Will the Rangers fade?
That’s the question on everyone’s mind. After completing the “first half” of the season at 48-39, the Rangers have surprised just about everyone (including myself). So of course the next question is, will they follow it up? Right now, the Rangers are in the thick of the race, 2 games behind the Angels (after the Halos won last night), but the media has been relatively split on whether the Rangers have a real shot at this thing.
Dan Plesac, Mitch Williams, and John Hart all picked the Rangers to win the AL West on MLB Network’s Midseason Report Cards earlier this week, but it should be mentioned that Mitch Williams and John Hart do kind of have Rangers ties. So that should probably be taken with a grain of salt. Still, looking around the internet reveals that the Rangers aren’t really being written off yet, which is encouraging.
ESPN’s Buster Olney, however, brought up an interesting point about the Rangers and why it might be tough for them to make a run: the schedule.
Yesterday, Buster Olney ranked the roads to the playoffs for nine AL “contenders.” The Rangers were 9th, with what Olney argued as the toughest road. Minnesota, the Rangers’ opponent this weekend, had the easiest remaining schedule.
Seattle, currently 5 games out of first in the AL West, had the third easiest schedule, while the division-leading Angels were fifth.
So let’s take a brief look at the Rangers’ schedule. To look at the complete Rangers schedule, go here, and for the Mariners, here, and Angels here.
Rangers (48-39):
July – 11 home, 3 away
August – 10 home, 19 away
September/October – 15 home, 17 away
If the Rangers are going to be in this race, they need to prove it for the rest of this month. 11 home games, and the three away are at Kansas City. Anything short of 9-5 probably won’t be good enough.
August is going to be key. For the Rangers to do anything, they’ll have to tread water through the month. But I think the high number of road games can only benefit them. Only ten home games in the August heat? Surely that will help the pitchers. The biggest test will be a nine game trip through Tampa Bay, New York and Minnesota. If the Rangers can get through that with a 4-5 or 5-4 record, they will be firmly in the hunt.
September and October feature a ton of divisional matchups, which should favor the Rangers. After a couple of home games against Toronto, a quick six-game road trip to Baltimore and Cleveland needs to be a winning one to get the month out on the right foot. After that is a nine-game home stand against all three divisional opponents (needs to be 6-3 at the absolute worst, 7-2 would be preferred).
The season ends tough, with 11 of the final 14 contests on the road, but the Rangers have done well in the division this year, posting an 18-8 record against divisional opponents.
August probably won’t be a pretty month for the Rangers. The key is making the rest of July pretty and September nice. The Angels’ schedule ramps up in September – the Rangers may be a few games out when September starts, but if they’re within three or four of the Angels, I think the Rangers have an excellent chance to take the crown.
Personally, I think this team is going to do it. They are saying all the right things, they believe in themselves and they play hard. Of course, these don’t show up in the box score, but I think the Rangers will be fine there too. The bats are due to carry this team for a little while, but the pitching isn’t going anywhere. Neftali Feliz is going to be a boon for this team; shades of K-Rod in 2002. Decent starting pitching, a good bullpen, a good defense and a good offense. That’s how the Rangers will get it done.
The next couple of weeks need to be good ones though: we should know pretty soon if the Rangers are going to make this an exciting ride.
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