he has produced an awful 11 receptions for 136 yards and 0 TDs. That’s pathetic.

Cincinnati is no great defense, so Keller isn’t a horrible play, but he’s the 5th or 6th option for Mark Sanchez now that Santonio Holmes has emerged as a go-to guy, and there simply aren’t enough targets to go around.

Dustin Keller fantasy football Week 12 projection: 3 receptions, 35 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 12:

• Everyone got really excited about Anthony Fasano after he recorded a 100-yard game two weeks ago. Then he reminded everyone that he sucks with his 1 reception stinker in Week 12. Considering his overall lack of talent and the QB issues in Miami, I’d stay away.
• Despite his stellar Week 10 performance, three of Jermaine Gresham‘s last four performances have seen him catch three or fewer passes for 33 or fewer yards. With the Jets on the schedule this week, I’d stay away.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘em Defense: Cleveland Browns (v Carolina)

Did you know that the Browns are in the top 10 in the NFL in scoring defense? It’s true. They’re tied with Tampa Bay for 10th giving up just 20.6 points per game. Seeing as how the Panthers average just 11.7 points per game (4.3 fewer than the 31st ranked team) this is an obvious arbitrage opportunity if Cleveland remains unowned in your league.

I really shouldn’t have to say anything else.

Cleveland Browns Defense / Special Teams unit fantasy football Week 12 projection: 13 or fewer points, 2 TOs, 2 sacks, and a better than average chance of a defensive TD

Other sit ‘em Defense / Special Teams units:

• You have to like the New York Jets against Cincinnati. Carson Palmer enjoys throwing it to the other team and Cedric Benson likes to fumble. Plus, the Bengals just suck balls in general.
• The Philadelphia Eagles lead the league in INTs. Chicago’s quarterback is INT-machine Jay Cutler. What’s not to like?

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ‘em Defense: New England Patriots (at Detroit)

Did you know that the Lions are in the top half of the league in scoring offense? They are averaging a solid 23.4 points per game. The New England Patriots are in the bottom third in the league in points given up per game (24.2). Based on the numbers, I’d say there is a solid chance the Lions score somewhere around 23-24 points.

The fact that they are at home helps, as does the excitement and motivation of playing on Thanksgiving Day in what amounts to their 2010 Super Bowl. I like the Lions to make this close and make the Patriots defense a below average choice in Week 12.

New England Patriots Defense / Special Teams unit fantasy football Week 12 projection: 23 or more points, 2 TOs, 1 sack

Other sit ‘em Defense / Special Teams units for Week 12:

• Tampa Bay may have shut out San Francisco on the road in Week 11, but the 49ers have the second-most anemic offense in the NFL. Baltimore is much better, especially at home.
• I realize Dallas has scored a D/ST touchdown in the each of the last two games, but predicting those is a futile effort. New Orleans has the kind of offense that can destroy Dallas’ defense (which is very weak at safety), so the probable points given up are not worth the outside chance of another defensive/special teams TD.

The comment section awaits your questions. Make ‘em good ones! We all need wins this week, so let’s go get ‘em together.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Q&A

Last week I opened up the Start em, Sit em post by telling you about how was I was off to a strong 5-2 start in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy League*. With the stakes being two tickets to the Super Bowl, you can imagine how much focus I’ve put on doing well in this league.

This week, I must regretfully inform you that I lost in Week 8, falling to 5-3 with a 14 point loss. The worst part? A win was sitting on my bench.

I wrestled all week with Fred Jackson versus BenJarvus Green-Ellis at my RB#2 slot. I finally settled on Jackson because he had gotten about the twice the number of touches as BJGE in weeks 6 and 7, and because the Chiefs had allowed five rushing TDs on the year against only three allowed by the Vikings.

I struggled with this choice right up until kickoff, but went with Jackson and ultimately felt good about it.

Then Week 8 played out, Jackson got only 75 total yards with no scores, and I watched The Lawfirm torch the Vikings for 100+ yards and two TDs. Needless to say, it was a painful and bitter pill to swallow.

But you know what? I don’t regret my decision. I analyzed it, weighed a number of factors, and went with the player I had the most confidence in. It wasn’t like I just forgot to set my rosters or was forced to make a shotgun decision at the final moment.

It’s fantasy football though, which means that every prediction we make is inherently unpredictable. We just make the best educated guesses we can and hope for the best. All of us do. Even the most astute fantasy player.

The key is to have a consistent strategy and use sound reasoning based in statistical fact. If you do that and a decision turns out wrong? Well, you lick your wounds, learn whatever you can from it, and then turn your attention towards next week. I can’t bring BenJarvus Green-Ellis onto my active roster for Week 8, but I certainly can do everything possible to make a better start/sit decision in Week 9.

And here’s hoping I can help you make better decisions as well.

Before we delve into Week 9, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 8 with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack.
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about last week. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 8 Recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Drew Brees, Ryan Torain; Washington D, Pierre Garcon (though not to the extreme I thought)
• Start ‘em misses: Kellen Winslow;
• Sit ‘em hits: Dallas D, Chris Ivory (and all Saints RBs), Matt Schaub
• Sit ‘em misses: Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker; Brandon Pettigrew

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, and Redskins are on bye in Week 9.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Seattle)

Yes, I’m a little nervous about this because Seattle’s D is typically much better at home than on the road. However, the Seahawks were giving up 260+ passing yards per game coming into Week 8 before allowing Jason Campbell to look like a good NFL quarterback – 310 yards, 2 TDs.

While it’s true that Eli Manning can be inconsistent and will throw interceptions, he also has thrown 9 touchdowns over the last three weeks (against 5 INTs) and has one of the best WR corps in the NFL. With the Giants now running well behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, it is opening their passing game even more. With a lot of QBs on bye this week, Eli is certainly a top 10 option.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Philip Rivers is facing Houston. You do the math. It computes whether he has any healthy WRs or not.
• Aaron Rodgers may have struggled mightily against the Jets last week, but did you see what David Garrard did to Dallas? Make sure you keep ARodg in your lineup.
• Joe Flacco, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs over the last two weeks, is a very good option against the Miami Dolphins.
• Chad Henne is clearly going to keep throwing. You could do a lot worse than Henne against Baltimore, as I outlined in this week’s waiver wire sleeper article.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em QB: Matthew Stafford, Detroit (v New York Jets)

Matthew Stafford returned from injury in a big way in Week 8. He torched the Washington Redskins for 200+ yards and 4 TDs, against only one INT. Naturally, Calvin Johnson was a huge beneficiary of Stafford’s return.

However, while I like Stafford a lot long term, this week I am not too high on him with the Jets’ now-healthy secondary coming to town. Remember, Washington entered Week 8 31st in the NFL against the pass, so Stafford’s solid day shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise.

In Week 8, Darrelle Revis and the Jets held Aaron Rodgers to at 15-34 day and only 170 yards. At this point in their careers, Rodgers is a much better player than Stafford. And while the Jets statistically have not been dominant against opposing QBs this season, they also haven’t been fully healthy. It appears like now they are.

