Fantasy Football Week 13 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well friends, I am disappointed to say that I dropped another game in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. The loss drops me to 6-6 on the season and two games out of the final playoff spot. I now need to win out and I need help. That is never a good position to be in.

So what went wrong in Week 12? It would be easy to look at the tight end position, where I chose Vernon Davis over Kevin Boss. Davis proceeded to score three points, and I lost by four. Since Kevin Boss had 70+ yards and a TD, the winning production was sitting on the bench at that one spot.

But, just like the Buffalo Bills’ loss in Week 12 cannot be totally blamed on Stevie Johnson dropping that wide open TD pass, there were other positions that could have picked up the slack. Adrian Peterson was running wild before getting hurt and having to leave the game. Vincent Jackson, who I foolishly started in his first game back*, got hurt after two plays. Neither Mike Wallace nor Mike Thomas came anywhere close to the production they’d been getting recently.

* – One of my most trusted fantasy football principles has always been that I don’t start guys who are playing in their first game back after a long layoff. I prefer to wait for them to prove on the field that they are back, even it takes two or three weeks. I like seeing before I believe. Yet, here we are in Week 12, crunch time for all of us, and I recommend Sidney Rice as my WR start ‘em and then go with Vincent Jackson in the most critical week of my season in the Blogger Fantasy League. I failed myself and I failed you. I’m sorry. This is a great example of why having principles and sticking to them is so important. In Week 12, I was a doofus, and I cost us all.

Add it all up, and most of what could go wrong did go wrong, save for Eli, BenJarvus, and Dan Carpenter coming through huge. The real surprise is that I only lost by three points with this confluence of crap that occurred.

And with that, Week 12 is over. Thanks for letting me vent. It is time to turn our attention towards Week 13, and as I did last week, I will enlist your help later this week in setting my Week 13 roster.

Update: Since I am not yet mathematically eliminated from the BFL2010 playoffs, I am seeking your help again in setting my Week 13 roster. P&G gift bags for those who offer up the best responses!

Before we delve into the Week 13 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Adrian Peterson; Eli Manning
• Start em misses: Cleveland Browns D; Sidney Rice; Ben Watson
• Sit em hits: Terrell Owens; Dustin Keller; New England D
• Sit em misses: Fred Jackson; Michael Vick

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 13.

***Remember that Houston and Philadelphia play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (at Detroit)

You know I am predisposed to putting Jay Cutler in the sit ‘em category because I generally do not like him either as a QB or a person (based on what I know of his cocky ass anyway). So when you see that I am putting my faith in Cutler as my start ‘em QB, you know it’s pretty much a slam dunk.

Let’s discuss a few reasons why Cutler warrants this spot in Week 13.

First off, he’s been playing pretty well lately. Week 12 marked the third time in four games that Cutler has tossed multiple TDs. He is also doing an admirable job (based on his own low standards) of protecting the football. This shows that Cutler is getting more comfortable in Mike Martz’s system as the season goes along, and that his O-Line is making some (but just some) progress.

The second, and most important, reason why I like Cutler is his matchup. The Bears play the Lions in Week 12, the same Lions who gave up four TD passes to Tom Brady in Week 12. In addition to the Lions having a very generous secondary, Cutler has proven in the past that he can exploit it. Here are Cutler’s last three games against the Lions:

• Week 1, 2010: 372 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Week 4, 2009: 141 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INT
• Week 17, 2009: 276 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INT

That’s 8 TDs and just one pick in three games. With the Bears offense playing better and the Lions defense reeling right now, everything adds up to Cutler being a great Week 13 start.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 13 projection: 310 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 13:

• Michael Vick faces Houston in Week 13 on Thursday night. Should be ’nuff said.
• Mark Sanchez is at New England and its questionable secondary. Sanchez has thrown 6 TDs over the last three games and New England will give ‘em up.
• Many people thought Eli Manning should be on their bench in Week 12 because of the rash of injuries in the Giants’ WR corps. All Manning did was throw for 200+ yards and 2 TDs. The guy has 23 TDs passes now! Respect earned. He has another solid matchup in Week 13 against Washington.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em QB: Tom Brady, New England (at New York Jets)

Tom Brady has been playing great lately. He has 11 TDs and 0 INTs in his last four games. That is terrific. And he hasn’t just done it against poor defenses. Sure, he feasted on the Browns and Lions, but he also threw multiple TD passes against the Steelers and Colts, both of whom are relatively stingy against the pass.

However, in Week 13 Brady and the Patriots host the New York Jets, and while Brady had a nice day against New York early this season (248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), that was before the Jets had Darrelle Revis back and healthy.

Here is what Brady did against the Jets last year:

• Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
• Week 11: 310 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

So in Brady’s last three games against the Jets, he’s thrown 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Additionally, the Jets’ pass D is just now rounding into form. After being surprisingly generous early in the season, the Jets have given up just three TD passes over the last three weeks and surely will be primed and ready to attack Brady on Monday Night Football.

Brady’s superior skill and wide range of options make him a decent play even against the Jets, but I think there are at least 8-10 options who are better, and you should see if one of those resides on your bench or the waiver wire if Week 13 is a must-win matchup for you.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 13 projection: 225 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 13:

• Jon Kitna threw no TD passes last week against New Orleans after two straight weeks of throwing three. I’m still not a believer, especially against Indy.
• Carson Palmer against New Orleans is a pretty obvious sit.
• Donovan McNabb faces a pretty stingy New York GIants defense, especially when it comes to the pass. He’ll likely be running for his life all day.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (at Minnesota)

Based on my Never Start Running Backs Facing Pittsburgh rule, I told you to sit Fred Jackson in Week 13. Proving that I walk the walk that I talk, I sat him myself in the leagues in which I own. Naturally, FJax then proceeded to rack up 163 total yards and a TD.

Fred, I get it now. You’re a must start. Every week. You didn’t need to rub it in!

I assume that you, my astute reader, understands that Fred Jackson is knocking on the door of top 10 running back status. Still, I list him here because I fear that people could see his matchup, at Minnesota, and be wary. The Vikings, after all, give up less than 100 yards rushing per game and have allowed just six rushing TDs this year. To that, I say this: Pittsburgh was giving up 63 yards rushing per game and had given up just four rushing TDs coming into Week 12…and we know what FJax did against that imposing unit.

Here is why I really love Fred Jackson, and why he is a must-must start in PPR leagues: he gets involved consistently in passing game. He had five catches (for 100+ yards) in Week 12, and this comes on the heels of him catching three, six, and five passes, respectively, over the previous three weeks.

Jackson has three straight games with at least 125+ yards and a TD. If you’re not comfortable starting him at this point, you are either too stubborn or have some really good RB options. Week 12 proved that, tough matchup or not, Fred Jackson is an every week play.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 13 projection: 95 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 13:

• Jamaal Charles continues to rack up yards (and finally got into the end zone!). I’ll continue to tell you to start him.
• Chris Johnson struggled in Week 12. I don’t care. Unless something comes out about an injury we weren’t aware of, you start him in Week 13 against Jacksonville. He could very well be the #1 overall player this week.
• Matt Forte had a great game against the Lions in Week 1. He should have another good one against them this week.
• Ray Rice faces Pittsburgh in Week 13, which is usually an automatic sit situation. The Steelers are not as quite as imposing nowadays due to injuries along their defensive front. Rice isn’t a slam dunk play, but I’d make sure you have some pretty good alternatives before you sit him.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to produce. Even against the Jets I say start him. In fact, with the Jets’ secondary likely to frustrate Tom Brady, I think Green-Ellis will be a big part of the gameplan.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (at New England)

Folks, I predicted it a while back and it is coming to fruition: LaDainian Tomlinson is not built for a 16-game season at this stage in his career. While LT still has some value in PPR leagues (he has 21 catches over the last four weeks), he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 6 and hasn’t averaged more than 3.7 yards per rush in a game since Week 5.

As the season moves into December, I expect Shonn Greene to continue to get the majority of the carries for the Jets. LT is in his 30s now and running backs in their 30s simply have a harder time maintaining their explosiveness through a 16-game schedule and as the weather gets colder. He’s already done more than most people expected, so there is no shame in LT’s production dipping. Just make sure you don’t stubbornly keep him in your lineup in Week 13 because of what he did in Weeks 1-6.

LaDainian Tomlinson fantasy football Week 13 projection: 45 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 13:

• The Dolphins got Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams much more involved in Week 12 against Oakland, with Williams even scoring a TD. Let’s hope this is a trend that will continue for the Dolphins, but I’m not quite ready to trust either guy just yet.
• Keiland Williams, what the hell was that? Apparently being named the starter in Washington means you get seven total touches. Damn you Mike Shanahan. Actually, damn me. Damn all of us. It was our fault for trusting you.
• Brandon Jackson just really isn’t a viable fantasy player unless you’re decimated by injuries and simply someone who will get touches. He simply isn’t very productive.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em WR: Mario Manningham, New York Giants (v Washington)

I was somewhat hesitant to recommend the seemingly obvious Mario Manningham in Week 12 despite his role as the #1 WR for Eli Manning with Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith out. I’ve simply been burned too many times by Manningham in the past to totally trust him. Plus, with Jacksonville surely keying on him, I wondered if Manningham was up to the challenge of being the #1 guy.

The end result of Week 12 was not spectacular, but it was good enough for a WR that most people probably had as a #2/#3 guy: 3 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD. That’ll get the job done, and it’s what we should be able to expect from Manningham as Eli’s top target when going up against a porous Jags defense.

In Week 13, Eli, Mario, and the Giants face an equally inept pass defense when the Washington Redskins come to town. Sure, the ‘Skins held the Vikings passing game in check in Week 12, but who hasn’t been doing that lately? Eli has been appreciably better than Brett Favre this year and is a virtual lock for two TDs each week. Assuming that trend continues, it’s a safe bet that Mario will get one of them. Based on his Week 12 production, start Manningham with confidence.

Additional note: even if Hakeem Nicks or Steve Smith come back in Week 13 (which would surprise me) still start Mario. You might not have noticed, but Manningham had 17 catches for 171 yards and a TD over the three weeks preceding Week 12. That’s not great, but it’s proof that he’s finding a groove even when he’s the #2 or #3 option.

