Like I said before, it’s not that fun to draft Ichiro.  You know exactly what you’re getting.  (Or at least you used to know, before this season.) On the flip side, thinking about Jason Heyward’s upside gives us all visions of glory.

But when it comes to drafting running backs for your fantasy football team this year, save the “sleepers” for other positions.

Assuming you are in a 10 to 12 team league, or a fun weekly challenge game like FanDuel, and you have to start at least two running backs, it won’t be good enough to simply know which guys are in the top five.

Here are my top 25 running backs for 2011, along with some guys I think you should stay away from. The latter group is who we’ll start with.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: The “Stay-Aways”

• Mark Ingram – The Lockout will hinder rookies greatly this year.  The rookie running back slump continues, even though the kid has unreal talent.
• Joseph Addai – As a Colts fan, I think I speak for everyone else in Hoosier Country when I say, “You just can’t trust this guy.”
• All Other Colts’ Running Backs – If you need me to explain this one, you have probably never played fantasy football.
• Jonathan Stewart – Just a hunch, but I think the Panthers will try to justify spending a billion dollars on DeAngelo Williams…if only for this season.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Also a hunch, but I have a feeling that the Patriots are going to be high-flying, just like they were in their 18-1 season.  Expect a lot of passing, yards, and scoring…through the air.
• CJ Spiller – At this point, he’s destined to become a homeless man’s Devin Hester.  And in a league that no longer has kickoff returns, that isn’t a good thing.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – Eight steps beyond washed-up at this point.
• Daniel Thomas – See Ingram, Mark.
• Fred Jackson – I just don’t see the Bills leading a lot of games this year.  Their running game and Mr. Jackson will suffer.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #21-25

The boring guys who will win you games

• Marshawn Lynch
• Ryan Mathews
• Mike Tolbert
• Ahmad Bradshaw
• Shonn Greene

Ironically, these guys are all pretty similar.  Most of them like to pound it inside and eat up short yardage situations.  Expect all of them to be able to punch it into the end zone for you as well.

Of these five, Greene has the most upside since the Jets will likely be good, but Sanchez will still struggle, causing them to rely heavily on their defense and running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #16-20

Your “all or nothing” guys…that will win you weeks, and break your heart.

• Jahvid Best
• Felix Jones
• Knowshon Moreno
• Ryan Grant
• LeGarrette Blount

These guys are all on the same level to me. 

Best intrigues me the most because I feel that he has the most raw talent of the bunch…but as we are all well-aware, his injury history will scare many away.

I really think this could be Knowshon Moreno’s breakout year, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up as a top seven running back…though the QB situation will make his job that much more difficult.

Beware of Ryan Grant.  The Packers’ RB was injured for most of last season, and he will come back hungry, ready to show everyone that he is, in fact, very important to his team’s success.  Also, it’s probably a safe bet that Green Bay will be winning a lot of games this year, and Grant will be benefactor #1.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #11-15

It’s just not fun taking them, but you can’t let them slide past you.

• DeAngelo Williams
• Frank Gore
• Matt Forte
• Steven Jackson
• Peyton Hillis

None of these guys will earn you high praise on draft night, but they will all give you an easy 1000 yards, 8 TDs, and receptions out of the backfield.  Again, the lockout will affect a lot of young guys, players on new teams, and players with new coaches.

While Williams, Gore, and Hillis are all playing for new coaches, they will definitely be one of the foundational elements that their coaches are hoping to build upon.  Gore, Forte, and Jackson are about as “Ichiro-esque” as you can get.  Barring injury, expect solid numbers from them across the board.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #10

I have to place him this high, but I’m scared to death of him myself.

• Michael Turner

It’s possible he’s past his prime.  It’s possible that all of the carries the past few years have killed his legs.  It’s possible that Atlanta will become more of a passing team this year.  It’s also possible he has one more year left in him.

This is all I know.  Someone will draft Michael Turner in your league this year, and it will either make, or break his team.  I am scared to death of him, but I also know he could have one more good year left in him, and I understand he could very well come back to bite me.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #8-9

“Old Reliables” that may not be so reliable.

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Rashard Mendenhall.

If healthy, both Jones-Drew and Mendenhall will easily be top-ten RBs.  Both of their teams love to grind it out, and both guys can do the job.  However, Mendenhall has had fumble issues in the past, and just how long can a guy as small as Mo-Joe stay healthy?

If it were me, and I drafted either of these guys early, I would take his backup late in the draft – especially if I had Mo-Jo, because I think Rashard Jennings could really surprise some people this year, if given the opportunity.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #6-7

The new kids on the McBlock.

• Darren McFadden
• LeSean McCoy

These two guys have more “home-run” ability than anyone besides Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and maybe Adrian Peterson.

McCoy will be playing in a high-powered offense that has surprisingly less weapons than you thought.  Seriously, they have Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and…yeah you thought they had more, didn’t you?  Well, McCoy will surprise a lot of people this year that didn’t take notice before.  He is one of the smoothest runners in the game, and can also catch the ball out of the backfield.

McFadden, on the other hand, finally seemed to figure it out last year.  If he is finally putting the work in to match his unbelievable talent, the Raiders could have a top five fantasy player on their team, easily.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #4-5

Don’t be disappointed with these guys.

• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster

We have all been there.  We get the fourth pick in the draft, and we love three guys.  Obviously, those three guys go 1-2-3, and we are stuck fuming to ourselves for the next four picks.  On draft day, don’t be “disappointed” with Rice or Foster.

Sure, maybe the next three guys will have marginally better years, but the fact is that in most seasons the difference between guys 1-3 and 4-6 isn’t really that big.  Be happy with either of these guys, and then focus on building out the rest of your team.  Nobody has ever won a fantasy league with just one guy, but plenty have lost it by not concentrating for half of their draft.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #2-3

The enigmas

• Chris Johnson
• Jamaal Charles

I think these are the only two guys in the league that could rush for 2000 yards.  They could also both get injured or, in CJ’s case, randomly miss a lot of time because of contract issues.  Either way, if things go well, Charles and Johnson will make a LOT of fantasy owners happy with their home run ability coupled with their coach’s love for the running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #1

Old Faithful

• Adrian Peterson

In my opinion, he’s still the best in the biz.

Whether you are doing a head-to-head league with a snake-style draft, an auction-based keeper league, or one of the free weekly FanDuel challenges that Drew and I will doing this season, here is some strategy advice that will serve you well this season in the form of three rules to make sure you abide by during the 2011 season.

1. Follow expert advice – but only on players of whom you have no opinion.

People like fantasy sports for a variety of different reasons, but I honestly think the biggest one is the control factor.  As fans, we spend an almost appalling amount of time following something – sports – of which we have almost no control over.

Fantasy sports are different.

Maybe you are a Bengals fan, and you know your team is going to be dreadful this year.  That’s ok.  You can still draft your boy AJ Green, but on YOUR team, you have Peyton Manning throwing the passes.

We love to have control over a team, and every time one of our players does well, it gives us a little dose of pride to share with our friends.

Sometimes, however, our desire to win causes us to give up some of our control, and we start listening to the experts a little too much.  I’m sure all of us, at one time or another, has sat a guy we felt good about in order to follow the “expert’s advice”…and it ended up costing us.  (I won’t bother boring you with one of my fantasy heartbreak stories – which we all have and like to share even though nobody REALLY cares about them – but let’s just say I once needed Todd Heap to score ONE MEASLY point on a Monday Night game…and the experts said he was a lock for double digits…and he didn’t come through.)

Expert advice can be very valuable and helpful.  I mean, wouldn’t it be nice to not have a real job and get to follow fantasy sports for a living like these guys?  Of course it would.  But don’t let them talk you out of something that you think is true.

This year, the experts are saying that Arian Foster will score more points than Adrian Peterson.  I personally think that’s ridiculous.  Peterson will carry a large workload, and I actually think that Donovan McNabb will HELP him this year, considering Brett Favre’s corpse was manning the QB position last year.

If I have the first pick in the draft, I don’t care what the experts say; I’m taking Peterson (or even Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles for that matter) and laughing my way through the rest of the draft.  Why?  Because I have a strong opinion about it already.  If Foster really is the best player this year, the I can blame myself and admit to everyone I was wrong.  But I don’t think I’m wrong.

However, let’s say it’s late in the draft and I need a TE.  Gates, Clark, Davis, Witten, and Miller are off the board.  How much do I REALLY know about the current Tight End crop?  Should I try to get one of the Patriots’ young guys, even though they will cannibalize eachother all year?  Is Tony Gonzalez still a viable option?  Is Chris Cooley healthy?  Is Todd Heap alive?  Again, we don’t have the luxury of following this full time, so this situation is where the “experts” can really help us.

2. This year, the guy with the most boring team may very well win it all.

Let’s just call this the “Ichiro Syndrome.”

Every single year, fantasy baseball owners try to find the “next great outfielder.”  Ichiro, invariably, ends up falling through the cracks.  In one of my drafts this year, Jason Heyward went in front of him.  Why?  Because it’s exciting to draft Jason Heyward.  When you draft him, your buddies will give you a slap on the back, and tell you, “Nice pick.  Dude is gonna be a baller.” And they are right.  He WILL be a great player some day.

On the flip side, for the past five years you have known what you are getting when you draft Ichiro.  You can basically pencil him in to lead the league batting average and hits while contributing nicely in steals and a few other categories.  He won’t strikeout, and he won’t make errors.  But, quite frankly, it’s not that fun to draft him on draft day.

(Granted, Ichiro has finally started to show signs of age and wear & tear this year, but the “Ichiro Syndrome” has worked out for over half a decade, so bear with me; you know what I’m getting at.)

Be warned.  The lockout is going to affect things dramatically this year.

First of all, we can probably expect the rookies to have a below average year (for normal standards).  It’s already tough enough for most rookies to learn the playbook, win playing time, AND stay healthy.  This year, they lost four valuable months of knowledge, practice, and team exercise.

Unless you really think that Julio Jones is going to thrive as the 3rd or 4th option on the Falcons (not ruling this out…remember, only follow the experts in areas you have no clue about), it is probably safer to draft Wes Welker.  Will people rave about Welker when you draft him?  Of course not.  But he’s still Tom Brady’s favorite target, and if he’s healthy you know he’s a lock to catch 100 balls and get you good numbers in yards and TDs.

Another group of players that the lockout will definitely affect is the newcomers.  Will Sidney Rice, Kevin Kolb, and Braylon Edwards be good fantasy options in the future?  It’s definitely possible.  But they, like the rookies, have been handicapped severely by the lockout.

Even though Kolb will be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, how long will it take him to learn the offense?  And is he even good?  Again, it might be fun on draft day to take Kolb and tell your friends, “I got a steal!  This guy is going to bust out this year!”  But the guy that drafted Eli Manning behind you will be quite happy.  And he will probably end up beating you as well.

3. Nobody will remember if you finish second.

Let’s just be honest: when it comes to fantasy, there is the guy that finished in first place…and everybody else. I have played in I don’t know how many fantasy leagues over the years, but I can only distinctly remember three fantasy football teams I had. Obviously, they were my three teams that won it all. I know I have finished second before, and I know I have finished near the bottom before as well, but I couldn’t differentiate any of those seasons if you were holding a gun to my head.

While it’s true that the guy with the most boring team could win it all this year, don’t be afraid to take a couple of risks. It’s possible that Michael Vick could destroy your team this season. But he could also singlehandedly win it all as well.

In the end, our teams’ respective plights really comes down to one or two picks. If we hit a home run with them, we could very well be hoisting up the trophy at the end of the season.

At the end of the season, only one guy can win.  Trust me, it’s not fun AT ALL to finish second because you didn’t take enough risks.  When it comes to Fantasy Sports, it really is time to do what they say: “Go big, or go home.”

Clearly, the scorned dog on the left understands this.

Image source: Imgur via Reddit

Of course, three of these four dogs are not illustrating fantasy football rule #2: don’t reach for QBs early in Round 1. Unless their league settings count passing TDs for 8 points, I’d be more offended by Rodgers and Brady going with picks 1 and 3 than a dog looking past the Vick hate so obviously expected of him.

Now, upon first glance you might think that Adrian Peterson for Steven Jackson is a pretty fair deal. You might even think the guy getting Peterson is the big winner because AD typically scores more touchdowns.

But look closer. See the “SEA” next to Peterson’s name? That’s right folks: someone finagled Steven Jackson for the other Adrian Peterson. This one. The one who carried the ball zero times last year.

Obviously this is about as lopsided as fantasy trades get. So my question to all you fantasy football commissioners and players out there is this:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Personally, I say hell yes this trade should stand.

I commented on the Reddit post where I originally found this. Here is what I said:

If someone is dumb enough to accept a trade like this, let it stand. If you have the balls and gamesmanship skills to sluff off the crappy Adrian Peterson for a stud RB, you deserve it. You risk your reputation doing it, and may never be asked back into the league, but them’s the breaks. This is the kind of thing that makes fantasy football fun and is the kind of story friends rib eachother about decades later. LET IT STAND!

Besides, if it was a case of mistaken identity on the part of both parties, and they want to reverse it, they can always swap the players back. But frankly, I like as little commissioner intervention as possible in fantasy leagues. We’re big boys and girls. It’s fantasy sports. The consequences and stakes are looooow. Why protect the idiots at the expense of the savvy, cunning, Machiavellian players who are able to find advantages in the most unexpected of ways? That’s why we play fantasy sports.

Anyway, looking forward to hearing what the masses think. Personally, I tip my cap to the guy getting Steven Jackson. Well done sir. Orson Welles and I applaud you.

The top NFL picks in this year’s draft may have to wait before they can start working out with their new teammates, but the Dallas Cowboys veterans are scheduling a series of workouts to try and get some time in together while the lockout is still going on. Offensive and defensive veterans plan on meeting in undisclosed locations without the supervision of anyone from the Cowboys’ coaching staff. The Cowboys were fined by the NFL early in the lockout for allowing new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to work with his players at the Cowboys’ facility. This time, the players are meeting without the coaches and none of the players will indicate where or when the workouts will be taking place. The only thing anyone has said is that the players intend to start meeting in May.

The NFL draft is fast approaching, and the rumors surrounding how the Cowboys will use the ninth overall pick are swirling around. The notion that the Cowboys will take a quarterback has been all but dismissed by every member of the Cowboys staff, even though the team had been working out quarterbacks after the combine was over. The primary needs for the Cowboys are offensive line, defensive line and defensive safety. It looks like the Cowboys may be heading in the offensive line’s direction in the first round.

Highly-sought Florida offensive lineman Mike Pouncey could be the Cowboys’ first round pick. Pouncey is listed as a center, but he has shown the ability to play any position on the offensive line with equal ability. Pouncey, who’s brother plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers, has indicated that he would welcome a pick by the Cowboys and has gone on to insist that he will be a Cowboy when the 2011 season starts.

The chances that the Cowboys may take Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller in the ninth spot started to evaporate when Miller’s stock went up after the combine. The Cowboys further complicated their chances when they moved the date of their Dallas-Fort Worth pro days from April 15 to an earlier date. Miller was scheduled to work out for Dallas on April 15 and cannot make the new date. All of this seems to be pointing to Miller going before the number nine spot and the Cowboys not willing to trade up in the draft to get him.

The buzz from tight end Martellus Bennett’s statement that Jon Kitna should be allowed to compete for the starting quarterback job with Tony Romo will not die down. Bennett indicated that he enjoyed playing with Kitna and was impressed with the 38-year-old quarterback’s abilities. Neither Romo nor Kitna have responded to Bennett’s statement, but the starting job is expected to go to the healthy Tony Romo when the season starts.

As March Madness betting starts to reach its peak, Dez Bryant finds himself in the middle of controversy again, but this time it is off the field. The sportsbook promo experts have watched as the relationship between hall of famer Deion Sanders and Dez Bryant has broken down completely over an incident in a Dallas mall. Bryant was asked by mall security to adjust his pants so his underwear was not showing and Bryant went ballistic on the security guard. The incident caused Bryant to be banned from the mall and it caused Deion to publicly call Bryant a troublemaker.

To make matters worse, Bryant was recently named in two separate lawsuits that allege he owes almost $500,000 for jewelry and professional sporting event tickets. The betting services were a bit shocked to find out that a millionaire football player was being sued for not paying his bills, especially when everyone knows that Bryant has the money. The Cowboys are not issuing any statements on Bryant’s off the field problems, but Sanders has come out and said that Bryant needs to learn to stop being selfish and act like a professional athlete.

More details have started to surface about a story that was reported when the NFL lockout first occurred. Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys were fined for unauthorized contact with the players, and it should be a fine that Jones is happy to pay. What happened was that several defensive players decided to ignore the lockout and start working with new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. The fine came from the league when the league office learned that the players were working on the new defensive scheme with Ryan. Jerry Jones has not commented on the fine, but the dedication of his players and coaches should make him able to justify the payment.

The process for getting on the cover the Madden franchise of football video games has evolved into a one on one competition for the players. The Cowboys one entry into the competition was linebacker DeMarcus Ware. Ware squared off against Michael Vick to play the most recent version of the Madden video game to earn the right to move on to the next round. Ware lost to Vick and is out of the competition as Michael Vick moves closer to becoming the player on the cover of the new Madden NFL video game.

The Cowboys received a little help from the league when Dallas was awarded a seventh round draft pick in the compensatory lottery that was held last week. These are picks awarded to teams whose free agent losses were greater than their free agent gains. The Cowboys received one pick out of the 21 handed out.

Sports betting experts know that the Dallas Cowboys need help in the defensive secondary. As the 2011 March Madness betting approaches, the free agency signings continue and the Cowboys are missing out. Even though the sportsbook promo observers believe there is a good chance that the players will get locked out by the owners when the contract extension expires on Friday; that is not stopping the teams from signing free agents.

When free agency started, the betting services were curious to see how long it would take the Cowboys to sign a marquee safety or cornerback. So far Bob Sanders and O.J. Atogwe have both come and gone without so much as a sound from Valley Ranch. It could be that the Cowboys are waiting to see what the new collective bargaining agreement will look like before signing players. If that is the case, then the Cowboys will continue to miss out on opportunities. If the Cowboys are hoping to solve their secondary problem in the draft, then they are taking a huge risk.

The labor dispute has reached to all corners of the Cowboys’ organization. Despite the possibility that there could be no training camp and preseason, officials at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX are still preparing to host part of the Cowboys’ training camp this summer. All of the preparations for Cowboys training camp in San Antonio in July are being made, but if the players get locked out on Friday then the work will stop along with training camp preparations all over the NFL.

The players are starting to speak out about the current labor negotiations as well. Tight end and offensive team leader Jason Witten has said that he was hoping for some sort of miracle to prevent the March 4 lockout. When that small miracle happened, Witten says that it made him hopeful that the two sides will have an agreement in place before the next scheduled deadline of March 11.

Running back Tashard Choice is not being as forgiving as Witten. Choice used his Twitter account to send a message that he felt the owners were being greedy when it came to the most recent negotiations. None of the owners have commented on Choice’s message, but Choice posted a follow up message thanking the fans for their support throughout the difficult contract renewal period.

The Cowboys followed up on their promise to make sure that offensive lineman Doug Free stays in Dallas by placing a first and third-round tender offer on the 27-year-old veteran. That means that if any team wants to try and sign Free away from the Cowboys, they will have to give up a first and third-round pick. Other tender offers extended by the Cowboys include second-round tenders to defensive players Stephen Bowen and Jason Hatcher along with a seventh-round tender to safety Alan Ball. Free’s deal is worth $3.4 million, Bowen and Hatcher get $1.9 million and Ball’s deal is worth $1.2 million.

As the 2011 NHL trade deadline approaches, the deadline for Jerry Jones and the NFL to plead their case in court is also on the horizon. The 5dimes sports insiders have found out that there is a lawsuit starting among the 400 fans who were sold tickets for the game to seats that did not exist. Even  though the fans were refunded triple the face value of their tickets, they are still looking for more from Jones and the NFL. The average cost of the tickets were $800 each, and it isn’t just the ones left out of the game that are suing. Joining the shut out fans are fans that bought tickets for those last minute seats that they felt were inadequate. The fans suing because of inadequate seats are a clear case of piling on and probably stand no chance of winning anything. But the fans that bought tickets to phantom seats could be in for a head to head battle with Jerry Jones and the NFL.

The lack of a collective bargaining agreement could derail this year’s NFL draft, but if the draft goes off as scheduled then it will be interesting to see who the Cowboys take at number nine. Draft experts around the country are unable to come to a consensus as to what player, or even what position, the Cowboys would consider a priority in the first round.

The lack of protection for quarterbacks Tony Romo and Jon Kitna in 2010, along with the limited running game, would suggest that the Cowboys may be looking at an offensive lineman in the first round. Some candidates include Tyron Smith of Southern California and Anthony Castonzo of Boston College.

The Cowboys defense also has some huge holes left behind by the departure of key players such as Ken Hamlin. Dallas was never really able to put two quality cornerbacks on the field at one time, and that may cause a cornerback to be taken in the first round. Some possible selections would be Prince Amukamara of Nebraska and Patrick Peterson of LSU. Amukamara may not be on the board by the ninth pick, so if the Cowboys trade up in the draft it could be to get Amukamara.

What about the pass rush? The Cowboys could not get a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback all season long. Once you get past DeMarcus Ware, there are not a lot of options for defensive pressure. That could bring someone like Alabama’s Marcell Dareus to the Cowboys in the first round.

For a team that entered the preseason last year with a consensus Super Bowl contender, the Cowboys suddenly have a lot of holes in their roster. In 2010, the Cowboys refused to address their roster problems and preferred to smile and tow the company line. After missing the playoffs in 2010, the company line may be changing.

My favorites were the Al’s Chevrolet spot and the Miss Evelyn spot. Which spot did you like? Comment below.

In full disclosure, this post is part of a sponsorship campaign with Chevy/GM in coordination with Lijit Networks, Inc. for SuperBowl XLV. I received compensation for these posts, but the opinions expressed here are my own.