Fantasy Football QB Rankings for 2011: Top 15 plus the “Stay Aways”

Well running backs, it was a good run (no pun intended).  For over ten years, you have been fantasy football gold.  The old cliche was that when draft night came, it was best to draft running backs early and often.

However, with the arrival of platoons in the backfield, a greater emphasis on passing, and unbelievable rule adjustments that make it practically impossible to defend the pass, running backs just aren’t as valuable as they once were.

In fact, one could easily make the case that there are several players of other positions who are more valuable than even the top running backs.  This has never been more the case than it is this year at the Quarterback position.

But which quarterbacks should you be targeting in your drafts or when the free weekly FanDuel beat-the-expert contest starts?  And which ones should you stay away from?

Just like I did earlier this week in ranking the running backs, here are my top 15 fantasy QBs for 2011, as well as my suggestions for who you should stay away from.

Fantasy Football QB Rankings: The “Stay Aways”

Mark Sanchez

The pretty boy is probably the most over-rated player in all of sports besides Ryan Howard.  Don’t believe me?  Check out his third down numbers and his Red Zone numbers. I mean really, the guy is an insult to other QBs who have been labeled “game managers.”  He might prove me wrong this year…but I doubt it.

Joe Flacco

Joe’s the classic guy that’s “better in real life than he is in fantasy”…only he’s not even that good in real life.

Matt Cassel

The former Brady understudy has loads of potential but will be saddled by his coach’s conservative philosophy, and when you can hand it off to Jamaal Charles, that’s not a bad philosophy.

Kyle Orton

There’s just way too much going on in Denver for anyone to succeed, let alone a guy named Kyle Orton.

Cam Newton

Repeat after me: “Just…say…no.”

Kevin Kolb

He might be a good guy to pick up and stash on the bench.  Besides rookies, Kolb might be affected by the lockout more than any other player.  Six weeks in though, Kolb could very well be an enticing option, especially considering the fact that he gets to throw the ball to the best WR in the game.

Just don’t expect greatness from him early on, as he will be adjusting to a new team, a new climate (don’t discount this), and a new playbook.

Fantasy Football QB Rankings: The Top 15

15. Matthew Stafford

To be honest, if you think Stafford is in your top fifteen, he might as well be in your top ten.  He might have the strongest arm in the NFL, he plays indoors, and oh yeah, he gets to throw to a guy named Calvin Johnson every game. Year three is often a coming out party of sorts for young quarterbacks, and if anyone is capable of making the leap, it’s Stafford.

Obviously though, there’s the whole injury thing.  That’s the only reason he slides to #15 on my board.  Unless you have a really good feeling about him, I would probably lay off of him until he slides past #12; but after that, he would represent great value…especially if he finally stays healthy.

14. Josh Freeman

I think that Freeman is going to have a good year and that he may end up being the next Ben Roethlisberger.  If that does happen, Tampa Bay fans should be thrilled.  However, fantasy owners should remain wary.

Freeman didn’t have a single 300-yard game last year, and even though he has some talented receivers, the Bucs will probably rely a lot on the running game yet again in 2011.

13. Sam Bradford

In 2012, Bradford could possibly be in the top five.  To me, though, he’s still a year away from becoming a fantasy superstar.  Pounce on him if he slides past #10, but don’t take him before too many of these other guys.

12. Matt Ryan

Probably the greatest “better in real life than fantasy” player I have ever seen.  I don’t know if that’s a compliment, or an insult, but either way, be careful with Ryan when it comes to drafting your team.

On the one hand, if Julio Jones is a star the Falcons could possibly have the best 1-2 punch at WR in the entire NFL.  On the other hand, Michael Turner gets tons of looks in the red zone, and Tony Gonzalez is no longer the TD-threat he once was.

At the end of the day, how you feel about Ryan probably has a lot to do with how you feel about Julio Jones.  If you love the Alabama wide-out, you should probably take Ryan in the top seven.  If not, he’s probably a stay away until later rounds.

11. Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger won’t kill you by any means, but he probably won’t single-handedly win any weeks for you either.  If Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt, Big Ben might shoulder a little more of the load.  If not, the Steelers will remain what they have always been – a team that kills you with defense, a running game, and staggeringly boring consistency.

