The Demise of Marty Turco

The Dallas Stars might be one step closer to fixing their goaltending problem after trading a draft pick and top prospect Vishnevskiy to the Atlanta Thrashers for net minder Karl Lehtonen. What does this mean for current Stars goalie Marty Turco? Well one thing is for sure this doesn’t help his future with the team, which has been in question since last season.

Lets take a look at the contracts and stats of the Dallas Stars Goalies so that we can get a clear picture of what the teams goaltending future will hold. The stat I am interested in is the Save Percentage, the reason for this is that goals against average is more of a team defense statistic.

Marty Turco Bio – Contract – Statistics
Age: 34
Height: 5-11
Weight: 189
Save Percentage:
06-07: .910
07-08: .909
08-09: .898
09-10: .911 season in progress

Marty Turco’s Future with the Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars Goalie Marty Turco will be a free agent at the end of this season. He will receive 5.7 million dollars this year, and most fans do not think that he is worth it anymore. I defended Turco from the naysayers before, but can’t do it anymore. At his age he is on a slow decline, so prayers that Marty can return to the form he was in while setting the modern day goals against average will probably go unanswered. His stats have been on the decline since the 06-07 season and has also had his fair share of struggles in the post season.

My belief is that with the arrival of Karl Lehtonen, Joe Nieuwendyk and the Dallas Stars front office are actively shopping Turco before the trade deadline. A rumor that he was going to the Flyers has gone cold, but expect him to be traded before the deadline. And if Turco isn’t traded I don’t think he will be resigned unless he is willing to take a major cut in pay and playing time.

Karl Lehtonen – Contract – Statistics
Age: 26
Height: 6-4
Weight: 215
Save Percentage:
06-07: .912
07-08: .916
08-09: .911
09-10: N/A Back Injury

Karl Lehtonen’s Future with the Dallas Star
The Dallas Stars newly acquired goalie Karl Lehtonen is definitely positioned to be the Stars goalie moving forward. Out of the 3 goalies the Stars now have on the roster, Lehtonen is the only one that will be a restricted free agent after this season. Both Turco and Auld are unrestricted free agents at the end of this season. Lehtonen is owed 3 million for this season.

Lehtonen has posted better save percentages than Marty Turco since the 06-07 season, and has done it while playing for the Atlanta Thrashers who aren’t that good. The only knock on Karl Lehtonen is that he is injury prone. If he can play at the same level he did before his back surgery and stay healthy the Stars will vastly improve their current goaltending situation.

Alex Auld – Contract – Statistics
Age: 29
Height: 6-5
Weight: 221
Save Percentage:
06-07: .888 Florida Panthers
07-08: .919 Boston Bruins – .880 Phoenix Coyotes
08-09: .911 Ottawa Senators
09-10: .894

Alex Auld’s Future with the Dallas Stars
Journeyman goalie Alex Auld was signed for this season as an insurance policy in case Marty Turco couldn’t hack it this season. Auld posted good numbers with the Bruins and Senators, but those are two pretty salty squads.

Lehtonen has been given chances to take over the starting position this year, but has not done much to impress with his chances. I think that the Stars will probably let him walk after this season. He signed a one year contract for 1 million and will be an unrestricted free agent at the seasons end.

Conclusion
I would definitely recommend against buying a Turco jersey right now, it looks like he may not even end this season as a Dallas Star. I don’t know why you would, but I would also recommend against buying an Auld jersey as he has not done much to secure a spot for next season.

My hope is that the Stars will part ways with both Turco and Auld and make Lehtonen the starting goalie and bring up a goalie prospect as the Stars backup next season. However with Lehtonen’s injury history Auld or another journeyman / veteren goalie will probably be the backup next season.

Resources:
Defending Big D – Dallas Stars Hockey Blog
Yahoo! Sports – Player Statistics
Hockey Buzz – NHL Salaries

Turco must win, Turco must win!

by Richard S  Pollak, the Hockey Guy

Two years ago, Dallas Stars number #1 Goalie Marty Turco was named one of the 100 most influential men in ice hockey by the Hockey News. The revered grand daddy of all hockey publications, it was  the first hockey magazine that I ever got paid to write for. Today, Turco didn’t even make it as one of the top 5 goalies in the Pacific Division. In order for the Stars to go anywhere into the playoffs, this season ,  Turco must win. At 34, he is in the last year of his $5.7 million dollar per year, no trade contract ,that makes him the second highest paid player on the roster, eight highest paid goalie in the league  and a Free Agent at the end of the season.
Backup goaltender Alex Auld gave the Dallas Stars their best performance  of the season in their first victory as he stopped 21 of 23 saves against the previously unbeaten Calgary Flames in the Pacific Northwest. Auld looks to be the backup goaltender than the Stars did not have in their organization last year. Turco is now projected to play in 10-15 less  games this season because of Auld than last season.

