4 Reasons Jerome Harrison is Being Undervalued

Last year, Jerome Harrison entered fantasy football lore with one of the most unexpectedly productive final months we’ve ever seen. Over the season’s final three games, Harrison logged 286, 148, and 127 yards. He added five touchdowns for good measure.

More than a few playoff matchups were decided because of a player that few people (other than me, of course) had on their radar screen before the season began.

But as we get closer to the start of the 2010 season, I get the sense that people are becoming increasingly wary of Harrison. Much of this feeling comes from the fact that I’ve drafted Jerome Harrison in the 8th and 9th rounds in my last two drafts, and I feel he’s at least 2-3 rounds more valuable than that this year…with the potential to be even more valuable than that.

In this post, I’ll give you a few of the reasons why I am not nearly as worried about Jerome as so many others seem to be.

1. Harrison has always been productive when given a chance

As I mentioned last year, even dating back to his college days at Washington State the one constant about Jerome Harrison has been that he always produces when given consistent carries:

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5′9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16.

And when you look at his NFL career, the same holds true.

Just look at last season. In the four games in which the Browns gave Harrison 20+ carries, he was outstanding. Heading into 2010, Harrison is slated to have many more than four such games this year.

His career numbers, spread out over four seasons and 47 games, are: 271 carries, 1,310 yards, 6 TDs, 57 receptions, 402 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs. Take that as a stand-alone season and it’s top 10-15 RB material, which is exactly what I think Harrison has the potential to be this season.

Now, I don’t think he’ll grab 57 passes, so that projection is a bit much, but 250+ carries and 1200+ yards is not at all unreasonable, especially with the Browns’ being forced to focus on the run with INT-machine Jake Delhomme at QB and no standout WRs to speak of.

So you should trust that Harrison will produce if given carries. The question then becomes, is there someone on the Browns’ roster who could pilfer carries away from Harrison? Yes, but…

2. Montario Hardesty is very talented…but can’t stay healthy

The biggest knock on Harrison’s 2010 fantasy value has been the presence of Browns’ 2nd round draft choice Montario Hardesty. The rookie was very productive when healthy during his career at the University of Tennessee, with the key phrase there being when healthy.

Hardesty has already had multiple operations on his knee and only had one season at Tennessee in which he carried the ball more than 107 times. Much of that was due to the injury issues.

And guess what? Hardesty has already dealt with injury issues during the preseason and just got hurt again in the Browns’ most recent preseason game. While he may still prove to be a productive part of the Browns backfield in 2010, it is difficult, based on his history, to put much faith in Hardesty stealing consistent carries away from Harrison.

3. James Davis and Peyton Hillis are nothing special

As for 2009 rookie James Davis and Peyton Hillis, neither has shown the ability to be as productive an every down back as Harrison; and certainly neither possesses Harrison’s explosiveness or big play ability.

Hillis, however, will probably vulture some goalline TDs away from Harrison. That sucks, but it is what it is. Most of Harrison’s touchdowns come from outside the 5-10 yard lines anyway though, so this isn’t that big of a concern.

4. The Browns have a very underrated offensive line

No, the Browns’ offense was not very good last year, but it wasn’t the fault of the offensive line. Anchored by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas, the Browns consistently opened up holes for running backs and protected their quarterbacks. The problem? Ancient Jamal Lewis was too slow to hit the hole and neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson was able to play at a competent level with very, very little talent to throw to on the outside.

But, as mentioned above, Harrison proved that a productive running back with young, fresh legs can thrive behind the Browns’ current O-line. What he did over the last three weeks of the season showed that this unit can be a good run blocking line, and I expect that to continue into 2010.

Conclusion

Will Jerome Harrison produce like he did against Kansas City in Week 15 (286 yards, 3 TDs) every week? Of course not. In fact, expecting his Week 15-17 production extrapolated over a full season is foolish. The Browns played Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland, none of whom were especially strong against the run.

But, Jerome Harrison certainly has value as a #2 running back. You’re probably better off if you can pencil him as your #3 RB or flex player, but I think he finishes the season in the top 20.

To give you some comparisons: Harrison is more proven than Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, and CJ Spiller; he’ll get more opportunities than Marion Barber and Ricky Williams; and he’s less of an injury risk, based on his history, than Ronnie Brown or Joseph Addai (who is already dealing with a concussion). Yet, in most drafts, Harrison is going behind all of these guys. I’m not sure I’d do it in every situation, but a strong case could be made for taking Harrison about them all.

Certainly, Harrison is more valuable than the 8th-9th round where I’ve been getting him. Based on where he’s typically available, I’d start targeting Harrison in Round 7. And when you get him, either in that round or a round or two later, just know that you’re setting yourself up to get a guy who, based on his historical production and expected role, very well could produce Round 4-5 value.

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* – Jerome Harrison photo source: Fantasy Knuckleheads