10. Eli Manning

I think Manning will have a great year this year.  Hakeem Nicks is one of the best WRs in the league, and even though Steve Smith is off to Philadelphia, Mario Manningham emerged last year as a consistent #2 threat.  Add to that the fact that their running game is not what it once was, and that they will probably play at least four high scoring games against Philadelphia and Dallas, among others, and the elements are there for another strong statistical season for Peyton’s brother.

Eli will not be an exciting pick, but he’s good to throw for at least 4,000 yards and around 30 TDs.  If he drops his rather flukey INT total from last year, you will be looking at a top 8 QB, easily.

9. Matt Schaub

Two words:  Andre Johnson.

8. Jay Cutler

Don’t laugh.  He’s in year two of the Mike Martz era, and he actually has a few more options to throw the ball to this year.  If the Bears can keep him off the turf (52 sacks last year), Cutler should throw for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs like he did as a rookie.

7. Tony Romo

I don’t really know what to say about Romo.  I think he’s an incredibly overrated QB in real life, but for one reason or another he always puts up great numbers in fantasy land.  To me, he’s the classic guy that you pick, take your ribbing from the other guys for drafting him, and then rub it in as much as possible when he’s the reason for you beating them in week eight.

6. Michael Vick

Let’s just say I’m not drinking the Vick Kool-aid.  Many of you probably completely disagree with me, so I will just present three stone-cold facts with no emotion that you can’t argue with:

• He is a lock to miss games at some point this year.  This is a given.
• He has looked terrible in preseason so far.  Admittedly, it’s a small sample-size, but admit it: it has you worried at least a little bit.  The QB position is a tricky one – you can never stop working at it.  Vick has unlimited potential, and last season he really put in the work that was necessary to succeed.  But he has a track record of being over-confident in the past.  If he has taken an extended amount of time off this off-season, he could definitely have a regression in 2011.
• He played awful down the stretch last year.  Over his final four games (including the playoffs) last season, he only finished with 7 TDs and 5 INTs.  He also failed to break 300 yards once.  It’s possible that he was playing injured.  It’s possible that the other teams started to figure out.  It’s possible that’s he’s just not as good as we thought.  If any of those statements are true, you should stay away from Vick as the #1 guy.

All of that said, if he plays to his potential, he could single-handedly win your league.  If you have a great feeling about him, you might pick him first overall.  If you don’t, I would suggest that you stay away.

5. Peyton Manning

His neck absolutely does present a scary issue, and he could very well get off to a slow start.  But don’t worry.  Just be patient.  If he plays 16 games and doesn’t finish the year with 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, you can email this article to me every day for the rest of my life.

4. Aaron Rodgers

I’m high on A-Rodg this year, but not as high as everyone else.  I think the Packers will be playing a LOT more games from ahead this year, and Ryan Grant is back to anchor the running game.  Remember: even with the high scoring games and lack of a running game last year, Rodgers didn’t throw for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs.

I definitely think that 2011 will be the year when we all officially cast him into the “best QB in the game” role, but I don’t think his fantasy numbers will be as good as the next three guys.

3. Drew Brees

Put it this way: he passed for over 4,600 yards and 33 TDs last year…and people were disappointed.  You could easily make the case that he should be #1.

2. Tom Brady

Remember 2007 when the Pats were coming off a disappointing season and Belichek and Brady appeared to be mad at the world as they ran up the score in every games and broke all sorts of passing records?  Well, I have a feeling that it’s about to happen again. I mean, good grief, they have been running up scores in the PRE-SEASON.

Brady also has great weapons again.  His tight ends are among the best in the game, Wes Welker is back, and the newly acquired Chad Ochocinco will help out more than you think, especially in the end zone.

Add it all up, and I think Brady could have a frighteningly good season, as if last year’s 36-4 TD to INT ratio wasn’t good enough.

1. Philip Rivers

Quite frankly, he’s the best fantasy QB there is.

Last year, he threw for 4,700 yards and 30 TDs…WITHOUT his #1 threat on the outside.  He also throws the best deep ball in the game, and if your league has any sort of “big play bonus” Rivers is a lock to lead that category this season.

Rivers may not be the best pure QB in the game, and he may be a huge jerk that’s no fun to have on your team, but if he’s your fantasy QB in 2011, you will learn to love him, and may end up having to send him a letter of appreciation when he wins you your league.