If the Stars don’t get off to a fast start on the season under new coach Marc Crawford and his new system which asks the defensemen to be more aggressive charging up the ice and expects the forwards to come back more defensively on the transition, Turco is in for his most challenging season ever. It will take a while according the team standard line for the players to learn this new system. Turco is  meanwhile  playing for a new multi year, big bucks contract which should be enough incentive to succeed. So far he hasn’t shown  the fans that stopper mentality on the his  most crucial game challenge for Turco the shootout. It used to be a given that he would stop every opponent in an overtime shootout but has lost that edge in losing his first 2 shootouts this season .

The Stars look ahead to their first test of the season against an Eastern Conference powerhouse in the Boston Bruins. The Bruins boast  All-Stars:  Netminder Tim  Thomas,  6 ft – 8 inch Defenseman  Zdeno Charo plus  premiere Forwards Marc Savard, Patrice Begeron and Milan Lucic. The Bruins will be hosting my hometown Philly Flyers in the annual outdoor ice classic at Fenway Park on New Year’s Day.

Is Marty Turco to Blame for Star’s Slump?

Message boards all across the web are calling for Star’s goalie Marty Turco’s head in retribution for the Star’s Western Conference cellar performance.  When watching a Star’s debacle, it is easy to blame the net minder for one or two goals that might seem like routine saves to the hockey fan’s eye.  But if that is the case, shouldn’t the Stars be racking up more points seeing as they’ve been losing games scoring more than three goals?

Here is a statistical argument stating the defense is to blame for the Star’s woes

“The Great One” Wayne Gretzky said 100 percent of the shots you don’t take don’t go in.  The meaning behind this for offensive players is put the puck on net and good things will happen.  Gretzky seems to be an authority on lighting the lamp, so take this moral to be true.

So looking at this statement as a goalie, the more shots that make it to your kitchen, the better chance one has of getting past you.

So far this season Turco has faced 784 shots in 29 games played.  This averages down to a few hundredths over 27 shots per game.

If this trend stays constant throughout the rest of the season, and just making the assumption Turco will sit three more games the rest of the season, as he has up to this point, Turco would face 2,052 shots in 76 games.

In his career, Turco has never seen more than 1,648 shots in one season.  He faced that many in the 2003-04 season playing in 73 games.  So this season stays consistent Turco will face a little over 400 more shots than he has ever faced in a single season.  400 more shots directly equals more chances for bounces to go against the Stars.

One problem with these numbers however lies in Turco’s games played.  The most games Turco has ever played in a single season is the 73 he competed in 03-04.  The 2,052 shots compared to this is based on 76 games, which would set a new career record for Turks.

So far Turco has been scratched from the starting lineup only three times, whichis new ground for Turco.  At this rate he would play more games than he ever has in a single season.  But the next highest shot total in a season came in 05-06 with 1,624 in 68 games.

Turco averages in the 60 game range throughout his career.  So if Turco gets a few more off nights throughout the rest of the season and plays 68 games as he did in 05-06 he would finish with 1,836 shots fired on him.  This is still around two hundred more shots than he has ever faced.

Using good diductive reasoning, what is the cause of an increase of shots on goal?  The answer is bad defense.

Weather it be odd man rushes or not filling shooting lanes, the Stars D-men are letting their goalie down.  But truly why stop with the d-men when defense is played with five players.  This problem could also be from forwards not backchecking and relieving some pressure put on the defense.  However a more careful viewing of game tape would prove the lack of experience among the Stars blue line is allowing for more shots, allowing for more goals.

A slump is usually never one person’s fault, whether that be Sean Avery or Marty Turco.  Everyone has a part in a loss and everyone has a part in pulling the season back together.  While Turco can practice more to be sharper and take away that one to two goals that really are his fault, he can’t practice for himself and someone else.  The defence needs to step up, learn how to talk to each other, communicate effectively, and take away shot chances, especially in high scoring areas.  To be completely cliche, Defence wins championships…or makes playoffs.

Loui Eriksson and Dallas Stars Win Over Phoenix Coyotes

The Dallas Stars were able to hold on for an overtime win on Tuesday against the Phoenix Coyotes. Loui Eriksson, who has gone six games without a goal, scored both goals for the Stars.

Dallas jumped out to a quick first period lead with a goal coming in the third minute from Loui Eriksson. The game remained scoreless until Phoenix Coyotes wing Todd Fedoruk netted the equalizer at 10:51 in the third period, off a Peter Mueller rebound. With no one scoring the go ahead the game went to overtime.

3:39 into overtime, Loui Eriksson took a pass from Mike Ribeiro and put the rebound of his first shot past Phoenix Coyotes goalie Ilja Bryzgalov, who had 28 saves on the night.

Marty Turco, who made a season high 37 saves on Friday against Detroit, had 22 saves against Phoenix.

Tuesday’s game was the first the Dallas Stars played after announcing on Monday that controversial forward Sean Avery would no longer be a part of the team. Sean Avery had been banned for six games after off-color remarks regarding an ex-girlfriend, Elisha Cuthbert. Tuesday’s against Phoenix would have been his first game back with the Dallas Stars.

In addition to the loss of Sean Avery, the Dallas Stars have been ravaged by injuries this season and were without Jere Lehtinen, Steve Ott, Stephan Robidas, Joel Lundgvist, Sergei Zhubov, and captain Brendan Morrow.

The Stars face the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday.