Fantasy Football Tip of the Day: Don’t be scared about Jamaal Charles

I’ve heard a lot of grumbling about whether or not Jamaal Charles is really a stud fantasy RB in 2010 because he now must compete with Thomas Jones for touches. Heck, I’ve even wondered about it myself.

This morning, I’m here to tell you to stop the grumbling.

First of all, consider that Charles was already a stud last year and he only had 190 carries. It’s what he did with those 190 carries that matters, and Charles certainly made the most of them, finishing the season with 1,120 yards (a sterling 5.9 yard average) and 7 TDs. He also – importantly – tacked on 40 receptions for an additional 297 yards and another TD.

So that’s 1,400+ total yards and 8 TDs. By way of comparison, DeAngelo Williams had about 1,375 total yards and 7 TDs last year with almost 3o more carries.

And remember, Charles didn’t even start getting consistent touches until Week 10. Before that game against Oakland, Charles had not carried the ball more than six times in a single game. From Week 10 on, he never carried it less than 14 times and finished the season with 20, 25, 24, and 25 carries in consecutive weeks. That, of course, is when he exploded.

If you take Charles’ Week 10-17 performance and extrapolate it over an entire season, you’d get 1,936 yards on 322 carries…which is just ridiculous production. But that’s how good Charles was during the season’s second half last year. No one really expects Charles to get that many touches, especially with Jones in the picture, but he certainly will remain a featured part of the Chiefs’ offense.

Let’s say that Charles carries the ball 17 times per game, a reasonable and conservative estimate. His career average is 5.7 yards per carry, which he almost certainly will not maintain, but let’s say he averages a modest 4.5. That’s still 1,224 yards. If he tacks on another 40-50 receptions, which he almost certainly will, that’s another 300-400 yards. Assuming he gets 8-10 touchdowns, another modest assumption, you’re talking about a back who eclipses 1,500 yards and with 8-10 TDs.

That’s easily 2nd round material at a position as tough and competitive as running back – and it’s worst-case-scenario type stuff. Based on what we saw last year, Charles has the talent to get 1,500+ rushing yards even without toting the rock 300 times.

I know that people are worried Thomas Jones will steal some of Charles’ thunder this year, but I would not be overly concerned about it. While Jones was monstrous in his own right last year, he is 32 years old and approaching the inevitable running back cliff. At this point in his career, he is best served by accepting a reduced role and excelling in it, especially coming off of a 331-carry season.

The Chiefs will be better on offense this year than people think (Charlie Weis baby!), and I believe there will be plenty of scoring opportunities for Charles to be a solid #2 RB or even a #1 guy if you go QB or WR in Round 1. I also think Jones will have some flex value getting 10-12 touches per game and the occasional score.

But do not – I repeat do not - downgrade Jamaal Charles because Thomas Jones is around.

In fact, consider this: the knock on Charles has always been his size, leading to people questioning whether or not he can take a pounding. Well, having Jones around means Charles won’t have to carry 300+ times, which should theoretically keep him fresher and mitigate the risk of injury. A reasonable argument could be made that the presence of Jones actually increases Charles’ value. It’s counter-intuitive, I know. But you don’t win fantasy leagues by just following the herd of groupthink all the time.

Final thought: Teams know that they need two competent RBs in this day and age, but the fresher, more talented legs almost always win out. Jamaal Charles clearly has both, and he is in line to pick up right where he left off in 2009.