Fantasy Football 3-2-1: Five Names to Know As Bye Weeks Begin

Week 4 marks the first week affected by the bye weeks, with the Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, and Buccaneers all off this week. This means that a number of you are probably dealing with lineup crunches due to players not playing or being injured.

Have no fear, I’m here to help.

In this episode of Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I highlighted three players who could have big days in Week 4 and be solid fill-ins (Bruce Gradkowski, Peyton Hillis, and Aaron Hernandez) and also provide two names of guys who are not playing this week that I wouldn’t feel bad about dropping (Bernard Berrian, Felix Jones).

Finally, I offer my one piece of advice on whether RB depth or WR depth is more important moving forward.

Good luck this week everyone. And remember: if you have questions about your Week 4 rosters, go to this week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em and Q&A post:

http://fantasy.midwestsportsfans.com/2010/09/fantasy-football-week-4-start-sit-roster-advice-best-moss-ryan-hillis/

Other fantasy advice for Week 4:

• Week 4 Rankings
• Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets

It dawned on me that we need to start posting our waiver wire advice columns earlier in the week.

Most leagues have a 24-72 hour waiver period at the beginning of each week when no transactions can be finalized, giving everyone a chance to claim every player. If our waiver wire guidance column comes out after that time period, most of the good players are already claimed.

So this week we’re fixing that and now you can spend some time scouring the waiver wire while watching tonight’s Monday night game to see if there is anyone you want to claim.

The rules for appearing on this list are simple: the player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: QB

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (41%)

This guy has thrown 6 touchdown passes and no INTs in two straight divisional games. That absolutely must be respected, and Sanchez has become a solid backup in any format. If his strong play continues he’ll start pushing for top 12 status, but I’ll need to see more consistency to trust him.

Bruce Gradkowski, Oakland Raiders (5%)

I haven’t finalized my Week 4 rankings, but I bet Gradkowski ends up right around 12th or 13th. For a guy owned in only 5% of leagues, that’s pretty good. It means that if you own Tony Romo or Brett Favre, both of whom are on a bye this week, Gradkowski could be a great candidate to start for you.

Why? First off, he’s thrown a TD in each of his last two games. Secondly, he’s facing a Texans secondary that is giving up passing numbers to every QB it faces. With the rapport Gradkowski has with Louis Murphy and Zach Miller, plus the threat of Darren McFadden out of the backfield, this is as good a week as any to have the Oakland QB.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: RB

Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns (45%)

Yes, I would use a #1 waiver priority to pick up Hillis. He showed against the Ravens, in Baltimore, why the Browns coaches are so high on him. This guy will be the featured player in Cleveland’s offense for the foreseeable future and is my start ‘em running back for Week 4.

Kenneth Darby, St. Louis Rams (5%)

After Steven Jackson went down yesterday, Darby stepped in nicely and carried the ball for 49 yards and a touchdown. Obviously his value will be dependent upon Jackson’s injury status (MRI today), but Darby has some value as a flex option for Week 4 and any other weeks Jackson might miss. He won’t set the world on fire, but the Rams can move the ball a bit and provide scoring opportunities, meaning value for whoever is toting the rock.

Ryan Torain, Washington Redskins (1%)

Remember how we were touting Keiland Williams as the sleeper running back in Washington? Yeah, well not so much apparently. Ryan Torain is now the #2 man, and possibly even #1, after getting 46 yards on 7 carries in Week 3. Nominal #1 Clinton Portis carried 7 times also for 44 yards. Considering Portis’ general ineffectiveness this year, and how much he gets dinged up, Torain could be in line for a nice amount of carries moving forward.

Torain has a 5.2 yard per carry average in 22 career carries, so he’s had some success in his very limited action. You have to think that Mike Shanahan will get the running game going at some point. Perhaps Torain has the fresh legs to do it. I wouldn’t spend a top 3 or 4 waiver spot on him, but he’s certainly worth a look after that if you’re in need of RB help.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: WR

Joshua Cribbs, Cleveland Browns (31%)

The Browns appear to be more committed to getting the ball into Cribbs’ hands on offense this year. He and Hillis have become the focal points. Cribbs has 8 receptions for 130+ yards over the last two weeks and he also gets carries in the Wildcat. Plus, there is always the chance for an explosive return (unless Cribbs’ new offensive role diminishes his return ability like it has for Devin Hester, a real possibility). Cribbs appears to be a solid flex play right now, especially in PPR leagues or leagues that count return yards.

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys (30%)

It’s time to take notice of Roy Williams. One of the most disappointing receivers in all of football over the last few years has resurrected himself in 2010. Williams scored two TDs last week and should have three on the season (remember the last play of the Cowboys’ Week 1 game?).

Now, I wouldn’t get too crazy about a big day against the Texans – everyone is throwing on them this year – but Williams’ catch numbers have increased from 3 to 4 to 5 from Week 1 to Week 3 and Tony Romo clearly has more trust in him this season.

Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos (30%)

Lloyd makes me nervous because he’s been so inconsistent his whole career, but he now has two games already this season with 100+ receiving yards. Kyle Orton clearly trusts him and the Broncos clearly are going to throw, and throw often, in 2010. While Lloyd does have Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, and the rookie Thomas to compete with him for catches, he’s now won that competition in two of the first three weeks this year. Sometimes you have to trust what you see. If you need WR help, Lloyd has to be a guy on your radar screen right now.

Louis Murphy, Oakland Raiders (28%)

I mentioned him last week in this space…and he went out and caught 5 balls for 119 yards. He plays well with Bruce Gradkowski, and Oakland has the Texans on the schedule next. This is a guy to grab and start immediately.

Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (11%)

Moore hasn’t been relevant from a fantasy perspective for almost two years now, so I’m not going to go crazy after one game. He is also a Saints WR, which means that his production is going to vary from week to week. But he does have a 900+ yard, 10 TD season on his resume (2008) so the potential is there. I’m not losing a waiver spot for him, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: TE

Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (33%)

It’s possible that Jermaine Gresham is already the best receiver on the Cincinnati Bengals – and yes, that includes T.O. and Ochocinco. Gresham has 13 receptions on the season and Carson Palmer hasn’t even figured out how to consistently get the ball to him downfield yet (7.6 yards per catch). Gresham did average 14.8 yards on 4 catches in Week 3, so perhaps his breakout is coming soon.

Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots (32%)

Okay, I’m starting to become a believer now. 12 catches over the last two weeks has made me take notice. Tom Brady has always liked having a good tight end to throw to, and remember that Ben Watson was a top fantasy option there for a while. Hernandez is an especially strong play in Week 4 against a Dolphins D that gives up lots of yards to opposing TEs.

Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (19%)

Shaun Hill obviously likes this guy. Pettigrew has 13 catches over the last two weeks, which makes him PPR gold. His TD upside is limited because he’s a Lion, but Pettigrew is a solid bye week fill-in.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: Defense

Tennessee Titans (45%)

This defense couldn’t stop anyone through the air last year, but those problems seem to have been corrected so far in 2010. A major reason for their improvement is a pass rush that has generated 10 sacks.

Kansas City Chiefs (14%)

They destroyed the 49ers in Week 3 and look young, fast, and hungry. They also have Romeo Crennel back doing what he does best: coordinating a defense. Crennel was miscast as a head coach in Cleveland, but remember how good his defenses in New England were. I think the Chiefs have a very good chance of ending the season as a top 12 defense. They are pressuring QBs and have play makers. Take a look.

**********

* – Mark Sanchez image credit: Zuma Press via EveryJoe.com

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets

It dawned on me that we need to start posting our waiver wire advice columns earlier in the week.

Most leagues have a 24-72 hour waiver period at the beginning of each week when no transactions can be finalized, giving everyone a chance to claim every player. If our waiver wire guidance column comes out after that time period, most of the good players are already claimed.

So this week we’re fixing that and now you can spend some time scouring the waiver wire while watching tonight’s Monday night game to see if there is anyone you want to claim.

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

———-

The rules for appearing on this list are simple: the player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: QB

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (41%)

This guy has thrown 6 touchdown passes and no INTs in two straight divisional games. That absolutely must be respected, and Sanchez has become a solid backup in any format. If his strong play continues he’ll start pushing for top 12 status, but I’ll need to see more consistency to trust him.

Bruce Gradkowski, Oakland Raiders (5%)

I haven’t finalized my Week 4 rankings, but I bet Gradkowski ends up right around 12th or 13th. For a guy owned in only 5% of leagues, that’s pretty good. It means that if you own Tony Romo or Brett Favre, both of whom are on a bye this week, Gradkowski could be a great candidate to start for you.

Why? First off, he’s thrown a TD in each of his last two games. Secondly, he’s facing a Texans secondary that is giving up passing numbers to every QB it faces. With the rapport Gradkowski has with Louis Murphy and Zach Miller, plus the threat of Darren McFadden out of the backfield, this is as good a week as any to have the Oakland QB.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: RB

Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns (45%)

Yes, I would use a #1 waiver priority to pick up Hillis. He showed against the Ravens, in Baltimore, why the Browns coaches are so high on him. This guy will be the featured player in Cleveland’s offense for the foreseeable future and is my start ‘em running back for Week 4.

Kenneth Darby, St. Louis Rams (5%)

After Steven Jackson went down yesterday, Darby stepped in nicely and carried the ball for 49 yards and a touchdown. Obviously his value will be dependent upon Jackson’s injury status (MRI today), but Darby has some value as a flex option for Week 4 and any other weeks Jackson might miss. He won’t set the world on fire, but the Rams can move the ball a bit and provide scoring opportunities, meaning value for whoever is toting the rock.

Ryan Torain, Washington Redskins (1%)

Remember how we were touting Keiland Williams as the sleeper running back in Washington? Yeah, well not so much apparently. Ryan Torain is now the #2 man, and possibly even #1, after getting 46 yards on 7 carries in Week 3. Nominal #1 Clinton Portis carried 7 times also for 44 yards. Considering Portis’ general ineffectiveness this year, and how much he gets dinged up, Torain could be in line for a nice amount of carries moving forward.

Torain has a 5.2 yard per carry average in 22 career carries, so he’s had some success in his very limited action. You have to think that Mike Shanahan will get the running game going at some point. Perhaps Torain has the fresh legs to do it. I wouldn’t spend a top 3 or 4 waiver spot on him, but he’s certainly worth a look after that if you’re in need of RB help.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: WR

Joshua Cribbs, Cleveland Browns (31%)

The Browns appear to be more committed to getting the ball into Cribbs’ hands on offense this year. He and Hillis have become the focal points. Cribbs has 8 receptions for 130+ yards over the last two weeks and he also gets carries in the Wildcat. Plus, there is always the chance for an explosive return (unless Cribbs’ new offensive role diminishes his return ability like it has for Devin Hester, a real possibility). Cribbs appears to be a solid flex play right now, especially in PPR leagues or leagues that count return yards.

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys (30%)

It’s time to take notice of Roy Williams. One of the most disappointing receivers in all of football over the last few years has resurrected himself in 2010. Williams scored two TDs last week and should have three on the season (remember the last play of the Cowboys’ Week 1 game?).

Now, I wouldn’t get too crazy about a big day against the Texans – everyone is throwing on them this year – but Williams’ catch numbers have increased from 3 to 4 to 5 from Week 1 to Week 3 and Tony Romo clearly has more trust in him this season.

Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos (30%)

Lloyd makes me nervous because he’s been so inconsistent his whole career, but he now has two games already this season with 100+ receiving yards. Kyle Orton clearly trusts him and the Broncos clearly are going to throw, and throw often, in 2010. While Lloyd does have Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, and the rookie Thomas to compete with him for catches, he’s now won that competition in two of the first three weeks this year. Sometimes you have to trust what you see. If you need WR help, Lloyd has to be a guy on your radar screen right now.

Louis Murphy, Oakland Raiders (28%)

I mentioned him last week in this space…and he went out and caught 5 balls for 119 yards. He plays well with Bruce Gradkowski, and Oakland has the Texans on the schedule next. This is a guy to grab and start immediately.

Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (11%)

Moore hasn’t been relevant from a fantasy perspective for almost two years now, so I’m not going to go crazy after one game. He is also a Saints WR, which means that his production is going to vary from week to week. But he does have a 900+ yard, 10 TD season on his resume (2008) so the potential is there. I’m not losing a waiver spot for him, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: TE

Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (33%)

It’s possible that Jermaine Gresham is already the best receiver on the Cincinnati Bengals – and yes, that includes T.O. and Ochocinco. Gresham has 13 receptions on the season and Carson Palmer hasn’t even figured out how to consistently get the ball to him downfield yet (7.6 yards per catch). Gresham did average 14.8 yards on 4 catches in Week 3, so perhaps his breakout is coming soon.

Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots (32%)

Okay, I’m starting to become a believer now. 12 catches over the last two weeks has made me take notice. Tom Brady has always liked having a good tight end to throw to, and remember that Ben Watson was a top fantasy option there for a while. Hernandez is an especially strong play in Week 4 against a Dolphins D that gives up lots of yards to opposing TEs.

Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (19%)

Shaun Hill obviously likes this guy. Pettigrew has 13 catches over the last two weeks, which makes him PPR gold. His TD upside is limited because he’s a Lion, but Pettigrew is a solid bye week fill-in.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: Defense

Tennessee Titans (45%)

This defense couldn’t stop anyone through the air last year, but those problems seem to have been corrected so far in 2010. A major reason for their improvement is a pass rush that has generated 10 sacks.

Kansas City Chiefs (14%)

They destroyed the 49ers in Week 3 and look young, fast, and hungry. They also have Romeo Crennel back doing what he does best: coordinating a defense. Crennel was miscast as a head coach in Cleveland, but remember how good his defenses in New England were. I think the Chiefs have a very good chance of ending the season as a top 12 defense. They are pressuring QBs and have play makers. Take a look.

**********

* – Mark Sanchez image credit: Zuma Press via EveryJoe.com

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets

It dawned on me that we need to start posting our waiver wire advice columns earlier in the week.

Most leagues have a 24-72 hour waiver period at the beginning of each week when no transactions can be finalized, giving everyone a chance to claim every player. If our waiver wire guidance column comes out after that time period, most of the good players are already claimed.

So this week we’re fixing that and now you can spend some time scouring the waiver wire while watching tonight’s Monday night game to see if there is anyone you want to claim.

The rules for appearing on this list are simple: the player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: QB

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (41%)

This guy has thrown 6 touchdown passes and no INTs in two straight divisional games. That absolutely must be respected, and Sanchez has become a solid backup in any format. If his strong play continues he’ll start pushing for top 12 status, but I’ll need to see more consistency to trust him.

Bruce Gradkowski, Oakland Raiders (5%)

I haven’t finalized my Week 4 rankings, but I bet Gradkowski ends up right around 12th or 13th. For a guy owned in only 5% of leagues, that’s pretty good. It means that if you own Tony Romo or Brett Favre, both of whom are on a bye this week, Gradkowski could be a great candidate to start for you.

Why? First off, he’s thrown a TD in each of his last two games. Secondly, he’s facing a Texans secondary that is giving up passing numbers to every QB it faces. With the rapport Gradkowski has with Louis Murphy and Zach Miller, plus the threat of Darren McFadden out of the backfield, this is as good a week as any to have the Oakland QB.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: RB

Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns (45%)

Yes, I would use a #1 waiver priority to pick up Hillis. He showed against the Ravens, in Baltimore, why the Browns coaches are so high on him. This guy will be the featured player in Cleveland’s offense for the foreseeable future and is my start ‘em running back for Week 4.

Kenneth Darby, St. Louis Rams (5%)

After Steven Jackson went down yesterday, Darby stepped in nicely and carried the ball for 49 yards and a touchdown. Obviously his value will be dependent upon Jackson’s injury status (MRI today), but Darby has some value as a flex option for Week 4 and any other weeks Jackson might miss. He won’t set the world on fire, but the Rams can move the ball a bit and provide scoring opportunities, meaning value for whoever is toting the rock.

Ryan Torain, Washington Redskins (1%)

Remember how we were touting Keiland Williams as the sleeper running back in Washington? Yeah, well not so much apparently. Ryan Torain is now the #2 man, and possibly even #1, after getting 46 yards on 7 carries in Week 3. Nominal #1 Clinton Portis carried 7 times also for 44 yards. Considering Portis’ general ineffectiveness this year, and how much he gets dinged up, Torain could be in line for a nice amount of carries moving forward.

Torain has a 5.2 yard per carry average in 22 career carries, so he’s had some success in his very limited action. You have to think that Mike Shanahan will get the running game going at some point. Perhaps Torain has the fresh legs to do it. I wouldn’t spend a top 3 or 4 waiver spot on him, but he’s certainly worth a look after that if you’re in need of RB help.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: WR

Joshua Cribbs, Cleveland Browns (31%)

The Browns appear to be more committed to getting the ball into Cribbs’ hands on offense this year. He and Hillis have become the focal points. Cribbs has 8 receptions for 130+ yards over the last two weeks and he also gets carries in the Wildcat. Plus, there is always the chance for an explosive return (unless Cribbs’ new offensive role diminishes his return ability like it has for Devin Hester, a real possibility). Cribbs appears to be a solid flex play right now, especially in PPR leagues or leagues that count return yards.

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys (30%)

It’s time to take notice of Roy Williams. One of the most disappointing receivers in all of football over the last few years has resurrected himself in 2010. Williams scored two TDs last week and should have three on the season (remember the last play of the Cowboys’ Week 1 game?).

Now, I wouldn’t get too crazy about a big day against the Texans – everyone is throwing on them this year – but Williams’ catch numbers have increased from 3 to 4 to 5 from Week 1 to Week 3 and Tony Romo clearly has more trust in him this season.

Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos (30%)

Lloyd makes me nervous because he’s been so inconsistent his whole career, but he now has two games already this season with 100+ receiving yards. Kyle Orton clearly trusts him and the Broncos clearly are going to throw, and throw often, in 2010. While Lloyd does have Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, and the rookie Thomas to compete with him for catches, he’s now won that competition in two of the first three weeks this year. Sometimes you have to trust what you see. If you need WR help, Lloyd has to be a guy on your radar screen right now.

Louis Murphy, Oakland Raiders (28%)

I mentioned him last week in this space…and he went out and caught 5 balls for 119 yards. He plays well with Bruce Gradkowski, and Oakland has the Texans on the schedule next. This is a guy to grab and start immediately.

Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (11%)

Moore hasn’t been relevant from a fantasy perspective for almost two years now, so I’m not going to go crazy after one game. He is also a Saints WR, which means that his production is going to vary from week to week. But he does have a 900+ yard, 10 TD season on his resume (2008) so the potential is there. I’m not losing a waiver spot for him, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: TE

Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (33%)

It’s possible that Jermaine Gresham is already the best receiver on the Cincinnati Bengals – and yes, that includes T.O. and Ochocinco. Gresham has 13 receptions on the season and Carson Palmer hasn’t even figured out how to consistently get the ball to him downfield yet (7.6 yards per catch). Gresham did average 14.8 yards on 4 catches in Week 3, so perhaps his breakout is coming soon.

Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots (32%)

Okay, I’m starting to become a believer now. 12 catches over the last two weeks has made me take notice. Tom Brady has always liked having a good tight end to throw to, and remember that Ben Watson was a top fantasy option there for a while. Hernandez is an especially strong play in Week 4 against a Dolphins D that gives up lots of yards to opposing TEs.

Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (19%)

Shaun Hill obviously likes this guy. Pettigrew has 13 catches over the last two weeks, which makes him PPR gold. His TD upside is limited because he’s a Lion, but Pettigrew is a solid bye week fill-in.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: Defense

Tennessee Titans (45%)

This defense couldn’t stop anyone through the air last year, but those problems seem to have been corrected so far in 2010. A major reason for their improvement is a pass rush that has generated 10 sacks.

Kansas City Chiefs (14%)

They destroyed the 49ers in Week 3 and look young, fast, and hungry. They also have Romeo Crennel back doing what he does best: coordinating a defense. Crennel was miscast as a head coach in Cleveland, but remember how good his defenses in New England were. I think the Chiefs have a very good chance of ending the season as a top 12 defense. They are pressuring QBs and have play makers. Take a look.

**********

* – Mark Sanchez image credit: Zuma Press via EveryJoe.com

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start, Sit Roster Advice and Q&A

Well, Week 3 was a lot like Week 1.

My top-line start ‘em, sit ‘em picks didn’t fare so well, but my secondary picks and Q&A recommendations were mostly solid.

Let’s hope this bad week followed by good week trend continues with the top-line choices in Week 4. I have a lot of making up to do to Joe Flacco and Mike Wallace owners…

Here is the carnage:

• Start ‘em hits: Tony Romo, Dustin Keller
• Start ‘em misses: Dez Bryant (so close on this one!), New England
• Sit ‘em hits: Kellen Winslow
• Sit ‘em misses: Joe Flacco, All Dallas RBs (Barber had a solid day), Mike Wallace (HUGE miss), Philly D

(Note: I recommended Knowshon Moreno but he injured his hamstring and was inactive for Sunday.)

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

———-

Now onto the Week 4 picks.

Remember that the Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, and Buccaneers all have their byes in Week 4.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Picks

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, ATL (vs SF)

It’s time to start taking Matt Ryan seriously as a #1 fantasy QB. Here are his stats the last two weeks:

• Week 2: 225 yards, 3 TDs (vs Arizona)
• Week 3: 228 yards, 2 TDs (vs New Orleans)

In Week 4, Ryan has a nice matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, a team that supposedly had a good defense. Well, after being torched by Matt Hasselbeck (2 TDs) in Week 1 and then by Drew Brees in Week 2 (2 TDs), Matt Cassel threw 3 TDs in Week 3. Keep in mind, Cassel had been terrible coming into this game.

The 49ers may play well because at 0-3 their backs will be against the wall, but Ryan is proving that he, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez are one of the most potent QB-WR-TE trios in the NFL. It’s time to start getting him in your lineup regularly.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 4 projection: 230 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 4:

• Tom Brady has another seemingly tough matchup against the Dolphins. After throwing multiple TDs versus the Jets and Bills, two very good pass defenses, it’s time to understand that Brady never comes out of your lineup.
• The Eagles’ D in 2010 is not what we’ve come to expect. I think Donovan McNabb will have a nice day in his return to Philly.
• The New York Giants are not very good right now, especially on defense. Jay Cutler should be able to take advantage.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em QB: Carson Palmer, CIN (at Cleveland)

You may have seen Joe Flacco light up the Cleveland Browns and think that Carson Palmer might be a good option against them in Week 4. If you think this, I disagree with you.

It’s not that the Browns are great against the pass, they aren’t. They’re just okay. Truth be told, Anquan Boldin simply outplayed Eric Wright and Joe Flacco found him. I don’t think the Browns were quite as bad as the numbers indicate; just that one matchup was.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have a terrible passing attack and will likely start trending more and more towards the run. Look at Carson Palmer’s numbers the last two weeks:

• Week 2: 167 yards, 0 TDs (v Baltimore)
• Week 3: 195 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs (v Carolina)

That is putrid. And keep in mind, the Panthers had been giving up multiple TD passes to everyone. And the one passing TD was to Cedric Benson out of the backfield. Where are OchoCinco and T.O.?

If it weren’t for some garbage time yards in Week 1 when the Patriots game was already decided, Palmer’s numbers would look even worse than they do. This guy is basically Trent Dilfer now. If he couldn’t do anything against Carolina, who do you trust him against?

Carson Palmer fantasy football Week 4 projection: 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 4:

• Eli Manning struggled to get the ball to his receivers in Week 3 against a Tennessee pass defense that is nothing special. I like him still this season, but a matchup with the Bears may not be ideal.
• Joe Flacco finally got in sync with Anquan Boldin in Week 3. Unfortunately, the Ravens now face the Steelers. Anyone else foresee a 9-6 game?
• There are a bunch of other QBs like Alex Smith and David Garrard that you should sit, but do you need me to tell you that?

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, CLE (vs Cincinnati)

How can you not take notice of Peyton Hillis after what he did in Week 3? Against the always stout Ravens’ run defense, Hillis rumbled for 144 yards and a TD on 22 carries. He also added 36 yards on 7 receptions.

Yes, these were the type of numbers we were expecting from Jerome Harrison. And yes, this is me publicly eating crow for being so high on Harrison before the season and during Weeks 1 and 2. But stubbornness gets you nowhere in fantasy football. I watched a lot of the Browns-Ravens game and Hillis was the second-best player on the field (after Anquan Boldin).

One of the reasons so many people were high on Harrison is that the Browns have a solid O-Line and will be able to run on people this year. Cincinnati is very good against the pass, but did give up a decent YPC average in Week 3. With no passing game to speak of, Cleveland will keep riding Hillis.

Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 4 projection: 105 yards rushing, TD, 5 receptions, 30 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 4:

• Too many people are too worried about Michael Turner. Folks, when he is healthy, you start him. San Francisco is supposed to have a good run defense, but I haven’t really seen it yet. Turner should have a strong day.
• I know that you’re getting very worried about DeAngelo Williams right now…but this is not the week to sit him. New Orleans gives up rushing yards and lots of fantasy points to opposing runners. If I hadn’t already typed out the Hillis recommendation above, I would switch it to DAW. Keep him in your lineups.
• Ahmad Bradshaw keeps on producing. The fumbles and brain farts won’t help, but the Giants have no one else and Bradshaw, based on his production, is inching into top-20 RB territory.
• Well, Darren McFadden just keeps producing. So keep starting him.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em RB: Jahvid Best, DET (at Green Bay)

The Packers play the run well, which makes this a tough matchup for Best. Add to that the fact that he struggled against a good run D in Week 3, plus had to leave the game with an injury, and it equals a less than optimal week for Best owners.

Don’t be completely blinded by the five TDs he has so far this season. He scored two on goalline carries in Week 1, then exploded in Week 2 against an Eagles defense that has not been great this year. He’s been good, don’t get me wrong…but probably not quite as good as his numbers suggest.

Exercise caution with Best this season and remember that he is just a rookie, and this may be one of those weeks when you go with an alternative.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 4 projection: 55 yards, 0 TDs, 3 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 4:

• Until further notice, Jerome Harrison has to be on your bench. Hillis is going to be the guy, at least for now, in Cleveland.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis stepped up for New England this week after Fred Taylor got hurt. Once again, let me reiterate: stay away from the New England backfield. It’s just too much of a crapshoot.
• Consider Ray Rice’s automatic position in your lineup this week. You know that I say always play your stars, but this might an exception. Pittsburgh’s run D is ferocious and Rice has yet to get into the endzone this year. He also had to leave the Week 3 game early, so he could be a bit dinged up. Don’t sit him unless you have some really good alternatives. If you are so blessed, it’s something to think about about.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em WR: Santana Moss, WAS (at Philadelphia)

Santana Moss is entering must-start territory now that he and Donovan McNabb have found some rhythm together. Moss had 16 catches coming into Week 2 and was one of the most targeted WRs in the league. In Week 3, he continued to be a favorite of Donovan McNabb and finally got into the endzone.

This week, the Redskins head into Philadelphia, which marks the return of Donovan McNabb to his old city. I have a feeling McNabb is going to want to throw a few of his patented deep balls and remind the Eagles what they are missing. Those deep balls will likely go to Moss. I’ll never guarantee a TD for anyone…but I feel really strongly that Moss gets into the endzone at least once this week.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 4 projection: 6 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 4:

• Kevin Walter got into the endzone again. That’s three weeks in a row. You have to respect that.
• Too many people are asking me about Steve Smith of the Giants. I play him every week. He hasn’t gotten into the endzone this year, but he had 9 catches for 103 yards last week. He’s Eli Manning’s favorite target.
• Jeremy Maclin scored again this week..twice. Michael Vick keeps looking to him. You know DeSean Jackson is a must-start, but it’s time that Maclin got some respect too. This is a solid top 30 WR.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em WR: Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh, BAL (at Pittsburgh)

How much do I dislike these two this week and moving forward? Let me count the ways…

• First off there is the matchup. Baltimore plays Pittsburgh, which means that scoring opportunities will be limited.
• Secondly, there is the lack of production so far this year. Mason scored in Week 2, but otherwise neither of these two has done much of anything yet this year.
• Thirdly, there is the emergence of Anquan Boldin in Week 3. He caught 3 TDs, a couple of which Flacco just launched blindly in his direction. I think Flacco continues going to to Boldin.
• Fourth, there is the fact that Ray Rice and Todd Heap are above Mason and Housh in the Baltimore offensive pecking order.

Add all of this up…and you have a couple of guys that I’d sit on a regular basis.

Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh fantasy football Week 4 projection (combined): 6 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 4:

• All 49ers WRs. This team absolutely cannot pass the ball. Stay away. Stay far away.
• It’s safe to stick a fork in Bernard Berrian. He only had two catches against Detroit, which was supposed to be his breakout game. H
• Strongly consider sitting Steve Smith (CAR) in Week 4 if you have good alternatives. The Panthers have a better matchup in Week 4 for their passing game (New Orleans) but it’s pretty clear that Jimmy Clausen is going struggle…a lot. That hurts everyone on the Carolina offense.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em TE: Vernon Davis, SF (at Altanta)

I already know that the Vernon Davis questions are coming this week, so I figured I’d issue this preemptive strike: start him.

