Each team has 52 games remaining on its schedule; third-place team Tampa Bay sits 1.5 games out with a record of 61-50.

Needless to say, the American League Wild Card is going to be a tight race down the stretch. However, the difference between the Rangers and the two East division teams is that the Rangers still have a chance at winning the division. Texas sits only 3.5 games behind the Angels while the Red Sox sit 6.5 games behind the Yanks with Tampa 8 games back.

So barring a collapse by the Yankees, the AL East race is all but over, especially after the beatdown the Bombers laid on the Nation this past weekend.

Baseball Prospectus has their postseason odds (updated today) right here. The Rangers currently have a 34.75% chance of making the playoffs according to the report, with all but 11% of that to winning the division.

The average number of wins listed on the report for the AL Wild Card is about 92. That means the Wild Card winner will have a record around 92-70. For what it’s worth, the report lists the average number of wins for the AL West winner at 93. In 2004, the last time the Rangers were relevant in the month of September, the Angels won the division with a 92-70 record.

So, for the sake of argument, let’s say that 92 wins will get the Rangers into the playoffs. What will that take?

30-22.

For the Rangers to win 92 games this year, they need to go eight games over .500 the rest of the way.

I’ve already linked to the full Rangers and Angels schedule here, but here’s a look at who’s left for the Wild Card teams:

Rangers (62-48):

6 @ Cleveland (3-0 vs. CLE in ’09)

3 vs. Boston (5-1)

7 vs. Minnesota (4 home, 3 away) (1-2)

6 vs. Tampa Bay (3 home, 3 away) (3-0)

3 @ New York (2-4)

4 vs. Toronto (2-4)

3 @ Baltimore (4-3)

6 vs. Seattle (3 home, 3 away) (9-4)

7 vs. Oakland (3 home, 4 away) (6-6)

7 vs. Los Angeles (3 home, 4 away) (9-3)

A pretty tough slate of teams right there, but not impossible. Toronto is very up and down, and Minnesota seems to be slipping. The A’s have been very pesky for the Rangers this year, so if they can win 5 of those 7, that would really help things. With the next ten against Cleveland, Boston and Minnesota, Texas has to find a way to win seven of those to get to 69-51 before the season-defining three city road trip.

Rays (61-50):

3 @ Los Angeles (2-1)

9 vs. Toronto (6 home, 3 away) (7-2)

11 vs. Baltimore (7 home, 4 away) (3-4)

6 vs. Texas (3 home, 3 away) (0-3)

7 vs. Detroit (3 home, 4 away) (0-0)

6 vs. Boston (3 home, 3 away) (8-4)

7 vs. New York (3 home, 4 away) (5-6)

2 vs. Seattle (2-4)

Another tough slate – made tougher because of all the games within the division, although 11 against Baltimore should help. Tampa has dominated Toronto this year even though Toronto’s really not that bad of a team. The Jays’ run differential indicates they should have a much better record than they should, but Tampa has owned them so far. Six against Boston and the Rangers will go a long way to determining where they end up though.

Red Sox (62-48):

4 vs. Detroit (3-0)

3 @ Texas (1-5)

9 vs. Toronto (6 home, 3 away) (5-4)

6 vs. New York (3 home, 3 away) (8-4)

8 vs. Chicago (4 home, 4 away) (0-0)

6 vs. Tampa Bay (3 home, 3 away) (4-8)

5 vs. Baltimore (2 home, 3 away) (11-2)

3 vs. Los Angeles (2-4)

4 @ Kansas City (3-1)

4 vs. Cleveland (3-2)

A lot of games against some tough opponents, including 6+ against four pretty solid teams in Toronto, Chicago, New York and Tampa. The Angels, Rangers and Tigers all remain for the Red Sox as well, so things are going to be tough for the Nation if they don’t pull out of their recent offensive funk.

(Ed. Note: This analysis was written before Monday’s games, in which Boston defeated Detroit 6-5 to take a .5 game lead in the WC race and Tampa fell to the Angels 8-7 to fall 2 games back. Seattle beat Chicago 6-4 to remain 4.5 games behind.)

2006 was the last year an AL West team won a playoff series (an Oakland sweep of the Minnesota Twins), and that malaise in the playoffs has seemed to carry over into most people’s opinion of the division. While the Angels are respected by the national media, I personally don’t think the rest of the division is seen as much of a threat to the big boys in the AL East (Boston, New York and Tampa Bay).

But after watching the Rangers bats be handcuffed by the top three Mariner pitchers and the Angels complete a puzzling sweep of the Bronx Bombers, I started thinking that the AL West might be one of the best divisions in baseball.