Jon Washburn @The_Dr_Twitch

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start / Sit Picks

Well, as I explained in this week’s waiver wire sleeper picks post, I needed another Monday night miracle to make the playoffs in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. Barring something truly miraculous over the next hour, my season will end at the hands of Team Gunaxin.

Regardless, it has been a great experience, highlighted by the trip to New York and the draft in the NFL boardroom. That was a truly memorable experience that I’ll remember forever, and I cannot thank P&G and the NFL enough for making it reality. I would have loved to be able to enjoy this year’s Super Bowl live from Jerry World as well; but alas, it was not meant to be.

Luckily I am in many more leagues than just that one and actually had three byes this week. So fear not, dear reader! Just because my season has come to a screeching halt in the P&G league, I still have leagues with friends and family that I must win for essential bragging rights and pride. Thus, I will still be working just as hard as always to analyze the players, trends, matchups, and injuries to help myself out in my other leagues and to help you out in yours.

Let’s start analyzing.

Before we delve into the Week 15 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 14 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 14 top-line picks, which we pretty solid – a nice rebound effort after my poor Week 13:

• Start em hits: Knowshon Moreno; Vernon Davis; Atlanta Falcons
• Start em misses: Jay Cutler (damn me for trusting him);
• Sit em hits: Matt Cassel (obviously this is kind of cheap, but I said it on Sunday night, more than a week before we knew he was out!); Marshawn Lynch; Titans WRs (no TDs); Tennessee Titans
• Sit em misses:

Still to play: Anquan Boldin, Joel Dreesen

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

***San Francisco and San Diego play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (at Seattle)

I don’t think this one is very tough.

The Seattle Seahawks are among the generous defenses in the NFL to opposing QBs. As anyone who watched Alex Smith – Alex Smith! – torch the Seahawks this past weekend knows, even a poor passing game can put up big numbers against Seattle. Matt Ryan and the Falcons do not exactly have an explosive passing offense, but it is solid and steady, and it will be able to take advantage of the gaping holes in the Seattle secondary.

Matt Ryan has 22 TD passes and 8 INTs on the season. He has thrown at least one TD pass in every game but one this year and has thrown at least two in three out of his last four games. Roddy White is healthy, Tony Gonzalez is still a threat, and Michael Turner is keeping defenses honest. Ryan will rarely wow you with Brady-like fantasy explosions, but there is something to be said for a guaranteed 14-18 points come playoff time. Ryan will give you that this Sunday, with the potential for more.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 15 projection: 245 passing yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 15:

• Jon Kitna isn’t flashy. In fact, he’s kind of like a poor man’s Matt Ryan in terms of his fantasy value. He’s capable of a big week every now and then, but almost always provides 10 or more points. With a solid matchup against Washington, Kitna is worth a look.
• In case you had lingering doubts about Peyton Manning, he’s facing Jacksonville this week. Start him…and stop worrying.
• David Garrard is having his best season as a pro. As I wrote in this week’s waiver wire sleeper picks article, he doesn’t have a prolific history against Indianapolis, but the Colts’ D has struggled some lately and Garrard is finally a consistent fantasy producer. In a two-QB league, he’s a very good #2 option.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Sit ‘em QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (v NYJ)

There are a few reasons why I’m not big on this matchup. First off, I watched the Jets play this weekend, and while their offense was beyond awful the defense played pretty well. Granted, it’s not hard to look good when you’re facing Chad Henne, but they still completely shut down an NFL passing game. And we know that Revis Island is still, in fact, and island.

Secondly, Big Ben and the Steelers’ passing game is really struggling. In fact, Ben has just one TD pass (along with one INT) over his last three games. Not only is the O-Line having trouble protecting him, but Ben looks a bit out of sorts even when he has time to throw.

If you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs. Do you really want to trust a struggling QB against Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie with your season on the line? Let Ben surprise you with a big game, just don’t start him and have to count on it.