Mario Manningham fantasy football Week 13 projection: 4 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 13:

• Steve Johnson was a drop machine who cost his team the game by dropping a wide open TD chance in overtime. Still, he caught 7 passes for 68 yards. He stays in your lineup.
• Jay Cutler has a really nice rapport with Earl Bennett, which resulted in two TDs in Week 12. Bennett has been inconsistent, but the matchup against Detroit could be a fruitful one. For that matter, I also like Johnny Knox and Devin Hester in Week 13.
• I know I told you to sit Tom Brady above, but that does not mean I’d sit Wes Welker. He’s been red hot lately and has played well against the Jets the last two times he’s faced them.
• I like Santonio Holmes a lot against New England’s secondary. Even Braylon Edwards isn’t a terrible play against them.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em WR: Randy Moss, Tennessee (v Jacksonville)

That’s it. I’m done. I’ve had it. Even after proclaiming myself done with Randy Moss after his Week 11 no-show, I still ended up softening my stance by Sunday and recommending him to some of you in Week 12. The recommendation was based on solely on Moss’ matchup against the historically bad Houston Texans secondary. Moss ended up catching three passes for 23 yards. Yay.

Now, I’ll give Moss something of a pass because clearly Rusty Smith was not ready to play in an NFL game. Smith’s presence killed the fantasy value of every Titan, including Chris Johnson. Luckily for the Titans, Kerry Collins is expected to be back in the lineup for Week 13, though there are no guarantees yet. If so, that clearly helps out Moss and the other Titans receivers.

Still, Collins or not, here is Moss’ recent production:

• Week 11: 0 catches
• Week 10: 1 catch, 26 yards
• Week 8: 1 catch, 8 yards
• Week 7: 3 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD

So you have to go all the way back to Week 7 to find a game in which Moss had even a semblance of fantasy value. Since then? Bupkus.

I know that the matchup against Jacksonville is inviting, but I’m done trusting Moss. Even if Collins plays, I’m placing the onus on Moss to produce something significant before I’m trusting him with seasons and playoff spots hanging in the balance.

Randy Moss fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 13:

• Despite his recent three week stretch of excellent production, I’m not high on Deion Branch this week. With Brandon Tate‘s issues catching the football, I expect Darrelle Revis to cover Branch. That automatically hurts his value.
• We all got really excited about Dez Bryant there for a few weeks. Then he reminded us that he is just a rookie and that rookies, especially rookie WRs, tend to be maddeningly inconsistent. Start him at your own risk from here on out, though the potential for a big week is always there.
• Well, I’ve touted Sidney Rice‘s return for two straight weeks and he’s responded by catching four passes. Woo. Hoo. Rice may yet prove to have fantasy value this season, but the onus is not on him to prove it before we trust him.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em TE: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta (at Tampa Bay)

I’m surprised by how many questions I get about Tony Gonzalez on a weekly basis. I still consider him a bona fide top 10 tight end and weekly start, but many of you seem to not agree. Much of this, I think, comes from Gonzo’s slow start to the season (4 catches, 54 yards, 0 TDs through first two weeks of season) and the fact that coming into Week 12 he only had two games in which he’d caught a TD.

In Week 12, Gonzalez reminded us why he is such a solid option, catching 6 passes for 51 yards and a TD against a very good Green Bay Packers defense. In Week 13, Gonzalez and the Falcons get to face a Tampa Bay Bucs team that gave up a long TD pass to the not-so-fleet-of-foot Todd Heap. I think Gonzalez should be able to take advantage similarly.

Tony Gonzalez fantasy football Week 13 projection: 4 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 13:

• Greg Olsen caught a TD pass in Week 12. He had a decent outing against Detroit in Week 1 and I like him to have a decent game in Week 13 as well.
• Eli Manning clearly trusts Kevin Boss, going back to him time and again in a close second half after Boss made a bad drop. Boss rewarded him with the game-winning TD. Assuming Nicks and Smith are out again, Boss is a solid option again.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (v Atlanta)

K2 has been a solid though unspectacular producer this year. He finally broke through with a TD in Week 10 and there was hope that more would be on the way. Perhaps there will be (the garbage time TD in Week 12 was a start), but Atlanta is not a great matchup. The Falcons are among the stingiest defenses in the NFL when it comes to points allowed to opposing tight ends. That, combined with Winslow’s overall lack of explosiveness this season, makes him a prime candidate to sit.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 13:

• I’m sitting Aaron Hernandez (1 catch in two straight games) until he proves he should be a starter again.
• The Saints are pretty good against opposing tight ends so Jermaine Gresham is another rookie TE I wouldn’t want starting this week.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em D/ST: New York Giants (v Washington)

The Giants have been an up and down defense this year, even within games. Week 12 is a great example. Jacksonville ran all over the Giants in the first half, but New York got it together in half #2 and held the Jags in check. With the pass rush that New York can create, they will always be a threat to get sacks and force turnovers, which is what gives a fantasy defense the potential for big days. With Washington’s offense not showing any signs of continuity or explosiveness, the Giants seem like a very safe pick with upside.

New York Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: 17 or fewer points, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em defense / special teams units for Week 13:

• Seattle got roasted by the Chiefs in Week 12. Still, they should be able to fare much better against Carolina in Week 13.
• The Miami Dolphins did an excellent job in Week 12 against Oakland. Facing Cleveland in Week 13, and presumably Jake Delhomme, the potential is there for a big fantasy day.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em D/ST: Arizona Cardinals (v St. Louis Rams)

The Cardinals have been a popular fantasy defense at different points this season, mainly because they have a special teams unit that can put up points and offset the big plays allowed by the offense. Coming off a short week, I’m not a big fan of a struggling Cardinals defense that will take on the red hot Rams. Sam Bradford and Co ran and passed all over the Denver in Week 12, proving that they don’t have to be at home to click offensively. I think Arizona’s time as a fantasy-relevant defense has come to an end. If you watched any of the Monday Night game (27 points to the 49ers…really?) you surely agree.

Arizona Cardinals fantasy football Week 13 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em defense / special teams units for Week 13:

• Oakland has to face Philip Rivers in Week 13. Considering what Chad Henne and the previously woeful Dolphins D did to them in Week 12, I’d say that doesn’t bode well.
• New England‘s D is not one I’d want to mess with this week. The Jets offense has been able to throw the ball well, and that’s New England’s major issue on defense.

The comment section awaits your questions. Fire away!

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Remember in the movie Men In Black how they had that little device that could wipe someone’s memory clean? After last week, I wouldn’t mind someone doing that to me.

Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.

While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.

But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.

I am writing this while watching Monday Night Football. I need a 20 point night from Mike Wallace to pull out a win in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and with the Steelers up 17-7 and Wallace not having a TD yet, that seems unlikely. If I lose, I’ll be 5-4 and in pretty serious need of a winning streak to ensure I at least make the playoffs.

Remember, the stakes are the Super Bowl, so you know I’m overturning every stone in an effort to win – like my last minute of pick up of Seyi Atirotutu on Sunday (see, it wasn’t all bad!). The upshot is that I regurgitate all of this research into these columns, hopefully helping you out in the process.

Before we delve into the Week 10 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 9 (ugh) with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack. Last week’s winner was commenter nik. Who will win this week?
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 9 recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Eli Manning,
• Start ‘em misses: Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Todd Heap, New England D
• Sit ‘em hits: Seattle Seahawks D
• Sit ‘em misses: Matthew Stafford, Steve Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Cedric Benson

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: the following teams are on bye in Week 10:

• San Diego Chargers
• Oakland Raiders
• New Orleans Saints
• Green Bay Packers
  

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (v Houston)

If you read this week’s waiver wire sleepers column, you know that David Garrard is my “gold star pickup of the week.” Why? Well look no further than the Houston Texans pass defense. This porous unit has given up 20 TDs in 8 games this year, and is one of the most targetable defensive units I can remember in my history playing fantasy football.

Also, Garrard has not been a slouch this year, despite his shoddy reputation. Sure, he’s been inconsistent, but that’s who he is. David Garrard is inconsistent. It’s a tenet of fantasy football.

But he has thrown for at least two TDs in four of his seven starts this year, and the games he struggled in were against the solid pass defenses of Tennessee, Philly, and San Diego. Against more suspect pass defenses like Dallas and Buffalo, Garrard has taken advantage. And suspect would be a kind way of describing Houston’s pass D.

Worth noting as well: Garrard has historically been much better at home than away. He is absolutely a must start this week. He’ll be in my top 10, the question is will he be top 5?

David Garrard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• Michael Vick against Washington’s generous pass defense is an obvious play.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick actually had a decent showing against a very tough Bears defense. He faces the much more forgiving Detroit secondary in Week 10.
• Whoever starts for the Lions – Matthew Stafford or Shaun Hill (but not Drew Stanton, I don’t trust him) – is a solid start against the Buffalo Bills.
• Eli Manning is a very good start at home against Dallas. He torched them a few weeks ago and the Giants are red hot right now. The Cowboys are the opposite of red hot.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at Chicago)

I know that you Brett Favre owners probably had the old man on your bench in Week 9 (a wise move, despite the result) and had to watch him put up two TDs and 446 passing yards. You are probably itching to get him in your lineup this week, especially if you have Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, or Aaron Rodgers.

Unfortunately for you (or perhaps fortunately), I am here to throw some cold water on you with the following realities:

• The Bears have allowed only five passing touchdowns all season
• Favre continues to start and finish most games, but he gets older and more dinged up each week. Don’t you think the physical Bears will try everything they can to smack their old nemesis around? Favre staying healthy is a major risk each week for the rest of the season.
• The numbers Brett put up last week were against a very weak Cardinals pass D. Sidney Rice is not expected to be back at full strength by next Sunday (though he should play) meaning Favre will have to go against the Bears’ secondary with Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Greg Camarillo again.

I absolutely think Favre needs to be the starter for the Vikings, and I think he has a shot to put up more consistent numbers once Sidney Rice gets back to full strength, but with so many good “second tier” QB options like Garrard and Fitzpatrick out there, why risk playing Favre when he is throwing so many INTs and so banged up? I just don’t like the risk/return here.

Brett Favre fantasy football Week 10 projection: 275 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• I would like to apologize to everyone for having Chad Henne ranked so highly last week. I’m done with him. He sucks.
• Carson Palmer against the Indy pass D? No thanks. At least, not top 10. He did have another solid game against Pittsburgh, I just don’t totally trust him yet.
• Don’t get cute and think you should start Colt McCoy because he’s playing well in real life. The Browns’ offense does not produce passing TDs, and the Jets have lots of talent in their secondary.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at Arizona)

You probably think I’m crazy. Why would I tell you to start a running back who has 57 yards on 20 carries with no touchdowns the last two weeks? Well, to be honest, it’s all about the matchup.

The Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. The Cardinals give up in the neighborhood of 130 rushing yards per game. They have also given up nine rushing TDs this season (and it should be 10 if the Vikings would have given Adrian Peterson one more goalline try in the 4th quarter…but I digress.)

So while Lynch has been a major disappointment the last couple of weeks, and will continue to be up and down, this is one of the “up” weeks. Hopefully Matt Hasselbeck will be back too, which should help the Seattle offense provide more scoring opportunities for its running backs.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 10 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• I’m not a huge fan of the matchup versus the Jets, but Peyton Hillis is officially a must start now. How can he not be?
• I didn’t like Cedric Benson last week against Pittsburgh, but I do like him this week against Indy.
• Fred Jackson is a sneaky-good start against the relatively forgiving Lions’ D this week, and CJ Spiller is even worth a flyer in deeper leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, New York Jets (at Cleveland)

Yes, that’s right. I’m telling you to sit the running backs from a 6-2 team against the Cleveland Browns. Here’s why:

• Surprisingly, the Browns have only given up one rushing TD this season. That is the best in the NFL. Granted, the Browns D isn’t better than the Steelers or Jets (which have given multiple ground TDs this season), but they only give up around 100 yards per game rushing.
• Against the Patriots in Week 9, the Browns stuffed a good goalline running game numerous times. That’s a good sign, and shows that the 1 TD rushing isn’t just a fluke.
• LT has just 101 yards over the last two weeks on 33 carries. He hasn’t scored. That’s about what he was doing last year for the Chargers when everyone said he was washed up. (Hmm…just saying.) He has caught 11 passes over the last two weeks though, so you probably DO want to play LT in PPR leagues.
• Greene has just 25 carries over the last three weeks. Even though his yard per carry average is better than LT’s, he simply isn’t getting the touches.
• The Jets produced through the air in Week 9, which is how you beat this Browns’ D. They consistently give up multiple TDs to opposing QBs; the running backs just don’t get involved in the action.

Now watch LT scored two TDs and Greene score one. Wouldn’t that just be appropriate!

Still, I think the stats and trends point to this being a tough matchup for LT and Greene. Plan accordingly.

LaDainian Tomlinson fantasy football Week 10 projection: 50 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Shonn Green fantasy football Week 10 projection: 50 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• The Minnesota Vikings have been pretty good against the run this year, giving up less than 100 yards per game and only 6 TDs. With Matt Forte’s dismal performance against Buffalo’s awful run D, and Chester Taylor starting to steal opportunities, it’s time to consider alternate options if you have them.
• The Chiefs are also giving up around 100 yards rushing per game. While the Raiders scored two TDs on the ground against them in Week 9, one was by the QB and they did a pretty good job of containing Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. That doesn’t bode well for Knowshon Moreno in Week 10.
• In Week 8 I sat BenJarvus Green-Ellis and he went off. In Week 9 I started him and he sucked. Guess what? It’s an easy choice in Week 10: he faces Pittsburgh. Sit him!

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em WR: Steve Johnson, Buffalo (v Detroit)

Look, I know that I can be stubborn sometimes, especially when it comes to proven veterans and rookies, but I’m not so stubborn that I’ll ignore six straight weeks of fantasy worthiness. And that’s exactly what Steve Johnson has done:

• Week 3: 3 catches, 66 yards, 1 TD
• Week 4: 3 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD
• Week 5: 5 catches, 46 yards, 2 TDs
• Week 6: bye
• Week 7: 8 catches, 158 yards, 1 TD
• Week 8: 5 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD
• Week 9: 11 catches, 145 yards, 0 TD

What is interesting to note is that I had Johnson as my sit ‘em WR for Week 9, based on the probability that he wouldn’t score a TD for a sixth straight week against a very good Bears pass D. Well, he didn’t score a TD, but he did set a career high in catches and had his second 140+ yard receiving game in his last three outings. That’s impressive.

Do I totally trust Johnson? No, I don’t. So I put him here somewhat begrudgingly. But his numbers speak for themselves, and Chan Gailey offenses love to throw the ball. Also, the Lions give up 235+ passing yards per game and have allowed 13 passing TDs this season. You can’t sit Johnson now.

Steve Johnson fantasy football Week 10 projection: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 10:

• Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas v Houston. Duh.
• Kansas City is better against the run than the pass. Brandon Lloyd has 100+ yards in 5 of his 8 starts this year. He plays.
• Dwayne Bowe just keeps scoring TDs. Facing a Denver that has given up 12 TDs in 8 games is a tasty matchup.
• Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards have to be considered decent start options this week. Both bounced back in Week 9, and the way to beat Cleveland is through the air.
• I know that Steve Smith (CAR) was shutout in Week 9, and that his team has huge QB issues. Well, I’d sit him at your own risk. Tampa Bay has given up a lot of passing TDs this year, and Smith is a prideful athlete with a lot of skins on the wall. I’m going against the stats and trends and saying that you want him in your lineup this week, even if John Fox takes snaps at QB.
• Speaking of Tampa Bay, Mike Williams has now become a weekly start. I can’t hold out any longer.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em WR: Brandon Marshall, Miami (v Tennessee)

Understand a few things here:

• I’m a Dolphins fan, so I hope I’m horribly wrong with this pick (and I am, at least in part, strategically placing Marshall in hopes of reverse-jinxing him into a huge day).
• I have Brandon Marshall as my #1 WR in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and I will be starting him because I don’t have a good enough alternative.

That said, I’m really starting to get worried. I have overrated Marshall for many weeks now because I’ve though he would break out. While his 10-catch, 127-yard performance against Green Bay in Week 6 was encouraging, Marshall has just 15 catches for 170 yards since. And the most important number? Zero touchdowns over that span. For the season, Marshall has just one TD.

It’s no coincidence that as I’ve overrated Marshall, I’ve also overrated Chad Henne. Well, after watching Henne not look very good for two straight weeks, and with some other stinker performances sprinkled in this season, I’m done counting on these two to get it going. If they are going to, I’ll wait for the proof on the field and then bump them back up my rankings.

Remember, just because Marshall is listed here doesn’t mean I’d sit him no matter what. He’s still good for a minimum of 5-6 catches per game, and still is one of the more talented wide receivers in the game. I place him here more to make the point (to myself as much as you, dear reader) that you need to start tempering your expectations for Marshall.

If you are blessed with a stable of good WRs, I give you my blessing to bench Marshall. Who would have thought playing Steve Johnson over Brandon Marshall, with both healthy, would be a good play? Well, that’s the move I would make this week.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 10 projection: 6 receptions 70 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 10:

• I’m not big on T.O. or Ochocinco this week against Indy. But T.O. scored twice again in Week 9, so you pretty much have to play him unless you’re ridiculously stacked. Ocho? I wouldn’t play him over Jordan Shipley at this point.
• Mike Williams (SEA) laid another egg in Week 9. Don’t even consider him if Hasselbeck is out. Even if Hasselbeck is in, understand the huge risk and minimal reward (few TDs) Williams brings.
• Miami didn’t give up much to the Baltimore WRs in Week 9. I’d be a little nervous about using any Tennessee WRs – including Randy Moss, if you have options – in Week 10.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em TE: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville (v Houston)

Yeah, I know…this is low hanging fruit. Lewis has 7 TD catches on the season and Houston’s pass D gave up two TDs to Randy McMichael – Randy McMichael – in Week 9. This is a no brainer. But after the week I had last week with the top-line picks, I need to feel a little better about myself. After Lewis proves to be one of the best tight ends in Week 10, I’ll feel a bit better.

Marcedes Lewis fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 10:

• I don’t need to tell you to start Jacob Tamme, do I?
• Aaron Hernandez caught his first two TD passes of the season in Week 9. Now that he’s popped his TD cherry, I think there could be more to come.
• The Panthers gave up two TDs to tight ends in Week 9. Perhaps Kellen Winslow can get his first TD against them this week. He continues to get a decent amount of targets and catches, so he’s not a terrible option.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em TE: Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)

Brent Celek did not register a catch against the Colts in Week 9. This isn’t a fluke, as the Colts shut down Owen Daniels the week before, and have typically been good against tight ends. While Greshman has plenty of talent, his numbers are actually dwindling as this season progresses. There is no reason to start him this week.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 10 projection: 4 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 10:

• Kevin Boss caught a TD in Week 9, but he only had 2 catches for 15 yards, and it was in a terribly easy game against Seattle. Don’t get excited.
• John Carlson put up another disappointing line in Week 9. You can’t trust him.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em Defense: Minnesota Vikings (at Chicago)

I know that the Vikings gave up 24 points to a Derek Anderson-led Cardinals team in Week 9. While that isn’t impressive, the fact that they sacked Anderson six times is impressive. With the easily sackable Jay Cutler on the schedule for Week 10, I expect another big sack game, as well as the potential for a few INTs.

Minnesota Vikings fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or fewer points, 6 sacks, 2 INTs

Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 10:

• Tampa Bay’s D doesn’t get many sacks or force a lot of turnovers, but they are playing Carolina. That makes them a decent play.
• Just as the Vikings are a good start against the Bears, the Bears D is a decent start against a QB in Brett Favre who will throw INTs.
• St. Louis’ defense has been very good at home this year. With a Troy Smith-led 49ers team coming to town in Week 10, they are a solid option.

Update: Thanks to the astute commenter who noted that St. Louis is not playing at home this weekend. They are AT San Francisco. The Rams have not been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home this year, so I’m not quite as high on them. They aren’t a terrible play, because they are facing SF after all, but not an automatic start.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em Defense: Baltimore Ravens (at Atlanta)

The Ravens did a nice job of bottling up the Dolphins in Week 9, but they have to go into the unfriendly confines of the Georgia Dome in Week 10. Matt Ryan and the Falcons play excellent football, especially offensively, when they are at home. I don’t expect the Ravens D – which isn’t what its reputation suggests – to have a great outing in Week 10.

Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Week 10 projection: 24 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 10:

• After New England got torched by the one-dimensional Browns in Week 9, I’m not too excited about them against a good Pittsburgh offense.
• Seattle’s defense is done as a playable unit. Done. They suck.