Stafford is going to have plenty of good games over the balance of the season. Week 9 just won’t be one of them.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 9 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Mark Sanchez played awful in Week 1, then got hot over the next few weeks, and has seemingly regressed again recently. You have to sit him until he proves he can produce consistently again.
• Carson Palmer has a QB rating of 78 against the Steelers during his career. He didn’t play well last week against Miami, with one of his TD passes being an absolute gift. I don’t like him this week.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick did not play terribly Week 8, but after four straight weeks of at least two TD passes, his numbers against KC were a bit underwhelming. Facing the Bears (who have given up only 4 TD passes all season) in Week 9 means Fitz will likely be underwhelming again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em RB: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (at Buffalo)

This one really isn’t hard. The Bears are struggling to protect Jay Cutler and the Bills are the worst team in the NFL against the run. In case you needed the Bills’ defensive deficiencies to be reiterated, the Chiefs top two backs ran 41 times for 254 yards. So…start your running backs when they’re playing the Bills.

Regarding Forte specifically, he’s only averaging 3.9 yards per carry this year, and he only has 3 rushing TDs, but the Bills give up 5+ yards per carry. Average those out and I think we can reasonably expect Forte to average around 4.5 yards per carry. The bonus with Forte is that he catches passes. He’s added 3 receiving TDs this year to go along with 26 catches and 300+ yards.

All in all, this is the kind of week you have Forte for. The Bears will undoubtedly ride him in a must-win game, and the matchup suggests he’ll produce.

Matt Forte fantasy football Week 9 projection: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 40 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• I mentioned LeGarrette Blount in the sleeper picks article this week. Against a so-so Atlanta run D, he needs to be in your lineup this week if you have a starter on bye.
• Darren McFadden is facing the very solid KC defense, but he went over 100 yards for the second straight week in Week 8. He plays.
• Seattle has a very good run defense, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both playing very well right now. Bradshaw is a definite must-start, and Jacobs’ ability find the end zone makes him a solid flex option too.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a great outing in Week 8 and now deserves to start every week. Danny Woodhead found his way into the end zone again and is valuable as well.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em RB: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (v Pittsburgh)

If you think I just look for whichever running back is playing Pittsburgh and then say “sit ‘em,” well you’re right. I do. And seeing as how Benson hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3, I think it’s even more reasonable this week.

When you look at Benson’s history against the Steelers, sitting him becomes even more obvious. In four career games against the Steelers, Cedric has run the ball 53 times for an average of only 3.5 yards. He’s scored just one TD.

The Bengals are scoring through the air right now, when they score at all. I still like Benson long term this season, but certainly not this week.

Cedric Benson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards rushing, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• Felix Jones and Marion Barber. Sit them until further notice. I like no Cowboys running backs until they inevitably turn it over to Tashard Choice and his 5.1 yard career average.
• Ronnie Brown has not been good at all this year. I’ve stayed confident in him, but that ends now. Ricky Williams has been the better, quicker back and is the guy who scored in Week 8. Against Baltimore, I say sit Ronnie.
• The Bears are very good defensively and Fred Jackson simply hasn’t proven to be a touchdown threat. It’s a good week to sit him.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em WR: Calvin Johnson, Detroit (v New York Jets)

You are probably thinking a couple of things:

• Isn’t starting Calvin Johnson obvious?
• How could you say start CJ when you’re telling me to sit Matthew Stafford?

As to the first question, my answer is yes, it should be obvious. Calvin Johnson is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. Hell, he may be the most talented. Need proof? His four TDs over the last three games should have done it, all coming with two different QBs under center. So yes, starting him should be obvious. But with the Jets on the schedule, I know many of you will get cold feet and ask me if you should.

This is me saying, emphatically, yes!

As to the second question, see how I’m projecting Matthew Stafford for one TD even though I’m telling you to sit him? Well guess who I think gets that TD? That’s right: Calvin Johnson.

Look, if you follow my fantasy advice you know that I always trust my stars and the guys with proven track records. It doesn’t work out every time, but it does work most of the time. And making the right decision most of the time is all you can hope for when it comes to fantasy football. Starting Calvin Johnson will be right most of the time. So start him all of the time.

Calvin Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 9:

• Terrell Owens keeps producing and you simply cannot sit him right now. With Cincinnati likely being unable to run, they’ll have to throw. The matchup isn’t great, but T.O. is clearly the #1 option right now and those targets warrant starting him.
• Dwayne Bowe only had 3 catches for 16 yards in Week 8, but it was the third straight game in which he has caught a TD. Facing an Oakland team likely to be without its top corner, Bowe has weaseled his way into must-start status with something we’ve never seen from him before: consistency.
• Whoever is playing WR for the Chargers in Week 9 – be it Malcom Floyd, Patrick Crayton, Buster Davis, or the guy whose name is hard to spell – will be productive. The Chargers face the Texans’ pass D, and we know how that usually goes.
• Don’t get too down on Miles Austin (like I did in Week 8). He had 7 catches for 117 yards in Week 8 and should be good against in Week 9. Dez Bryant was also solid. Curiously, Roy Williams has not been able to get going with his old friend Jon Ktina. I’d sit him until he does.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em WR: Steve Johnson, Buffalo (v Chicago)

I am well aware that Steve Johnson has caught a touchdown pass in five straight games. He’s also faced some pass defenses during that streak that I wouldn’t be too scared of. (Remember, Revis wasn’t healthy when they faced the Jets). In Week 9, Johnson faces a Bears D that has given up only four passing touchdowns all season.

When players have not done well, we often justify playing them by saying that they “are due”. Well, shouldn’t there be an equivalent for a guy who is probably playing over his head during an extended period of time?

Johnson is a fine player, and he is emerging as a solid fantasy option, but he’s not going to catch a touchdown every week. Johnson will probably put up 4-5 catches and 50-60 yards even if he doesn’t grab a TD, but you can probably do better than that.

Steve Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 9:

• When everyone went nuts about Deion Branch after his first game back with Tom Brady, I was the voice of reason telling you not to get too optimistic. A few subpar games later and it looks like I was right. Branch will be too unpredictable to count on.
• I’m not a real big fan of any Jets receivers – Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes especially – until they show some consistency and their QB gets back on track.
• You all laughed when I didn’t jump completely onto the Mike Williams (SEA) bandwagon. He responded by catching one pass for 27 yards in Week 8. The Tampa Bay Mike Williams has officially become the better option.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em TE: Todd Heap, Baltimore (v Miami)

Heap was my primary TE pickup in the waiver wire post this week. The reason? He caught two TDs his last time out and the Dolphins have been generous to tight ends this year. Heap won’t catch more than 3-4 balls max, but he’s clearly a guy Joe Flacco looks to in the red zone. With so many good TEs on bye this week, that’s good enough for me.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week 9 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs in Week 9:

• I still like Dustin Keller. With Mark Sanchez struggling, I think he goes back to the guy he was clicking with early in the season. Detroit provides an inviting matchup with which to do so.
• Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore are both decent options in Cleveland as long as Colt McCoy is the QB. Even if he’s not, who else will Seneca Wallace or Jake Delhomme throw to?

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (v New York Jets)

Pettigrew did catch a TD in Week 8, but he only had 2 receptions for 8 yards overall. With the Jets coming to town a week after holding Green Bay tight ends to 1 catch for 5 yards, Pettigrew is not a guy I would want to be counting on. He’ll have plenty more good games this season; Week 9 just probably won’t be one of them.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 9 projection: 2 receptions, 15 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 9:

• Jermaine Gresham’s production has really stagnated. I wouldn’t expect it to pick up against the Steelers.
• There aren’t enough touches to go around in New York for Kevin Boss to get his. This guy should not really be owned in any leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em Defense: New England Patriots (at Cleveland)

The Patriots defense has not been all that spectacular from a fantasy perspective this year outside of their monstrous performance against the Dolphins. However, wouldn’t you like your chances with a Bill Belichick defense against a rookie QB with very few play-makers? I would, and that’s exactly what we get in Week 9 with the Pats likely going up against Colt McCoy.

