What the Rangers need to do to make the playoffs

Take a look at the MLB standings today and you will see the Texas Rangers tied for the American League Wild Card berth with the Boston Red Sox. Both teams own a record of 62-48.

Each team has 52 games remaining on its schedule; third-place team Tampa Bay sits 1.5 games out with a record of 61-50.

Needless to say, the American League Wild Card is going to be a tight race down the stretch. However, the difference between the Rangers and the two East division teams is that the Rangers still have a chance at winning the division. Texas sits only 3.5 games behind the Angels while the Red Sox sit 6.5 games behind the Yanks with Tampa 8 games back.

So barring a collapse by the Yankees, the AL East race is all but over, especially after the beatdown the Bombers laid on the Nation this past weekend.

Baseball Prospectus has their postseason odds (updated today) right here. The Rangers currently have a 34.75% chance of making the playoffs according to the report, with all but 11% of that to winning the division.

The average number of wins listed on the report for the AL Wild Card is about 92. That means the Wild Card winner will have a record around 92-70. For what it’s worth, the report lists the average number of wins for the AL West winner at 93. In 2004, the last time the Rangers were relevant in the month of September, the Angels won the division with a 92-70 record.

So, for the sake of argument, let’s say that 92 wins will get the Rangers into the playoffs. What will that take?

30-22.

For the Rangers to win 92 games this year, they need to go eight games over .500 the rest of the way.

I’ve already linked to the full Rangers and Angels schedule here, but here’s a look at who’s left for the Wild Card teams:

Rangers (62-48):

6 @ Cleveland (3-0 vs. CLE in ’09)

3 vs. Boston (5-1)

7 vs. Minnesota (4 home, 3 away) (1-2)

6 vs. Tampa Bay (3 home, 3 away) (3-0)

3 @ New York (2-4)

4 vs. Toronto (2-4)

3 @ Baltimore (4-3)

6 vs. Seattle (3 home, 3 away) (9-4)

7 vs. Oakland (3 home, 4 away) (6-6)

7 vs. Los Angeles (3 home, 4 away) (9-3)

A pretty tough slate of teams right there, but not impossible. Toronto is very up and down, and Minnesota seems to be slipping. The A’s have been very pesky for the Rangers this year, so if they can win 5 of those 7, that would really help things. With the next ten against Cleveland, Boston and Minnesota, Texas has to find a way to win seven of those to get to 69-51 before the season-defining three city road trip.

Rays (61-50):

3 @ Los Angeles (2-1)

9 vs. Toronto (6 home, 3 away) (7-2)

11 vs. Baltimore (7 home, 4 away) (3-4)

6 vs. Texas (3 home, 3 away) (0-3)

7 vs. Detroit (3 home, 4 away) (0-0)

6 vs. Boston (3 home, 3 away) (8-4)

7 vs. New York (3 home, 4 away) (5-6)

2 vs. Seattle (2-4)

Another tough slate – made tougher because of all the games within the division, although 11 against Baltimore should help. Tampa has dominated Toronto this year even though Toronto’s really not that bad of a team. The Jays’ run differential indicates they should have a much better record than they should, but Tampa has owned them so far. Six against Boston and the Rangers will go a long way to determining where they end up though.

Red Sox (62-48):

4 vs. Detroit (3-0)

3 @ Texas (1-5)

9 vs. Toronto (6 home, 3 away) (5-4)

6 vs. New York (3 home, 3 away) (8-4)

8 vs. Chicago (4 home, 4 away) (0-0)

6 vs. Tampa Bay (3 home, 3 away) (4-8)

5 vs. Baltimore (2 home, 3 away) (11-2)

3 vs. Los Angeles (2-4)

4 @ Kansas City (3-1)

4 vs. Cleveland (3-2)

A lot of games against some tough opponents, including 6+ against four pretty solid teams in Toronto, Chicago, New York and Tampa. The Angels, Rangers and Tigers all remain for the Red Sox as well, so things are going to be tough for the Nation if they don’t pull out of their recent offensive funk.

(Ed. Note: This analysis was written before Monday’s games, in which Boston defeated Detroit 6-5 to take a .5 game lead in the WC race and Tampa fell to the Angels 8-7 to fall 2 games back. Seattle beat Chicago 6-4 to remain 4.5 games behind.)