The comment section is yours. Have at it. We’ll be here answering all week.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Q&A

Last week I opened up the Start em, Sit em post by telling you about how was I was off to a strong 5-2 start in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy League*. With the stakes being two tickets to the Super Bowl, you can imagine how much focus I’ve put on doing well in this league.

This week, I must regretfully inform you that I lost in Week 8, falling to 5-3 with a 14 point loss. The worst part? A win was sitting on my bench.

I wrestled all week with Fred Jackson versus BenJarvus Green-Ellis at my RB#2 slot. I finally settled on Jackson because he had gotten about the twice the number of touches as BJGE in weeks 6 and 7, and because the Chiefs had allowed five rushing TDs on the year against only three allowed by the Vikings.

I struggled with this choice right up until kickoff, but went with Jackson and ultimately felt good about it.

Then Week 8 played out, Jackson got only 75 total yards with no scores, and I watched The Lawfirm torch the Vikings for 100+ yards and two TDs. Needless to say, it was a painful and bitter pill to swallow.

But you know what? I don’t regret my decision. I analyzed it, weighed a number of factors, and went with the player I had the most confidence in. It wasn’t like I just forgot to set my rosters or was forced to make a shotgun decision at the final moment.

It’s fantasy football though, which means that every prediction we make is inherently unpredictable. We just make the best educated guesses we can and hope for the best. All of us do. Even the most astute fantasy player.

The key is to have a consistent strategy and use sound reasoning based in statistical fact. If you do that and a decision turns out wrong? Well, you lick your wounds, learn whatever you can from it, and then turn your attention towards next week. I can’t bring BenJarvus Green-Ellis onto my active roster for Week 8, but I certainly can do everything possible to make a better start/sit decision in Week 9.

And here’s hoping I can help you make better decisions as well.

Before we delve into Week 9, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 8 with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack.
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about last week. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 8 Recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Drew Brees, Ryan Torain; Washington D, Pierre Garcon (though not to the extreme I thought)
• Start ‘em misses: Kellen Winslow;
• Sit ‘em hits: Dallas D, Chris Ivory (and all Saints RBs), Matt Schaub
• Sit ‘em misses: Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker; Brandon Pettigrew

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, and Redskins are on bye in Week 9.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Seattle)

Yes, I’m a little nervous about this because Seattle’s D is typically much better at home than on the road. However, the Seahawks were giving up 260+ passing yards per game coming into Week 8 before allowing Jason Campbell to look like a good NFL quarterback – 310 yards, 2 TDs.

While it’s true that Eli Manning can be inconsistent and will throw interceptions, he also has thrown 9 touchdowns over the last three weeks (against 5 INTs) and has one of the best WR corps in the NFL. With the Giants now running well behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, it is opening their passing game even more. With a lot of QBs on bye this week, Eli is certainly a top 10 option.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Philip Rivers is facing Houston. You do the math. It computes whether he has any healthy WRs or not.
• Aaron Rodgers may have struggled mightily against the Jets last week, but did you see what David Garrard did to Dallas? Make sure you keep ARodg in your lineup.
• Joe Flacco, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs over the last two weeks, is a very good option against the Miami Dolphins.
• Chad Henne is clearly going to keep throwing. You could do a lot worse than Henne against Baltimore, as I outlined in this week’s waiver wire sleeper article.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em QB: Matthew Stafford, Detroit (v New York Jets)

Matthew Stafford returned from injury in a big way in Week 8. He torched the Washington Redskins for 200+ yards and 4 TDs, against only one INT. Naturally, Calvin Johnson was a huge beneficiary of Stafford’s return.

However, while I like Stafford a lot long term, this week I am not too high on him with the Jets’ now-healthy secondary coming to town. Remember, Washington entered Week 8 31st in the NFL against the pass, so Stafford’s solid day shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise.

In Week 8, Darrelle Revis and the Jets held Aaron Rodgers to at 15-34 day and only 170 yards. At this point in their careers, Rodgers is a much better player than Stafford. And while the Jets statistically have not been dominant against opposing QBs this season, they also haven’t been fully healthy. It appears like now they are.

Stafford is going to have plenty of good games over the balance of the season. Week 9 just won’t be one of them.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 9 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Mark Sanchez played awful in Week 1, then got hot over the next few weeks, and has seemingly regressed again recently. You have to sit him until he proves he can produce consistently again.
• Carson Palmer has a QB rating of 78 against the Steelers during his career. He didn’t play well last week against Miami, with one of his TD passes being an absolute gift. I don’t like him this week.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick did not play terribly Week 8, but after four straight weeks of at least two TD passes, his numbers against KC were a bit underwhelming. Facing the Bears (who have given up only 4 TD passes all season) in Week 9 means Fitz will likely be underwhelming again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em RB: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (at Buffalo)

This one really isn’t hard. The Bears are struggling to protect Jay Cutler and the Bills are the worst team in the NFL against the run. In case you needed the Bills’ defensive deficiencies to be reiterated, the Chiefs top two backs ran 41 times for 254 yards. So…start your running backs when they’re playing the Bills.

Regarding Forte specifically, he’s only averaging 3.9 yards per carry this year, and he only has 3 rushing TDs, but the Bills give up 5+ yards per carry. Average those out and I think we can reasonably expect Forte to average around 4.5 yards per carry. The bonus with Forte is that he catches passes. He’s added 3 receiving TDs this year to go along with 26 catches and 300+ yards.

All in all, this is the kind of week you have Forte for. The Bears will undoubtedly ride him in a must-win game, and the matchup suggests he’ll produce.

Matt Forte fantasy football Week 9 projection: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 40 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• I mentioned LeGarrette Blount in the sleeper picks article this week. Against a so-so Atlanta run D, he needs to be in your lineup this week if you have a starter on bye.
• Darren McFadden is facing the very solid KC defense, but he went over 100 yards for the second straight week in Week 8. He plays.
• Seattle has a very good run defense, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both playing very well right now. Bradshaw is a definite must-start, and Jacobs’ ability find the end zone makes him a solid flex option too.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a great outing in Week 8 and now deserves to start every week. Danny Woodhead found his way into the end zone again and is valuable as well.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em RB: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (v Pittsburgh)

If you think I just look for whichever running back is playing Pittsburgh and then say “sit ‘em,” well you’re right. I do. And seeing as how Benson hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3, I think it’s even more reasonable this week.

When you look at Benson’s history against the Steelers, sitting him becomes even more obvious. In four career games against the Steelers, Cedric has run the ball 53 times for an average of only 3.5 yards. He’s scored just one TD.

The Bengals are scoring through the air right now, when they score at all. I still like Benson long term this season, but certainly not this week.

Cedric Benson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards rushing, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• Felix Jones and Marion Barber. Sit them until further notice. I like no Cowboys running backs until they inevitably turn it over to Tashard Choice and his 5.1 yard career average.
• Ronnie Brown has not been good at all this year. I’ve stayed confident in him, but that ends now. Ricky Williams has been the better, quicker back and is the guy who scored in Week 8. Against Baltimore, I say sit Ronnie.
• The Bears are very good defensively and Fred Jackson simply hasn’t proven to be a touchdown threat. It’s a good week to sit him.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em WR: Calvin Johnson, Detroit (v New York Jets)

You are probably thinking a couple of things:

• Isn’t starting Calvin Johnson obvious?
• How could you say start CJ when you’re telling me to sit Matthew Stafford?

As to the first question, my answer is yes, it should be obvious. Calvin Johnson is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. Hell, he may be the most talented. Need proof? His four TDs over the last three games should have done it, all coming with two different QBs under center. So yes, starting him should be obvious. But with the Jets on the schedule, I know many of you will get cold feet and ask me if you should.

This is me saying, emphatically, yes!

As to the second question, see how I’m projecting Matthew Stafford for one TD even though I’m telling you to sit him? Well guess who I think gets that TD? That’s right: Calvin Johnson.

Look, if you follow my fantasy advice you know that I always trust my stars and the guys with proven track records. It doesn’t work out every time, but it does work most of the time. And making the right decision most of the time is all you can hope for when it comes to fantasy football. Starting Calvin Johnson will be right most of the time. So start him all of the time.

Calvin Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 9:

• Terrell Owens keeps producing and you simply cannot sit him right now. With Cincinnati likely being unable to run, they’ll have to throw. The matchup isn’t great, but T.O. is clearly the #1 option right now and those targets warrant starting him.
• Dwayne Bowe only had 3 catches for 16 yards in Week 8, but it was the third straight game in which he has caught a TD. Facing an Oakland team likely to be without its top corner, Bowe has weaseled his way into must-start status with something we’ve never seen from him before: consistency.
• Whoever is playing WR for the Chargers in Week 9 – be it Malcom Floyd, Patrick Crayton, Buster Davis, or the guy whose name is hard to spell – will be productive. The Chargers face the Texans’ pass D, and we know how that usually goes.
• Don’t get too down on Miles Austin (like I did in Week 8). He had 7 catches for 117 yards in Week 8 and should be good against in Week 9. Dez Bryant was also solid. Curiously, Roy Williams has not been able to get going with his old friend Jon Ktina. I’d sit him until he does.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em WR: Steve Johnson, Buffalo (v Chicago)

I am well aware that Steve Johnson has caught a touchdown pass in five straight games. He’s also faced some pass defenses during that streak that I wouldn’t be too scared of. (Remember, Revis wasn’t healthy when they faced the Jets). In Week 9, Johnson faces a Bears D that has given up only four passing touchdowns all season.

When players have not done well, we often justify playing them by saying that they “are due”. Well, shouldn’t there be an equivalent for a guy who is probably playing over his head during an extended period of time?

Johnson is a fine player, and he is emerging as a solid fantasy option, but he’s not going to catch a touchdown every week. Johnson will probably put up 4-5 catches and 50-60 yards even if he doesn’t grab a TD, but you can probably do better than that.