Yes, the Browns are coming off a bye, but the Patriots also bottled up the potent Vikings offense pretty well. That bodes well for a solid Week 9 performance.

New England Patriots fantasy football Week 9 projection: 14 or fewer points, 2 TOs, 3 sacks, potential for a TD (special teams or terrible McCoy pass)

Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 9:

• The Chiefs should pretty much be started every week in every league right now. Week 9 against the Raiders is no exception.
• Green Bay’s D against Jon Kitna and no running game? Yes please.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em Defense: Seattle Seahawks (v New York Giants)

I trusted the Seahawks in Week 8 and they let me down. Sure, they were on the road, and they’re back at home in Week 9, but I’m still not sold on Seattle as an elite defense. With the potent Giants offense coming to town, I think the Seahawks could struggle to put up fantasy numbers outside of the inevitable INTs they’ll get from Eli.

Seattle Seahawks fantasy football Week 9 projection: 24 or more points, 2 TOs, 1 sack

Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 9:

• I was way too high on Tampa Bay’s defense in Week 8. Though they scored defensive touchdowns, those are impossible to predict and they otherwise got torched by the Cardinals. Playing the Falcons in Atlanta does not lead to much confidence.
• I think the Miami-Baltimore game could end up producing a lot of points. I wouldn’t be too excited about either D playing for me.

And that’s it. The comment section is yours. Ask away.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Update 10/22: This week’s player rankings have been updated. Make sure to check them out in addition to reading this post.

I am watching Neftali Feliz close out the Yankees in Game 3 as I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start em, Sit em post. Right now, this series is through three game, the Rangers have absolutely dominated all but one inning, yet the Yankees find themselves down just a game.

If AJ Burnett can somehow pitch well in Game 4 and the Yankees win, they will find themselves at a very fortuitous 2-2…but 2-2 nonetheless.

Keep this in mind with your fantasy teams.

Maybe you’ve started off slowly this year with plenty of underperforming players. Maybe you grabbed one or two lucky wins and are just hanging on right now. Well, hang on. Work a little harder. Study the waiver wire. Study your players and the matchups to make better choices. You never know when you’re team can get hot and rattle of 3, 4, 5 victories in a row.

At this point, you’re probably stuck with 80-85% of your roster, so don’t give up. There is still plenty of season left to fight your way into the playoffs.

And with that said, let’s fight our way to victories in Week 7.

But first, as always, a quick look back at Week 6:

• Start ‘em hits: Ben Roethlisberger, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mike Wallace
• Start ‘em misses: Chicago D, Chris Cooley
• Sit ‘em hits: Tom Brady, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Tate, New England D
• Sit ‘em misses: Todd Heap

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Lions, Texans, Colts, and Jets are on bye in Week 7.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Deion Branch” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. But if you own Roy Williams, yes I’d start Roy. I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Buffalo)

The Bills were off in Week 6. During the first five weeks of the season they gave up 2+ TDs per game (11 total) and picked off only one pass. Don’t be fooled by the their low yardage total allowed (200 per game). That was mostly a function of teams getting up early and often on Buffalo and then choosing to run the ball.

Joe Flacco has disappointed many of his fantasy owners, but he’s coming off of a 2-TD, 285-yard performance against New England, and now has 6 TDs and 1 INT over the last four weeks.

The Ravens will be smarting after their OT loss to the Patriots and cannot afford a letdown against the Bills. They’ll come out ready to play and Flacco will have a solid day.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 7 projection: 250 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 7:

• Tony Romo is a bag full of good and bad. He throws for lots of yards, throws lots of TDs, and also throws lots of INTs. But he throws, a lot, regardless of the game, and that’s why you need to keep him in your lineups.
• Chad Henne is not a guy I trust long-term this season. However, with Pittsburgh sporting the league’s best run D, the Dolphins will be forced to pass. If Colt McCoy could have a solid day against Pittsburgh with virtually no weapons, Henne should be able to put up some decent numbers with Brandon Marshall if you’re desperate for bye week filler.
• I like Sam Bradford against Tampa Bay, even with his no-name group of wide receivers. The Bucs gave up a nice day to Drew Brees in Week 6. Take about 3/4 of that and I think that’s what you can get from Bradford in Week 7.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (vs Washington)

I just do not trust Jay Cutler. More specifically, I don’t trust his offensive line to give him any significant amount of time to effectively play his position. (And I also don’t like nor trust Jay Cutler. At all.)

In Week 6, Cutler returned from his concussion and threw 290 yards. That doesn’t sound bad, expect when you qualify it by saying that he was 17-39 and threw no TDs. And this comes on the heels of Cutler throwing 1 TD against 2 INTs in his previous two games.

I realize that Washington has given up a lot of passing yards this season, but they can also rush the passer pretty well. With the way the Bears’ passing game has sputtered the last two weeks, I want to see it succeed before I trust Cutler again.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 7 projection: 275 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 7:

• Matt Ryan threw two TDs last week against Philly, but both came after the Falcons fell behind 21-0. In Week 7, I expect the Falcons to be leading the Bengals, and thus able to run more. Plus, Cincinnati has a couple of good corners that will make life tough on the Falcons’ WRs.
• Carson Palmer does not start until further notice. And I’m not sure that notice will ever come. I certainly don’t like him against a pissed off Atlanta defense.
• Matt Cassel threw for 3 TDs against Houston’s D. While Jacksonville’s pass D is nothing to write home about, they are not historically bad like Houston’s is. Go ahead and trust Cassel if you want to. I won’t.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Oakland)

It’s been a long season for Knowshon Moreno owners. The talented second-year back has been hobbled by a hamstring injury most of the season, although he did score TDs in each of the first two weeks. Finally, Moreno got back on the field in Week 6, and he did okay. He only got 12 carries against the Jets, but he did earn 4 yards per carry, which is a decent sign that the hammy is better.

The reason Moreno is a good start in Week 7 is his matchup. Denver faces an Oakland team that was ranked 31st in the NFL against the run coming into the game, giving up 147.8 yards per game rushing. In Week 7, Frank Gore torched the Raiders for 149 yards rushing. I’m not sure Moreno will do that well, but if you’ve stayed patient with him, you have to play him this week.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 7 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 7:

• Cedric Benson has run well the last the two weeks. As badly as Carson Palmer has been playing, you know they’ll keep giving it to Benson. Keep him in your lineup.
• Ahmad Bradshaw continues to put up solid numbers. He also has a career 4.7 yard average against the Cowboys, who have given up solid fantasy days to three straight runners.
• I was not high on Marshawn Lynch in Week 7, yet he got 17 carries and scored a TD at the Bears. He should find the going a bit easier against Arizona, which has one of the league’s worst run defenses.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em RB: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, Miami (vs Pittsburgh)

I like Brown and Williams long-term, because I think the Dolphins have to run the ball to win games. That said, neither Brown nor Williams has done a whole hell of a lot so far this year (one combined TD) and they don’t exactly have a great matchup in Week 7.

Pittsburgh was first in the NFL in rushing yards allowed heading into Week 6. After holding the previously red hot Peyton Hillis to just 41 yards rushing last week, that #1 ranking should sustain.

If you own both Ronnie and Ricky, Brown is the one to play. He got 19 carries last week against Green Bay and remains the #1 option. But these two are flex plays at best this week, and I would love it if I had the luxury of sitting them for this week.