Ben Roethlisberger fantasy football Week 15 projections: 240 yards passing, 0 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 15:

• Two weeks in a row I told you to start Jay Cutler. He was decent in Week 13 and terrible in Week 14. Granted, weather played a factor last week, but it doesn’t change the fact that recommending Jay Cutler went against my fantasy principles. Notice how every time I do that it leads to failure? I need to start trusting my damn self. You have my apologies.
• Wow Kyle Orton. Just…wow. No TDs and 3 INTs against an Arizona team that even Troy Smith lit up. There is no excuse. With rumors now circulating that Tim Tebow could start getting more time, it’s time to stop counting on Orton.
• Don’t get unnecessarily excited about Jason Campbell. Darren McFadden did most of the work on one of those two TD passes, and, well…it’s Jason Campbell. Plus, Denver’s pass D has been better over the last couple of weeks.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘em WR: Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (v Jacksonville)

I was high on Garcon last week, placing him in my top 20 despite the overrated struggles of Peyton Manning. Pierre responded by hauling 6 passes for 93 yards and two TDs. He now has at least five catches and 56 yards in each of his last four games, and he has caught at least one TD in consecutive ball games. Clearly he and Manning had found some of the rhythm they lacked earlier in the season, and a big part of it seems to be Garcon just focusing better.

So regardless of the matchup, Garcon would be a must-start this week. Fortunately for Garcon owners, the matchup is a thing of beauty. The Jags give up tons of fantasy points to opposing WRs, and there will be plenty to go around for both Garcon and Reggie Wayne. Both players absolutely have to be in fantasy lineups this week.

Pierre Garcon fantasy football Week 15 projections: 6 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 15:

• You saw what Desean Jackson did to the Cowboys last week, right? Well Santana Moss was Desean Jackson before Desean Jackson was Desean Jackson. He’s a Cowboy killer and is coming off a nice Week 14. He’s a solid play this week.
• Way too many people asked me about Malcom Floyd last week. Why in the world would you ever sit Philip Rivers’ #1 WR, especially with Antonio Gates out? Floyd is a must-start this week, and I may just end up warming up to Vincent F’ing Jackson too. We’ll see on that one.
• If you’re desperate for a third WR, I like Earl Bennett as a guy who has proven he’ll give you something. He’s not flashy, but he’s been productive over the last three weeks as Jay Cutler’s top, most reliable target.

—————

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see our sit ‘em WRs for Week 15, as well as our start ‘em, sit ‘em projections at RB, TE, and Defense.

Commenting is turned off here. Ask your Week 15 questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

**********

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Dallas Round-Up – Cowboys Prepare For Colts, Mavs Are On Fire, Stars Rolling Too

Dallas Round-Up – Cowboys Prepare For Colts, Mavs Are On Fire, Stars Rolling Too

College football betting players don’t have much to worry about in the Dallas area, but two of the professional teams are lighting up the league, while the major story in the city are getting ready to face another tough opponent, this time on the road.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys battled hard in a 30-27 loss at home to New Orleans on Thanksgiving Thursday, snapping a two-game winning streak under Jason Garrett. The offense put up 457 yards, but had three turnovers, and a Roy Williams fumble in New Orleans’ territory gave the Saints a chance to score a late touchdown, while David Buehler narrowly missed a 59-yard field goal that would have tied the game. The Cowboys now move onto Indianapolis as 5-point football betting underdogs, but the Colts are struggling, particularly Peyton Manning, and the Cowboys should see this as a chance to build more momentum for next year.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the league as they carry a seven-game winning streak into Utah on Friday night, and this is intriguing because both teams have won seven in a row heading into this contest, so something obviously has to give. The Mavericks started last week with a nine-point win in San Antonio on Friday, which ended a 12-game winning streak for the Spurs, then beat the underachieving Miami Heat at home on Saturday night. The Mavericks then beat Houston at home by 10 on Monday, then by 14 points over Minnesota on Wednesday, and they’re coming together better than a lot of people thought.  After the Utah showdown on Friday, the Mavericks head to Sacramento on Saturday, then back home for Golden State on Tuesday.

Dallas Stars

If you checked out the NHL sports news and were surprised to find the Stars on top of the Pacific Division, you weren’t alone, but neither is Dallas: as of Thursday, they were tied with Phoenix and Anaheim on 29 points, while Los Angeles and San Jose are only three points back. The Stars had won four in a row ahead of Thursday’s visit from Washington, winning at Ottawa, followed by back-to-back victories over St. Louis, then another road win at Carolina. The Stars allowed four goals in those four games, and that will always give you a good chance to win. After the Washington game, the Stars host Minnesota on Saturday night, followed by road games at Columbus and Chicago. Even moreso than the Mavericks, no one expected the Stars to be this competitive in the Pacific Division, which is loaded with talent, but if they keep this up, it’ll be more difficult to ignore their NHL betting odds in your online sportsbook.