Steve Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 9:

• When everyone went nuts about Deion Branch after his first game back with Tom Brady, I was the voice of reason telling you not to get too optimistic. A few subpar games later and it looks like I was right. Branch will be too unpredictable to count on.
• I’m not a real big fan of any Jets receivers – Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes especially – until they show some consistency and their QB gets back on track.
• You all laughed when I didn’t jump completely onto the Mike Williams (SEA) bandwagon. He responded by catching one pass for 27 yards in Week 8. The Tampa Bay Mike Williams has officially become the better option.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em TE: Todd Heap, Baltimore (v Miami)

Heap was my primary TE pickup in the waiver wire post this week. The reason? He caught two TDs his last time out and the Dolphins have been generous to tight ends this year. Heap won’t catch more than 3-4 balls max, but he’s clearly a guy Joe Flacco looks to in the red zone. With so many good TEs on bye this week, that’s good enough for me.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week 9 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs in Week 9:

• I still like Dustin Keller. With Mark Sanchez struggling, I think he goes back to the guy he was clicking with early in the season. Detroit provides an inviting matchup with which to do so.
• Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore are both decent options in Cleveland as long as Colt McCoy is the QB. Even if he’s not, who else will Seneca Wallace or Jake Delhomme throw to?

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (v New York Jets)

Pettigrew did catch a TD in Week 8, but he only had 2 receptions for 8 yards overall. With the Jets coming to town a week after holding Green Bay tight ends to 1 catch for 5 yards, Pettigrew is not a guy I would want to be counting on. He’ll have plenty more good games this season; Week 9 just probably won’t be one of them.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 9 projection: 2 receptions, 15 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 9:

• Jermaine Gresham’s production has really stagnated. I wouldn’t expect it to pick up against the Steelers.
• There aren’t enough touches to go around in New York for Kevin Boss to get his. This guy should not really be owned in any leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em Defense: New England Patriots (at Cleveland)

The Patriots defense has not been all that spectacular from a fantasy perspective this year outside of their monstrous performance against the Dolphins. However, wouldn’t you like your chances with a Bill Belichick defense against a rookie QB with very few play-makers? I would, and that’s exactly what we get in Week 9 with the Pats likely going up against Colt McCoy.

Yes, the Browns are coming off a bye, but the Patriots also bottled up the potent Vikings offense pretty well. That bodes well for a solid Week 9 performance.

New England Patriots fantasy football Week 9 projection: 14 or fewer points, 2 TOs, 3 sacks, potential for a TD (special teams or terrible McCoy pass)

Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 9:

• The Chiefs should pretty much be started every week in every league right now. Week 9 against the Raiders is no exception.
• Green Bay’s D against Jon Kitna and no running game? Yes please.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em Defense: Seattle Seahawks (v New York Giants)

I trusted the Seahawks in Week 8 and they let me down. Sure, they were on the road, and they’re back at home in Week 9, but I’m still not sold on Seattle as an elite defense. With the potent Giants offense coming to town, I think the Seahawks could struggle to put up fantasy numbers outside of the inevitable INTs they’ll get from Eli.

Seattle Seahawks fantasy football Week 9 projection: 24 or more points, 2 TOs, 1 sack

Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 9:

• I was way too high on Tampa Bay’s defense in Week 8. Though they scored defensive touchdowns, those are impossible to predict and they otherwise got torched by the Cardinals. Playing the Falcons in Atlanta does not lead to much confidence.
• I think the Miami-Baltimore game could end up producing a lot of points. I wouldn’t be too excited about either D playing for me.

And that’s it. The comment section is yours. Ask away.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Roster Advice and Q&A

As I anticipated it would be, Week 2 was much better for me than Week 1. It’s always nice to be able to see everyone play a real game before trying to prognosticate how they will do.

Week 2 wasn’t perfect, but still a rather solid performance.

The hits and misses:

• Start ‘em hits: LeSean McCoy, Chris Cooley, Oakland D, Austin Collie
• Start ‘em misses: Eli Manning
• Sit ‘em hits: Brett Favre, Felix Jones, Owen Daniels, Buffalo Bills D, Michael Crabtree
• Sit ‘em misses:

But no resting on our laurels. Week 2 is over. Let’s turn the page to Week 3 and see who should start and who should sit.

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

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Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em QB: Tony Romo, Dallas (@ Houston)

I know you’re wary of starting Tony Romo after Weeks 1 and 2. He’s racked up a lot of yardage (600+ yards) but has only 2 TDs to show for it, plus 2 INTs. Unfortunately for Romo owners, such inefficient stats are looking like what we should expect in 2010. The Cowboys can rack up yards, but this team simply has not shown an ability to find the end zone consistently, nor have they established a running game to take the pressure off Romo and help move the chains.

But in Week 3, Romo has a matchup you absolutely must exploit. Here are the numbers for the QBs the Houston Texans have played during the first two weeks of 2010:

• Peyton Manning: 40-57, 433 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
• Donovan McNabb: 28-38, 426 yards, 1 TD

What else do I need to say? Start Romo. Then worry about him in Week 5 (Dallas has a bye in Week 4) when he faces Tennessee.

Tony Romo fantasy football week 3 projection: 350 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• It’s probably time to start buying Kyle Orton as a guy you can start weekly and feel good about. With 4 TDs through two games and Indy up next, Orton’s worth a look.
• Brett Favre has been my sit ‘em QB two weeks in a row. And two weeks in a row I’ve been right. Detroit is the opponent in Week 2, and both Jay Cutler and Michael Vick have put up good numbers against them. I think Favre gets rolling – a little bit – this week.
• Whoever plays QB for the Eagles, whether it’s Michael Vick or Kevin Kolb, start ‘em. Jacksonville’s defense is not very good.
• Yeah, a fourth one. It’s a good week for QBs! Carolina is giving up lots of points to opposing QBs. Start Carson Palmer as he, Ocho, and TO pad their otherwise woeful stats.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)

What!? But Flacco owners have been licking their chops for the Cleveland game! Yeah, well so were the Tampa Bay and Kansas City offenses too. This was the result for the QBs:

• Josh Freeman: 182 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Matt Cassel: 176 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs

So while the competition hasn’t been great, the Browns are giving up an average of less than 200 yards and only 1 TD per week. While Baltimore certainly has more weapons on offense than Tampa Bay or Kansas City, they’ve looked putrid so far this season against two pretty solid defenses.

Cleveland is no Jets or Bengals D, but they are decent. With all of the startable QBs who have favorable matchups this week, I’d love to sit Flacco until he figures out how to use his new weapons. And, for the record, Flacco threw only one TD in two games against Cleveland last year.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 3 projection: 225 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• So Vince Young is still a threat to get pulled for Kerry Collins? I know it was Pittsburgh, and they are really good on D, but I’m sitting Vince against a stout Giants front four.
• That’s two straight stinkers from Matt Cassel. Sit him until further notice. (Hopefully you weren’t planning to start him anyway.)
• Anyone getting excited about Josh Freeman’s four TDs in two games? Good, hope you enjoyed it. He won’t do that against Pittsburgh in Week 3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Indianapolis)

Update 9/24: Well that didn’t go so well, huh? Knowshon Moreno has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game, despite not appearing on the injury report all week.

Can we all agree that as an NFL running back, Knowshon Moreno will probably not be the explosive, dynamic runner he was in college at Georgia? Okay, good.

Now, can we all also agree that he is Denver’s main man in the backfield and – assuming he stays healthy – will be a steady-eddie type guy who will get touches and a solid #2 RB/flex play? Okay good.

In Week 2, Moreno had 28 touches and racked up 118 yards, plus a TD. There is nothing explosive about that, but it helps you move the chains, so to speak, in your fantasy matchups. Against Indy? Even better. The run D was better for the Colts Sunday night, but they still gave up 5.2 yards per carry to Ahmad Bradshaw.

Start Moreno with confidence this week.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 3 projection: 95 yards rushing, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• You know what? I’m not sure I care right now if Beanie Wells plays in Week 3 or not. Tim Hightower has had two productive weeks and the Cardinals will have to ride their running game with Derek Anderson at QB. Oakland is a good matchup too.
• Matt Forte has been more productive as a receiver than a runner for two weeks. Who cares? It all counts the same. Green Bay will pressure Jay Cutler like Dallas did, but Chicago showed they can deal with it. Start Forte.
• You might wonder whether you should start Jahvid Best at RB against a solid Minnesota run D that bottled up Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Yeah, well I was hesitant to start him against Chicago and Philly too. 5 TDs later, start this guy. He’s electric.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em RB: All Dallas RBs (@ Houston)

Felix Jones was my sit ‘em RB in Week 2. That worked out well. This week, allow me to expand my sit recommendation for the single most overrated position on one team in the NFL.

Everyone talks about the supposed three-headed running back monster in Dallas. Too bad none of them are worthy of starting. And against Houston? Well neither Joseph Addai or Clinton Portis did much against Houston (and don’t talk to me about Portis’ two short-yardage TDs; you can’t predict that and he had 33 yards on 13 carries).

This is going to be a shootout with Matt Schaub and Tony Romo trading touchdown passes. Maybe one of the Dallas RBs goes off, but I’d much prefer to have Marion Barber and Felix Jones sitting on my bench until someone emerges as the guy who will get 15-20 touches per week and do something with them.

Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice fantasy football week 3 projection: 50 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Carnell Williams. Every week, just check to see who Pittsburgh is facing. Then sit that running back. Now move along.
• CJ Spiller got one carry and four receptions against Green Bay. He’s clearly losing the rookie RB race to Jahvid Best…by a mile. Sit Spiller until he proves he’s worth starting.
• I’m sick and damn tired of the Jerome Harrison saga in Cleveland. One week he makes me look good, one week he makes me look like an idiot. The Browns finally gave him some carries (16) against KC and Harrison runs for 33 yards. Sure, the Chiefs were keying on him to prevent what happened last year, but I’m not rolling the dice against Baltimore.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em WR: Dez Bryant, Dallas (at Houston)

Can you tell I like the Dallas passing game this week?

I’m obviously not going to tell you to start Miles Austin, because that’s too easy. But if Tony Romo throws for 400+ yards (as both QBs have done against Houston this season) then someone else is going to have a big day. And I’m definitely not telling you to start Roy Williams.

Bryant only had 2 catches in Week 2, but he was targeted often in Week 1 when he had 8 catches for 56 yards. In Week 2, Bryant’s value this past Sunday came from his punt return TD. The Cowboys only let him return kicks when he’ll have a chance for a run back, and based on what we saw in Week 2 he’s got the goods to do it any time.

I like this to be Bryant’s breakout game as receiver. Plus, the Cowboys are desperate and Bryant is perhaps their most talented offensive player. They need to start getting him involved, especially in the red zone, to change their fortunes. I think he could have a really big week.