Davis only had 3 catches in Week 3, and didn’t get into the endzone, but he had 12 catches in the two weeks prior and at least 70 receiving yards in both games. Unfortunately, the 49ers offense is just struggling right now and not offering Davis the same number of red zone opportunities that he got last year en route to 13 TD catches. While no one expected that number to be repeated, no one thinks he’ll only catch 2 (his amount in ’08) either.

The Falcons gave up 70+ yards and a TD to Jeremy Shockey in Week 3. With the 49ers desperate for a win, they’ll have to feed their best receiver. I think Davis steps it up and has his first big week of 2010.

Vernon Davis fantasy football Week 4 projection: 7 catches, 95 yards, TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 4:

• Zach Miller caught a TD in Week 3 and faces a Houston defense that will give up a lot through the air. He’s a solid start this week.
• Aaron Hernandez led the Patriots in catches and yards in Week 3 (6, 65). He plays a Miami defense that will give up some fantasy points to opposing TEs.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em TE: Todd Heap, BAL (at Pittsburgh)

Todd Heap has just four catches against the Steelers over the past two seasons. Granted, two of those went for touchdowns in one game last season, but I consider that more of a fluke. The overall lack of production is the trend.

Heap is having a nice bounce back year so far in 2010, but I don’t see Baltimore having many scoring opportunities against Pittsburgh. Plus, with Troy Polamalu roaming around out there, Heap might have one or two catches taken away by big hits.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week 4 projection: 3 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 4:

• Owen Daniels still isn’t quite back to his must-start self. I still say resist the urge to start him until he starts catching 5-6 passes again.
• Michael Vick clearly doesn’t have the same rapport with Brent Celek that Kevin Kolb did. Celek is not a must-start anymore, though I wouldn’t drop him.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘em D/ST: Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland)

Much was made of the Bengals’ wide receiving corps in the offseason, but the defense is clearly the dominant unit on this team. Perhaps if the Bengals start running the ball more, the offense can catch up.

While there won’t be as many fumbles in Week 4 as there were against rookie Jimmy Clausen in Week 3, the Browns remain a one-dimensional offense. As long as the Bengals contain Peyton Hillis, they should have, at worst, a decent day.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 4 projection: 14 or less points, 2 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 4:

• The Falcons are playing the 49ers. Right now, I shouldn’t need to say anything more.
• The Saints are playing the Panthers. Again, right now, I shouldn’t need to say anything more.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Sit ‘em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (vs New England)

I like the Dolphins defense this year, but the Patriots are putting up points against everyone. If the Jets and Bills couldn’t contain Tom Brady and the passing attack (at least from a fantasy perspective), then I doubt the Dolphins will either.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Week 4 projection: 20 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 4:

• I think the Giants-Bears game will be high scoring. I would prefer not have either starting for me.
• The 49ers defense was supposed to be good this year. It’s not. Sit them. It’s probably okay to drop them at this point.

As always, the comment section awaits your questions. We’ll have the rankings and sleepers posted later this week, plus our regular live chats. Good luck everyone!

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* – Matt Ryan photo credit: Phil Skinner via Atlanta Journal Constituion

Fantasy Football Talk Podcast – Week 3

It’s Thursday, so you know what that means: time for another episode of Fantasy Football Talk.

MSF senior fantasy writer Kurt Fraschetti joined me yesterday as he always does and we tackled a smorgasbord of fantasy topics.

And if you listened to last week’s episode, you can probably guess what led off this week’s show. Here’s a hint: it involves the Philadelphia Eagles and some major gloating by Kurt.

Listen here:

• You can also listen to the MSF Podcast on iTunes and subscribe to future episodes.
• Podcast Intro & Outro Song: “Dax McCarthy’s Magic Elixer’” by The Twin Cats (Indianapolis)

Once you’re done listening, or while you’re listening, make sure to head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to check out all of our Week 3 insight, analysis, and advice:

• Week 3 Rankings
• Week 3 Start/Sit and Q&A
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

A more detailed breakdown of the topics we talk about:

• Kurt gloats about his successful prediction that Michael Vick would dominate against Detroit and then take over the starting QB gig full-time for Philly.
• Jerod and Kurt analyze the effect that Jimmy Clausen will have on the Carolina offense.
• Kurt thinks the loss of Reggie Bush won’t hurt the Saints much, if at all.
• Jerod and Kurt provide two names from the waiver wire that you absolutely need to know right now.
• Tony Romo’s struggles are discussed, but also why he is a must start this week.
• Jerod explains why everyone should be grabbing Kevin Walter right about now.
• The guys discuss who is more likely to rebound and make the playoffs between the Cowboys and the Vikings.
• And finally, Jerod answers the question everyone in Cleveland wants to know: who will have more fantasy value between Peyton Hillis and Adrian Peterson.
• Plus more.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleeper Picks

In case you’re a bit dissatisfied with one or more of your starters at a particular position, and trolling the waiver wire in search of a guy who could be a Week 3 boon, this post is for you.

I’ll provide a few names at each position that are owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues who might be able to provide more of an immediate impact than someone else on your roster.

Important note: Just because I list someone here doesn’t necessarily mean you should drop your struggling starter. You may have a superstar who is just starting slow (Ray Rice owners, I’m talking to you), or even just a solid guy who hasn’t hit his stride yet. Everything is relative. If you have a specific question, pose it in the comment section.

And don’t forget to check out our Week 3 player rankings and this week’s Start/Sit column.

(Players are listed with Yahoo ownership percentage, then our Week 3 rank in parentheses.)

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers at QB

David Garrard (32%, 16th) vs Philadelphia

I know that Garrard stunk to high heavens last week, but that’s Garrard. He plays well at home and then can be awful the next week. The Jags host the Eagles this week, a defense that has given up tons of yards and points to Aaron Rodgers and then to Lions last week. You’re in trouble if Garrard is your weekly starter, but there are plenty of worse guys you could have in there this week.