Ronnie Brown fantasy football Week 7 projection: 55 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving

Ricky Williams fantasy football Week 7 projection: 35 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 7:

• The Seattle Seahawks have been outstanding against the run this year, and they are even better at home. I would not want either Beanie Wells nor Tim Hightower playing this week.
• Fred Taylor was not back this week, yet BenJarvus Green-Ellis only got 10 carries (though he did score a TD). The loss of Randy Moss means New England will not become more balanced and unpredictable. That means there is no New England RB that we can count on anymore, even The Lawfirm. (But do keep your eye on Danny Woodhead.)
• I know that Carnell Williams is the #1 running back in Tampa Bay…but what exactly does that mean? He ran 10 carries for 18 yards in Week 6 against a pretty weak New Orleans run D. I know he had a nice day catching the football, but that is not something you can expect weekly based on his track record.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em WR: Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia (at Tennessee)

I am writing this section on Sunday night, and while that is a long way from Week 7 Sunday, here is what I know right now that makes me confident listing Maclin here:

• He is coming off the best game of his career, a 7-catch, 159-yard, 2-TD effort against a pretty good Atlanta defense.
• He has now proven he can succeed with either Kevin Kolb or Michael Vick at QB.
• Maclin played very well after DeSean Jackson went out with what is being described as a “severe concussion”. I’d say it’s very doubtful that Jackson plays next week, which makes Maclin the #1 option in a passing game for a coach who calls more pass plays than any coach in NFL history.
• Philadelphia plays Tennessee next weekend. They were one of the league’s worst pass defenses last year and they were 26th in yards allowed per game heading into Week 6.

Add all of this to the fact that Maclin had established himself as a solid every-week start before Week 6, he is a must start and a possible top 10 WR in Week 7.

Jeremy Maclin fantasy football Week 7 projection: 8 receptions, 135 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 7:

• Roy Williams continues to be a fantasy monster and is inching his way towards must start territory. He now has 5 TDs in his team’s five games. Argue with that.
• Get your Saints’ WRs ready. New Orleans plays Cleveland next week, which is giving up at least two TDs to almost everyone. It’s hard to predict who will go off, so just get Colston, Moore, and Meachem in your lineup. And if you’re really hit hard by the bye week, consider Devery Henderson too.
• Mike Wallace responded to Big Ben’s return with a nice day that included a touchdown. A lot of people (me included) were high Wallace before the season as a strong value once Ben returned. Keep him in your lineups as long as Ben stays out of bathrooms (public ones anyone…while drunk…with women…)

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em WR: Deion Branch, New England (at San Diego)

I know that a lot of people will disagree with this, but I am going to ask you to challenge yourself not to  be myopic. More specifically, let’s not overreact to one great game from Branch.

Keep the following things in mind:

• Before Week 6, Branch had not caught more than 6 passes in a game since 2007.
• For his career, Branch is a guy who averages a TD every four games.
• Even when he was in New England the first time, Branch was never a 1,000-yard receiver or a big TD producer.
• The Patriots’ Week 7 opponent, the Chargers, entered Week 6 as the best pass D in the NFL. They were giving up just 163.7 yards per game and had surrendered only 5 TD passes. Sam Bradford only had 198 yards and a TD against them in Week 6, which falls right in line with the average.
• San Diego lost in Week 6, so they’ll be pissed off and focused for a home battle with New England in Week 7.

I recommended Branch as a decent waiver wire option this week, but don’t go overboard with this guy. It is going to be a different Patriots player getting the majority of the targets every week. Remember how frustrating it was to own Branch when he played for New England before? Why would it be any different now that Branch is in his 30s and has the same coach and QB?

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 7 projection: 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 7:

• Devin Hester returned a punt for a TD in Week 6, but you can’t count on that every week. Unfortunately for Hester owners, that is where the majority of his value will have to come now as the team is reducing his WR workload.
• Louis Murphy didn’t do a damn thing against San Francisco last week, which we should have expected since Bruce Gradkowski wasn’t starting. If Jason Campbell is playing QB for the Raiders, you sit all of their WRs.
• I am not a big fan of the Jacksonville WRs next week – which includes Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker. Both are inconsistent anyway, but they’re playing an angry, embarrassed D and David Garrard is rarely great on the road.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em TE: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh (at Miami)

Heath Miller’s value was limited without Roethlisberger in the lineup. In Big Ben’s first game back, we saw what Miller is capable of, as he accumulated 50 yards and a TD. He only had two catches, but I expect that number to increase as the weeks go forward.

The Dolphins tend to give up lots of catches and yards to opposing tight ends. Green Bay didn’t take advantage in Week 6, but that is mostly because they were adjusting to life without Jermichael Finley. Miller should find some nice openings against the ‘Phins in Week 7.

Heath Miller fantasy football Week 7 projection: 5 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 7:

• Brandon Pettigrew had 7 more catches in Week 6. That means in every week other than Week 1, Pettigrew has had either 6 catches or a TD. That’s solid and consistent.

Yes, Pettigrew would be a good Week 7 start…IF HE WERE PLAYING! My bad, the Lions are on a bye this week. Thanks to the commenter who pointed this out. Still, Pettigrew is a solid option for the future.

• If you’re in a pinch this week, and Colt McCoy is starting again at QB, look at Ben Watson and Evan Moore in Cleveland. They are the two most reliable receiving threats on the team, and Mohamed Massaquoi could be out with a concussion.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em TE: Zach Miller, Oakland (at Denver)

The Raiders passing attack is anemic when Jason Campbell is playing QB rather than Bruce Gradkowski. Case in point: Miller had just two catches in Week 6 and didn’t find the end zone. If Campbell plays again in Week 7, consider sitting Miller.

Zach Miller fantasy football Week 7 projection: 3 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 7:

• Anthony Fasano caught a TD pass against the Packers. It was also his only catch of the game. He is far too inconsistent to trust.
• I still don’t get the general affinity for John Carlson I see from many people. He is way too inconsistent and is not a top-12 TE. You can do better.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em Defense: Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona)

I am not a believer in the Seattle Seahawks as a playoff team this year. However, when they are at home, this a defense that plays pretty well. Against a one-dimensional offense with undrafted rookie QB, I like the Seahawks even more. That’s why they get Sunday against the Cardinals.

Seattle Seahawks D fantasy football Week 7 projection: 17 pts or fewer, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 7:

• San Francisco gets to face the hapless Carolina offense this week. That makes the 49ers a decent option.
• The Redskins face the Bears, which means lots of sacks and probably a few turnovers. Take advantage.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em Defense: Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants)

The Cowboys have lots of stars on defense, but they aren’t stopping anyone. Plus, they don’t force turnovers, and rarely score defensive TDs. There is very little upside here and almost no reason to start them right now. Oh, and the Giants’ offense has been playing pretty well lately.

Dallas Cowboys D fantasy football Week 7 projection: 20 pts or more, 2 sacks, 0 TOs

Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 7:

• I’m not real high on Tennessee, not after seeing what Philly did to Atlanta last week.
• Green Bay’s defense worries me until Clay Matthews gets back. Make sure he’s playing before you play GB over a decent alternative.

Alright, that’s it for Week 7. Drop your questions below and I’ll answer as quickly as I can.

Fantasy Football 3-2-1: Analyzing Early Surprises & Disappointments

In this week’s episode of Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I dissect three players who have performed below expectations so far this year who I think will start to rebound soon because of schedule and/or circumstance.

I also discuss two players who have over-performed their preseason valuations, but who I don’t see maintaining their current pace.