Dez Bryant fantasy football week 3 projection: 8 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs in Week 3:

• Dallas might be without cornerback Mike Jenkins, and their safeties are terrible. You know Andre Johnson is a must-start, but give Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter a look too.
• Mark Clayton only had two catches in Week 2, but he made them count; both were touchdowns. Playing a Washington D that gave up a ton through the air in Week 2 (granted, it was to Houston’s aerial attack and not a rookie QB) I think Clayton needs to be in your lineup.
• I am a Brandon Marshall owner. If you are, you may be concerned about the same things I am for this week: he hasn’t gotten into the end zone; Chad Henne does not look good despite the ‘Fins 2-0 record; and, the Jets are on the schedule in Week 3. I don’t care. Start Marshall. Darrelle Revis is a bit banged up, the Patriots proved you can get scores through the air against the Jets, and Marshall is a primetime player. He’ll shine on Sunday night…assuming Henne can get it to him.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em WR: Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh (@ Tampa Bay)

Wallace actually had more receptions in Week 2 (2) than Hines Ward did (1). Still, I’m a card carrying member of the I Love Hines Ward As a Consistent Fantasy Starter Club, so I’m not going to tell you to sit him unless you have some really good alternatives.

However, with the QB flux in Pittsburgh, neither Ward nor Wallace is an especially strong start this week. And seeing as how Wallace’s value comes from big plays, he is the one more likely to feel the effect of whatever non-Big Ben QB trots out there for Pittsburgh next week.

Plus, neither Cleveland nor Carolina (granted, two terrible passing games) had much success through the air against the Bucs. So there’s that too.

Mike Wallace fantasy football Week 3 projection: 2 receptions 29 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Lee Evans didn’t have a catch this week when I recommended him as a start to a few people. Thanks Lee. Sit this guy as long as Trent Edwards is the QB.
• Legedu Naanee followed up his sterling Week 1 performance with a 1 rec, 14 yard stinker in Week3. I’m not a big fan of him at all as a weekly starter.
• You know how Devin Aromashodu was supposed to break out this week? Umm…he didn’t even register a single catch. While the Bears’ passing attack will probably be a merry-go-round all year, I wouldn’t feel confident starting him right now.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em TE: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (at Miami)

Do you get it yet? Mark Sanchez loves his tight end.

Keller had 7 receptions for 115 yards and a TD against New England in Week 2. The Jets’ Week 3 opponent Miami gave up 6 receptions and 86 yards to Visanthe Shiancoe in Week 2. Do the math. Start Keller.

And consider Keller a weekly start until Mark Sanchez stops looking to him on almost every dropback.

Dustin Keller fantasy football week 3 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• See that stat above regarding Shiancoe? Well the Vikes are playing Detroit this week. I foresee a TD.
• Jermichael Finley was over 100 yards in Week 2 despite not scoring. He’ll score this year. Plenty. Don’t worry and start him.
• Mercedes Lewis had a second straight good game. The Jaguars are at home (which means David Garrard will play well). Philly gave up 7 catches and 108 yards to Brandon Pettigrew in Week 2. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but everything points to a solid day for Lewis.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (vs Pittsburgh)

The Solider had four catches for 83 yards in Week 2, but he faces the fearsome Pittsburgh D in Week 3. I don’t see a whole lot of scoring chances materializing for the Bucs and young QB Josh Freeman. Thus, I think Winslow’s value is limited.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football week 3 projection: 3 catches, 31 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• I’d be careful with Jason Witten. He doesn’t score many TDs anyway and banged his head pretty good in Week 2. Make sure you have a good alternative if you’re going to sit him, but I wouldn’t mind doing so this week.
• Brandon Pettigrew had a nice day in Week 2, but may not find so many opportunities against a Minnesota defense that doesn’t give up much to opposing TEs.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘em D/ST: New England Patriots (vs Buffalo)

The Bills are going to be a fantasy-friendly opposing offense all season long. With the Patriots smarting from their loss to the Jets, and the way they played in the first half against Cincy still in my mind, I like the Patriots in Week 3.

New England Patriots fantasy football Week 3 projection: 13 points or less, 2 TOs, 3 sacks

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 3:

• Miami’s defense is pretty damn good. It’s always nerve-wracking recommending the Dolphins in any way against yearly foil the Jets, but I think the D could be solid Sunday night.
• Washington gets to face a St. Louis offense that will improve in years to come…but that isn’t very good right now. Start the ‘Skins against the rookie QB.
• Cincinnati at Carolina looks like a pretty sweet matchup for the Bengals’ D.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sit ‘em D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles (at Jacksonville)

Don’t get overconfident about this matchup after the Jaguars Week 2 stinker. It was on the road, where the Jags typically play poorly. They’ll be out to avenge such a bad performance, and the Eagles have given up a ton of yards and points to the Packers and Lions during the first two weeks of the season.

I wouldn’t drop the Eagles yet, but they have not been nearly as good as we expected so far in 2010.

Philadelphia Eagles fantasy football Week 2 projection: 21+ points given up, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units in Week 3:

• Chicago faces the Green Bay juggernaut. I’d prefer to not be starting the Bears.
• I obviously don’t want the Texans D starting, and I don’t want Dallas’ D starting either next week. That game should be a shootout.

As always, your questions are welcomed in the comment section and I will answer as many as I can as quickly as I can. Live chats Friday and Sunday morning, plus all of our other usual posts as scheduled this week.

Best of luck in Week 3 everyone!

Friday Injury Updates: Boldin, Nicks, Bush, and more

As we do every Friday morning, let’s rundown the more important names on the injury report so you know who is out, who will play, and who is a game-time decision as you plan your lineup choices for Sunday.

Anquan Boldin is on the injury report with a thigh issue and has been limited at practice this week. Not much is known about the injury, but he should be fine for Sunday. Boldin’s teammate Todd Heap, however, is a different story. Heap strained his shoulder and missed Wednesday’s practice. He was limited Thursday, which is good news that he at least got on the field. It sounds like he is going to be a game time decision, but one worth watching considering the team-high 11 targets he got Monday night.

Hakeem Nicks, one of the breakout stars of Week 1, has not been practicing this week because of an ankle injury that purportedly occurred in the 2nd quarter last week. However, as CBS Sports points out, Nicks caught one of his TDs after that happened, so the injury cannot be too serious. All indications are that Nicks will play, but you’ll still want to keep an eye on this one.

Michael Bush missed the Raiders’ Week 1 game and was limited in practice on Thursday after participating fully on Wednesday. If he plays on Sunday, Bush will split carries with McFadden. It is unclear now whether his practice load on Thursday was a result of a setback or the Raiders simply keeping him fresh. Either way, monitor this one up until game time. If Bush plays, he’s a decent flex option. If he doesn’t Darren McFadden‘s value obviously increases.

Percy Harvin is – surprise, surprise – uncertain for Sunday. The good news is that the issue is not migraines. The bad news is that he now has a hip malady that is slowing him down. According to reports, Harvin says he’ll be fine for Sunday. Watch this one as the weekend progresses. You may need to make a last minute switcheroo if Harvin is unable to go. Otherwise, I like his chances to have a decent week. In related news, Brett Favre remains old. He will also start his millionth game in a row.

Beanie Wells is iffy again this week as he battles a knee injury. He has been a limited participant in practice all week, which is at least better than last week. Watch the practice reports from today. If Wells gets a full practice load today, he should be ready to go and split carries with Tim Hightower Sunday. If not, he might sit again as the Cardinals want him fully healthy when he does return.

In Washington, Donovan McNabb and Clinton Portis are both old and both perpetually on the injury report. They’re on it again this week, but as full practice participants. If you’re so inclined, both are safe to start.

Charles Woodson has been bothered by a toe injury. He hasn’t practices much but all indications are that he’ll play this week for the Packers against Buffalo.

Jake Delhomme is dealing with a pretty serious ankle injury that has kept him out of practice. It doesn’t look like he’ll play, in which case Seneca Wallace will get the start. If you are thinking of starting the Browns’ starting QB in anything but a 3 QB league, you have serious roster issues and should probably quit right now.

Devin Aromashodu and Matt Forte are both on the injury report, but both were full time practice participants on Thursday. They should be fine, but have a tough Week 2 matchup against Dallas.

Marc Colombo and Kyle Kosier are both expected to play for Dallas on Sunday. Why is this relevant for fantasy owners? Because hopefully Tony Romo won’t have to run for his life on every play, and hopefully when he throws TDs this week they won’t be called back because of holding. This is a good lesson: pay attention to O-Line injuries too, as they can affect the skill players more than you might think.

Kevin Kolb is out with a concussion. Michael Vick will start Sunday for the Lions. But I’m sure you knew this one already.

Jahvid Best is on the Lions’ injury report with a toe injury, but he practiced fully and should be fine for Sunday.

Kellen Winslow is not practicing this week, but is expected to play. The Bucs coaches simply want to keep him fresh. His quarterback Josh Freeman is on the injury report but is practicing fully.

Matt Moore suffered a concussion in Week 1 but practiced fully on Thursday and is expected to start on Sunday against Tampa Bay.

Mike Williams of the Seahawks did not practice Wednesday or Thursday but should play on Sunday.

New Broncos RB Laurence Maroney did not practice Thursday as he is dealing with a thigh issue. Eddie Royal has been a slowed a bit this week but is expected to play Sunday.

Steven Jackson had an MRI on his knee early in the week that showed he’s fine. He practiced fully on Thursday and is expected to play. Teammate Laurent Robinson was a limited practice participant Thursday. He’ll need to be monitored.

David Garrard was a limited practice participant on Thursday, but is expected to start Sunday vs San Diego.

Anthony Gonzalez has already been ruled out of the Colts’ Sunday night game vs the Giants. He has a high ankle sprain.

Here is the official NFL injury report.

Monday Morning Observations: Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Steve Breaston, and more

As I’ll try to do every Monday morning, here is a smorgasbord of quick hit observations after a full slate of Sunday games.

If I’m a Tony Romo owner, and I am in one keeper league, I am both encouraged and concerned by what I saw last night.

I’m encouraged because Miles Austin looks as good as ever, Dez Bryant is talented and involved in the gameplan, and Roy Williams actually made a tough catch before getting drilled. I’m concerned, however, because the Cowboys’ offensive line is awful and they are inept once they get in the red zone. And if I had to weigh the two feelings, I’m probably a little more concerned than encouraged.