The National League doesn’t have many teams that scare me as an AL fan, so I don’t think their divisions are that much better. The teams that do scare me have shown it on the field (ground-breaking stuff, I know) and have posted the three best records in the league. Los Angeles, Philadelphia and San Francisco all are teams that I wouldn’t want my team to face at any point. (The Cards look to be the class of the Central and Colorado had a great June, but I don’t think either of those teams can touch the first 3.)

The only NL division that has teams that could come close to the AL West is the NL West, with the Dodgers, Giants and Rockies all fairly competitive. But Arizona and San Diego are two of the worst teams in the bigs, which hurts the NL West’s case just enough.

In the American League, the AL Central has one fairly solid team (Detroit), a couple of decent teams (Chicago and Minnesota), and two horrible teams (Kansas City and Cleveland). Detroit could challenge for any division, and I believe Chicago could too with the way they’re playing now, but Minnesota’s pitching has struggled this year, which wouldn’t play well in the other divisions. While I don’t think the AL Central is really all that bad, I don’t think it’s really all that good either. Fairly mediocre.

So that leaves the West and the East. Each division has three contending teams (Rangers, Angels and Mariners vs. Red Sox, Yankees and Rays) that each have their own unique strengths and weaknesses. Which one matches up better?

AL West:

Rangers: A young team with many flaws that has done well to hang in the race to this point. Have the Rangers overachieved this year? Yes, but that doesn’t make them bad. The Rangers seem to have four guys who can give them a chance to win every time they start a game (Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, and right now, Hunter). The offense has been average, but has been somewhat better with Josh Hamilton back in the lineup. (This past weekend’s series against Seattle was just that – one series – against some top-notch starting pitching. The fact that the Rangers were really not that far from sweeping this set is a testament to their own arms.) The Rangers have a good home record, play solid defense, and don’t seem to be fazed by a lot. A pretty decent team that hopefully will contend through September. 13-12 this year against the AL East.

Angels: Quite possibly the best run organization in the majors with one of the best managers in baseball. As a Rangers fan, I have no desire whatsoever to see the Angels do well, but what they’ve done this year is nothing short of remarkable. A disappointing recent record in the playoffs, but if they can find some way to beat the Red Sox in the playoffs, watch out. Pitching staff this year (especially the bullpen) has been suspect, although better since Memorial Day. Absolutely a contender, but it looks as if the Rangers have their number this year. Still, that might not end up mattering. 17-9 this year against the AL East.

Mariners: A spectacular revival just a year after one of the worst seasons in baseball history. (Only team ever to lose 100 games with a $100 million payroll.) A bonafide ace in the making in Felix Hernandez along with another high-quality pitcher in Bedard creates a 1-2 punch that no one wants to face. Jarrod Washburn is also having a season that makes the M’s one team no one wants to face. Great at home, good defense, but a below-average offense is the only way this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A team to really watch out for down the stretch because of their pitching. 12-9 this year against the AL East (no games against Toronto).

AL East:

Red Sox: The best record in the American League. Not much more needs to be said with them. Beckett and Lester are a great 1-2 combo, their offense is tough to get through (especially with David Ortiz’s improvement), and their bullpen is easily the best in the league. Definitely the favorite and the class of the division. 8-13 this year against the AL West. Whatever that means.

Yankees: On a roll of late, but that was stopped by their own roadblock – the Angels. A fantastic offense that has no trouble scoring runs, but a very mediocre pitching staff that is not what the team expected. Sabathia has not been the ace the Steinbrenners paid for, Chien-Ming Wang has been a disaster, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain have been average and the bullpen is nothing special. More proof that money can’t buy a championship. (Had to get that jab in there – the Yankees have really just been set back by the fact they’re 0-8 against Boston this year.) 10-7 this year against the AL West.

Rays: A team the sabermatricians and many in the media love, the Rays have really been a disappointment this year. (The bar was probably too high) A great offense and amazingly athletic team has the team owning the highest run differential in the majors, but not the best record. The pitching staff has not pitched up to expectations, but is still not bad. A team that might be there at the end, but needs to get it going soon.

While the AL East is probably the better division, I don’t think the difference is that great. Which means the Rangers will be playoff-ready if they can somehow sneak into October for only the fourth time in franchise history.

LOGOS:

Rangers: http://blog.kir.com/archives/cat_sports_astros_baseball.asp

Mariners: http://jakerake.wordpress.com/2009/04/24/wait-so-if-you-dont-swing-at-four-bad-pitches-you-get-to-run-the-bases/

Angels: http://blogs.ocweekly.com/navelgazing/your_los_angeles_angels_of_ana/