And, as always, I offer you one general piece of advice…which just happens to be the same piece of advice I gave you last week. (Yes, it’s that important!)

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start, Sit Roster Advice and Q&A

Well, Week 3 was a lot like Week 1.

My top-line start ‘em, sit ‘em picks didn’t fare so well, but my secondary picks and Q&A recommendations were mostly solid.

Let’s hope this bad week followed by good week trend continues with the top-line choices in Week 4. I have a lot of making up to do to Joe Flacco and Mike Wallace owners…

Here is the carnage:

• Start ‘em hits: Tony Romo, Dustin Keller
• Start ‘em misses: Dez Bryant (so close on this one!), New England
• Sit ‘em hits: Kellen Winslow
• Sit ‘em misses: Joe Flacco, All Dallas RBs (Barber had a solid day), Mike Wallace (HUGE miss), Philly D

(Note: I recommended Knowshon Moreno but he injured his hamstring and was inactive for Sunday.)

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

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Now onto the Week 4 picks.

Remember that the Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, and Buccaneers all have their byes in Week 4.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Picks

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, ATL (vs SF)

It’s time to start taking Matt Ryan seriously as a #1 fantasy QB. Here are his stats the last two weeks:

• Week 2: 225 yards, 3 TDs (vs Arizona)
• Week 3: 228 yards, 2 TDs (vs New Orleans)

In Week 4, Ryan has a nice matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, a team that supposedly had a good defense. Well, after being torched by Matt Hasselbeck (2 TDs) in Week 1 and then by Drew Brees in Week 2 (2 TDs), Matt Cassel threw 3 TDs in Week 3. Keep in mind, Cassel had been terrible coming into this game.

The 49ers may play well because at 0-3 their backs will be against the wall, but Ryan is proving that he, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez are one of the most potent QB-WR-TE trios in the NFL. It’s time to start getting him in your lineup regularly.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 4 projection: 230 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 4:

• Tom Brady has another seemingly tough matchup against the Dolphins. After throwing multiple TDs versus the Jets and Bills, two very good pass defenses, it’s time to understand that Brady never comes out of your lineup.
• The Eagles’ D in 2010 is not what we’ve come to expect. I think Donovan McNabb will have a nice day in his return to Philly.
• The New York Giants are not very good right now, especially on defense. Jay Cutler should be able to take advantage.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em QB: Carson Palmer, CIN (at Cleveland)

You may have seen Joe Flacco light up the Cleveland Browns and think that Carson Palmer might be a good option against them in Week 4. If you think this, I disagree with you.

It’s not that the Browns are great against the pass, they aren’t. They’re just okay. Truth be told, Anquan Boldin simply outplayed Eric Wright and Joe Flacco found him. I don’t think the Browns were quite as bad as the numbers indicate; just that one matchup was.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have a terrible passing attack and will likely start trending more and more towards the run. Look at Carson Palmer’s numbers the last two weeks:

• Week 2: 167 yards, 0 TDs (v Baltimore)
• Week 3: 195 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs (v Carolina)

That is putrid. And keep in mind, the Panthers had been giving up multiple TD passes to everyone. And the one passing TD was to Cedric Benson out of the backfield. Where are OchoCinco and T.O.?

If it weren’t for some garbage time yards in Week 1 when the Patriots game was already decided, Palmer’s numbers would look even worse than they do. This guy is basically Trent Dilfer now. If he couldn’t do anything against Carolina, who do you trust him against?

Carson Palmer fantasy football Week 4 projection: 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 4:

• Eli Manning struggled to get the ball to his receivers in Week 3 against a Tennessee pass defense that is nothing special. I like him still this season, but a matchup with the Bears may not be ideal.
• Joe Flacco finally got in sync with Anquan Boldin in Week 3. Unfortunately, the Ravens now face the Steelers. Anyone else foresee a 9-6 game?
• There are a bunch of other QBs like Alex Smith and David Garrard that you should sit, but do you need me to tell you that?

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, CLE (vs Cincinnati)

How can you not take notice of Peyton Hillis after what he did in Week 3? Against the always stout Ravens’ run defense, Hillis rumbled for 144 yards and a TD on 22 carries. He also added 36 yards on 7 receptions.

Yes, these were the type of numbers we were expecting from Jerome Harrison. And yes, this is me publicly eating crow for being so high on Harrison before the season and during Weeks 1 and 2. But stubbornness gets you nowhere in fantasy football. I watched a lot of the Browns-Ravens game and Hillis was the second-best player on the field (after Anquan Boldin).

One of the reasons so many people were high on Harrison is that the Browns have a solid O-Line and will be able to run on people this year. Cincinnati is very good against the pass, but did give up a decent YPC average in Week 3. With no passing game to speak of, Cleveland will keep riding Hillis.

Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 4 projection: 105 yards rushing, TD, 5 receptions, 30 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 4:

• Too many people are too worried about Michael Turner. Folks, when he is healthy, you start him. San Francisco is supposed to have a good run defense, but I haven’t really seen it yet. Turner should have a strong day.
• I know that you’re getting very worried about DeAngelo Williams right now…but this is not the week to sit him. New Orleans gives up rushing yards and lots of fantasy points to opposing runners. If I hadn’t already typed out the Hillis recommendation above, I would switch it to DAW. Keep him in your lineups.
• Ahmad Bradshaw keeps on producing. The fumbles and brain farts won’t help, but the Giants have no one else and Bradshaw, based on his production, is inching into top-20 RB territory.
• Well, Darren McFadden just keeps producing. So keep starting him.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em RB: Jahvid Best, DET (at Green Bay)

The Packers play the run well, which makes this a tough matchup for Best. Add to that the fact that he struggled against a good run D in Week 3, plus had to leave the game with an injury, and it equals a less than optimal week for Best owners.

Don’t be completely blinded by the five TDs he has so far this season. He scored two on goalline carries in Week 1, then exploded in Week 2 against an Eagles defense that has not been great this year. He’s been good, don’t get me wrong…but probably not quite as good as his numbers suggest.

Exercise caution with Best this season and remember that he is just a rookie, and this may be one of those weeks when you go with an alternative.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 4 projection: 55 yards, 0 TDs, 3 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 4:

• Until further notice, Jerome Harrison has to be on your bench. Hillis is going to be the guy, at least for now, in Cleveland.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis stepped up for New England this week after Fred Taylor got hurt. Once again, let me reiterate: stay away from the New England backfield. It’s just too much of a crapshoot.
• Consider Ray Rice’s automatic position in your lineup this week. You know that I say always play your stars, but this might an exception. Pittsburgh’s run D is ferocious and Rice has yet to get into the endzone this year. He also had to leave the Week 3 game early, so he could be a bit dinged up. Don’t sit him unless you have some really good alternatives. If you are so blessed, it’s something to think about about.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em WR: Santana Moss, WAS (at Philadelphia)

Santana Moss is entering must-start territory now that he and Donovan McNabb have found some rhythm together. Moss had 16 catches coming into Week 2 and was one of the most targeted WRs in the league. In Week 3, he continued to be a favorite of Donovan McNabb and finally got into the endzone.