Arian Foster owners should temper their expectations a little bit because they just experience the best fantasy day he’ll ever have, but we now have one more piece of evidence pointing to Foster being the real deal and a weekly start at RB.

I would not overreact to Frank Gore‘s rough day against Seattle. He’s the focal point of the offense, and the six receptions are encouraging. I would, however, react to Michael Crabtree‘s terrible showing (2 receptions, 12 yards). I can already tell you he’ll be my “sit ‘em” WR for this week as the rust from playing no preseason games was evident.

David Garrard will always try to lull you in with the random 3 TD performance, which he did twice last year. Don’t get overly excited. Unfortunately, he only threw 9 TDs in the other 14 games; and the Jaguars were playing Denver, remember.

We all thought the Seahawks backfield rotation was a bit more clear after Julius Jones was cut and Justin Forsett was named the starter. Well…not so much. The Seahawks re-signed Jones and then split the carries 7-8-6 between Forsett, Jones, and Leon Washington, respectively. This could be a weekly merry-go-round.

If the Browns continue to display their abject hate for Jerome Harrison next week, against the team he torched for 286 yards in 2009, then it’s time to start getting very worried. Until then, resist the urge.

How can you not be encouraged by Matt Forte‘s first day in Mike Martz’s system? Not only did Forte get 17 carries (which he could only turn into 50 yards thanks to his porous O-Line) but he also caught 7 passes for 151 yards and 2 TDs. And while Forte has historically owned the Lions, I don’t think Week 1 was a fluke.

Until further notice, I wouldn’t start anyone on the Washington offense expect Chris Cooley. Dallas has a really good defense, but the Redskins also need some time to gel.

If you own any offensive players on Carolina, I think it’s a good time to get your finger near the panic button. Don’t push it yet; it’s only Week 1, but seeing Matt Moore lay an egg against the Giants, then get hurt, means that there could be more days of 237 total yards and only one TD in Carolina’s future. On the other hand, the Panthers’ QB struggles could also mean they simply chuck the passing game and start pounding DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Those two combined for 21 carries in Week 1. My prediction is that number is their lowest combined carry total of the year.

Michael Vick is back to tempt us all, including his coach in real life. If you own Kevin Kolb, it goes without saying that Vick is a must-own handcuff. In deep or 2 QB leagues, Vick is also a very intriguing add this week. Certainly he has value next week if he starts, and you may just want to speculate here on the off chance that he eventually takes over this Eagles’ offense.

The discouraging news for Brandon Marshall owners in Week 1 is that he didn’t get into the endzone and accumulated only 53 yards. The good news is that Buffalo is very good against the pass yet Marshall was still able to hook up with Chad Henne eight times. Marshal will have many bigger days and will be PPR gold this season, like he always is.

See what I mean about C.J. Spiller being hit or miss? Incredibly Spiller accounted for only 14 total yards and still came close to fellow rookie Jahvid Best’s total for Detroit. The difference is that Best was able to score on two short TD runs, which is why I’ve liked Best’s value more as a weekly start. He won’t be as explosive, and you cannot count on two TDs or even one every week, but Best will get more such opportunities because the Lions’ offense is better (especially once Matthew Stafford returns).

One question you don’t need to ask anymore: should I start Hakeem Nicks? The answer is yes. He will have a Plaxico-like season this year.

I was wrong about Steve Breaston and Derek Anderson not being able to hook up consistently. While Larry Fitzgerald caught the touchdown, Breaston became Anderson’s security blanket, catching 7 passes for 132 yards. I should have remembered how often Anderson looked to Joe Jurevicius during his Pro Bowl 2007 season. Looks like Breaston could fill that role in a more explosive way here in 2010.

Wes Welker is back. I don’t regret telling you to take a wait-and-see approach with his knee in Week 1, but know that we’ve waited and seen…get him in your lineup and leave him there. And yes, do the same with Randy Moss, despite his post-game comments. And no, I would not be shocked to see Tom Brady end up as the #1 fantasy QB this year.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson will have many better days in 2010. Worry not.

I’m not buying Matt Hasselbeck, Mike Williams, or anyone else on the Seattle offense. Not yet. Strange things happen in Week 1, and I want to see how this team looks once the Pete Carroll Honeymoon of Exuberance is over and they realize how depleted their roster is. San Francisco is going to look back at Week 1 later in the season and just shake their heads.

I’m also not buying the other Mike Williams in Tampa Bay. He had 5 catches for 30 yards and a touchdown, but he’s a rookie. Rookie WRs are inconsistent. If you can find someone who will trade you a consistent #3 WR like Jabar Gaffney for him, do it. Now.

Of course there are many, many more observations, but I’ll have to save some for my Start em, Sit em column, which should be ready to go tomorrow.

What I’m looking for tonight

We have two Monday night games tonight, and here are the key storylines I’m interested in:

• If the Ravens get the ball inside the 5 yard line, who is taking the snaps at running back?
• How do the Jets split up the carries between Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson?
• Who is the #1 receiving option for Mark Sanchez? Is it Dustin Keller?
• Can the Ravens contain a rather porous Jets passing attack?
• How do the Chiefs split up the carries between Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones?
• How comfortable is Philip Rivers going to Malcolm Floyd as his go-to guy?
• Is Ryan Mathews as good as everyone says he is? If so, he should romp all over Kansas City.

How about you? What were your observations from yesterday’s game? What are you watching for tonight?

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Does it seem to you like the first full Sunday of regular season NFL action is still a ways off?

I don’t know why, but it does for me. Then I look at the calendar and – surprise, surprise! – we’re just a week away from a full slate of games on Sunday and Monday, and a mere five days away from the official kickoff of the 2010 season in the Superdome.

And that means it is time to start thinking about your Week 1 lineups.

As I did every week last year, I will once again be delving into the matchups to highlight guys you might normally start who you should think about sitting and, on the flip side, guys you might normally sit who you should think about starting.

Update: A new fantasy football feature on MSF this year is yours truly and his bearded mug on YouTube yapping about fantasy strategy. View Episode 1 of Fantasy Football 3-2-1 here, and you can view the recently posted Episode 2 right here:

And now back to your regularly scheduled start em, sit em advice.

Now remember: the advice here is not absolute; by that I mean that just because I say “sit Brett Favre” doesn’t mean I’d start Derek Anderson over him. It just means that you should downgrade Favre from what you’d normally expect, and if you have a reasonable backup option – like, say, Alex Smith – you might want to consider starting him.

I know you know this, but I just feel better saying it so we’re all on the same page.

Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Start ‘em QB: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (vs Green Bay)

I’m not as high on Kolb as many are, mainly because I just don’t trust quarterbacks who have only started a handful of games. That said, the Packers have a banged up secondary that is essentially Charles Woodson and some scrubs, and we know that Andy Reid will not be shy about letting his young QB air it out.

Also in Kolb’s favor from a fantasy perspective is the fact that Green Bay just might have the most explosive offense in football – Indy and New Orleans included – which means that Kolb and the Eagles will have to throw early and often to keep up. That’s a great recipe for fantasy success, even for a newbie like Kolb.

Kevin Kolb Week 1 projection: 325 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 1:

• Don’t be scared about starting Philip Rivers even with Vincent Jackson out. Kansas City is not great on defense and Malcolm Floyd will step right in. Rivers is fine.
• Jay Cutler is going to be up and down this season, and he may get whacked a few times by Ndamukong Suh, but you have to start him against Detroit.
• Alex Smith is a sneaky Week 1 play. Seattle is bad all around and the 49ers have an underrated offense with passing game play makers like Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, and Josh Morgan.

Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at New Orleans)

I’m glad I don’t own Brett Favre in any leagues because he absolutely terrifies me this year. Another year of age, his apparent reluctance to return, the loss of Sidney Rice, the mysteries of Percy Harvin…I could go on and on.

Still, despite all of that, logic suggests that Favre will still be a worthwhile fantasy starter most weeks. He might not be as good as last year, but even 85-90% of that is still pretty good.

But Thursday night against New Orleans? In what is sure to be a raucous Superdome? I believe Senate Minority Leader John Boehner said it best: Hell no!

It’s become a cliche this offseason to say that the Saints showed everyone the “blueprint” for how to beat Old Favre: knock him around. But it’s a cliche because it’s true. And while the Saints weren’t exactly splitting the atom in devising this strategy, it is surely what they will try again.

Without his favorite deep threat, with the ankle apparently still tender, and with a packed house of screaming New Orleansites against them, I see the Vikings just trying to get out of this game alive. There won’t be much fantasy goodness to be had for anyone in purple but AD.

Brett Favre Week 1 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 1:

• I have to admit, I’m a little worried about Tony Romo, and the fact that Dallas opens at Washington, a team that has played the Cowboys tough in recent years, worries me even more. The Cowboys offense is struggling and I’d like to see Romo get going before I confidently start him.
• I’m also worried about the other QB in that game, Donovan McNabb. He’s been hobbled, and the Cowboys can pressure the quarterback.
• Chad Henne is facing Buffalo, a team that cannot do much right but has one of the best secondaries in football.

Start ‘em RB: C.J. Spiller, Buffalo (vs Miami)

I know what you’re probably thinking: what? Mr. Rookie Hater is suggesting we start CJ Spiller in his first ever game? What gives???

Here is what gives: Spiller is the most talented rookie running back this year and needs little help from his QB or O-line to do what he does best, which is break off big runs. He might get stuffed 10-12 times, but Spiller is already among the handful of most explosive backs in the game and only needs one or two big runs to create a productive stat line.

And in Week 1 he will not have Fred Jackson or Marshawn Lynch there to steal his touches. It will be the CJ Spiller show and he will clearly be the most talented offensive player on his team. There is no way he gets less than 15 touches, and I like his chances – especially with a little dose of NFL debut adrenaline – of turning those 15-20 touches into 100+ yards and a score.

Be cautious though. Future weeks could get dicey when Buffalo goes on the road and when Jackson and Lynch crowd the backfield.

C.J. Spiller Week 1 projection: 17 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 30 yards

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 1:

• I talked about him in this week’s Black & White debate: Matt Forte will have a very good season. In Week 1 he gets to face a normally generous Detroit defense. I like his chances for success.
• Another guy I wrote about this week is Jerome Harrison, and I like him a lot in Week 1. Tampa Bay was not good against the run last year, and Harrison no longer has Montario Hardesty to worry about.
• I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Darren McFadden might not be a bad flex option in Week 1, if for not other reason than he will be getting feature back carries. Michael Bush is hurt, so McFadden is basically all they’ve got. In a PPR league, definitely start him. In a regular league, at least consider it.

Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (vs Baltimore)

Maybe you weren’t even considering starting LT anyway; if so, good for you.

I’m definitely not as bullish on him this year as others are. In this game, I definitely wouldn’t start him. The Ravens may have question marks galore in their secondary, but this team can still stop the run, and I just don’t see Tomlinson getting enough chances to make anything happen.

Could he vulture a TD? Sure he could. And for that reason he’ll never be a terrible flex play. Still, there are plenty of guys who will get more carries, even in a backup role, against worse defenses (Thomas Jones comes to mind) that should be started over Tomlinson.

LaDainian Tomlinson Week 1 projection: 8 carries, 22 yards, 0 TD, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 1:

• I do not have high hopes at all for Brandon Jacobs this season. You shouldn’t either. I’d sit him against Carolina in Week 1.
• I know that people are high on Felix Jones, but I still have trouble trusting him. Washington is normally good on defense, so I worry about Felix making a huge impact.
• Jonathan Stewart did not play at all in the preseason. Considering that he’s in a time-share with DeAngelo Williams as it is, I’m not real high on playing him. I’d take a wait-and-see and make sure he’s fully healthy and ready to produce.

Start ‘em WR: Jacoby Jones, Houston (vs Indianapolis)

I don’t often go out on this far a limb for my main pick at a particular position, but I have a good feeling about Jacoby Jones in Week 1.

First of all, it’s Houston-Indy, which means a lot of points will be scored. Secondly, by all accounts Jones has established himself as the second best receiver on the Texans. Thirdly, Jones has Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, and even the returning-from-injury Owen Daniels to take attention away from him. I have confidence that Jones can win one-on-one matchups in the secondary, and that Matt Schaub will find him.

The Texans are treating their Week 1 matchup against the Colts like it’s their Super Bowl. I think they’ll win the game, and I think Jacoby Jones will be the #1 most added player before Week 2. (He’s only 66% owned in Yahoo leagues right now…which is crazy!)

Jacoby Jones Week 1 fantasy projection: 5 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 1:

• I like Terrell Owens to make a splash in his first game with Cincy. Plus, New England’s defense apparently is going to be awful this year.
• Jabar Gaffney is the #1 WR in Denver and has built the most rapport with Kyle Orton. I see that carrying over into a strong Week 1 performance.
• Michael Crabtree may have gotten into a shouting match with his tight end, but I think all will be well in Week 1 when the underrated 49ers offense takes on Seattle. Crabtree may be a diva, but he’s a talented one.

Sit ‘em WR: Wes Welker, New England (vs Cincinnati)

Long-term, I really like Wes Welker in PPR leagues this year, but it is important to note that Welker hasn’t sounded overly confident this week regarding his comeback from knee surgery. Sure, he’s not going on the PUP list, he’s played during the preseason, and he’ll start in Week 1…but he’s been quick to admit that he doesn’t feel like himself.

I don’t own Welker in any leagues this year, but I’d sit him in Week 1 if I had a decent option on my bench. #1, I’d like to see him produce in a real game to gain confidence. #2, Cincinnati has one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Welker might very well prove healthy and ready to go with a strong performance…but it’s far from guaranteed, and you should set your lineup accordingly.

Wes Welker Week 1 fantasy projection: 4 receptions, 47 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 1:

• I love Mike Wallace this year, but I don’t know that I love him with the Steelers’ first and second QB options on the bench. Wallace becomes a monster once Big Ben gets back though.
• Resist the urge to play Dez Bryant if you own him. He’s coming off of an injury, the Cowboys are facing Washington, and he’s competing with a lot of talented players for touches. Let him prove himself first.
• This is the first opportunity I’ve had to do this in 2010, so I’m going to take it: sit Braylon Edwards. I don’t care that he’s playing Baltimore’s non-existent secondary. He sucks and his QB has been playing poorly. Wait for glimpses of 2007 before you even think about starting Braylon.

Start ‘em TE: Zach Miller, Oakland (at Tennessee)

Zach Miller is a hot name as a TE sleeper in 2010, and I agree. His new QB Jason Campbell was very fond of Chris Cooley in Washington, and I think Miller could put up Cooley-esque numbers in 2010. Against a Tennessee defense that is tough to run on, and with nary a dependable candidate on the outside, Campbell will likely go to Miller early and often.

Zach Miller Week 1 fantasy projection: 8 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 1:

• Speaking of Chris Cooley…he’s back. Don’t forget about him. He should have a solid Week 1.
• Keep your eye on Jermaine Gresham. New England is not good defensively and Carson Palmer likes his new tight end toy.

Sit ‘em TE: John Carlson, Seattle (vs San Francisco)

For the life of me I cannot understand why so many people are high on John Carlson this year. What has he ever really done? With an over-the-hill QB and facing one of the league’s toughest defenses, I just don’t see the upside.

John Carlson Week 1 fantasy projection: 4 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit ‘em TEs for Week 1:

• Owen Daniels is going to be brought back slowly by the Texans. He could still catch a TD, but I’d prefer to sit him if I could and see how active he’ll be in the early part of the season.
• Greg Olsen sucks. Don’t be seduced by the Detroit matchup. I want to see consistency from Olsen before I consider starting him.

Start ‘em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (at Buffalo)

The Dolphins are the defense I’ve targeted for Week 1 in as many leagues as I can. They can pressure the QB, should see improved play from their two young corners, and have a great matchup in Buffalo. The Bills are still relying on Trent Edwards at QB and basically will have C.J. Spiller and maybe a deep ball or two to Lee Evans; that’s it.

Miami Dolphins D/ST Week 1 projection: 14 points or less, 3 forced turnovers

Other Start ‘em D/ST units for Week 1:

• I know Dallas is supposed to have a great offense, but I still like Washington in Week 1. They play Dallas tough and the Cowboys did not click at all during the preseason.
• I don’t like Arizona’s defense for the season, but you have to like any D facing a rookie QB in his first start don’t you? Arizona plays St. Louis, where Sam Bradford could start. If he doesn’t start, it’ll be AJ Feeley, which isn’t much better.

Sit ‘em D/ST: New England Patriots (vs Cincinnati)

The Patriots are being drafted based on reputation, but that’s a mistake. This defense has looked terrible in the preseason and is devoid of the playmakers we’re used to. Mix in a Week 1 matchup against a rejuvenated Cincy offense and I think it’s a recipe for fantasy disaster.

New England Patriots D/ST Week 1 projection: 25 points or more, 1 forced turnover

Other Sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 1:

• I know that the Giants are supposed to be much improved on D this year, but I still want to see it before I buy it.
• I like Minnesota long-term this season, but not in Week 1 at the Saints. I just have a really bad feeling about this game for the Vikings.

Now, I’ve given you some of my picks. Tell me whether you agree or disagree, and ask me any and all lineup questions, in the comment section. I’ll do my best to respond as promptly as I can.

Good luck in Week 1 everybody!

Fantasy Football Black & White: Will Matt Forte go boom or bust in 2010?

[Editor's note: Welcome to the first installment of Fantasy Football Black & White, a weekly fantasy football debate between MSF's own Jerod Morris and Robert Littal from Black Sports Online. Each week, Jerod and Rob will figure out what they genuinely disagree on and then analyze it for you in simple black and white terms, 250 words or less. Then you get the final decision. Is it black...or is it white? Michael Jackson couldn't decide...can you?]

In today’s edition of Black & White, Rob and Jerod debate Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, who was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2009 season.

Many people drafted Forte in the top 5 after his terrific rookie season, but Forte could never seem to find a rhythm behind a struggling an offensive line and with a QB who had a penchant for red zone INTs.

What will 2010 hold for Forte?

Many are predicting a bounce back year, mainly because Mike Martz has been brought in as offensive coordinator. However, these positive predictions are muted by the memories of last year, as well as Forte’s career sub-4.0 yard per carry average.

Rob tells you why Forte will be a bust, while Jerod thinks Forte will follow in the long line of successful fantasy RBs under Martz.

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Black: Matt Forte will be a bust in 2010

I can already hear it: “Mike Martz is going to make Matt Forte into a Poor Man’s Marshall Faulk.”

It can be argued that Faulk in his prime was the greatest Fantasy Football Running Back of all time, so a poor man’s version of him is much better than any back going in the 3rd round of drafts.

Unfortunately it will never happen.

Matt Forte has a lot of similar skills to Marshall Faulk, but the Bears are nowhere near the teams Faulk was on with the Colts and Rams. Jay Cutler is no Manning or Warner. Devin Hester is no Harrison, Bruce or Holt.

But beyond all of that, the #1 reason gambling on Forte is a bad move? The Bears offensive line may be the worst in the NFL.

If you are Barry Sanders you could make it work, but a straight ahead, one cut runner like Forte will never have an opportunity to shine.

PS – Sources tell me (Stephen A-style) don’t be shocked if Chester Taylor is starting by mid-season.

White: Matt Forte will go boom in 2010

Quick, go here and look at the bulleted list about halfway down the page. Those are the reception numbers for running backs under Martz. Notice a trend? Mike Martz running backs get involved in the passing game. Period. End of story.

And lest you think that career backup Chester Taylor will be anything but a backup this year, remember that Forte already has 120 receptions in just two seasons, so it’s not like he needs to come off the field on passing downs.

And what about the Bears’ offensive line? Yes, it sucks. So? That’s not great for the Bears in real life, and it won’t make things easy on Matt Forte, but it doesn’t make him fantasy asbestos. The guy accounted for 1,700 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie despite a 3.9 yard average, so he can be a very productive #2 fantasy back even if he’s not wowing you with Chris Johnson-type success.

If Forte just reaches the averages of his two seasons so far, his 2010 numbers will be as follows:

• 1,083 rushing yards
• 6 rushing TDs
• 60 receptions
• 474 receiving yards
• 2 receiving TDs

Would you take 1,500 total yards and 8 TDs from your #2 back? I sure as heck would. And that’s a conservative projection.

Throw in the potential for Forte to catch some Mike Martz magic, and this is a player who will be a fantasy boom based on where you can land him in your drafts.

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