Week 13: Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

At the beginning of the season the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys were heralded as Super Bowl Contenders, but as the season winds down the teams are both looking pretty bad. The Cowboys playoff ship sailed away without the team on board long ago, the best the Boys can do is 8 – 8 – 0, and that is if they win every game left in the season. However the Cowboys are 2 – 1 – 0 under Jason Garrett and Tony Romo could come back before the seasons end.

The Colts have been decimated by injuries all season on both Offense and Defense. It has finally got to the point where Peyton Manning can’t cover up the teams weaknesses on offense anymore. At 6 – 5 – 0 Indianapolis is tied with Jacksonville atop the AFC South division, the Colts still have a realistic chance of making the playoffs if they can get things on track again.

Prediction Cowboys at Colts
Even though the game is in Indianapolis, the Cowboys will win by a narrow margin. Peyton Manning looked flustered last week and the Colts defense will be exploited if Peyton and the Colts offense can’t eat up the clock. Look for Cowboys RB Tashard Choice to have increased carries if Marion Barber can’t go on Sunday. You can find the Kickoff TIme, TV Time, TV Channel and TV Announcers below:

Week 13 Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts | TV Announcers – Channel – Kickoff Time

Cowboys – Colts Day / Date: Sunday – December 5 2010
Cowboys – Colts Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
Cowboys – Colts Kickoff: 3:20 PM Central Time
Cowboys – Colts TV Time: 3:15 PM Central Time
Cowboys – Colts TV Channel: FOX
Cowboys – Colts TV Announcers: Joe Buck & Troy Aikman

As always you can find the rest of the NFL Week 13 Game Time and TV Channel information in the Midwest Sports Fans week 13 viewer guide (Click Below):
Week 13 TV Schedule & Announcer Assignments

Tuesday Funny: Peyton & Jerry on the Streets

At the beginning of the season I thought that the Cowboys vs Colts game would have playoff implications.

Tuesday Funny: Manning Brothers DumbFace

You can’t deny that both Peyton and Eli Manning suffer from dumb face, and at kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com they decided to celebrate this fact with a compilation of Manning brother dumb face photos in their post:

• Double Manning Face All The Way Across The Sky

If you aren’t sure what the title of the post is referring to, check out the video below and make sure to check out the rest of the Gregory Brothers funny videos from their Auto Tune the News Channel on YouTube.

Read more

Peyton Manning Wins NFL MVP Award

Peyton Manning was named the 2008 NFL MVP in a landslide vote. Manning helped the Colts overcome a number of injury problems, including a knee injury to Manning himself, to make the playoffs.

This is Manning’s third NFL MVP win. He also won the award in 2003, when he was named MVP alongside Steve McNair, and in 2004, when Manning was named the sole MVP.

The AP MVP voting is conducted through nationwide balloting of 50 sportswriters and journalists. Manning easily won the award with 32 votes. The next closest candidates were Chad Pennington of the Miami Dolphins and Michael Turner of the Atlanta Falcons.

With his third MVP win, Peyton Manning is now tied with Brett Favre for the most NFL MVP wins. Favre, now with the Jets, won 3 times with the Green Bay Packers, Favre won in 1995 and 1996, and was named co-MVP with Barry Sanders in 1997.

After a 3-4 start, Peyton Manning was able to shake a knee injury and lead the Indianapolis Colts to a 9 game winning streak, during which Manning was 209 for 290 with 2,248 yards and 17 touchdowns. He only threw 3 interceptions during that winning streak. 2008 was Manning’s ninth 4,000 yards season. He threw for a total of 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

When looking at the MVP voting, there are certainly several qualified candidates. Chad Pennington has remade his image by leading the Dolphins in one of the biggest turn around seasons in NFL history. Michael Turner also helped the Atlanta Falcons come back from a disastrous 2007 to make the playoffs.

With numerous players making strong cases, Peyton Manning clearly eclipsed them all. Manning earned the MVP award for this season emphatically. His comeback from injury showed the true class he has. This will not be the last MVP award for Peyton Manning.

Given Manning’s astounding success with the Colts this year, it is no surprise that he is a hot commodity in the acting world as well. Here is a clip of Manning in the role that truly defined him as a method actor, as he plays an older quarterback who still has an eye for shenanigans and general tomfoolery.

With performances like this, it is certain that Manning will be able to soon add an Oscar to his trophy case. Is there anything this MVP cannot do.