This week, the Redskins head into Philadelphia, which marks the return of Donovan McNabb to his old city. I have a feeling McNabb is going to want to throw a few of his patented deep balls and remind the Eagles what they are missing. Those deep balls will likely go to Moss. I’ll never guarantee a TD for anyone…but I feel really strongly that Moss gets into the endzone at least once this week.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 4 projection: 6 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 4:

• Kevin Walter got into the endzone again. That’s three weeks in a row. You have to respect that.
• Too many people are asking me about Steve Smith of the Giants. I play him every week. He hasn’t gotten into the endzone this year, but he had 9 catches for 103 yards last week. He’s Eli Manning’s favorite target.
• Jeremy Maclin scored again this week..twice. Michael Vick keeps looking to him. You know DeSean Jackson is a must-start, but it’s time that Maclin got some respect too. This is a solid top 30 WR.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em WR: Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh, BAL (at Pittsburgh)

How much do I dislike these two this week and moving forward? Let me count the ways…

• First off there is the matchup. Baltimore plays Pittsburgh, which means that scoring opportunities will be limited.
• Secondly, there is the lack of production so far this year. Mason scored in Week 2, but otherwise neither of these two has done much of anything yet this year.
• Thirdly, there is the emergence of Anquan Boldin in Week 3. He caught 3 TDs, a couple of which Flacco just launched blindly in his direction. I think Flacco continues going to to Boldin.
• Fourth, there is the fact that Ray Rice and Todd Heap are above Mason and Housh in the Baltimore offensive pecking order.

Add all of this up…and you have a couple of guys that I’d sit on a regular basis.

Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh fantasy football Week 4 projection (combined): 6 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 4:

• All 49ers WRs. This team absolutely cannot pass the ball. Stay away. Stay far away.
• It’s safe to stick a fork in Bernard Berrian. He only had two catches against Detroit, which was supposed to be his breakout game. H
• Strongly consider sitting Steve Smith (CAR) in Week 4 if you have good alternatives. The Panthers have a better matchup in Week 4 for their passing game (New Orleans) but it’s pretty clear that Jimmy Clausen is going struggle…a lot. That hurts everyone on the Carolina offense.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em TE: Vernon Davis, SF (at Altanta)

I already know that the Vernon Davis questions are coming this week, so I figured I’d issue this preemptive strike: start him.

Davis only had 3 catches in Week 3, and didn’t get into the endzone, but he had 12 catches in the two weeks prior and at least 70 receiving yards in both games. Unfortunately, the 49ers offense is just struggling right now and not offering Davis the same number of red zone opportunities that he got last year en route to 13 TD catches. While no one expected that number to be repeated, no one thinks he’ll only catch 2 (his amount in ’08) either.

The Falcons gave up 70+ yards and a TD to Jeremy Shockey in Week 3. With the 49ers desperate for a win, they’ll have to feed their best receiver. I think Davis steps it up and has his first big week of 2010.

Vernon Davis fantasy football Week 4 projection: 7 catches, 95 yards, TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 4:

• Zach Miller caught a TD in Week 3 and faces a Houston defense that will give up a lot through the air. He’s a solid start this week.
• Aaron Hernandez led the Patriots in catches and yards in Week 3 (6, 65). He plays a Miami defense that will give up some fantasy points to opposing TEs.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em TE: Todd Heap, BAL (at Pittsburgh)

Todd Heap has just four catches against the Steelers over the past two seasons. Granted, two of those went for touchdowns in one game last season, but I consider that more of a fluke. The overall lack of production is the trend.

Heap is having a nice bounce back year so far in 2010, but I don’t see Baltimore having many scoring opportunities against Pittsburgh. Plus, with Troy Polamalu roaming around out there, Heap might have one or two catches taken away by big hits.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week 4 projection: 3 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 4:

• Owen Daniels still isn’t quite back to his must-start self. I still say resist the urge to start him until he starts catching 5-6 passes again.
• Michael Vick clearly doesn’t have the same rapport with Brent Celek that Kevin Kolb did. Celek is not a must-start anymore, though I wouldn’t drop him.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em D/ST: Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland)

Much was made of the Bengals’ wide receiving corps in the offseason, but the defense is clearly the dominant unit on this team. Perhaps if the Bengals start running the ball more, the offense can catch up.

While there won’t be as many fumbles in Week 4 as there were against rookie Jimmy Clausen in Week 3, the Browns remain a one-dimensional offense. As long as the Bengals contain Peyton Hillis, they should have, at worst, a decent day.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 4 projection: 14 or less points, 2 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 4:

• The Falcons are playing the 49ers. Right now, I shouldn’t need to say anything more.
• The Saints are playing the Panthers. Again, right now, I shouldn’t need to say anything more.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (vs New England)

I like the Dolphins defense this year, but the Patriots are putting up points against everyone. If the Jets and Bills couldn’t contain Tom Brady and the passing attack (at least from a fantasy perspective), then I doubt the Dolphins will either.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Week 4 projection: 20 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 4:

• I think the Giants-Bears game will be high scoring. I would prefer not have either starting for me.
• The 49ers defense was supposed to be good this year. It’s not. Sit them. It’s probably okay to drop them at this point.

As always, the comment section awaits your questions. We’ll have the rankings and sleepers posted later this week, plus our regular live chats. Good luck everyone!

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* – Matt Ryan photo credit: Phil Skinner via Atlanta Journal Constituion

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Roster Advice and Q&A

As I anticipated it would be, Week 2 was much better for me than Week 1. It’s always nice to be able to see everyone play a real game before trying to prognosticate how they will do.

Week 2 wasn’t perfect, but still a rather solid performance.

The hits and misses:

• Start ‘em hits: LeSean McCoy, Chris Cooley, Oakland D, Austin Collie
• Start ‘em misses: Eli Manning
• Sit ‘em hits: Brett Favre, Felix Jones, Owen Daniels, Buffalo Bills D, Michael Crabtree
• Sit ‘em misses:

But no resting on our laurels. Week 2 is over. Let’s turn the page to Week 3 and see who should start and who should sit.

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

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Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em QB: Tony Romo, Dallas (@ Houston)

I know you’re wary of starting Tony Romo after Weeks 1 and 2. He’s racked up a lot of yardage (600+ yards) but has only 2 TDs to show for it, plus 2 INTs. Unfortunately for Romo owners, such inefficient stats are looking like what we should expect in 2010. The Cowboys can rack up yards, but this team simply has not shown an ability to find the end zone consistently, nor have they established a running game to take the pressure off Romo and help move the chains.

But in Week 3, Romo has a matchup you absolutely must exploit. Here are the numbers for the QBs the Houston Texans have played during the first two weeks of 2010:

• Peyton Manning: 40-57, 433 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
• Donovan McNabb: 28-38, 426 yards, 1 TD

What else do I need to say? Start Romo. Then worry about him in Week 5 (Dallas has a bye in Week 4) when he faces Tennessee.

Tony Romo fantasy football week 3 projection: 350 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• It’s probably time to start buying Kyle Orton as a guy you can start weekly and feel good about. With 4 TDs through two games and Indy up next, Orton’s worth a look.
• Brett Favre has been my sit ‘em QB two weeks in a row. And two weeks in a row I’ve been right. Detroit is the opponent in Week 2, and both Jay Cutler and Michael Vick have put up good numbers against them. I think Favre gets rolling – a little bit – this week.
• Whoever plays QB for the Eagles, whether it’s Michael Vick or Kevin Kolb, start ‘em. Jacksonville’s defense is not very good.
• Yeah, a fourth one. It’s a good week for QBs! Carolina is giving up lots of points to opposing QBs. Start Carson Palmer as he, Ocho, and TO pad their otherwise woeful stats.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)

What!? But Flacco owners have been licking their chops for the Cleveland game! Yeah, well so were the Tampa Bay and Kansas City offenses too. This was the result for the QBs:

• Josh Freeman: 182 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Matt Cassel: 176 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs

So while the competition hasn’t been great, the Browns are giving up an average of less than 200 yards and only 1 TD per week. While Baltimore certainly has more weapons on offense than Tampa Bay or Kansas City, they’ve looked putrid so far this season against two pretty solid defenses.