Sam Bradford (25%, 18th) vs Washington

I broke down Bradford’s stats yesterday and how they compare favorably to Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman through two games. Looking at Week 3, perhaps Bradford’s numbers can compare favorably to what Matt Schaub did against the Redskins last week. Obviously Bradford won’t be that good, but the Redskins are giving up lots of yards through the air and the Rams are letting Bradford throw. He’ll probably toss a few picks but might also be able to fit a TD or two, plus a lot of yards, in there as well.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers at RB

Peyton Hillis (30%, 34th) at Baltimore

The Ravens have bottled up Jerome Harrison pretty good in the past, and Harrison did a pretty good job of bottling himself up last Sunday against the Chiefs. And while Harrison has yet to reach the end zone, Hillis has done it twice while also tacking on 7 receptions through two games. Facing the Ravens D limits the upside for either Browns running back, but Hillis is always a threat to pilfer a TD here or there.

Marshawn Lynch (19%, 32nd) at New England

How often do you see a guy who got 17 carries in Week 2 owned in only 19% of leagues? I imagine that number will rise once the waiver periods expire this week, and Lynch should have some value this weekend against the Patriots, a team that is just so-so against the run. It will be interesting to see how the Bills divvy up touches between Lynch, Fred Jackson, and CJ Spiller, but Marshawn got the most last week. Seeing as how they are trying to showcase him for a trade, and the Bills have no passing game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 15-20 more touches this weekend too.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers at WR

Kevin Walter (40%, 24th) vs Dallas

I know this guy’s owned percentage will go up after he turned in another terrific performance in Week 2. Right now, Walter is the #2 guy in Houston over Jacoby Jones. Matt Schaub loves him and Walter is a guy who has proven himself to have a nose for the end zone in the past. With an expected shootout looming this weekend against the Cowboys, I expect another strong performance from Walter.

Mike Williams (TB) (39%, 35th) vs Pittsburgh

You know I don’t like rookie WRs, and I have plenty of misgivings about Mike Williams, a guy who dropped on draft day because of character concerns; but…he’s caught two TDs in two weeks and the Bucs are facing the Steelers this weekend. Pittsburgh will shut down the run and force Josh Freeman to throw the ball. With Williams appearing like his go-to target right now, he could have a decent day and possibly even put up another score. And they are at home, which usually helps rookies feel more comfortable.

Louis Murphy (9%, 45th) at Arizona

Murphy performed well when Bruce Gradkowski replaced Jason Campbell, hauling in a second half touchdown and finishing the day with 6 catches for 91 yards. He also had 4 catches in Week 1 and has always turned a decent percentage of his catches into TDs. Oakland plays a porous Arizona defense this week. If Gradkowski starts again, and even if he doesn’t, Murphy is a deep sleeper who could help out WR-starved teams.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers at TE

Dustin Keller (48%, 4th) at Miami

No need to belabor this one. Sanchez loves Keller and he had a great Week 2. He’s a solid long-term option and will be owned in more than 50% of leagues once the waiver term expires.

Jermaine Gresham (38%, 18th) at Carolina

This guy is already one of the most talented tight ends in football. He just needs experience and some time to build rapport with Carson Palmer. Six catches in two games proves the Bengals will give him opportunities, and at some point he’ll take them and (literally) run with them. It wouldn’t surprise me to see that be this week against Carolina.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers at Defense

Cincinnati Bengals (38%, 2nd) at Carolina

The Bengals absolutely should be owned in more leagues, especially this week. They face Carolina’s sputtering offense that will continue to sputter with rookie Jimmy Clausen under center. Remember, the Bengals were very good on defense last year and play in a division with three offenses that have done nothing this year. Grab them if they are available.

Monday Morning Vent: The Jerome Harrison Hate in Cleveland Continues

Last season, the Cleveland Browns were a terrible football team through the first 12 weeks of the season. They lost 11 of their first 12 games, barely could muster any semblance of a competent offense, had their GM quit mid-season, and had the editors of Webster’s Dictionary considering using the Browns team picture next to the word destitute.

Then Jerome Harrison happened.

After the Browns squeezed out a 13-6 win over Pittsburgh that no one thought was possible, the Browns turned the running game over to Harrison for the season’s final three weeks. He responded by running for 286, 148, and 127 yards, plus five scores, leading the Browns to three more victories and deciding many a late season fantasy matchup.

Thus, Harrison was a popular #2/#3 RB choice in fantasy drafts this season, especially once talented rookie Montario Hardesty went down with a season ending knee injury during the preseason. It was expected that Peyton Hillis would take some carries away from Harrison, but how could the Browns not feed Jerome the rock consistently after he (and the O-Line) basically saved everyone’s jobs last season?

Well, they didn’t feed him in Week 1, in a matchup with Tampa Bay and its woeful run D, which represented one of Harrison’s best chances for fantasy stardom in 2010.

Despite a sputtering passing game that featured one big play TD from Jake Delhomme to Mohammed Massaqoui then little else, the Browns gave their most talented and productive offensive player just 10 touches: 9 carries for 52 yards (including a 39 yarder) plus 1 catch for 9 yards. Harrison didn’t even get the lone rushing TD; that went to Hillis, who had a solid day turning his 9 carries into 41 yards while also grabbing 4 catches for 24.

Hillis, however, also had a costly fumble in the 3rd quarter. Harrison, who fumbled only twice last year, but who apparently drew the ire of the coaching staff for coughing up a few in the preseason, did not fumble.

In the Browns infinite wisdom, they decided to let INT machine Jake Delhomme throw the ball 37 times in rainy, sloppy weather. He was predictably Delhommeian, throwing two picks and amassing an Anderson-esque 59.2 QB rating.

Regular readers of MSF know that I’ve been on a personal crusade to get Harrison more touches for over two years now. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the guy just produces. Go through his career game log and tell me what happens every time he gets 15 or more touches. I’ll end the suspense: he produces. In 280 career carries, Harrison averages 4.9 per. He has 1,361 career yards and 6 rushing TDs for his career, which would be a solid year from a #2 fantasy RB. That’s the potential that Harrison has if his coaches would just stop hating him.

Sadly, Week 1 gave us little hope that the Browns’ Harrison Hate will end.