Cleveland is no Jets or Bengals D, but they are decent. With all of the startable QBs who have favorable matchups this week, I’d love to sit Flacco until he figures out how to use his new weapons. And, for the record, Flacco threw only one TD in two games against Cleveland last year.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 3 projection: 225 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• So Vince Young is still a threat to get pulled for Kerry Collins? I know it was Pittsburgh, and they are really good on D, but I’m sitting Vince against a stout Giants front four.
• That’s two straight stinkers from Matt Cassel. Sit him until further notice. (Hopefully you weren’t planning to start him anyway.)
• Anyone getting excited about Josh Freeman’s four TDs in two games? Good, hope you enjoyed it. He won’t do that against Pittsburgh in Week 3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Indianapolis)

Update 9/24: Well that didn’t go so well, huh? Knowshon Moreno has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game, despite not appearing on the injury report all week.

Can we all agree that as an NFL running back, Knowshon Moreno will probably not be the explosive, dynamic runner he was in college at Georgia? Okay, good.

Now, can we all also agree that he is Denver’s main man in the backfield and – assuming he stays healthy – will be a steady-eddie type guy who will get touches and a solid #2 RB/flex play? Okay good.

In Week 2, Moreno had 28 touches and racked up 118 yards, plus a TD. There is nothing explosive about that, but it helps you move the chains, so to speak, in your fantasy matchups. Against Indy? Even better. The run D was better for the Colts Sunday night, but they still gave up 5.2 yards per carry to Ahmad Bradshaw.

Start Moreno with confidence this week.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 3 projection: 95 yards rushing, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• You know what? I’m not sure I care right now if Beanie Wells plays in Week 3 or not. Tim Hightower has had two productive weeks and the Cardinals will have to ride their running game with Derek Anderson at QB. Oakland is a good matchup too.
• Matt Forte has been more productive as a receiver than a runner for two weeks. Who cares? It all counts the same. Green Bay will pressure Jay Cutler like Dallas did, but Chicago showed they can deal with it. Start Forte.
• You might wonder whether you should start Jahvid Best at RB against a solid Minnesota run D that bottled up Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Yeah, well I was hesitant to start him against Chicago and Philly too. 5 TDs later, start this guy. He’s electric.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em RB: All Dallas RBs (@ Houston)

Felix Jones was my sit ‘em RB in Week 2. That worked out well. This week, allow me to expand my sit recommendation for the single most overrated position on one team in the NFL.

Everyone talks about the supposed three-headed running back monster in Dallas. Too bad none of them are worthy of starting. And against Houston? Well neither Joseph Addai or Clinton Portis did much against Houston (and don’t talk to me about Portis’ two short-yardage TDs; you can’t predict that and he had 33 yards on 13 carries).

This is going to be a shootout with Matt Schaub and Tony Romo trading touchdown passes. Maybe one of the Dallas RBs goes off, but I’d much prefer to have Marion Barber and Felix Jones sitting on my bench until someone emerges as the guy who will get 15-20 touches per week and do something with them.

Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice fantasy football week 3 projection: 50 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Carnell Williams. Every week, just check to see who Pittsburgh is facing. Then sit that running back. Now move along.
• CJ Spiller got one carry and four receptions against Green Bay. He’s clearly losing the rookie RB race to Jahvid Best…by a mile. Sit Spiller until he proves he’s worth starting.
• I’m sick and damn tired of the Jerome Harrison saga in Cleveland. One week he makes me look good, one week he makes me look like an idiot. The Browns finally gave him some carries (16) against KC and Harrison runs for 33 yards. Sure, the Chiefs were keying on him to prevent what happened last year, but I’m not rolling the dice against Baltimore.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em WR: Dez Bryant, Dallas (at Houston)

Can you tell I like the Dallas passing game this week?

I’m obviously not going to tell you to start Miles Austin, because that’s too easy. But if Tony Romo throws for 400+ yards (as both QBs have done against Houston this season) then someone else is going to have a big day. And I’m definitely not telling you to start Roy Williams.

Bryant only had 2 catches in Week 2, but he was targeted often in Week 1 when he had 8 catches for 56 yards. In Week 2, Bryant’s value this past Sunday came from his punt return TD. The Cowboys only let him return kicks when he’ll have a chance for a run back, and based on what we saw in Week 2 he’s got the goods to do it any time.

I like this to be Bryant’s breakout game as receiver. Plus, the Cowboys are desperate and Bryant is perhaps their most talented offensive player. They need to start getting him involved, especially in the red zone, to change their fortunes. I think he could have a really big week.

Dez Bryant fantasy football week 3 projection: 8 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs in Week 3:

• Dallas might be without cornerback Mike Jenkins, and their safeties are terrible. You know Andre Johnson is a must-start, but give Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter a look too.
• Mark Clayton only had two catches in Week 2, but he made them count; both were touchdowns. Playing a Washington D that gave up a ton through the air in Week 2 (granted, it was to Houston’s aerial attack and not a rookie QB) I think Clayton needs to be in your lineup.
• I am a Brandon Marshall owner. If you are, you may be concerned about the same things I am for this week: he hasn’t gotten into the end zone; Chad Henne does not look good despite the ‘Fins 2-0 record; and, the Jets are on the schedule in Week 3. I don’t care. Start Marshall. Darrelle Revis is a bit banged up, the Patriots proved you can get scores through the air against the Jets, and Marshall is a primetime player. He’ll shine on Sunday night…assuming Henne can get it to him.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em WR: Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh (@ Tampa Bay)

Wallace actually had more receptions in Week 2 (2) than Hines Ward did (1). Still, I’m a card carrying member of the I Love Hines Ward As a Consistent Fantasy Starter Club, so I’m not going to tell you to sit him unless you have some really good alternatives.

However, with the QB flux in Pittsburgh, neither Ward nor Wallace is an especially strong start this week. And seeing as how Wallace’s value comes from big plays, he is the one more likely to feel the effect of whatever non-Big Ben QB trots out there for Pittsburgh next week.

Plus, neither Cleveland nor Carolina (granted, two terrible passing games) had much success through the air against the Bucs. So there’s that too.

Mike Wallace fantasy football Week 3 projection: 2 receptions 29 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Lee Evans didn’t have a catch this week when I recommended him as a start to a few people. Thanks Lee. Sit this guy as long as Trent Edwards is the QB.
• Legedu Naanee followed up his sterling Week 1 performance with a 1 rec, 14 yard stinker in Week3. I’m not a big fan of him at all as a weekly starter.
• You know how Devin Aromashodu was supposed to break out this week? Umm…he didn’t even register a single catch. While the Bears’ passing attack will probably be a merry-go-round all year, I wouldn’t feel confident starting him right now.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em TE: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (at Miami)

Do you get it yet? Mark Sanchez loves his tight end.

Keller had 7 receptions for 115 yards and a TD against New England in Week 2. The Jets’ Week 3 opponent Miami gave up 6 receptions and 86 yards to Visanthe Shiancoe in Week 2. Do the math. Start Keller.

And consider Keller a weekly start until Mark Sanchez stops looking to him on almost every dropback.

Dustin Keller fantasy football week 3 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• See that stat above regarding Shiancoe? Well the Vikes are playing Detroit this week. I foresee a TD.
• Jermichael Finley was over 100 yards in Week 2 despite not scoring. He’ll score this year. Plenty. Don’t worry and start him.
• Mercedes Lewis had a second straight good game. The Jaguars are at home (which means David Garrard will play well). Philly gave up 7 catches and 108 yards to Brandon Pettigrew in Week 2. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but everything points to a solid day for Lewis.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (vs Pittsburgh)

The Solider had four catches for 83 yards in Week 2, but he faces the fearsome Pittsburgh D in Week 3. I don’t see a whole lot of scoring chances materializing for the Bucs and young QB Josh Freeman. Thus, I think Winslow’s value is limited.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football week 3 projection: 3 catches, 31 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• I’d be careful with Jason Witten. He doesn’t score many TDs anyway and banged his head pretty good in Week 2. Make sure you have a good alternative if you’re going to sit him, but I wouldn’t mind doing so this week.
• Brandon Pettigrew had a nice day in Week 2, but may not find so many opportunities against a Minnesota defense that doesn’t give up much to opposing TEs.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em D/ST: New England Patriots (vs Buffalo)

The Bills are going to be a fantasy-friendly opposing offense all season long. With the Patriots smarting from their loss to the Jets, and the way they played in the first half against Cincy still in my mind, I like the Patriots in Week 3.

New England Patriots fantasy football Week 3 projection: 13 points or less, 2 TOs, 3 sacks

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 3:

• Miami’s defense is pretty damn good. It’s always nerve-wracking recommending the Dolphins in any way against yearly foil the Jets, but I think the D could be solid Sunday night.
• Washington gets to face a St. Louis offense that will improve in years to come…but that isn’t very good right now. Start the ‘Skins against the rookie QB.
• Cincinnati at Carolina looks like a pretty sweet matchup for the Bengals’ D.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles (at Jacksonville)

Don’t get overconfident about this matchup after the Jaguars Week 2 stinker. It was on the road, where the Jags typically play poorly. They’ll be out to avenge such a bad performance, and the Eagles have given up a ton of yards and points to the Packers and Lions during the first two weeks of the season.

I wouldn’t drop the Eagles yet, but they have not been nearly as good as we expected so far in 2010.

Philadelphia Eagles fantasy football Week 2 projection: 21+ points given up, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units in Week 3:

• Chicago faces the Green Bay juggernaut. I’d prefer to not be starting the Bears.
• I obviously don’t want the Texans D starting, and I don’t want Dallas’ D starting either next week. That game should be a shootout.

As always, your questions are welcomed in the comment section and I will answer as many as I can as quickly as I can. Live chats Friday and Sunday morning, plus all of our other usual posts as scheduled this week.

Best of luck in Week 3 everyone!

Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down: Justin Forsett, Tony Romo, and more

Stock up/stock down…it’s a fantasy sports article idea almost as old as the Prodigy internet service (which, by the way, served as my introduction to fantasy baseball a looooong time ago). What it may lack in originality though, it more than makes up for usefulness and accessibility.

That’s why I’m going to make it a staple of our weekly fantasy football coverage here at MSF Fantasy Sports.

This morning, in the first edition of Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down, I’ll run through a list of players whose stock is either rising or falling in my eyes due to a change in workload, injury concerns, matchups, or just a shift in my general trust level with them.

Remember: your fantasy football team is a lot like a relationship. (Huh?) If you don’t trust your significant other, it will lead to instability and turmoil in your relationship. If you don’t trust your starters and your bench players, instability and turmoil will similarly plague your fantasy football team.

And yes, I just went there for a comparison.

Who cares. Let’s talk names.

Stock WAY Up; Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle

In Saturday’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I told you that the Seattle backfield was one to keep an eye on. If you paid heed to my advice, you now know that Forsett has since been named the starter.

Why is this important? There were four games last year in which Forsett got 10 or more carries. Look at his output in those four games:

• 17 carries, 123 yards, TD
• 22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD
• 14 carries, 70 yards
• 10 carries, 74 yards

Let’s call him the NFC version of Jerome Harrison.

Some guys just produce every time they get an opportunity. Forsett, like Harrison, has proven to be one of those guys. In PPR leagues, he is a bona fide #2 back right now (he had 41 catches for 350 yards last year). In standard leagues he is a great flex option and a definite #3 RB who has the potential to become a #2, a la Harrison last year.

If Forsett is somehow available in your league, stop reading this post RIGHT NOW and go pick him up. He has a tough matchup in Week 1 against San Francisco, but he’ll still do enough to bring value. Get him in your lineup.

Stock Down: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

I live in Dallas, so you have to take this one with the caveat that my judgment could be clouded by listening to all of the nattering nabobs of negativity who break down the Cowboys on the radio. Still, I think there are concerns that Romo can live up to the preseason hype that has him lumped in with other 2nd tier QBs like Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady.

Among my reasons for concern:

• I don’t fully trust that Miles Austin is a #1 receiver
• I certainly don’t trust Romo’s 2nd and 3rd options yet, which are rookie Dez Bryant and veteran suckfest Roy Williams.
• I don’t trust that the Cowboys running game will be a consistent force until Tashard Choice is featured more, and who knows when that will be.
• The Cowboys have serious offensive line issues.

Now look, I’m not saying drop Romo. I’m not even saying don’t start him if your backup is, say, Matthew Stafford. This is a guy who has three straight years of a QB rating of 91.4 or better, and whose TD production is 36-26-26 over that span. Romo will have a good season.

But…I kept him in one league thinking there was a chance Romo could have a great season, and that he might even be able to challenge for upper tier status this year. He still could, but I also think that enough warning signs accumulated during training camp that suggest Romo could struggle, especially early.

Stock Up: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore

Want a name of a QB who was drafted below Romo in most drafts but could exceed him in value? Try Joe Flacco, who had the productive TJ Houshmandzadeh added to a stable of receivers that already included Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason.

What this trio lacks in youth they more than make up for in veteran savvy, hands, and reliability. They aren’t going to beat you deep, but they will provide option after option for Flacco in the red zone. That’s a very good thing.

Stock Down: Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona

Having watched Derek Anderson play for three years in Cleveland, I know what he is and what he is not. Anderson has a rocket arm and is a guy who will take chances downfield, especially to his #1 target. This means Larry Fitzgerald owners can exhale a bit. Anderson is not, however, a patient nor accurate quarterback, which means that Steve Breaston and Early Doucet could suffer.

Stock Down: Randy Moss, WR, New England; Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami; Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo

This one is simple: Darrelle Revis is back. We know what he did to #1 receivers last year and it wasn’t pretty.

These three guys have to face Revis twice in 2010. While they all should be solid plays in their other 14 matchups (except for Evans, whose production will be up and down with his QB) the presence of Revis means you at least have to think about sitting them during their two Jets weeks.

With Moss and Marshall, two of the best receivers in the game, you probably don’t ever sit them, but their stock does take a bit of a hit because we can now expect lesser numbers in two of their games this year.

Stock Up: Patrick Crayton, WR, San Diego

He was lost in the shuffle in Dallas so nothing was better for him than being shipped out of town. The bonus is that he went to a WR-starved team with a very good QB who will be able to take advantage of Crayton’s skills, which are his precise route-running and reliable hands.

As our buddy Kurt from PFI pointed out, Crayton is just a few years removed from a 1,000-yard season when he was the #2 receiver in Dallas. He’ll be the #2 in San Diego and could post similar numbers this year.