Jerome Harrison Week 2 forecast: If you own Jerome Harrison, don’t jump off the ledge yet. Week 2 represents what should be another big day for Harrison…assuming Mangini and Daboll remember what he did last year against the Browns’ Week 2 opponent: Kansas City.

In Week 15 last year, Harrison had one of the best days by a running back ever when he scampered for 286 yards and 3 TDs on 34 carries in Arrowhead Stadium. I expect the Browns to wise up and feature Harrison more, if for no other reason than to try to recapture that 2009 magic. We’ll have a better idea tonight when Kansas City hosts San Diego if the Chiefs’ run D is improved at all.

Jerome Harrison Season forecast: If Cleveland doesn’t feel compelled to let Harrison reprise his role as Chief Killer next week, then I will throw my hands up and simply offer my pity to Harrison. This guy has earned 15-20 touches a game until he proves he can’t handle it. Jake Delhomme has proven he can’t handle 37 pass attempts, yet there he was bumbling around in rainy Tampa handing the Bucs a victory.

I think we all have to take a wait-and-see with Harrison right now, especially with Kansas City next up on the schedule. His usage next week will be a clear sign of what kind of value to expect moving forward.

What’s your Monday morning vent? The comment section is yours to vent about whatever pissed you off, shocked you, or simply left you shaking your head after another Sunday of NFL action.

4 Reasons Jerome Harrison is Being Undervalued

Last year, Jerome Harrison entered fantasy football lore with one of the most unexpectedly productive final months we’ve ever seen. Over the season’s final three games, Harrison logged 286, 148, and 127 yards. He added five touchdowns for good measure.

More than a few playoff matchups were decided because of a player that few people (other than me, of course) had on their radar screen before the season began.

But as we get closer to the start of the 2010 season, I get the sense that people are becoming increasingly wary of Harrison. Much of this feeling comes from the fact that I’ve drafted Jerome Harrison in the 8th and 9th rounds in my last two drafts, and I feel he’s at least 2-3 rounds more valuable than that this year…with the potential to be even more valuable than that.

In this post, I’ll give you a few of the reasons why I am not nearly as worried about Jerome as so many others seem to be.

1. Harrison has always been productive when given a chance

As I mentioned last year, even dating back to his college days at Washington State the one constant about Jerome Harrison has been that he always produces when given consistent carries:

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5′9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16.

And when you look at his NFL career, the same holds true.

Just look at last season. In the four games in which the Browns gave Harrison 20+ carries, he was outstanding. Heading into 2010, Harrison is slated to have many more than four such games this year.

His career numbers, spread out over four seasons and 47 games, are: 271 carries, 1,310 yards, 6 TDs, 57 receptions, 402 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs. Take that as a stand-alone season and it’s top 10-15 RB material, which is exactly what I think Harrison has the potential to be this season.

Now, I don’t think he’ll grab 57 passes, so that projection is a bit much, but 250+ carries and 1200+ yards is not at all unreasonable, especially with the Browns’ being forced to focus on the run with INT-machine Jake Delhomme at QB and no standout WRs to speak of.

So you should trust that Harrison will produce if given carries. The question then becomes, is there someone on the Browns’ roster who could pilfer carries away from Harrison? Yes, but…

2. Montario Hardesty is very talented…but can’t stay healthy

The biggest knock on Harrison’s 2010 fantasy value has been the presence of Browns’ 2nd round draft choice Montario Hardesty. The rookie was very productive when healthy during his career at the University of Tennessee, with the key phrase there being when healthy.

Hardesty has already had multiple operations on his knee and only had one season at Tennessee in which he carried the ball more than 107 times. Much of that was due to the injury issues.

And guess what? Hardesty has already dealt with injury issues during the preseason and just got hurt again in the Browns’ most recent preseason game. While he may still prove to be a productive part of the Browns backfield in 2010, it is difficult, based on his history, to put much faith in Hardesty stealing consistent carries away from Harrison.

3. James Davis and Peyton Hillis are nothing special

As for 2009 rookie James Davis and Peyton Hillis, neither has shown the ability to be as productive an every down back as Harrison; and certainly neither possesses Harrison’s explosiveness or big play ability.

Hillis, however, will probably vulture some goalline TDs away from Harrison. That sucks, but it is what it is. Most of Harrison’s touchdowns come from outside the 5-10 yard lines anyway though, so this isn’t that big of a concern.

4. The Browns have a very underrated offensive line

No, the Browns’ offense was not very good last year, but it wasn’t the fault of the offensive line. Anchored by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas, the Browns consistently opened up holes for running backs and protected their quarterbacks. The problem? Ancient Jamal Lewis was too slow to hit the hole and neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson was able to play at a competent level with very, very little talent to throw to on the outside.

But, as mentioned above, Harrison proved that a productive running back with young, fresh legs can thrive behind the Browns’ current O-line. What he did over the last three weeks of the season showed that this unit can be a good run blocking line, and I expect that to continue into 2010.

Conclusion

Will Jerome Harrison produce like he did against Kansas City in Week 15 (286 yards, 3 TDs) every week? Of course not. In fact, expecting his Week 15-17 production extrapolated over a full season is foolish. The Browns played Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland, none of whom were especially strong against the run.

But, Jerome Harrison certainly has value as a #2 running back. You’re probably better off if you can pencil him as your #3 RB or flex player, but I think he finishes the season in the top 20.

To give you some comparisons: Harrison is more proven than Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, and CJ Spiller; he’ll get more opportunities than Marion Barber and Ricky Williams; and he’s less of an injury risk, based on his history, than Ronnie Brown or Joseph Addai (who is already dealing with a concussion). Yet, in most drafts, Harrison is going behind all of these guys. I’m not sure I’d do it in every situation, but a strong case could be made for taking Harrison about them all.

Certainly, Harrison is more valuable than the 8th-9th round where I’ve been getting him. Based on where he’s typically available, I’d start targeting Harrison in Round 7. And when you get him, either in that round or a round or two later, just know that you’re setting yourself up to get a guy who, based on his historical production and expected role, very well could produce Round 4-5 value.

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* – Jerome Harrison photo source: Fantasy Knuckleheads

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